Season Thread - Totals Mostly (some sides)

GRAND CANYON IS SICK!!!! To watch at both ends....wow....first time ever, I saw 2 guys stuff a dunk on both sides of the ball if you an believe it and their ally oops on offense are to near the top of the backboard...their guys all have hops !

Feeling good about my bets but have a 2nd half and St. Marys is a handful.....they beat Zaga 2 times and we all saw what Zaga did to another low loss time....destroyed them!

RESULTS: 

-Play of the Day of the remaining games $100  -110 on Colorado +3    << line has come down to +1.5

-$100 on Alabama -9.5  

-Friday Night Play: $75 on +5.5 ATS on Grand Canyon w/ $25 moneyline @+195

-$100 on Stetson-UCONN OVER 145.5 

Record ATS:  3 - 2  ( +$115 )

Exotics :   0 - 1   (-$100)

Need to lay a $200 bet tomorrow or Sunday to finish a Triple UP, hopefully successfully

-Friday Night Play: $75  on +5.5 ATS on Grand Canyon w/ $25   moneyline @+195  

Record ATS:  4 - 2  ( +$175 )

Exotics :   1 - 1   (-$52)

Need to lay a $200 bet tomorrow or Sunday to finish a Triple UP, hopefully successfully

Plugging my nose and picking the #14 seed with a zone defense that their opponent hasn't seen this year, and only had 1.5 days to prep for

TRIPLE UP FINISHER >> OAKLAND $200 -110 +6.5

-Oakland beat the #1 shooting team, the #1 3pt shooting team which usually can beat a ZONE DEFENSE 

-they don't need to rely on crazy 3pt performance but will get a good performance from all of their players

-because, NC State is ranked 208th over all defense.... better than Kentucky ...280th vs 3pt (worse than Kentucky by a lot) and 277th defensive rebounding and we saw how Oakland buzzes the rim on offense (THEY HUSTLE EVERYWHERE!)

- in my 11 separate key statistical metric comparisons.....Oakland compiled a score of 14.6, while NC St compiled an 11.8

2nd BEST PLAY OF THE DAY - Parlay $200 > Tennessee ML -270 with Gonzaga -200 pays 1.87

-Kansas in trouble and Gonzaga has tons of movement and bangs which I predict will hurt Dickinson with shoulder or he will get fouled out.....the bench for Kansas is weak and Zaga can roll players off their bench to keep pressure on the whole game while Kansas cannot....high - low and pick and roll deployed by FEW is deadly in the last 15 games of the season....it takes a disciplined and active defensive team to stop them....KANSAS is not that without their leader on the floor in communication with McCullars out

-Tennessee built their program on tenacious defense and excellent movement without the ball over a few years now....if they played a high scoring team, they could hang with them and hold them off usually in the last 5 minutes.....if they played a slow team, they could strangle them with efficiency on offense and reduce/frustrate their opponents offensive chances

-the players all know this game means a lot to Rick Barnes and will rise-focus for him and get the win

-Texas  CAN be impressive, but they need all their parts working and the other team frustrated and Tenn is bigger and smarter b-ball team all around with good control so I don't see it.....Texas beat a very athletic Col St. team who needs their shots to go down to support their defensive efforts.....TENN can manufacture scoring in so many ways and Texas will not overcome this

Forgot to mention....about NC ST offense...they love playing with their back to the basket one on one and a tight-aware zone defense can bring a lot of hands around a shot so they better be able to pass out of it and hit the 3pt or cutter and I don't think that is their game (148th best 3pt team) and 141st Offensive rebounding

-they also deploy pick and roll.....tough to do vs a zone defense!

2 other Plays to consider...... not playing yet but might do some fun upset ML parlays with each of these for $5 - $10 but not post

UNDER Oakland - NC St 147 - Oakland plays a lot of scores in the higher 130's and low 140's .....with how they might affect NC St scoring rhythm, I can see this falling into that 137-145 total zone

UNDER Texas - Tennessee 146 - Texas best chance to keep it within 5 pts the whole game is to grind this out and be tenacious and they know how to do it .....that suits Tenn too as they can grind even better than Texas if they want to

Saturday Results:

TRIPLE UP FINISHER >> OAKLAND $200 -110 +6.5  

2nd BEST PLAY OF THE DAY - Parlay $200 > Tennessee ML -270 with Gonzaga -200 pays 1.87  

Record ATS:  5- 2  ( +$175 )

Exotics :   2 - 1   (+122)

No plays on the horizon for me.....lets see if something hits me in the morning....sometimes you have to get up from the poker table every once in a while, and clear your head.

