Season Thread - Totals Mostly (some sides)

Sunday: My #1 Play that I see is Drexel -4.5 ATS 

Haven't used TEASER much this year and I think today, its the way to go:

$30 three-way teasers with 5 pt reduction or add: - pay +110 each win

KEY: Drexel +0.5    with Indiana + 8.5   with:

(Super hard to win on Indiana's court + Sparty playing a lot of nervous and tight games lately)

1. Rutgers +6.5  - L

2. Drake +7.5  - W (+$33 if Drexel wins)

3. $60 Samford +3.5  - W (+$66 if Drexel wins)

4. Iowa +6.5      - 

5. J- Mad  - 5.5   -

Potential = +$69 + $66

Worse case if Drexel wins = +$9

Hard to believe I could lose it all.....but now you know why I chose the TEASER!!

1 MINUTE TO GO....up by 3 for Drexel haha

Lost $180 betting Drexel to win.....they did not! 

Kudos to Stoney Brook not cracking for like 15 minutes....they literally did not miss and Drexel gave away a lot of missed freethrows to give them a chance to GET TO OT

No regrets *won $239 last night in horses*

Mar 09, 2024
9:14 PM Bet 09332764519697 Woodbine Stbd, Race 6, $0.20  PK5 1,4,7 / 1,5 / 1,4,5 / 4,5,7 / 6,7 $228.47    $21.60

Gonna wait for NCAAB tourney now unless one game really stands out and I slap $100 at it

Pretty much have all my analytics done for the TOP 40 teams that will be in the NCAAB tourney.......expecting a few surprises in the rankings when I breakdown now the 22 other new QUALIFIERS to mix in with the TOP 40

My prediction for this tourney: PLENTY OF UPSETS!!

Some of the best analytics I used for teams in tourney include:

ROAD RECORD:

(top teams) J. Madison 14 - 2 , McNees St. 12 - 3, UCONN 11 - 3, St. Mary's 9 - 2, Gonzaga 9 - 2 

(weak road records of higher ranked teams) Alabama  6 - 8, BYU 4 - 7, Kansas 4 - 8, Michigan St. 3 - 7

Wisconsin 3 - 9, Nebraska 4 - 8, Mississippi St 5 - 8

More Analytics of Tourney Teams:

Strength of Schedule (SOS):

Hardest Schedule : Alabama, Purdue, Tennessee, Kansas, San Diego St., Wisconsin, Baylor, Houston

Weakest Schedule: (of 45 best teams there) 

-S.Carolina, TCU, Gonzaga, Washington St., UCONN, Colorado St., St. Marys, Nevada

Holding Opponents to Less than 65 pts in a WIN:

BEST: Houston - 23x, St. Marys - 20x, Iowa St. -17x, UCONN - 17x, Miss St. - 15x, S.Carolina -15x

BEST Shooting Teams (FG + 3 PT NCAAB ranking):

#1 - Kentucky, #2 Samford , #3 Purdue, #4 Baylor, #5 McNeese St.,

#6 - Dayton, #7 Duke, #8 Arizona, #9 UCONN, #10 Alabama/Creighton tie

SEALING GAMES  with lead  = (Off Rebounding + Defensive Rebounding + Free Throw %) Sweet 16 Best!

#1 Colorado (if they make it)

#2 Grand Canyon

#3 UCONN

#4 Illinois

#5 Indiana St  (if they make it)

#6 North Carolina

#7  BYU

#8 Arizona

#9  Purdue

#10 Clemson

#11 Gonzaga

#12 Boise

#13 Creighton

#14 Alabama

#15 TCU

#16 Auburn

I have some more stats.....but the ones I have provided in ranks should help you out. I don't fill my brackets on hunches and perceived notions of who is hot, etc....... I used analytics to win a little cash last year and this year I have doubled or tripled my analysis and hope it pays off.

Also, Conference tourneys are meaningless, except, you might use a hot team to win one round or more riding a wave, but again, it won't over ride my analytics likely, even if they are close

My bets are doubled in the Tourney in spots......

,but mostly, my money goes down on bracket challenges and group dynamic pools where I have entered in 8 so far, with $100 in for the biggest one and it will have 150-250 guys in it....with payouts to the Top 12-16 guys usually

Tourney Triple Up plays in effect: $50 - $100 - $200 or otherwise I bet $100 per play

Play #1 Wed- Colorado -2.5 (no Triple Up > $100 ) - NOTE: they are rated in my analytics as the #1 team for finishing a game 

Finishing a game requires: -Excellent defensive rebounding, great free throw shooting when fouled and offensive rebounds to extend clock and get fouled.....they were rated #1  by far

Just starting to breakdown my bracket one play at a time and will post plays based on odd mistakes by Vegas in my opinion....don't give a shit about line movement....motivation is very high for both teams and games are impossible to fix in my opinion unless its a very wide spread.

I have been in the Bellagio betting room through the whole tourney in 2017 and I can tell you....the odds board doesn't change much and you better do your homework before you arrive and not poach plays from others.

