Season Thread - Totals Mostly (some sides)

MEH....what a struggle to make gains

Tuesday - just HALF U plays that I am going with my gut and known analytics:

James Madison -29 

Notre Dame Under 129

Morehead St +12.5 

Tulsa -23 

.....watching the total line also for Tulsa...may play tomorrow

Play of the Day: UCLA UNDER 138.5 x 2U *** ....just got an extra point....total is rising

-look, their defense works for them and they are playing a good defense so coach will want them to work through their ball movement in the half court set, not run and gun at any point

-the last time UCLA played a local, it was UCRiverside and only won by 1 pt playing terrible defense against a team that doesn't score a lot and gives up a lot of points

-with 2 losses in a row, expect UCLA to play nasty on defense and be determined on offense which means taking good shots out of their half court sets, NOT ONE on ONE ball when they think they can take their man one on one and CSN with a good team will remind them to play this way!

@Last2thirst

 Thanks and GL!

Just need UCLA UNDER for the daily sweep....lets get it 

Another Even day for UNITS.... but went 4 - 1

 UCSanDiego can play tight ball games and are @ 3 - 7 California who likes to play loose.....take a look at SD's competition and they almost upset SDST! (lost by 1)

UCSD +8.5 x 1.5U

USCD ML x HalfU

USCD Over x 1U ....can see them scoring 70-75 pts, perhaps more vs a weak Cali defense and Cali doing their part to push this over with about 72 - 80 pts

Radford +6.5 x 1.5U ... got to within 3 pts of James Madison recently, on the road and so a weaker WVU  team missing a key scoring and defensive big man will help them to cover and potentially win this, because they are on a roll

Radford ML x HalfU

UNDER 138.5 >> STRONG LEAN (watching total) ....this team has excellent defensive stats and don't mind playing a dull half court game if that is what is required and that is exactly what might happen here with WVU.....BUT decided not to play this because, does WVU switch up their offense by playing faster and letting their guards shoot the ball more rather than going to their big guy who is not playing?

Mastadons /Pitt Over 155.5 x 1U 

-Pitt can really move the ball and with pace and can shoot at a high %

-Mastadons have a good offense and 11-1 and should be able to carve 70 pts here vs Pitts defense

-Pitt tends to score over 85 pts vs 2nd and 3rd tier ranked teams (100th rank and above)

Oakland-Dayton OVER 138 x 2U - both teams can shoot and move the ball ....Dayton becoming an OVER machine and Oakland were still able to score over 60 on Sparty's tight defense so I expect them to get 65-70 and over 70 for Dayton

Might have more later....

CREIGHTON -8.5 x 3U is my Play of the Day.....Moore wonky for Nova and they need him banging inside and hustle defense and even if he was playing, Creighton is easily a top 10 team with a strong offense and great homecourt

Vill is terrible shooting defense this year and having trouble scoring at times

RESULTS TODAY: pretty happy with my dog picks

UCSD +8.5 x 1.5U  

USCD ML x HalfU   

USCD Over x 1U 

Radford +6.5 x 1.5U 

Radford ML x HalfU  

UNDER 138.5 >> STRONG LEAN  <<< did not play and would have covered

 Mastadons /Pitt Over 155.5 x 1U 

 Oakland-Dayton OVER 138 x 2U 

CREIGHTON -8.5 x 3U is my Play of the Day   .... I am going up on and looking good in my first of half of press plays but just cannot seem to shut the door in the 2nd half

Thursday:

Strong Leans:

Dartmouth- Sacred Heart  OVER 137.5 but waiting.....think an influencer who likes the UNDER could bring this down for me even more by the morning

- SH tends to play faster tempo and when Dartmouth is forced to, they do as well as both matches vs the same opponents as SH went over 140 for a total....when SH played them, both went over 160

-therefore, the logic to place this line UNDER  140 is not logical and in fact, Dartmouth is faster on the road as far as pace