Sunday Play #1 - UNDER 148.5 Duke/JMAD $100 -110   TRIPLE UP PLAY! (if lose, next game is $200)

@Last2thirst

Good Luck today bud   

Duke is a strong defender.... JMAD is good

-Jmad's toughest opponent all year was Sparty and beat them by 3 in OT

-UNC just dismantled JMAD and I forsee Duke's athleticism and strong defense controlling clock and ball all game and think this game could end up tight but JMAD won't get easy buckets 

Felix 

WISEGUY...you are indeed luck for me....watching my play results after you appear  and I think its a strong %

Thanks amigo 

If you can believe it, I haven't come up for air in a while and socializing because I have been constantly cracking data and watching. I love NCAAB tourney and only NCAAF playoffs equals it! Maybe round 1 NHL playoffs....

Fun Play parlays > $25 on Grand Canyon +5.5  and Houston ML and Uconn Over 135.5.....and $25 ON Alabama ML and Houston ML and Yale Over 130.5

#1 pays +200

#2 pays +135

WOWZA!! Squeaked it out..... 

Sunday Play #1 - UNDER 148.5 Duke/JMAD $100 -110   TRIPLE UP PLAY! (if lose, next game is $200)  ... by a half point

Have the parlays alive and will update record later or tomorrow...

Looks like I will book the 2nd one (will change in the morning if result flips)

Fun Play parlays > $25 on Grand Canyon +5.5  and Houston ML and Uconn Over 135.5.....and $25 ON Alabama ML and Houston ML and Yale Over 130.5

 #1 pays +200

#2 pays +135  = $58 back (-$25 for play #1 = gain of $8 haha)

Record after 2 Rounds:

Record ATS:  6 - 2  (+$265)

Exotics :   3 - 2   (+130)

Excited for the 2nd round!

Game 1 - 2:

-Arizona has handled all styles of teams all season long in the non-conf and their own conf.

-I had Clemson getting this far in my local bracket challenge that I am leading with 46 people in it (tied with someone else) as we play double pts for upsets each round (each round gets 1, 2 , 3 pts etc to the final)

-these teams matchup well statistically with Zona slightly better at shooting each category but not rebounding where Clemson could get 2nd chance pts....

-even when you compare who beat who there are similarities in wins, both handled Bama and top ACC teams ....but Arizona just has that extra gear

SURELY, 7.5 PTS FOR DOGGIE IS A DECENT BET .....but I think teaser +5 more is very solid with Clemson!

-UCONN simply is the better team here by far....and we have not even seen their 3rd gear yet and they will not need to use it here ..... so with that said, when UCONN uses that EXTRA GEAR, they tend to use  it on both ends of the court. I am pretty sure, their defense will maintain the highest gear possible so therefore, I like the UNDER 135.5 strongly here and again, TEASING 5 pts for insurance is the way to go but a straight bet has a high probability

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Late Games Thurs:

-UNC beat Tenn by 8 but lost to Kentucky by 4

-Alabama  lost to Purdue, Clemson, Creighton and Zona in their non-conf schedule.....that tells me they lack another gear to figure out the how to get the caramel without affecting the chocolate on the outside!! And their chocolate is defense and UNC's ball movement, offensive rebounding and clutch shooting is as good as the 4 teams that BAMA lost too...arguably better than 2 of those teams....

-the line seems right...does Bama have another gear to get pissed off and bear down? They showed it last game but this UNC team can bully them with size and determination who won't get into silly errors like BAMA seems to fall into in stretches in games

LIKE UNC -4.5 a lot but teasing down for the win is yummy...... BAMA teased to 9.5 is not good because they are fragile against strong teams at times

MY PLAY OF THE DAY: - UNDER IOWA ST 146 

My Bet Plan:

TRIPLE UP ($100-200-400 if necessary)

Play 1 - 5pt TEASER $100 > Clemson +12.5 with UNDER UCONN 141 with UNC win  

Play 2 - if lose play 1 > standard $200 next play > UNDER IOWA St-Illinois 146 

-even if I win my teaser, keeping this play at $200 because I love it so much!

