Terence Crawford vs. Errol Spence finally goes down in our main boxing betting attraction of the week. In addition to the undisputed welterweight title, bragging rights to being the best of this generation are on the line ahead of their July 29 clash from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Crawford and Spence have beaten all challengers, finally putting the politics of boxing behind them to put together the most impactful fight the sport has seen since Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao.
Boxing odds indicate Crawford is set to narrowly outpace Spence as a -150 favorite, and Spence is an underdog for the first time in his career at +120.
Check out my free betting picks for Crawford vs. Spence before the bell rings this Saturday, July 29.
Errol Spence Jr. vs Terence Crawford odds
| Method of victory | Errol Spence Jr. | Terence Crawford |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | +120 | -150 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +500 | +270 |
| Win by points or decision | +225 | +180 |
| Draw | +1,400 | +1,400 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of July 29, 2023.
Errol Spence Jr. vs Terence Crawford betting predictions
Picks made on July 26. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Errol Spence Jr. vs Terence Crawford betting preview
Terence Crawford is making the seventh defense of his WBO welterweight title reign and is getting the big fight he has been chasing for several years. “Bud” has been a staple at the top of the boxing pound-for-pound lists since winning his first world title at lightweight, and he’s just one step away from solidifying his status as an all-time great in this undisputed title fight.
We’ve seen a little bit of everything from Terence Crawford. He’s a great two-way fighter who is equally effective at stalking as he is countering, can switch seamlessly between southpaw and orthodox, and is a violent finisher. Crawford’s December 2022 knockout victim, David Avenesyan, was his 10th straight stoppage.
Spence is the reigning and defending WBC, WBA, and IBF champion. The sensational Texan fought his way to the top of the welterweight division, long establishing himself as the man to beat alongside Crawford. He scored notable wins against the likes of Kell Brook, Mikey Garcia, Shawn Porter, and Yordenis Ugas.
As smooth of an operator as there is, Spence is a power boxer who uses crafty angles, footwork, and a great jab to mask his offense. Spence is a complete fighter in every sense of the word, and like Crawford, there hasn’t been a fighter that shows this much proficiency in so many areas at welterweight in a very long time.
Errol Spence Jr. vs Terence Crawford boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Terence Crawford ML
These two are virtually inseparable based on their intangibles alone. Spence is the bigger fighter, but Crawford is the better overall tactician. Spence beat better versions of their common opponents (Brook and Porter), but Crawford defeated them more conclusively. So what possibly could separate these two warriors to the point where I can make a comfortable pick?
The answer boils down to killer instinct, and that edge goes to Crawford. A knock against Spence is that he’s willing to outbox his opponents, even if he’s outclassing them. We saw that in the Garcia fight, and he didn’t show a real sense of urgency against Porter or Ugas until they hurt him. Crawford is one of boxing’s best finishers, and he seldom sits back and gives his opponents a chance to recover.
A lot of this goes down to how the first four rounds play out. Crawford is a slow starter and gives away the early rounds to make adjustments, which means Spence might be slightly ahead by the midpoint of the fight.
This will be a closely contested bout to the end, but I’m going with Crawford to edge Spence out in a great fight.
Prediction: Terence Crawford moneyline (-150 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Terence Crawford by decision
Neither Spence nor Crawford have been decked or hurt too badly during their respective runs. This won't devolve into a brawl, rather a high-stakes boxing match where Spence will likely be trying to slow Crawford’s timing down with clinches and mixing up his offense. Crawford is better at transitioning between offense and defense, and his power carries better into the later rounds.
Though Spence will have a size advantage — and has the heavier hands — Crawford is the more precise puncher. Spence has a habit of wanting to outsmart his opponents or lull them into a trap. More often than not it works, but that lack of going for it hurts him in a big way down the stretch. Crawford comes on strong late in fights, and I don’t feel Spence is busy enough to wear Crawford down.
This is a fight that might be good enough to warrant a repeat. Even so, I’m picking Crawford’s precise punching and ability to adjust on the fly over Spence’s size, and him winning by decision as my best bet of the fight.
Prediction: Terence Crawford to win by decision (+180 at DraftKings)