Navy- Youngstown Under 138 - hard for me to see Navy dictating the pace of the game and scoring with YS having a good defense and can play a strong system game at both ends

- I think Navy will get frustrated with not scoring as well as YS but will not breakdown their discipline as armed forces teams rarely do...they are what they are 

-see a 75 pt max for YS and hard to see Navy scoring more than 62

Playing now > G. Washington -14.5 x 2 U ....statistical mismatch and GW is real strong at home so I expect them to win by over 20 to a sloppy Alcorn team....GW beats similar teams by much more

Abilene @ Arkansas lean OVER 148.5<< healthy now and will be score gunning against weaker conference teams to prepare for SEC shootouts that will be common this season

-Abiliene should score 65 or more and I expect Arky to be 85+

GTECH /UMASS OVER 150.5 x 1U.... UMASS likes to get out and run many scoring chances and I see GTECH playing along on neutral court.....this one should sail over this number if you look at common opponent result vs UMASS Lowell

Might have more tomorrow and some final decisions on some of these after the lines move to numbers I like 

Dare FADE MITM   

 Haha..... doing my own thing with analytics + following Falcon sometimes (never ended up playing it as it was a lean and xmas shopping was more important)

Go check my NCAAF thread for the season > 67% win rate on ATS/Totals and usually, I picked on Sunday or Monday without line shifts..

 It not fun following someone exclusively but no doubt I respect what Falcon does 

I capped horses tonight and might fire back up my Harness thread in the new year.....you are welcome to come in there and do some tailing if you want

Are you part of the cult? What colour is the kool aid so I can lay a bet on it like the Super Bowl 

@Last2thirst

Always follow this thread, and was a bit surprised, hoping you didn't place it!

 Good Luck Brother!

Thanks man....good xmas spirit there. I don't like the cult like anti-social stuff in there to be honest but there are a lot of good people and me and Falcon email each other occasionally

I chewed him out 2 weeks ago in his cold street when I thought he was not looking at injuries and other info....when on a cold streak because, he always has 3-4 plays ready. I just wanted him to watch out for people but he was good about it and agreed we both think community and just moved on

Friday:

Did a check of first games of the day Totals bias  (if they played in the morning ) and the bias is toward UNDERS...

#12 at pace vs 340+ in Drexel who held Albany, also another fast team to 133 pts at home

-STRONG LEAN and likely playing 132.5 Drexel Under x1U ....SLEEPING ON IT 

Play #1 Friday > UNDER 138.5 x1U Boston-Lowell Mass

-last 4 matchers were all within 128 -139 pts.... 132-134 happened the most in the last 6 games

-Lowell Mass will knuckle down on defense and need a win....talented team in a funk right now, but attention to detail defense worked for them earlier in the season

Play #2 - SMU - Murray St. Under 139 x 1U 

-Murray St 330th for pace and SMU with one of the best defenses in the country....surprised it is this high

Will look at some sides if I get time in between shopping...

Too funny, I wake up this morning and looking at what Falcon is going with and he likes the OVER on the Drexel-Bryant game and I am leaning UNDER so far, but the one thing that I want to check is, what happens when Bryant plays a slow paced team like Drexel at 300+ for pace...... I just find it odd his math finds the first play of the day for an UNDER yesterday when it looked like a for sure OVER and then today, it leans to an UNDER and he goes for an OVER with his math on the first play of the day? CONFUSED? 

I laid off.....again

Play #3 - Chicago +24 @ Wisconsin x 1U

- Chicago surprised NW who is another strong Big10 home team with a 2 pt win

- getting +24 here and I rated NW within 5 pts of Wisky on neutral court

FALCON snags it....nice haha ...for his followers. That's 2 in a row he has caught fading all biases with his math. Going to keep seeing if this continues. I stopped playing his every play after the 25-7 run because many went against biases after that which kind of surprised me because most before  that didn't 

Saturday Plays: - some of these TOTALS feel like Vegas is baiting the casual bettor to take rising lines!

