Season Thread - Totals Mostly (some sides)

Hoping to cement some 3 out of 4 here with both 'flights' on the Exotics:

Tuesday Exotic play > HALF U each  > 5 pt teaser:

FLIGHT A. OVER Tarleton 130 with OVER A.Peay 127.5  with :   

FLIGHT B.  UNDER SEATTLE 142.5 with OVER A. Peay 127.5  with:  

1. Princeton Over 129.5 

2. Baylor/Oreg St Over 135.5

3. UC River -Mont St. Under 137  

4. Harvard- Colgate Under 142  NO!

If you peered in my thread yesterday....that was Jekyll, TODAY was Hyde ....WOW! Completely wrong and 2-3 games went completely opposite trends. It happens

Yesterday 1 - 1  (-1 Unit) << almost got the Stanford Over because of OT but I was way off and trends were contrarian all day it seemed 

-$200 Exotics 

----------------------------------Will work on Updated OVER - UNDER teams and post (.800 or better)

@Last2thirst

 All very interesting!  Do keep it going! 

L2T.......

Parlays Half U each - Boston College -3 with:

-using my mismatch hat on this one..... LOYCH is not good defending 3 pt and rebounding.....not a good combo to have when B.C. is a decent 3 pt shooting team and offensive rebounder

1. VCU Under 131.5   (0-4 UNDER)

2. Iowa/Okie OVER 157.5 (both tend to go OV) ....both like uptempo offense with lots of scoring 

BEST UNDER TEAMS SO FAR: - only .800 to 1.000 success (updated now including last night)

Towson > 0 - 6
Tex South > 0 - 5
Providence #48 > 0 - 5
Houston #1 > 1 - 5
Missouri #66 > 1 - 5
Citadel > 1 - 5
Colgate > 1 - 5
Coppin > 1 - 5
N. Arizona > 1 - 5
UCLA #35 > 0 - 4
VCU #99 > 0 - 4
Penn St. #76 > 0 - 4
Mid Tenn > 0 - 4
SFPA > 0 - 4
USF > 0 - 4
Army > 0 - 4 - 1

Mich St #22 > 1 - 4
Maryland #55 > 1 - 4
Northwest #58 > 1 - 4
Rutgers #63 > 1 - 4
Princeton #67 > 1 - 4
St Bonnie #106 > 1 - 4
San Fran > 1 - 4
W.Virginia > 1 - 4
Charleston > 1 - 4
Santa Clara > 1 - 4
Seattle > 1 - 4
Bryant > 1 - 4
Boston U > 1 - 4
Winthrop > 1 - 4
Miss Valley > 1 - 4
Drexel > 1 - 4
South Car Up > 1 - 4
SIUE > 1 - 4
St Thomas > 1 - 4
Marshall > 1 - 4

Texas Tech #46 > 0 - 3
Arizona St. #95 > 0 - 3
Charlotte > 0- 3 -1
Evansville > 0 - 3
Lafayette > 0 - 3
Montana St > 0 - 3
Wisc GrB > 0 - 3
Ball St. > 0 - 3

BEST UNDER TEAMS SO FAR: - only .800 to 1.000 success (updated now including last night)

Towson > 0 - 6
Tex South > 0 - 5
Providence #48 > 0 - 5
Houston #1 > 1 - 5
Missouri #66 > 1 - 5
Citadel > 1 - 5
Colgate > 1 - 5
Coppin > 1 - 5
N. Arizona > 1 - 5
UCLA #35 > 0 - 4
VCU #99 > 0 - 4
Penn St. #76 > 0 - 4
Mid Tenn > 0 - 4
SFPA > 0 - 4
USF > 0 - 4
Army > 0 - 4 - 1

Mich St #22 > 1 - 4
Maryland #55 > 1 - 4
Northwest #58 > 1 - 4
Rutgers #63 > 1 - 4
Princeton #67 > 1 - 4
St Bonnie #106 > 1 - 4
San Fran > 1 - 4
W.Virginia > 1 - 4
Charleston > 1 - 4
Santa Clara > 1 - 4
Seattle > 1 - 4
Bryant > 1 - 4
Boston U > 1 - 4
Winthrop > 1 - 4
Miss Valley > 1 - 4
Drexel > 1 - 4
South Car Up > 1 - 4
SIUE > 1 - 4
St Thomas > 1 - 4
Marshall > 1 - 4

Texas Tech #46 > 0 - 3
Arizona St. #95 > 0 - 3
Charlotte > 0- 3 -1
Evansville > 0 - 3
Lafayette > 0 - 3
Montana St > 0 - 3
Wisc GrB > 0 - 3
Ball St. > 0 - 3

Just realized I put one team on the wrong side of my OVER-UNDER ledger tracker

ADD >>  UCLA > 0 - 6

Best OVER teams so far coming up shortly ....

BEST OVER TEAMS updated:

James M. #87 > 6 - 0
Ark Little > 5 - 0

Kansas St #44 > 5 - 1
Northeastern > 5 - 1
Sam Houston > 5 - 1
Alcorn > 5 - 1

Washingt #65 > 4 - 0
Oreg St #164 > 4 - 0
UMASS #203 > 4 - 0
Ark Pine > 4 - 0
Tartleton > 4 - 0
Indiana St > 4 - 0
Kenn . > 4 - 0
Fresno St > 4 - 0

