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NIT/CBI/CIT Plays

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Posted: #51
Thanks guys.

Wednesday:

UC-Santa Barbara @ Idaho +1 (1 unit)
Bowling Green +4 @ Oakland (1 unit)
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by Jaysvdubwhat:

just curious what do you see in bowling green?


The more interested team. It's their first postseason appearance since 2009 and no player on the roster, other than Scott Thomas, has ever played in a postseason game. They're legitimately excited to still be playing after a couple of bad years as Louis Orr seems to have gotten the program back on track. Oakland has been in the NCAA tournament the past two seasons, and while several of the current players were not there for those games (particularly the 2010 appearance), the overall excitement around the program is very low. A CIT appearance on the heels of consecutive NCAA tournament games is not going to thrill anyone. It's also a matchup challenge given the way Bowling Green plays. They shoot very few threes, which means limited number of runout opportunities for the fast-paced Grizzlies. BGSU scores a ton of its points in the paint, where Oakland lacks size and strength. They have zero shotblocking presence and will not put pressure on the ball to force turnovers. Sure, Hamilton will get his, but I'll take the balanced Bowling Green attack against the one-man show.
 
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Posted: #53
Bucknell +8 @ Arizona (1 unit)

Leans:
Minny/La Salle Over 138, American +3, Delaware +10

 
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Posted: #54

Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:



The more interested team. It's their first postseason appearance since 2009 and no player on the roster, other than Scott Thomas, has ever played in a postseason game. They're legitimately excited to still be playing after a couple of bad years as Louis Orr seems to have gotten the program back on track. Oakland has been in the NCAA tournament the past two seasons, and while several of the current players were not there for those games (particularly the 2010 appearance), the overall excitement around the program is very low. A CIT appearance on the heels of consecutive NCAA tournament games is not going to thrill anyone. It's also a matchup challenge given the way Bowling Green plays. They shoot very few threes, which means limited number of runout opportunities for the fast-paced Grizzlies. BGSU scores a ton of its points in the paint, where Oakland lacks size and strength. They have zero shotblocking presence and will not put pressure on the ball to force turnovers. Sure, Hamilton will get his, but I'll take the balanced Bowling Green attack against the one-man show.

Very interesting dichotomy indeed based on the fact that BG is ranked 7th nationally with over 61% of their points coming from 2PA, yet don't get to the FT line at all (#338 FTA/FGA)

GL 

 
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Posted: #55
 
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Posted: #56
Can't fault you for taking Bucknell in this spot. Zona will still be 'recovering' from their chokejob in the Pac12 tourney and spot in the Dance that was put on a silver platter for them.... 

Will probably have a max-unit bet on Buck 1H. 

However, once Zona realizes their season could potentially end, I can see them getting fired up in the 2H for a comeback win and will almost for sure be on Zona 2H. 

 
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Posted: #57
Thanks for the Bowling Green/Oakland insight, much appreciated. I do, however, disagree on the Zona play. Arizona has 3 seniors (Fogg, Perry, Lavender) who still have something to play for. While Bucknell has a good defense, Zona also had one of the top D's in the Pac-12. Arizona can't match the size of Bucknell's big man Muscala, but they did a good job neutralizing UCLA's size in their last two matchups with them. I see Zona winning this game by 10 points. 
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by ZonaCats:

Can't fault you for taking Bucknell in this spot. Zona will still be 'recovering' from their chokejob in the Pac12 tourney and spot in the Dance that was put on a silver platter for them.... 

Will probably have a max-unit bet on Buck 1H. 

However, once Zona realizes their season could potentially end, I can see them getting fired up in the 2H for a comeback win and will almost for sure be on Zona 2H. 

I think the first half play might be a very good strategy.

 
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Posted: #59
AWESOME CARD LAST NIGHT I TAILED YOU..."GO-GO-GO"
 
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Posted: #60
Any reason you boys dont win SU up tonight? I dont think NIU can hang on the road. Would like to parlay that ML with some other tonight.

Nice work yesterday
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Any reason you boys dont win SU up tonight? I dont think NIU can hang on the road. Would like to parlay that ML with some other tonight.