#1 - UNDER WVU-Toledo 154.5 x 1U

-WVU a good defensive team and traditionally strong play on their home court

-not sure why this total is climbing (because of Toledo's offense?)

- 133 WVU vs 152 Toledo....both were rated much higher and I don't see Toledo getting out of their offensive funk if they are not taking care of their defense....they only scored 60 last game and coming into WVU, they are not going to all of a sudden crank things up vs this defensive team rated better on their homecourt 

Play #2 - Kenn -UNC Nashville UNDER 163

-another TOTAL going up

-I capped this one last night and they played to a 155 total just a little while ago and I don't see the better defensive team at home allowing the better offensive team to get their open shots

-I peg this game at 147-154 at most since 2nd games in a series tend to have even reduced scoring with defensive familiarity

Play #3 - Arizona - FAU UNDER 165 x 1U

-Arizona has played 4-5 of the best teams in the country already and have shown they can play an offensive focused or defensive focused game >> 3 of their 4 games vs these very strong teams went UNDER this total

-FAU has an excellent offense but they are NO PURDUE and if Alabama - Arizona is held to 161 pts, no way do I see Zona getting sloppy here and allowing FAU to get out and run or have open shots, especially when Zona just recently tasted a defeat

-I could be wrong on this because it appears FAU dictated the game pace vs the 2-3 strong opponents they faced, but again, I am basing my decision on the total side based on who will control the game

Play #4 - Villanova - DePaul OVER 135 x 1U

-this one has blowout total written all over it ...... DePaul with a terrible defense but can offensive rebound, hit the 3 pt at high efficiency and let Villanova get out and run the break

-Villa has had a tough schedule and are due for an offensive breakout playing an easy team and just have some fun on offense...can see them score 80 pts in this one and Depaul getting their 60 or more

Play #5 - St. Johns +11.5 x 1U

-last 5 games from 2021-2023 have not seen this score difference breached so with UCONN's big guy questionable and their 3 pt defense being a bit shady, I can see STJ playing and inside out game getting UCONN to collapse and then kicking the ball out for a high rate of shot success 

-STJs play a lot of close games and get motivated playing the best teams over the years!

PLAY OF THE DAY - St. Marys - Missouri St UNDER (watching the line and hoping for total to grow) x 3U

-will confirm later >> 130.5 right now

-BOTH played Mid Tenn and St. Mary's scored a total of 110 pts in their match, Missouri St 132 if you don't count OT pts....I see no threat of OT in this one and can see St. Mary's scoring 70-75 vs a tough MSST defense and MSST  only scoring 50-55 vs STM on their home court 

-the most STM has allowed vs a middle road or weaker team is 58 pts.....don't see that changing here

Question:

1-How do you think the book sets the lines, 

2-Why do they set lines where they do?

@TJZags598

 No one has ever asked me that. But I do know that when I really get into data in a sport, I tend to look at season avgs for defense and offense and recent 3, 5 or 10 game avgs to get a feel for if their number is going up or trending down...

I then theorize how they match up vs each other in each strength vs weakness for an edge and then finally I look at injuries or time played during the previous game to get a clue is a regular starter is being pushed or not which might give an indication of their health...... as a former high level athlete, I loved to be on the floor and never got tired because adrenaline kicked in with my training....only muscle or joint weakness got me late in a game

I think TOTAL lines are also set on a combo of point differential, recent-ality with stats and win/loss trends and finally pace of play rankings 

I look for edges such as I got last night with a good defense scoring well and watching for if they are doing that during the season vs weak teams or stronger teams (do they want to impress and press on another alpha team with their prowess or do they just want to get the win and run clock?....stuff like that is important in achieving totals in some instances)

If you know exactly how lines are set, I would love to hear some feedback. Thanks

I know exactly how lines are set. No opinion. I love discussing sports/gambling. worked in industry (legal side). rarely post here, just read people i like posting.

