Season Thread - Totals Mostly (some sides)

Looking at some late NCAAB lines now and have an angle maybe.....

Final Play Week in December: - will update my record on Jan 1 or so

Indiana-Kennesaw - UNDER 163 x 2U

-people don't realize that Indiana is a defensive team who likes using clock and don't like to get into fast games where the shots come from outside or open looks near the glass early in a shot clock

-now go look at Kennesaw's defensive stats

- I have watched Indiana play 2 different types of teams and came to some conclusions on them

-this one might have  a fast scoring first half but Indiana will adjust, Kennesaw might have to as well so even if a close game, I suspect the 2nd half will not be flash and dash type of action and if the first half is not, there is more than enough room to cover this point total. 

THIS ONE STANDS OUT TO ME AND KICKING THE TIRES ON SOME MORE....

Play #2 Tonight - Michigan OVER 144.5 x1U

-almost made this my number #1 play but.....could Michigan be pressured with good system defense and make mistakes from a good McNeese state team? Maybe

-if the line were at 149-153.5, I might just watch them but I am pretty sure that you cannot contain Michigan's offense to UNDER 77 pts and if you do, I am betting that you are close enough to them within 5 pts to make it a tight match.....Michigan's defense is not good enough to contain a statistically strong McNeese offense and the stats demonstrate this

Ahh shit...did not send this play that was ready around 530pm..... I was capping horses for my PICK5 and got distracted

January Play#1 - TCU -26 x 1U

-rompsville here we go

- if I thought TCU would not cover, I would go UNDER here as TexAMCC is 2 - 6 UNDER

Will be on sides a little more as I feel that VEGAS has their TOTALS dialed in right now BUT.....they do make mistakes on Conference games and rivalries

Day #2 in January Plays:

American -2 x 2U

-scratching my head on this line since the home teams has a crazy good offense and at home with local refs vs a mediocre team in Lehigh

Army +3 x 1U

-definitely more ability to control the ball and keep this tight enough to win the game in the final 5 minutes 

Providence -5.5 x 1U

-revenge game for last year and can lockdown any team at home. This team can go deep in the clock and sink the 3 pt with seconds left and are doing it a lot this year....followed 3 games so far and that is what I see

-they get a lead, they are tough to overcome

Sent a little late again...sorry....just showing what I had ready. I am getting squeezed for time between 6-7 pm the last while

Losing all 3 of them early....serves me right eh??

Saturday Plays: (1 Unit per)

Kentucky-Florida OV 168 - 2 high powered offenses who like the highlight reel

Howard OV 147/5 - strong scoring team

Seton Hall +5.5 - Marquette been in a funk/still good and won't blow a good SH team coming on strong

Dartmouth Under 133.5 - Penn with scorer injury and no incentive to lay the lumber and score over 75 pts vs a decent defensive team that has trouble scoring 

Houston Under 134.5 (2 U) - Houston is best defense in the country and WVU is not a scoring machine and teams with good fast break try to run on Houston but it does not work cause they take pride in getting back/ supporting each other so best hope for WVU is to hope they shoot well and play deep in clock...hit some 3's....GOOD LUCK >> see a 75 - 55  type of score vs a pretty good WVU defense

Tulane +4.5 and OVER 144.5

W. Illinois Under 136.5

------------------------------------

Lets see how we do in the early to mid afternoon and then I might play some night games

$450 on the line and will decide after

Correction on a couple of plays:

Houston got 135 

Dartmouth got 134

Tulane +5 and 143.5 ....by the time I got to BET365

Much better

Teasers: 5 PT and HALF U each (pay +200 return = +1U profit per play)

KEYS: Purdue Ft Wayne + 3 with Tulane OVER 137.5 with Army UNDER  131.5

PLAYS:

1. Mercer-VMI Under 145.5

2. Milwaukee -3 

3. Seton Hall +10

4. Samford -1

5. Arkansas +7.5

6. Dartmouth-Penn Under 139.5

7. Evansville + 3

$175 cost

HAD THIS READY TO GO AROUND NOON BUT FORGOT TO HIT SEND....not counting these but placed these bets myself around noon

Columbia +12.5 x 1U ..... Cornell does not play defense and Columbia shoots well and does play good defense

