Season Thread - Totals Mostly (some sides)

December Play #4/5 - UMASS -6.5 x1U  and UNDER 151 x 2U 

- I have USF pegged for 60-65 pts at most, in this game because UMASS can play defense guarding FGs and a little less proficient vs 3 pt....and I don't see USF as a 3 pt threat here with their stats

-USF BEAT a good team who is on a roll in N.Iowa but that was at home  (71 - 65)

- I find it hard to believe that UMASS will score 85+ pts against a good team defense like USF and who have an 0 - 5 OVER record 

I will look for another later as I have a busy afternoon, but, if UMASS is inclined to play a half court game vs USF, then I may not cover the ATS which is why I am pressing more on the UNDER here...the Total has gone way out of control in my opinion

BOOM! Gotta like when a plan works out.... 

Gonna sift now but sometimes its best to just not force it.

Today > 2 - 0  ATS/Totals (+3 U) ...I also played Citadel -5.5 but did not post as I had to rush out the door for a Memorial service and I see they came in but not including here

Looking but no promises...

Monday Play - only 1 and situational

 Alabama - 24.5 x 2 U ....think they win by 30 or more 

-Kenpom on Ark St. was around 220 and Bama are an offensive beast who like to strut at home and score 90-105 

-Arky St started scoring a lot and I think coaches have adjusted to them with film and they are no longer hitting open shots as well off of these adjustments

-I thought about the OVER here but when I see Arky St or a similar team not covering high TOTALS anymore it indicates to me that other teams are tightening up

-AND BAMA beat #67 INDIANA ST. Kenpom at home by 22 pts!!! 

Party on garth....enjoy the off line here (think it should be -27 or even higher), I think Bama takes out their loss to Clemson on Arky St big time

You are seeing Purdue taking its frustrations out on Iowa in the same situation right now....at home off a road loss vs a good team, but not a better team!

Purdue 32 - 14 at the midway point of the first half ....I expect the same by Alabama and love Monday or Tuesday teams in this kind of situation

Missed it by a half point...that sucks. Second half, Arky St. got interested, Bama did not

@Last2thirst

 It is so Sad. Always by 1/2 Point.

We got to try again 

Its been a while, but that is how I like to roll.....I won't press after I lose a close one and I won't chase if I cannot give the analytics respect and time that I wish to support my position.

I do have some strong analytical positions today, and think a friend who has been cold lately, has found a nice OVER to TEASE for an even greater advantage, just in case his cold streak persists...

Will update the BEST OVER and UNDER teams list too....its shrinking as I suspected it would, but also some new adds!

December Play #7 - Colgate/Vermont Under 135.5 x 1 U ....today is DOUBLE UP day so if I lose, my next one later will be for 2U, otherwise, I just keep on playing 1U plays the rest of the day

-Vermont has become a defensive type team and you can see this even at home where its always been a strong shooting court for them over the years....always one of my favorite courts to get + points or take an OVER....I have been there and there is usually an electric crowd on a weekend

-Colgate is 1 - 7 OVER and I can see why with their style of play and shooting + defense....they use a lot of clock and force the other team to get into their sets (few open looks early)

TEASER 5 PT Half U each: KEY Kentucky OVER 148.5 with UNDER FSU 150.5 with:

-USF is 0 - 7 OVER by the way and FSU doesn't always put their offense into high gear and especially vs some weaker teams

-South Florida home court is legendary for stifling shooters over the years

1. UCONN Over 158 

2. UMass Lowell +11

3. Houston Under 137.5

4. N.Arizona Under 156.5

5. Murray St Over 133.5

6. Tennessee Under 149.5

Double Up play = OVER 145.5 Oklahoma x 2U.....I lose this, I stop today

-they have never scored under 150 pts this season 

-one of their best forwards-players is Questionable but they have good shooters even on the bench

Love Double Up days......that's it for me ....cash in the bank and playing some horses tonight

December Play #8 - 10 x 1U each first two plays:

Dartmouth/Boston Under 130.5 - last 2 years, games have gone under this and the way these two teams play and their stats, unless this goes to OT, this one should easily as well

Boston +2.5 - better team and shooters

Arky Little Rock Under 164 x 2U

-since blasting out of the gate with 6-7 OVERS ...they have dipped UNDER and I don't think Vegas has adjusted. UTSA doesn't have the stats offensively to keep scores high in my opinion but somehow they have vs less teams which Arky Little is not