So, you do exactly what Vegas expects a prudent gambler to do. Solid handicapping. But expected.

What is the purpose of "lines". Is Vegas looking to beat the public? Absolutely not. The job of the line is to generate "handle" If Vegas came out with perfect lines on every game, the majority of decent gamblers would pass. The one caveat is the book doesn't want to get beat by "sharps" at the open. The first hour they are very diligent on watching action.

Lets talk data for a second. Vegas has 1000x more data than any individual gambler can ever have about any game. It has team performance. It knows the publics tendency. It tracks stats. It knows how people gamble, it knows, before one game is even played, how much they expect to win. they project it months in advance. It knows the public win % on each bet/bet type. It knows its exposure on EVERY single game, and total exposure for a day instantly. They have computers dedicated to showing this.

Why does Vegas release lines at 2 1/2? 3 1/2? Certainly not worried about the hook, right?> Its to generate "handle" Thats the answer to every question. They know the vast majority of gamblers will never win; they might lose on individual games, but long term, they never lose. The goal: Maximize handle. If there are 5 games tonight, and the handle was 5,000, the per capita, or "capture" rate was 1,000. its tracked.

Does the book need to generate handle, in say the Cowboys? no, Cowboys always generate handle, as they are the most popular team bet on. Think the book is going to be soft on a Cowboys line? No, you pay a premium. and the exact premium is calculated by an algorithm, constantly. Carolina Panthers? The books will be soft on them, they are the least bet on team, and the book wants handle. so they get more beneficial lines.

Totals are created exactly the same way you do it. Points per possessions/ location/possessions, history. Again, servers crunching data instantaneously. this is a process that takes as long as the printer takes to print out. No one can out data vegas

Totals are interesting from the standpoint of there are few totals players in the market, especially on college basketball. Big games, you get totals bettors; smaller games, not so much. So Vegas does Exactly what you are doing, and puts out the line exactly where you think it should be. Not the perfect line, but close to where public thinks it should be. It would be a disaster, if lets say Vegas came out with a line that was a Total of 160, when the public calculates it at 140. Action would be uneven, it would move to much, exposure on middles, etc.

So lines are created with one purpose, and one purpose only: to generate handle. Vegas doesn't care who wins a game. they expect to lose games. They do expect to have an edge, but they cant control the outcome of the game. The human element is unpredictable.

So where are the weaknesses? MANY.

1A-Underfollowed games- Dallas plays San Fran. Those lines are going to be 100% what public expects. The game will generate the most handle, and Vegas would love 50-50 action. hey just want people to choose a side. Atlanta plays Carolina, they need to make line enticing to generate action. Thats when you get the 2.5, 38.5 & 37.5

1B-"Spots" Thats a human element that data, and computers cant control, and aren't programmed to control. Did anyone see the Ravens destroying the 49ers? OfCourse not. Was the line wrong? not according to data.

2-System Players- Consistency. Limited. Best plays Someone comes in and bets 20 games x1K Vegas loves that. Somone comes in and bets 20K one game, Vegas watches closely.

3-Money management- Vegas cant control how you manage your roll. They can entice, but final say is with you. MITM has excellent money management. takes thinking out of the process; treats every play the same.

The first question every gambler needs to ask, is WHY is the line set this way? why is it 2.5? why is the over under so high?> why is a team a bigger fav than i thought.

Makes sense?>

@TJZags598

 You confirmed what I already knew but with greater detail and clarity. Thank you 

I grew up in the city + a rural area and guess what? It was the rural area where I saw people trying to figure out angles to do well in and one of the industries they did well on were playing cards games and horse racing.....its an art out in the country and I grew up around who became harness drivers at Woodbine - Mohawk. In fact, when their parents were horse owners and they were learning to drive, I instantly fell in love with going to a B-track to bet their horses and cheer them on the track at 16-18 yrs old ....the funny thing I learned was, if about 10 of us classmates put about $100-300 on their horse collectively, we would move the line and sometimes our friend WOULD NOT TRY TO WIN!!! haha....they had the best trotting stock on that track most of the time and sometimes waited until they had a disadvantageous post to try and circle the field at 4 or 5 -1.....so I learned how to pick the right moments and which exotic tickets to make more money on....consider them the parlays of the sports industry. That is my specialty and have given me great pleasure and enjoyment over the last 40 yrs playing them when I had some extra cash which was usual from doing well with stocks or working in a hotel for tips.