Gotta move on this total.....its going up

Play #2 - $100 on Stetson/UCONN Over 145.5

-I locked into this in the morning when it was 145

-UCONN beat ArkPine who I rate below Stetson and they managed to score 63 as a high scoring team....but allowed over 100 to UNCONN

-I can tell that UCONN will want to shake out any kinks and play freely and loosely as possible, because their next match will test and potentially threaten them

-Stetson has very high offensive ratings and middling defensive ratings

-UCONN is strong on both sides but purely stronger on their offensive side and like to move the ball up the court fast at times which I think they can hit a 40-45 point half of a half in each half......so in the other Q's  of the game, I will only need them combined to score over 30 and that should not be a problem

- I believe this line should be set at 151.5

Only follow me if you trust analytics and when you look at analytics, and see how Stetson plays (they beat UCF with both teams scoring over 80 pts!)

Forgot to mention.....should things get choppy in the last 5 minutes with Stetson wishing to flip the script and foul so their excellent 3pt shooting at least gives them some joy trying to come back down 20 pts....... UCONN is ranked 9th in my compiled metrics of BEST FINISHING TEAMS ....meaning, they can hit the Free Throw at a high rate, Defensively and Offensively Rebound to dictate possession in these last 5 minutes

Triple UP $50 start (lose > next bet is $100 > lose that, last bet is $200)

Play #1 - Morehead St  +11.5 ($50 bet)

- Illinois HAS NOT beaten anyone of upper level merit (in Top 20 Kenpom)

-Illinois with a much tougher schedule 24th vs 264th for Morehead BUT...... rating the teams on the best possible qualities to stay in a game or finish a game....Illinois if 4th best and Morehead in the top 20, however Illinois could only beat Oakland by 11 at home, and they are in the tourney and could only beat FAU by 9 on a neutral court.....I have Morehead St rated somewhere in between those two clubs

- I am making this a first bet because, I believe it is strong and a good chance with Morehead St. almost beating Indiana on their home court (lost by 1) and Illinois could only beat Indiana by 8 at home.... 

GOOD starting pick for a Triple Up ....got +11.5 pts to work with a strong shooting team, strong offensive rebounder and they play all 3 aspects of defense well

I can see a +5.5 ATS win for Grand Canyon over STM and ML  play..... #2 finisher with 2nd highest rating for closing out a game with Free throws + both types of rebounding

Friday Night Play: $75 on +5.5 ATS on Grand Canyon w/ $25 moneyline @+195

Have a look at the Charleston @ Alabama line.... only -9.5??

Check non-Conf schedule for Bama and they stomped on mid majors....obliterated them and Bama had the #1 toughest schedule in all of college by far and know how to finish games.

-the time off for them will be refreshing and regenerating them and expect bookend results 

Charleston's 171st toughest schedule and middling to bad defense.....

Play #3 (no triple Up) $100 on Alabama -9.5

Good Start to the NCAAB Tourney!

1 - 0  (+ $85)

Play #1 Wed- Colorado -2.5 (no Triple Up > $100 ) 

 - NOTE: they are rated in my analytics as the #1 team for finishing a game 

  ^^^ they sure know how to finish the game....completely in control once they came from behind and cruised after 3:30 mark controlling the boards, ball and FT line....did not miss any!

Backup to Morehead +11.5 play > if they lose, Play #2 is > a 5 PT 3 way TEASER for $100 that pays +110

-if Morehead covers.....TRIPLE UP is done and TEASER becomes a $50 play instead

Teaser: Clemson + 7 (Fri) with Wisconsin -0.5 (Fri) with  Texas Tech E (Thurs)

(these numbers could change if lines change)

Play of the Day of the remaining games $100 -110 on Colorado +3

- Texas is nowhere to be found on my best finishers list and Colorado is #1

- I expect a tight game with Colorado's shot making and pretty good defense

I jinxed my Morehead game by mentioning it in game....

Triple UP $50 start (lose > next bet is $100 > lose that, last bet is $200)

 Play#1 - Morehead St  +11.5 ($50 bet)  

Play #2 on TRIPLE UP: 

$100 Teaser (5pt) pays +110: Clemson + 7.5 (Fri) with Wisconsin -0.5 (Fri) with  Texas Tech E (Thurs)

-laying it now and getting an extra half pt on CLEMSON!

Ok, I am now searching for the appropriate TRIPLE UP - leg 3 for $200 

Texas Tech could not get anything going.....

Today, I have open: 

-Play of the Day of the remaining games $100 -110 on Colorado +3   << line has come down to +1.5

-$100 on Alabama -9.5

-Friday Night Play: $75 on +5.5 ATS on Grand Canyon w/ $25 moneyline @+195

-$100 on Stetson/UCONN Over 145.5

Leaning toward taking OAKLAND +5.5 vs NC St for my $200 play .....studying!

L2T......

STETSON not shooting 2 buckets in the first 10 minutes when they only had 4 pts for over 7 minutes iced me....even one 3 pter was good

UCONN did their part by scoring like I thought they would 85-95

Stetson, I needed 55 - 65 pts and they fed me 52 

Let's go Colorado now...in a good one

GRAND CANYON IS SICK!!!! To watch at both ends....wow....first time ever, I saw 2 guys stuff a dunk on both sides of the ball if you an believe it and their ally oops on offense are to near the top of the backboard...their guys all have hops !

Feeling good about my bets but have a 2nd half and St. Marys is a handful.....they beat Zaga 2 times and we all saw what Zaga did to another low loss time....destroyed them!