I have a plan for Friday.....if I need Play 3 to finish TRIPLE UP....and playing my plays regardless

What happened to defense in the SDST -UCONN game?

SMOOTH UNC....wow

My Bet Plan:

 TRIPLE UP ($100-200-400 if necessary)

 Play 1 - 5pt TEASER $100 > Clemson +12.5 with UNDER UCONN 141 with UNC win  

Play 2 - if lose play 1 > standard $200  next play > UNDER IOWA St-Illinois 146   

Record Up to 3rd Round:

Record ATS/Total:  7 - 2  (+$445)

Exotics :   3 - 3   (+$30)

Fun Plays > parlays and teasers for me today

Play #1/2 > $25 > 5 pt teasers/3 way paying +110

> KEYS:   Duke +9.5 with GEORGIA +8.5 (NIT):

a. NC State +12

b. Gonzaga +10.5

c. Indiana St Under 169.5 (NIT)

D. Creighton +8.5  (NIT)

Main 5 pt teaser (3 way @+110) = $100 > Houston win with Houston UNDER 139.5 with Georgia +8.5

- Jeremy Roach is an effective player for Duke and is Questionable

Parlays:

Marquette 1.33 with Purdue 1.42 x $50

Marquette 1.33 with Duke +4.5 (1.7) x $30 

FACTS about Duke-Houston Matchup:

-Houston is a terrible FT team so I can see Duke deploying this strategy if down in the 4th Q....I hope its a tight game so they do not have to do this until the last couple of minutes

-Houston had to go to OT @Baylor and win by 6....Baylor does not have a good defense 

-Duke beat Baylor by 8 in non-conf matchup so I am expecting this game to be tight

-also expect Duke will deploy their defensive tactics to keep this tight and then use strategic fouling in the 4th Q

DEFENSE STATS:

Duke 53 best def. .......Houston #1

Duke 104 vs 3pt perimeter defense.....Houston #17

Duke 43 in defense rebounding....Houston #37

Houston will have to contend with defensively... 2x as good Free Throw stats for Duke 

-23rd best FG team in Duke

-13th best 3pt team in Duke......however, realize that Houston's competition this year was much tougher than Dukes when we look at SOS but....ACC teams are showing up to be good on both sides of the ball and Houston might feel pressured to convert and match Duke at times and the free throw line might let them down but will contribute to a total + Dukes shooting.....to easily and most likely be over 130 but not likely over 140?

I am having a hard time picking a pure side or total today...... .......if I lose all my exotic plays, I will be marginally up for the tourney but that will force me to fish for one play for $300 - $500 the rest of the way, or maybe a couple

-$180 so far on exotic bets yesterday....BUT...I have 3x $25 @+110 that are hanging fruit to clawback some of that money on Tuesday

QUESTION OF THE DAY:

WHY IS ALABAMA FAVOURITE AND THE TOTAL 164.5?????........ go through Clemson's schedule carefully like a good capper and you will ask yourself the same question

Coming back with some plays....

PLAYS OF THE DAY:

 CLEMSON ML +145 - $70 - they already beat Bama 85-77 in their building!! They have beat a lot of excellent teams on the road and seem comfortable on the road

-Bama with a sense of relief to get to the final 8

-it's taken a lot out of them so their adrenaline and effort is draining

-Clemson NEVER looks tired and rarely breakdown defensively

-Clemson beat UNC on the road EASILY and Bama now has to beat the team they they barely beat and is organized and in control better than most teams with their sets and backdoor cuts/timely shots...they work the clock for a proper open shot....no machismo in their game but UNC fell into that trap of playing street ball with BAMA.....Clemson won't and already beat them

TWO GOOD PLAYERS ARE HURT FOR BAMA and Pringle cannot play at full speed and leaping around the hoop likely.....I know that you do not bounce back from a strain in your ankles or achilles in 2 days...played pro v-ball myself indoor and outdoor and your ankles are EVERYTHING on a court where leaping matters ....move forward to pivot up puts huge strain on ankles and yes tape helps but to jump with speed and freedom....not so much

BIG PLAY: UNDER CLEMSON-BAMA 164.5 - $200 ......adding $100-150 m\ more if it climbs before gametime

- total between them in Bama where the home team can score 100 for fans was 159 .....now Bama is tired, wonky for some players and Clemson is not

L2T.......