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Last2thirst Conference /Tourney Picks

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Posted: #201
Ok.....my third game watching Zion.

You have to draft him #1 on his talent and MOTOR+COMPETE.....wow

#2 is Barrett
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Posted: #202
Holy chit.....that was a big final shot from 10ft!!!

My BIGGEST PLAY OF THE YEAR!

Virginia  +3.5   (10 Units)  
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Posted: #203
Teaser: Fresno +7 / Virginia +8.5 / LSU  -4   (2x)    
            Virginia +8.5 / Boise +3 / VCU  -4.5  (1x)    


Today:

7 - 8 now   (+11 Units )
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Posted: #204
POWER    RATINGS: ....big changes today and Tiers are going to reflect my betting/tourney/ statistical and eye-test suited Top 30 teams + a group that can add betting value despite out of Top 30

TIER #1 - pedigree/style to win  it all

#1 Virginia
#2 Duke
#3 Gonzaga
#4 Tennessee

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
TIER #2 - Rank 5 - 10
 
#5 Michigan St.      #6 North Carolina
#7 Michigan            #8 Kentucky
#9 Maryland          #10 Iowa St.
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Posted: #205
TIER #3  - ranks 11 - 20 

#11 Marquette         #12 Virginia Tech        
#13 Nevada               #14 Buffalo
#15 Kansas    #16 Auburn
#17 Louisville           #18 NC State
#19 Florida St.         #20. Houston
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------    
Tier#4  Rank 21 - 30 
#21. Villanova
#22. Miss St.
#23. Nebraska
#24. Purdue
#25. Syracuse
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 TCU
Texas Tech
Ole Miss
Iowa
LSU
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Next in Line
Texas, Kansas St.  Cinci,  UCF,  Baylor, Butler,  Arizona. Washington, Arizona St., St. J, Alabama, San Fran, St. Mary's, Murray St.
  
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Posted: #206
Lets fix this....

Next in Line
Texas, Kansas St. Florida  Cinci,  UCF,  Baylor, Oklahoma, Butler,   Arizona. Washington, Arizona St., St. J, Alabama, San Fran, St. Mary's, Murray St.

Last 3 in my Top 30 are offensive teams.....with a pack of 6 grinding defensive teams right behind them ready to pounce if they are not on their toes...
  
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Posted: #207
Close the book  on the night....

7 - 10  (+6 Units)

NCAAB   SEASON NOW:      115 - 112 - 2    (+29.5 Units)
non -NCAAB plays                    4 - 2             (+5 Units)

NFL Teasers -7 pt

Pats +10  / Saints  +4/ Under Saints 64   (3 x)
Pats +10 / Over 49 Pats / Rams  +10    (2x)

Saints -3   (3x)

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Posted: #208

Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:

Holy chit.....that was a big final shot from 10ft!!!My BIGGEST PLAY OF THE YEAR!Virginia  +3.5   (10 Units)

 

Guard almost lost the ball....shot with 2 tenths left on the clock...new_moj_wow

 
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Posted: #209
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:

Close the book  on the night....

7 - 10  (+6 Units)

NCAAB   SEASON NOW:      115 - 112 - 2    (+29.5 Units)
non -NCAAB plays                    4 - 2             (+5 Units)

NFL Teasers -7 pt

Pats +10  / Saints  +4/ Under Saints 64   (3 x)
Pats +10 / Over 49 Pats / Rams  +10    (2x)

Saints -3   (3x)


Nice hit yesterday on UVA! I had them teased to +8.5 to close multiple teasers, which amounted to my biggest play of the year. I stumbled on your thread a little over a week ago and reading your older plays, we have frequently had the same bets in both NFL and ACC basektball - a few that stand out are NC State at Miami early in the mondth, Syracuse +17 last Monday, UVA both of the last two Saturdays, and New Orleans -3 and teased to +4 today.

I'm from Pittsburgh and have lived in Ohio and North Carolina, so I follow the AFC North, NFC South, ACC and Big Ten closely. it seems like you also have a good read on these teams, and I can't find many posters who play CBB teasers even though they can have definite value teasing both dogs and favorites when lines are in the upper single digits in low scoring games, exactly like UVA yesterday.