PLAY OF THE DAY > RUTGERS-Indiana UNDER 140.5 x 2U - check the past few games vs each other....these games have trouble getting over 130 pts and there is noting in Rutgers offense or defense to suggest they will crank up point scoring or allow excessive numbers of baskets

This one will be a grinder and max score 70-67, but likely, we see both teams with final scores in the 60's like past games

GL on your plays & Happy Belated New Years @Last2thirst 

WESTIE 

Finally a clean day for me 2 - 0 (+3U)

Today:

NW-Penn St Over 143 x 1U

UCF +7.5 x 1U ...don't think Kansas is a great road team and UCF are always strong on their home court....would even recommend sprinkling the ML

TAKING THE BAIT .... Tennessee -2 @ Miss St x 4U= $200 ...Miss St. has not beaten anyone who is top 10 material and VOLS in stomp mode playing/firing on all cylinders (surprised they have lost 3x)

Indiana St  +3 x 1U ...they can score at will and if Drake takes a lead, they are good enough to come back and win so I like the +3 a lot here but not betting more since its a rival and back to back roadies

Missouri St UNDER 146.5x1U...was shocked how many 3 pters Murray St hit on my team last game and so vs a tight dee and probably not going to happen 2 games in a row as Bears would have looked at the tape and got motivated

Miami -16.5 x 1U ...sure, I'll take the bait that this will be a complete blowout as Louisville is terrible and Miami is going to get some shooting practice in from 3 pt land on their strong home court

MONEYLINE HOME DOG VALUE > OLE MISS +120x 2U at home where they are 9-0 and 13-1 on the season vs a Florida team who lost to Kentucky in a tight one despite leading most of the way

-Ole Miss is a deadly home crowd and court for players

-Ole Miss is #6 best three point shooting team so that really convinced me to take them along with their strong defense and home court

BOL 

I keep falling into bad trap games....holy shit is Tennessee screwing around , not playing defense and missing 3 pt shots left and right 

WOW! How da truck does Vegas know they are going to be shitty tonight??

Definitely a microcosm of my season (this often happened in some NCAAF seasons)

- my best play blows up and I give away what would have been a profitable night on a play that I got too overconfident in

Tennessee tonight  minus 4 U >>  they fight like hell to tie the game and could have taken the lead 3 x but just reverted to playing lazy defense by fouling to get the ball back and they could not hit a clutch 3PT or many all night 

OLE MISS ML x 2U 

NW-Penn St Over 143 x 1U  

UCF +7.5 x 1U ...don't think Kansas is a great road team and UCF are always strong on their home court....would even recommend sprinkling the ML   *** shoulda sprinkled !!  

Indiana St  +3 x 1U 

Missouri St UNDER 146.5x1U 

Miami -16.5 x 1U   they should be embarrassed ....lost by 9??

4 - 3 ATS/TOTALS (-1 Unit) 

Saturday Plays:

a. Kent St - CMU Over 142 x 1U ...almost every match between them scores over 140 and often over 150

b. LIU @ Sacred H UNDER 150 x 1U ... both teams can play defense against similarly rated teams and LIU is not a major 3 pt threat and SH defends this well

c. Western Illiniois -1 Play of the Day x 2U ...they just win! Excellent defense and timely buckets after a defensive stop and should have no issues here in this one

d. SMU Under 137.5 x 1U ...they suffocate teams and I expect this one to grind in their matchup 

Might have some more later.... 

BOL

Monday Plays:

Ohio St 2nd half -1.5 @ Michigan x 2U

Princeton -17 x1U

Princeton UNDER  135.5 x1U

Add also Minny -2.5 x 1U ...home cooking will be good for them

Tuesday Plays:

TCU-Cinci Under 150.5 x 1U

Temple-SMU Under 140 x 2U PLay of the Day....whether star player plays or not for Temple, SMU plays lockdown defense at home

PLAY OF THE DAY:

Wright St Over 148.5 x 3 U

-both teams with excellent offenses and especially Wright St. who wants revenge for a 85-77 loss @ Wisc Green Bay

- I expect Wright St. to score over 80 this time and for Wisc Gr Bay to hang with them and score over 70.....

L2T......

   +3U 

Was going to take a break for a while if I did not get that one because, it would just seem picking basketball was all hunches and analytics didn't matter. The thing that struck me about this matchup, was how almost every game Wright St had played this year, only ONCE was a total of that number was not breached