Today, the harness industry is pure class and the drivers on the best tracks are competitive ....they rarely 'collaborate' but rather work off of each other's MOVES or conditioning of their horses as they complete a mile so you learn to use the data in a program to help you determine how well conditioned a horse is and will be for that race + use warmup appearances to gauge its readiness and excitement to be on the track......so if you are interested in making some regular cash in that industry, I have some methods that do so and have my harness thread for Woodbine-Mohawk and occasionally will cap a Meadowlands or a B-track card too. I find some of the capping skills and clues in that field, transfer to sports betting and you can find clues in the data and patterns AHEAD OF VEGAS .....by not getting caught up in long term trends to much but look for the game within the game of data like you would with harness racing .....MOTIVATION and tendencies are key in sports betting, just like they are in harness racing. Here is my thread and starting a new system that I will run this year starting today. 

https://www.covers.com/forum/horse-racing-61/harness-racing-ontario---mohawk-specialty-other-b-tracks-occasionally-103549987/102   << you are welcome to join me in there tonight and I will also put in my thread around 7 pm a link to watch the races too if interested.....I personally enjoy race tactics and flow on the track and Mohawk and Meadowlands have the very best drivers and horses going for the best purses .... surprisingly, Mohawk around Toronto is more lucrative for drivers than the Meadowlands

The pattern and system that I am confirming in there will be tested on the previous two years of data as well and if confirm over 3 yrs, I will run this for the rest of my life and enjoy some more betting strategies that I develop...... but yes, TOTALS in sports might be the way to go, and using the occasional sides too when a situation presents itself

Just made a play in my horse thread....first night of new system and $69 invested into 3 PICK5 options....will have some NCAAB plays in a little while 

Watch link > https://woodbine.com/mohawk/watch-races/

Plays at Woodbine Mohawk:

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2,7 / 4,6,7 / 2,4,6,7 / 5-8 / 2     $19.20
Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 5 / 2,4-7 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,5-8 / 2,6   $40.00
Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 5 / 4,6,7 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,6-8 / 1      $9.60

Not bad start to new horse racing season and a new system:

Spent $68 > returned $1127.48  on the first Pick5 which I will play with a new betting system

that I picked up from 3 yrs of study and analysis....last system I ran was in 2021 during the pandemic and made $26K profit in 7 months so I am not sure if I can match that, but will give it a go.....great start for me and honestly, I probably would not have handicapped these numbers and drivers/horses on my own!

RESULTS and my TICKET RESULT AFTER RACE 5 -WOODBINE MOHAWK:

WAGER RUNNERS PAYOUT
$2 Exacta 6 / 3 $38.40
$0.20 Trifecta 6 / 3 / 1 $33.31
$0.20 Superfecta 6 / 3 / 1 / 4 $154.84
$2 Daily Double 2 / 6 $23.90
$0.20 Pick 3 7 / 2 / 6 (3 of 3) $13.01
$0.20 Pick 5 5,10 / 2 / 7 / 2 / 6 (5 of 5) $1,127.48

Dec 28, 2023
7:08 PM Bet 74512266591514 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2,7 / 4,6,7 / 2,4,6,7 / 5-8 / 2 $19.20
Dec 28, 2023
7:04 PM Bet 75023934622829 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 5 / 2,4-7 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,5-8 / 2,6   $1,127.48   $40.00
Dec 28, 2023
7:01 PM Bet 94799324173270 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 5 / 4,6,7 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,6-8 / 1 $9.60