Season Thread - Totals Mostly (some sides)

@TKOOOOOOOOOOOO

 I thought so, just wanted to be sure. Thank you!

Followed the game flow of the TT game and things changed about halfway through the first Half. Tenn St. was dominant, built a 10 pt lead at one point and then wtf happened, I don't know. Their defensive ratings are top half in college and how they let Tech in the game who scored at will seemed fishy to me but it happens. When lines appear to be too good to be true, they often are....I got hooked on a sucker line apparently, despite the fact  there was no indication that Tech could beat State from their recent history

Picking Under 135.5 x 1U for Towson @ Hampton.... I anticipate a 72-59/ 68-51 type of game

If successful, will suggest another later..

L2T.......

Kentucky +8.5 x 1U vs an unstoppable Auburn home team >>> friends are playing this moneyline as they need to right the ship that has seen them collapse in their recent games.....Sheppard has a huge game without looking for the all oop shit they do that teams are now onto and they are turning the ball over.....too much offense and motivation to ignore them covering here in a spirited game!

North Dakota / Oral Rob Over 150.5 x 1U ....ND offense should hit 75-80 pts easily and Oral will perform with a Saturday night crowd

Yale +4 Half U and OVER 138x 1U ....I expect this one to be a last shot game and maybe OT 72-70 type of game ...2 top teams in Ivey who can both score and play defense, but know how to shoot over a good defense!

My Play of the Night: GONZAGA -30.5 x 2U ....been shaky this year when I feel a line is too good to be true. I think Zaga scores close to 100 on this team tonight and their very strong shot and hoop defense should leave only 50-59 for Pacific, unless they get hot on the perimeter ....Pacific is terrible at the line, terrible going to the hoop so they better pass well and then hit their shots vs a big sized Gonzaga lineup....I don't think they can

-Zaga rarely opens my eyes with a late surge but this year, I think a lot of pundits think its a down year for them but I don't know, based on what I am seeing from them now...wow! What they did to Kentucky on their home court when even down by 6-8 many times in the game, was super impressive to me ....they stuck with it and played nails defense in last 5 minutes and shut out probably the top 3 best offenses in  college ball

South Florida Under 147 and +4.5 x 1U parlay.......think I can get both so going for it. Like the Kentucky game yesterday, I think it might be a nice shot to even play moneyline, but I lost Units on the day

USF is traditionally a super tough homecourt opponent and that has played out this year again with one of their strongest teams in a decade. This one will be a humdinger!

USF is so good, they beat Memphis on the road and held the scoresheet down!!

SEE PICK ABOVE.....DECIDED TO JUST DO THE +4.5 x 2U....if pressed, USF can score!

Good Luck today bud  

GL today 

Thanks guys 

Other plays I am eyeing.....

NW + points....going to let this one ferment for a while....they own Indiana who have been blah lately, including at home

UTAH-UCLA  OVER.....check out their match in Utah....UTES can score 65-70 on UCLA ....and UCLA will get their points as they are on a roll and will be highly motivated for this game....streaks come to an end so I expect comfort in offense by UTAH and who knows if they can cover.....UCLA won't shut them completely down >> OVER seems more of a no-brainer here

Half U on LoyChic OVER 147.5 @ Rhode Island 

@Last2thirst

Getting +3 for NW x Half U

OVER 134.5 UCLA x Half U

1-1 today (+1.5U) so far 

Top 30 Kenpom teams broken down into key statistical categories and toughest/most impressive wins situations are almost done .....as I get my prep ready for NCAAB tourney

I plan to do the same analysis to all potential teams to make tourney right up to that Sunday announcement.....because I want to be ready and just poach lines and make brackets to win cash

OK..... Completed my Analysis of Top Teams and Who is In, Who is Likely Out as of now:

-beating a TOP 10 Kenpom team plays you in if the record is good

-beating 2 x TOP 20 Kenpom teams should be enough

-beating multiple TOP 30 Kenpom teams with a good mix of levels, should get you in

REMEMBER, THE COMMITTEE DOESN'T CARE AS MUCH ABOUT WIN-LOSS RECORD as much as:

1. Consistency of beating good teams

2. Beating higher ranked teams 

3. Strength of Schedule (SOS)

4. In a Strong Conference

5. Strong Win- Loss Record

THEY WANT THE BEST SCENARIO OF TOUGHEST AND BEST TEAMS TO CREATE INTERESTING MATCHUPS/GAMES

10 TEAMS WITH VERY STRONG WIN-LOSS RECORDS, but did not beat anyone in the Top 30 Kenpom!

These Teams will have to fight their way through Conference Tourney to get there, unless the committee decides 1-2 of them can get a play in:

McNeese St. 23 - 3
Samford 23 - 4
Indiana St. 22 - 5
Drake 22 - 5
High Pt 22 - 6
San Fran 21 - 6
Vermont 21 - 6
Akron 19 - 6
Cornell 19 - 4
Princeton 19 - 3

TEAMS THAT ARE BELOW THE BUBBLE IN MY OPINION (but have time to play and get in, but they are below the bubble based on the teams quality they beat in the Top 30 Kenpom, which I have placed beside in brackets who they beat)

Need to Impress More
Iowa 15 - 11 (S.Hall, Wisc, Nebr)
Miami 15 - 11 (Clem, Pitt)
Minn 15 - 9 (Neb, Mich St., NW)
UNLV 14 - 10 (Crei, NM)
Utah 15 - 10 (Wake, STM, BYU, Wash St.) >>> have best case to move up!
Oregon 17 - 8 (Wash St.)
Colorado 17 - 9 (Wash St.)
Washington 14 - 12 (Gonzaga)
Ole Miss 19 - 6 (Florida)
Georgia 14- 11 (Wake )