Anyway, good luck today. I'll be rooting for the Saints and Chiefs!

 
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Posted: #210
Quote Originally Posted by MudPhud3:


Nice hit yesterday on UVA! I had them teased to +8.5 to close multiple teasers, which amounted to my biggest play of the year. I stumbled on your thread a little over a week ago and reading your older plays, we have frequently had the same bets in both NFL and ACC basektball - a few that stand out are NC State at Miami early in the mondth, Syracuse +17 last Monday, UVA both of the last two Saturdays, and New Orleans -3 and teased to +4 today.

I'm from Pittsburgh and have lived in Ohio and North Carolina, so I follow the AFC North, NFC South, ACC and Big Ten closely. it seems like you also have a good read on these teams, and I can't find many posters who play CBB teasers even though they can have definite value teasing both dogs and favorites when lines are in the upper single digits in low scoring games, exactly like UVA yesterday.

Anyway, good luck today. I'll be rooting for the Saints and Chiefs!


Hey MudPhud....glad you responded again. You and another poster are featuring fossils from the Paleozoic....thats a strange coincidence because I teach Paleo-Geology...haha

I believe your picture is an Ammonite?? Or am I way off....I haven't taught it for over a year or so....have a class coming up...need to brush up. Someone else posted on my thread featuring a Trilobite from the Cambrian Period....weird coincidences.

If you are tailing me....I am playing too many plays...but making $$ because my big plays with research and gut are hitting at a high %

I will tighten up soon but its so hard on a Saturday with so many good lines in my mind

Cheers.....


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Posted: #211
Update after some Sunday Plays:

TIER #3  - ranks 11 - 20 
#11 Marquette....ready to move up if any in the #7-10 falter soon        
#
12 Virginia Tech        
#13 Nevada               #14 Buffalo

#15 Kansas    #16 Auburn
#17 Louisville           #18 NC State
#19 Florida St.         #20. Houston
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------    
Tier#4  Rank 21 - 30 
#21. Villanova
#22. Miss St.
#23. Nebraska
#24. Purdue
#25. Syracuse
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 TCU
Texas Tech
Ole Miss
Iowa.....ready to move up if others above falter
LSU
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Posted: #212
Update after some Sunday Plays:

TIER #3  - ranks 11 - 20 
#11 Marquette....ready to move up if any in the #7-10 falter soon        
#
12 Virginia Tech        
#13 Nevada               #14 Buffalo

#15 Kansas    #16 Auburn
#17 Louisville           #18 NC State
#19 Houston             #20. Villanova
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------    
Tier#4  Rank 21 - 30 
#21. Miss. St. 
#22. Nebraska
#23. Purdue
#24. Syracuse
#25. TCU
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Texas Tech
Ole Miss
Iowa.....ready to move up if others above falter
LSU
Florida St.
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Posted: #213
Doing an analysis of home Dogs winning outright and thats with teams in the top 120 approx.

Sat = 4 - 9.....did not track % cover but will now

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Posted: #214
Doing an analysis of home Dogs winning outright and thats with teams in the top 120 approx.

Monday - Friday results were  5 - 10 winning outright as home dogs....looks like we are getting a trend of about 30-33% Home dogs winning (7 of 15 covering as home dogs...

Hmmm....going to do one more week
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Posted: #215
Doing an analysis of home Dogs winning outright and thats with teams in the top 120 approx.

The week before....for Sat-Sun.....home dogs winning outright was 5-12 with 6 covering in total and this includes spreads that were pretty broad

I am thinking if the spread is +7 or even tighter....the odds of covering outright for a homedog is actually closer to 40%

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Posted: #216
I

Do the recent stratigraphy and sedimentology studies in the Northwest US show evidence that support a great deluge? A cataclysmic flood so big that it could have wiped out a highly advanced civilization around 12,800 and triggered the Younger Dryas period?   

Does the sedimentation left on the Sphinx and the Great Pyramids also point to a great flood that make them much older than we were taught in history class? 

Have you followed any of Randall Carlson's studies and theories on the above?

Are you familiar with the somewhat recent discovery of Gobeckli Tepe?

Inquiring minds want to know.