Nice work yesterday


I can see a loss if we have a bad shooting night against the pack man-to-man as that defense has caused problems this year. And maybe if UNI is stroking it from deep. But this is really a huge athletic mismatch as UNI hasn't seen frontcourt athletes of this caliber since it played Iowa in December. According to their fans, they struggle mightily against shotblockers, so I don't know how they will deal with C.J. Aiken (#4 nation). If our guys are interested, and it seems they are, a win seems reasonable.
 
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Posted: #62
 
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Posted: #63
You must have something on ID.,as they are now -1.5,still like them giving points?
UCSB has a local boy on their team,was hoping for them to get a win,no one thinks so its looking.
 
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Posted: #64
3/14 Current Card
Minnesota @ La Salle Over 138.5 (1 unit)
UC-Santa Barbara @ Idaho +1 (1 unit)
Bowling Green +4 @ Oakland (1 unit)
Bucknell +8 @ Arizona (1 unit)
(Prop) Rodney Williams Over 8.5 Reb/Ast (-120) 0.5 units

Only other possible add is Delaware. Might do something in-game with Cal/South Florida if an opportunity presents itself.
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

You must have something on ID.,as they are now -1.5,still like them giving points?
UCSB has a local boy on their team,was hoping for them to get a win,no one thinks so its looking.


This is purely situational for me. Santa Barbara has a team loaded with seniors that played in two consecutive NCAA tournaments. They just played Long Beach on Saturday for the third straight year in the Big West title game and now turn around three days later for a long trip up from the beaches of sunny Southern California to gloomy Moscow, Idaho to play in a tournament most of them have probably never even heard of. Idaho probably had bigger aspirations, too, but it's not like their guys are accustomed to postseason play. If Johnson, Nunnally, and Serna decide they really want to win this game, then yeah, they probably do. But I'll take my chances that the effort just isn't there tonight for the Gauchos.
 
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Posted: #66
im confused please clarufy. you dont expect gauchos to make an effort but you are picking +1.5.
 
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Posted: #67
or you dont expect idaho to make an effort against gauchos?
 
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Posted: #68
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by JBecks12:

im confused please clarufy. you dont expect gauchos to make an effort but you are picking +1.5.


I'm on Idaho +1. As with all of my plays, the number is next to the side I am picking.
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:



I'm on Idaho +1. As with all of my plays, the number is next to the side I am picking.


Thanks and GL. Because the line has switched it threw me off.
 
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Posted: #71
JFen I was hoping you were on La Salle -2.5 as I was looking to make a big play on it. Do you have any opinions on this game besides the total?
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by JBecks12:

im confused please clarufy. you dont expect gauchos to make an effort but you are picking +1.5.


I thought what he said was pretty clear.  He believes UCSB won't be up for the game so he is taking Idaho and got them at +1.
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by Aztec_Alex:

JFen I was hoping you were on La Salle -2.5 as I was looking to make a big play on it. Do you have any opinions on this game besides the total?


I do lean to La Salle. Do a Google image search of  "Tom Gola Arena" and try and picture a Big Ten team adjusting to that 8th grade facility. Gonna be tough. Aesthetics aside, I like La Salle's chances provided they don't get completely destroyed on the inside by Williams/Sampson. The Explorers shoot extremely well at home and have a whole bunch of scoring options on the perimeter. They are certainly going to be jacked up to be playing a meaningful postseason game at home on ESPN2 against a Big Ten opponent.
 
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Posted: #74
Thanks for the response Jfen, MUCH appreciated! 
 
 
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Posted: #75

I see they shoot the 3 ball well and are over 48% at home in FG and shoot FT well. Tubby has been using a zone lately and has been sucessful with that. Do you think that will be harmful to Lasalle perimeter game? I think given the teams Lasalle has played they are going to give up some points is 71-68 enough? I believe Minny has found some recent success with Hollins 3 ball and complete game and I know Welch can drain 3's and Williams should be pumped as well as Sampson. Remember they got shut out last year.

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