Play #1 -Tarleton/FIU Under 143.5 x 1U - both teams held down from scoring in the first game and both will be focused to get that all important win under their belt
-FIU on a 6 -0 over run BUT, in this matchup, I want to fade it as I see one side maybe scoring over 70 and the other side in the 60's given their last two games and the focus in this one, that I suspect.
-Tarleton 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games so I suspect when shots start to clang or the FIU defense will hold them on the home court, you just might see them lose confidence
Play #2 - Will always be a Teaser Double Up system > teaser pays x 0.72 profit (lose and my Teaser next time becomes 2U play and so on) using a friend's system Total play but teased for 5 pts for insurance!
1U 5pt Teaser > UNDER 159.5 Pepperdine with OVER 142.5 SF Dons (who should score 90 no issue and StFra 50-60)
Won't play the teaser every night ....GL
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
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Today's Plays:
Play #1 -Tarleton/FIU Under 143.5 x 1U - both teams held down from scoring in the first game and both will be focused to get that all important win under their belt
-FIU on a 6 -0 over run BUT, in this matchup, I want to fade it as I see one side maybe scoring over 70 and the other side in the 60's given their last two games and the focus in this one, that I suspect.
-Tarleton 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games so I suspect when shots start to clang or the FIU defense will hold them on the home court, you just might see them lose confidence
Play #2 - Will always be a Teaser Double Up system > teaser pays x 0.72 profit (lose and my Teaser next time becomes 2U play and so on) using a friend's system Total play but teased for 5 pts for insurance!
1U 5pt Teaser > UNDER 159.5 Pepperdine with OVER 142.5 SF Dons (who should score 90 no issue and StFra 50-60)
I just realized, I was counting all games as OV that did not have a line but were noted as OVER results, despite any score in the game.THEREFORE,the OVER trend is NOT as pronounced as I thought.....
I just realized, I was counting all games as OV that did not have a line but were noted as OVER results, despite any score in the game.THEREFORE,the OVER trend is NOT as pronounced as I thought.....
Posted Over plays still running well over 55%. Yesterday they went 13-8
I am watching and accumulating data. My first attempt at making some plays were no good since I need more data before I make some moves......hope to have a play soon. Analytics worked in NCAAF, and I will be damned if I make the major of my bet 'feel plays'
Posted Over plays still running well over 55%. Yesterday they went 13-8
I am watching and accumulating data. My first attempt at making some plays were no good since I need more data before I make some moves......hope to have a play soon. Analytics worked in NCAAF, and I will be damned if I make the major of my bet 'feel plays'
Something I am noticing.....in the Totals Zone of 145 - 156 is where I seem to be hitting more UNDERs and especially closer to the 145 number.....BUT, if a total was set from 130 - 140, there tended to be more OVERS
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
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Something I am noticing.....in the Totals Zone of 145 - 156 is where I seem to be hitting more UNDERs and especially closer to the 145 number.....BUT, if a total was set from 130 - 140, there tended to be more OVERS
GL hope it works well for ya i have never used trends like that, but if it works for ya gl
Until I get data for analytics, I tend to run this sort of thing because it pays off once I get to Conference schedule....Non Conference, you tend to see overs from lack of game film and just general tendencies to be less attentive on defense and block out
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
0
Quote Originally Posted by RUM151:
GL hope it works well for ya i have never used trends like that, but if it works for ya gl
Until I get data for analytics, I tend to run this sort of thing because it pays off once I get to Conference schedule....Non Conference, you tend to see overs from lack of game film and just general tendencies to be less attentive on defense and block out
November Play #4 - UCLA- Gonzaga Under 139.5 x 1 U
-both teams can play defense and Marquette-UCLA only put up 140 and Marq has a better offense than Zaga....
-both teams are using clock and sets to open shots at a high rate but not using the 3pt as well
- some bragging rights on the west coast are up for grabs here so I expect an intense game and tight play, with benches being used to infuse energy and defensive zest
- I see a score around the 68 mark at the most ....something like 68 - 65 type of score....and if one gets to 70 - 72 pt total, the other will likely be 4-5 pts away from this number so 72 - 68 at the worst and likely, 72 - 67 worse case because of so so 3 pt shooting which usually helps one side to claw back late
.....will have 1-2 more later but needed to get this one in before she drops 1-2 more points I figure
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
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November Play #4 - UCLA- Gonzaga Under 139.5 x 1 U
-both teams can play defense and Marquette-UCLA only put up 140 and Marq has a better offense than Zaga....
-both teams are using clock and sets to open shots at a high rate but not using the 3pt as well
- some bragging rights on the west coast are up for grabs here so I expect an intense game and tight play, with benches being used to infuse energy and defensive zest
- I see a score around the 68 mark at the most ....something like 68 - 65 type of score....and if one gets to 70 - 72 pt total, the other will likely be 4-5 pts away from this number so 72 - 68 at the worst and likely, 72 - 67 worse case because of so so 3 pt shooting which usually helps one side to claw back late
.....will have 1-2 more later but needed to get this one in before she drops 1-2 more points I figure
Will release updated high updated OV/Under teams each 7 -14 days
Most of my plays or sides will be dictated by those trends and also overlays by Vegas on top games
- I didn't post, but got +4.5 shortly after Tennessee and Purdue opened and a sprinkle on ML
- I also played Marquette +3.5 and ML too ...them and Tenn and UCONN are my teams to lean on based on who is back, coaching style of systems and ability to shut down opposition with fundamentals from coaching. I see them getting +3 or more, I will likely insta bet those plays and ML until things change. Houston is the other team I like to lean on but need to watch them and get a feel more for this year's team
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
0
Will release updated high updated OV/Under teams each 7 -14 days
Most of my plays or sides will be dictated by those trends and also overlays by Vegas on top games
- I didn't post, but got +4.5 shortly after Tennessee and Purdue opened and a sprinkle on ML
- I also played Marquette +3.5 and ML too ...them and Tenn and UCONN are my teams to lean on based on who is back, coaching style of systems and ability to shut down opposition with fundamentals from coaching. I see them getting +3 or more, I will likely insta bet those plays and ML until things change. Houston is the other team I like to lean on but need to watch them and get a feel more for this year's team
November Play #5 - Stanford - Arkansas Over 153.5 x 2U
- one thing is certain when you look at Stanford, they don't play defense and rely on their offense to out shoot other opponents and a team like Arkansas will get into the spirit of this type of game, because they can score at a 41+ FG% ......should make this a cover to 130 - 140 alone and now the question becomes, how many 3 pters will be made if success is happening under the open and in open spaces?
- I say 8-10 3 pts....if on the low end even, this should cover with both teams terrible at 3 pt defense and if their shots are off, the rebounding stats support my notion they will allow a lot of put backs and short range jumpers
Neutral site does not matter in this one based on their attention to defensive details.... I like this one a lot
Proving is truth. Talk is cheap.
0
November Play #5 - Stanford - Arkansas Over 153.5 x 2U
- one thing is certain when you look at Stanford, they don't play defense and rely on their offense to out shoot other opponents and a team like Arkansas will get into the spirit of this type of game, because they can score at a 41+ FG% ......should make this a cover to 130 - 140 alone and now the question becomes, how many 3 pters will be made if success is happening under the open and in open spaces?
- I say 8-10 3 pts....if on the low end even, this should cover with both teams terrible at 3 pt defense and if their shots are off, the rebounding stats support my notion they will allow a lot of put backs and short range jumpers
Neutral site does not matter in this one based on their attention to defensive details.... I like this one a lot
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