In other news: I see you have seen the light on the next #1 pick in the
 NBA Draft.

Also see you have dropped Kansas which makes you ahead of the rest.They have been overrated all along this season and you will soon be dropping them further. Their streak of 14 straight Big 12 Titles is in serious jeopardy and I don't think they win it this year. 

Now that Dean Wade and Barry Brown are back KSt can beat anyone from #12 on down. The Wildcats may be the best team team in the Big 12 now. Their D is better than the Red Raiders I don't care what the numbers say. Speaking of TX Tech, interesting that you have dropped them so far so fast.

Overall, Home dogs are 363-351-11 ats so far, 50.84%.

I could get on the site this morning so I thought I would give you a shout while I could.Traffic is light this morning. People must be hungover this morning celebrating the great officiating in the .NFL Conference Playoffs. 

I need some rest. I'll be back with some GEMS of wisdom. What do they call them in Paleo Geology? 

Ttyl




If you can't close you can't cover.
 
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Posted: #217
Quote Originally Posted by FunKyRufus:

I

Do the recent stratigraphy and sedimentology studies in the Northwest US show evidence that support a great deluge? A cataclysmic flood so big that it could have wiped out a highly advanced civilization around 12,800 and triggered the Younger Dryas period?   

Does the sedimentation left on the Sphinx and the Great Pyramids also point to a great flood that make them much older than we were taught in history class? 

Have you followed any of Randall Carlson's studies and theories on the above?

Are you familiar with the somewhat recent discovery of Gobeckli Tepe?

Inquiring minds want to know.

In other news: I see you have seen the light on the next #1 pick in the
 NBA Draft.

Also see you have dropped Kansas which makes you ahead of the rest.They have been overrated all along this season and you will soon be dropping them further. Their streak of 14 straight Big 12 Titles is in serious jeopardy and I don't think they win it this year. 

Now that Dean Wade and Barry Brown are back KSt can beat anyone from #12 on down. The Wildcats may be the best team team in the Big 12 now. Their D is better than the Red Raiders I don't care what the numbers say. Speaking of TX Tech, interesting that you have dropped them so far so fast.

Overall, Home dogs are 363-351-11 ats so far, 50.84%.

I could get on the site this morning so I thought I would give you a shout while I could.Traffic is light this morning. People must be hungover this morning celebrating the great officiating in the .NFL Conference Playoffs. 

I need some rest. I'll be back with some GEMS of wisdom. What do they call them in Paleo Geology? 

Ttyl





Funk.....tectonic activity will not stop but if you really want to blow your mind , you should watch videos showing contintental drift over 3.3 million years and see that pieces of our continent have been to the north, south poles....touched pieces of every continent and yes, most of the midwest was underwater in a shallow ancient sea that disappeared from various warming/drying periods on earth...I can go on and on....we are just passengers on the earth and only here for just over a second of its Geological physical processes and formations....ha

Now onto b-ball. Duke game was a preview of one of those teams likely in the final at the big dance. I would like to see either one play Zags because I have always been a closet fan of that team and Few's coaching
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Posted: #218
Funk....gems of wisdom would be zircons.....we need to find these to properly date the rock material that existed the Great Bombardment period of the earth when we grew from about 1/10 our present size to close to our full size now.....everything would have incinerated except certain crystals that could contain early 'specks' of uranium that we can radiometrically date to get timelines...

Ok....enough about that......if you or anyone saw my first posts on any rating....I had K.STATE very high and KANSAS as over-rated early.....and TTECH gets dropped when you have 3 conference losses in a week or so because it goes to show what the mental part of these teams are when they get to the BIG DANCE and I do not even ever glance at any ESPN TOP 25 or other....

I use statitistical analysis, coaching, ages of teams and general matchup strengths to form my opinions and I am not going to lie....Jeff Sagarin helps with some initial ground saving work.

The question that needs to be constantly asked are.....

Who has explosive upside in the NCAA tourney?
Who has discipline to play defense and hit crucial FTs or get RBs at crunch time?
Who can win/keep close the tough road game matchup?