Pittsburgh #39 > 4 - 0 - 1
Florida #37 > 4 - 0 - 1
San D St #18 > 4 - 1
Michigan #36 > 4 - 1
Miami #33 > 4 - 1
Arkansas #29 > 4 - 1
Stanford #64 > 4 - 1
Bradley #83 > 4 - 1
Yale #76 > 4 - 1
UCF #59 > 4 - 1
Florida St #85 > 4 - 1
Kent St. #93 > 4 - 1
Temple #139 > 4 - 1
Cal Baker > 4 - 1
UTSA > 4 - 1
South Dak st > 4 - 1
ECU > 4 - 1
Harvard > 4 - 1
Albany > 4 - 1
UNLV > 4 - 1
Denver #267 > 4 - 1
Sacramen St. > 4 - 1
New Mex St. > 4 - 1
UMBC > 4 - 1
Southern > 4 - 1
Morgan St > 4 - 1
Sacred Heart > 4 - 1

Arizona St. > 3 - 0
UNC Gre > 3 - 0
Niagara > 3 - 0
Longw > 3 - 0
Wofford #251 > 3 - 0
UNC Wilm > 3 - 0
Incarnate W > 3 - 0
Maryland East > 3 - 0
Drake > 3 - 0
Troy > 3 - 0

Play #5 November -  Penn St /Butler Under 147.5 x 2 U

-Penn St an UNDER team exclusively, had their first Over game and did not win vs an OVER team and so, I suspect the coach will remind them to play their style of gritty defense and now they play a team that has excellent defensive stats. This will likely be a half court battle and unlikely to crack 142 pts 

-Butler is in top 100 vs FG and 3pt

L2T......

Its not working.... need to watch and gather more data maybe. Not a coinflip bettor. I need an edge

Back in the saddle today and think I have a couple of strong ones:

Play #1 today = Army Under 132.5 x 2U 

- I simulate this one, based on their stats and competition so far.....to come up with one team at 65 - 68 points MAYBE ...which to me implies the other team should score less than 65 so we definitely sail UNDER this total 

- my simulations have been good but just not posting plays until I have more confidence and today I do....be cautious here though

Friend play who is killing it on his total suggestions..... 20 - 5 recently in all sports

His suggestion:  OVER Harvard last night and with the total I see and what I simulate, Harvard alone should score well over 80 if they shoot the ball like they have been....and early in the shot clock...hitting 3 pters when I follow the game flow

Play #2 today - Harvard OVER 143.5 x 1U

GL today thirst 

Thanks Fuse.... I need some in-game love for my totals but the social love is equally important 

Play #3 today I am mulling ...... Mass Lowell -15.5 parlay with UNDER 149.5 ....total is too high for a team that has one of the best defensive stats in all of NCAAB and they gained it playing decent teams

-made lots of cash following this team all ready so what the hell.....making it official for x HALF U

UMASS Lowell has to play some defense next half and keep them under 24 pts....would take a 41 - 23  >> 2nd half score 

2 - 0 Totals today (+ 3 U )

0 - 1 Exotics bet (- 0.5 U)

Lets get it tomorrow or the next day and realize, you cannot force things 

Season Record > TOTALS/Sides

5 - 3  (+3 U)

Exotics = bleeding $$

Last, keep up the great work.ur one of the best in the forum.

L2T.......

Decembers PLAYS.....starting. Non -conference is transitioning to Conference play soon!

PLAY #1 - South Dakota St JackRabbits -4.5/-5 x 1U @ Towson (might buy the -5 or take -4.5 for -125)

-Towson is a defensive UNDER team but strangely, when you look at their stats, their ranks are not the greatest in FG% or 3 pt and facing a SouDST team that has played some strong teams and can put the ball in the hoop

-was looking at this game as an UNDER but see better value at -4.5 OR to use as a parlay key

-I see the Total dropping from 131.5 to 129.5 but think I like the OVER on that total....so which one is safer way to go here for a UNIT win? The way I am going in my opinion!

Play #2/3 - double play but place them separately > Arkansas Little Rock -1.5 x1 U and Over 158.5 x 1U 

-believe I can get both

-was looking at this one hard for an OVER and also like the home ATS line given the fact that Arkansas St. is not as good on the FT line and relies on the 3 pt a little too much ....but, AKLR can play the same but with better defense and FT and excellent 3pt

-check these OVER totals set on these two plays for verification, AKLR can score !

Nov 17 @ IOWA L 74-88 W 20.5   (U 173.5)
Nov 14 ALCN W 100-86 W -10      (O 154.5)

Be careful what you eat Finster! 

Welcome and just be yourself .... cheers 

UPDATED Best OV and Under team records: - updated to the end of Thurs, Nov 30

 BEST UNDER Teams:

Towson > 0 - 7 OVER
UCLA > 0 - 6
SFPA > 0 - 6
USF > 0 - 5

Providence #48 > 1 - 6
Mid Tenn > 1 - 6
Houston #1 > 1 - 6
Miss Valley > 1 - 6
SMU > 1 - 6
N. Arizona > 1 - 6
Michigan St > 1 - 6
Drexel > 1 - 6
Jacksonville St > 1 - 6
Colgate > 1 - 6
Lafayette > 1 - 6
Citadel > 1 - 6

Best OVER Teams: 

Ark Little > 7 - 0   OVER 
Northeastern > 7 - 1
Arkansas #29 > 7 - 1
Ark Pine > 6 - 0

Florida #37 > 5 - 0 -1
Kenn > 5 - 0
UNC Gre > 4 - 0

Alcorn > 6 - 1
Kansas St #44 > 6 - 1
Sam Houston > 6 - 1
Harvard > 6 - 1
Yale #76 > 6 - 1
Bradley #83 > 6 - 1
Alabama > 6 - 1
Larmar > 6 - 1
James M. #87 > 6 - 1

2 - 1 Tonight  (+1 U)

Season:

7 - 4  ( +4 U) 

- just focused on teams with certain Totals tendencies until later in the season when I get my other metrics solidified after 10-15 games, then I will focus about 50-50 on sides vs totals