BOL 

These BEST UNDER and OVER team lists were updated as of the end of Sunday or Monday. I am noticing in the past 2 weeks, Vegas is starting to post exaggerated totals on some of these so you might just want to look at the matchup and strengths of each to visualize how you think the matchups will go with other teams.....be careful

TEAM OVERS:

Rutgers 1 - 8
Jacksonville St. 1 - 8
Louisiana Tech 1 - 7
St Francis Pa 1 - 7
UCLA 1 - 7
San Francisco 1 - 7
Army 1 - 7 - 1
TOWSON 2 - 8
HOUSTON 2 - 8
North Arizona 2 - 8
Providence 2 - 8
Drexel 2 - 8
South Flor(USF) 1 - 6
Dartmouth 1 - 6
CSN Northridge 1 - 6
Long Island U. 1 - 6

Valpraiso 2 - 7
BYU 2 - 7
STT 2 - 7
Notre Dame 2 -7
Miss Valley St. 2 - 7
COLGATE 2 - 7
Michigan St. 2 - 7
SMU 2 - 7

@Last2thirst Great information—thank you! 

TEAM OVERS:

Northeastern 9 - 1
ARKANSAS 8 - 1
WOFFORD 8 - 1
Arky Pine B 7 - 0 - 1
Alcorn St. 7 - 1
James Mad. 7 - 1
Lamar 7 - 1
UNC Greens 7 - 1
Kent State 7 - 1
Michigan 8 - 2
UMBC 8 - 2
Cal B. St. 6 - 1
TROY 6 - 1
UNLV 6 - 1
New Mex St. 6 - 1
Eastern Wash. 6 - 1
Kennesaw 6 - 1
UMASS 6 - 1

Sam Houston 7 - 2
Alabama 7 - 2
YALE 7 - 2
Bradley 7 - 2
Richmond 7 - 2 - 1
ELON 7 - 2
Radford 7 - 2
Pittsburgh 7 - 2 - 1
U. North Iowa 7 - 2
California 7 - 2
USC 7 - 2

NP , I enjoy being helpful

ARKANSAS ARKANSAS

Red Wolves have got a shot...sure 

December Play #11-12:

Marquette OVER 140 x 2U - they consistently score 85 - 95 pts at home (including 86 vs Texas) and yes STT has a decent defense, but this team is on a whole new level of play and gear that they can crank up in their play. Marquette distributes the ball better than any team other than Purdue that I have seen, and they played each other, which was a potential final 4 type of game and beautiful to watch

Citadel +14.5 x 1U - lost last year by about 16-20 pts and this year's team is stronger, better defensively and COC is weaker than last year.....this one could end up very tight

One insta - play today!

Dec Play #13 - New Mexico @ New Mexico St. OVER 153.5 X 3U ....why is this line dropping?

-last year, NMSU was a defensive team these two scored 196 pts between them in this building 

-this year NMSU is 6 - 1 OVER and NM is a better team at 9-1 scoring 80 pts and higher regularly

10 pts in less than 2 minutes and now NO POINTS in almost 6 minutes? wtf 

Saturday plays all 1 Unit unless stated: Dec Plays #14 - 

Rutgers/LIU UNDER 137.5 (x2U) - combined 2 - 14 OVER together

Providence UNDER 142.5 

Towson Under 132.5

Michigan Over 145 (x2U)

Radford Over 134.5

N.Arizona Under 149.5

Valpraiso Under 138.5

Virginia Over 127.5

Arkansas Over 154.5

SMU/FSU Under 147.5

BYU (2x) Under 149.5

$700 laid out to test my total biases today.....BOL 

Went 5 - 6 Today  = EVEN Units....no blood except juice

List need an update and working on them tonight....

Eyeing Sunday....

Colgate @ Illinois as an Under 145.5....Illinois can play lockdown defense

Stoney Br @ Army Under 132.5

VMI @ Longwood Under 141.5

N. Kentucky @ E. Kentucky Under 142.5

StoneyB vs Army

-Stoney with 6 OVERs much higher than this line

-Army with 7 UNDERS of this line or slightly higher 

ARMY has shown to score against stronger teams and get into the 60 pt range.....Stoney B scores in this range against good teams so I really don't see an advantage except maybe in 3pt shooting and Stoney limiting Army

-still think the UNDER has a shot here because I figure the score will be at worst 68 - 62....and likely lower

PASS FOR NOW....unless total goes up

Colgate @ Illinois  145.5

-Illinois has gone Under this total vs weaker teams 2x ....has a Top  100 pace but slows it down at home!