To my mind, I am slowly adding to my list......
Louisville
Kentucky
UNC
Sparty
Virginia......notice I haven't put Duke in but I will if I can see them go into Virginia or UNC and beat them there
Gonzaga
Maryland
Wisconsin
Tennessee
......maybe Iowa St. tonight
Marquette
NC State
Syracuse

And missing a few likely but all of these teams have showed me this and more......Louisville has done it the most....they are my sleeper!!!.....and Maryland a little.....

Last year it was Indiana and Iowa St.



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Posted: #219
non -NCAAB plays                    6 - 3             (+7 Units)

NFL Teasers -7 pt

Pats +10  / Saints  +4/ Under Saints 64   (3 x) 
Pats +10 / Over 49 Pats / Rams  +10    (2x)   

Saints -3   (3x)  

Plays tonight:

Iowa St.  +5.5   (1x)
Maryland +8.5  (1x)

Teaser:   Charlotte +12.5/ Sparty -3.5 / UNC  +0.5   (2x)
              Iowa St. +10.5 / Maryland +13.5 / VTECH +9.5   (1x)
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Posted: #220
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:

non -NCAAB plays                    6 - 3             (+7 Units)

NFL Teasers -7 pt

Pats +10  / Saints  +4/ Under Saints 64   (3 x) 
Pats +10 / Over 49 Pats / Rams  +10    (2x)   

Saints -3   (3x)  

Plays tonight:

Iowa St.  +5.5   (1x)
Maryland +8.5  (1x)

Teaser:   Charlotte +12.5/ Sparty -3.5 / UNC  +0.5   (2x)
              Iowa St. +10.5 / Maryland +13.5 / VTECH +9.5   (1x)

I like the Maryland and UNC plays tonight, although I think I am taking both ATS vs teasing. Good luck, I hope you catch that middle!

By the way, nice NFL plays yesterday - Pats teased up was absolutely the play of the week. I did naively think that my Chiefs straight and teased plays were winners for a few minutes late, then all at once both crashed and burned.

And re: my avatar. I'm a medical student, researcher, and huge science/math nerd, which explains the ammonite-shaped money pattern. A very astute observation on your part . 
 
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Posted: #221
Quote Originally Posted by MudPhud3:


I like the Maryland and UNC plays tonight, although I think I am taking both ATS vs teasing. Good luck, I hope you catch that middle!

By the way, nice NFL plays yesterday - Pats teased up was absolutely the play of the week. I did naively think that my Chiefs straight and teased plays were winners for a few minutes late, then all at once both crashed and burned.

And re: my avatar. I'm a medical student, researcher, and huge science/math nerd, which explains the ammonite-shaped money pattern. A very astute observation on your part . 

Please.............nerd away all you want on my thread! Funk is a nerd and I am a nerd....haha

I teach gifted students so nerd away all you like.....they shake their head at me....call me a nerd and a jock....and little do they know I love all kinds of music but especially Metal and Reggae
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Posted: #222
This UNC team.....honestly.....go down 10 pts and now up by 8. No fear in them....disclaimer, I was a Duke fan for years after MJ left
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Posted: #223
what a way to finish the first half for unc. jeeze. just deflating for vtech
 
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Posted: #224
VTECH is a really good team....just like Maryland but I think people can see why I have UNC so highly ranked Top 6 team for me all year

Top Dog team all year is Louisville and they beat UNC 
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Posted: #225
TIER #2 - Rank 5 - 10
 
#5 Michigan St.      #6 North Carolina
#7 Michigan            #8 Kentucky
#9 Marquette             #10 Nevada

TIER #3  - ranks 11 - 20 
#11  Iowa St.               
#
12 Buffalo       
#13 Kansas               #14 Auburn
#15 Louisville    #16 Maryland
#17 NC State            #18 VTECH
#19 Houston             #20. Villanova
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------    
Tier#4  Rank 21 - 30 
#21. Miss. St. 
#22. Purdue
#23. Syracuse
#24. TCU
#25. Iowa
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Texas Tech
Ole Miss
LSU
Texas
Florida St.

Next in Line
Kansas St.  Cinci,  UCF,  Butler,  Arizona. Baylor, Nebraska Washington, Arizona St.,  St. J, Alabama, San Fran, St. Mary's, Murray St.
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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