-Illinois defense is strong and should still be adequate to prevent Colgate from getting a lead too far on them if ever

-Colgate has a good defense and can rebound and prevent Illinois excellent offense reb if needed....but Off rebounding is very much about motivation and hustle which I expect to be at a slightly slower pace here

-Colgate has not had a line like this....its always much higher or much lower vs an opponent

-Illinois off of 8 days rest and should be a little sleepy in moments and last time in this position, they went way UNDER vs Rutgers and played strong defense

December Play #25 - Colgate/Illinois Under 145.5 x 1U

VMI @ Longwood 144 - total going up but I like this one more now as the PACE is slowing for VMI drastically 

-Longwood tends to go OVER anywhere near this number and when it doesn't, its versus a weak opponent like VMI

-Longwood with strong defense stats but can also score......VMI with good defense stats and still could not reach over 60 pts vs a good offensive team like Radford ..... I just think VMI will prevent 60 pts and not sure they will be in the mood to score over 80 pts ?

-VMI scored 56 and 47 their last two away games and sandwiched in between their home games tend to be slower paced but they score better....when I look at pace numbers, their last 3 games have dropped hugely by over 7 pts

- don't think Longwood will have to play at pace here and their pace ranking is still slower than VMI anyway 

December Play #26 - VMI/Longwood Under 144 x 2U

Wagner @ Fairfield Under 133 

-Wagner is one of the slowest teams in college in the 300's for pace.....Fairfield around 120th but they slow things down at home to a middle ranking 

-last time on the road vs a team with similar pace was Providence and it went way over but that is a Top 50 team and Fairfield is not

- this one could be close and if Fairfield scores 70-75, I don't see Wagner scoring more than 60 as they would have to run their sets quicker and that tends to mean less successful shooting from teams like this .....they have a strong defensive team

LEAN to this one maybe 

N. Kentucky @ E. Kentucky 142.5 

-E. Kentucky with fast paced team who can score and #1 Offensive rebounding team in the country

-N.Kentucky with 247 pace who like to get into sets and try to score that way....E.Kentucky with good defense so I am actually really like the the HOME TEAM  -3 for a nice side number, and if they are shooting poorly, I will take the in-game UNDER in the 2nd Q depending on where it is at 

December Play #27 - E. Kentucky (h) -3 x 1U

L2T.......

Rolling yesterday's profit into one play right away.....

 Maine +16 @ UCF x 2U

- they beat USF 70 - 59 on the road which is hard to do in that building!

- they know how to play lockdown defense and then score a bucket

- I honestly don't see UCF running away from them, especially with the 240th type ranked FG % and 3 PT shooting ability

Duquesne -3.5  x 1U and UNDER 143 x 1U

- Bradley with a 4 game losing streak and reduced production with a key guard out who is a big part of their offense 

- he is Questionable for tonight and has not played since Dec 2

- was looking at playing the OVER here given Dusquesne ability to score, but side might be better if it does not go over 

- Dusquesne are a very efficient offense who can score off of a middling pace....ranked 216 and Bradley at rank 200

BOTH BRADLY and DUSQUESNE pace are slowing down considerably in the last 3 games.....liking the UNDER now on a neutral court!

MORGAN ST @ Campbell >> study game > lean to OVER more than + points 

-interesting matchup here as you have the 2nd slowest pace team in the country who played EVEN SLOWER their last game vs. the 83rd fastest pace team in the land....... my thesis is, the faster pace team with have better offensive rebounding and might actually force Campbell into more fouls or them themselves from having to wait so long in the clock

- my gut is to take the OVER here more than the points as the slower pace will frustrate Morgan St

Murray St @ Arkansas Little Rock  >> study game > but strong lean to UNDER 151.5  and taking x 1U

- in the last 3 games, Murray St. slowed down their already very slow offense down 10 basis pts from a 320 ranking....!!!

-since they are made favorite here because they can play tight ball games against good teams, they will dictate the flow of the game so expect them to try to hold ALR to less than 70 pts and win the game BY SLOWING THINGS DOWN against the 53rd fastest offense in Arkansas LR who are not the best shooters

Jacksonville St @ Tarleton UNDER 125.5 x 1U

-what do you get when you have 2 of the slowest paced teams in the country face each other??? A super low scoring game

- #315th for pace vs #322 !!

Strong lean to EWU @ Cal Poly 146 OVER ....no play unless it comes down.......

-EWU with 83 fastest offense and good shooters....vs a so-so defense ....EWU plays fast on the road

BOL TODAY