TEAMS WHO ARE LIKELY IN ....based on who they beat and keeping their consistency the rest of the way. One more strong win vs a Top 30 likely cements a position for them:

Bubble Teams With Less Worry Based on Who Beat!
Appal St. 22 - 5 (Auburn)
VTECH 14 - 11 (Iowa St, Clem)
Syracuse 16 - 10 (UNC, Pitt)
Butler 16 - 10 (Ttech, Marq, Crei)
Kansas St 15 - 10 (Bayl, Kansas)

Next Tier
Grand Can. 24 - 2 (SDST)
Nevada 20 - 6 (TCU, ColSt,USU,SDST)
Boise 17 - 8 (St M,ColSt, SDST, NM)
Rutgers 14-10 (S.Hall, NW, Neb, Wisc)
CINCY 16 - 9 (BYU, TCU, Ttech)
NC State 16 - 9 (Clem, Virg, Wake)
J. Madison 24 - 3 (Mich St)
Santa Cl 17 - 10 (Wash St, Gonz)

REMEMBER, NONE OF THIS IS BASED ON MY LOVE OF CERTAIN TEAMS....just pure analytic comparisons on who they beat and how they are doing in their Conference and out of Conference games vs top Kenpom teams

This next Group of TEAMS have consistently done well in their conference, beat Top 30 Kenpom teams, are consistent and obviously have good records (WOULD BE SHOCKED if the Committee misses placing these teams no matter what!)

I will do a deep ranking analysis of key teams in NCAAB closer to the beginning of March. I am almost done the TOP 30 and might release that data:

No Play In Likely? Should be In: - not in order of rank below (out of Top 30 Kenpom)

(not posting their records/just admired who they have beaten in Top 30 Kenpom and will update why when done)

SOUTH FLORIDA (12-1 Conf/5-3 away)

FAU (10-3 Conf/9-5 away)

VIRGINIA (11-4 Conf/5-5 away)

 PITTSBURGH (8-6 Conf/6-2 away)

TCU (7-5 Conf/6-3 away)

 Seton Hall (9-5 Conf/5-6 away)

Northwestern (8-6 Conf/3-6 away)

 NEBRASKA (8-7 Conf/2-7 away)

UTAH ST (8-4 Conf/9-4 away)

Washington St. (11-4 Conf/5-3 away)

ST MARYS (12-0 Conf/8-2 away)

South Carolina (9-4 Conf/6-3 away)

 KENTUCKY (8-4 Conf/5-3 away)

 Mississippi St (6-6 Conf/4-6 away)

So far:

-Posted 14 teams  LIKELY IN besides the Kenpom Top 30

-Posted another 13 teams who are in the Bubble Convos but have a strong chance to be Added if they don't win Conference Tourney

-Posted another 10 teams who are just below the BUBBLE  in my opinion based on SOS and who they beat, and further, I posted another 10 more teams with very high win record teams who have not beaten a Top Kenpom team and will have to win their Conference Tourney most likely

= 47 TEAMS + 30 Kenpom Top teams + some Conference Tourney surprises

See Top 30 Kenpom Teams and more > https://kenpom.com/

Getting +3 for NW x Half U  

OVER 134.5 UCLA x Half U  

3-1 today (+2.5U) today  

ESPN BRACKETOLOGY: ....LETS SEE WHO THEY HAVE ON THE BUBBLE 

LAST FOUR IN
Ole Miss << NO! Fave team of mine, but they don't have the resume vs good teams
Nevada
Utah
Gonzaga

ON THE BUBBLE
LAST FOUR BYES
Butler
Boise St.
TCU
Nebraska
FIRST FOUR OUT
Wake Forest << switch it with OLE Miss who beat who???
Providence
Seton Hall
Cincinnati .......these 3 teams should be in and ESPN have not done their homework on who beat whom!!

NEXT FOUR OUT << reasonable except for Villanova on SOS and who they beat!!
St. John's
Villanova
Colorado
Memphis

Hilarious....ESPN has Kansas as a #2 seed ....haha, they are 4th in their conference! And, they lose most of their road games !!

Marquette as a 2 seed is interesting (Kansas got smoked by Marquette!) What's interesting, is that they have Wisconsin in the same bracket and Wisky smoked Marquette! This is what I mean about ESPN numbskills....sometimes

Putting Baylor at #3 in UCONN's bracket is interesting....I think they are a #4 or 5 seed based on their defense, maybe worse

Like Kansas, they tend to lose road games and neutral court matches against good teams

LETS SEE WHAT SHAKES OUT..... in 2-3 weeks

Some massive games for the NCAAB tourney placings.....go with motivation today!

VTECH needs to win

Kansas St needs to win but Texas may feel the same as well

Houston wants to maintain the #1 seed and have revenge in this game!!!

MY play today > Houston-Iowa St Under 128 x1U 

-when Houston goes on the road, they tend to score higher and then play LOCKDOWN defense at home for the fans

- first match in Iowa St was a win for the home team 57-53

My prediction > 67 - 55 Houston 

ESPN present Bracketology leaves out/places pressure on:

-Kenpom #26 Wake Forest OUT

-Kenpom #20 Gonzaga on the bubble even after defeating Kentucky on the road?

-Kenpom #50 Pittsburgh has beaten some tough teams, they are not in

-Kenpom #59 Seton Hall has some amazing scalps but not in

-Kenpom #62 Ohio State surely will shake up the thinking soon if they continue with a Purdue win on the weekend and some other key wins against much higher ranked Kenpom teams

-Kenpom #56 Providence has beaten 3 teams in the TOP 30 Kenpom and are out

-Kenpom #31 Villanova has beaten 3 teams in the TOP 30 but getting no respect to be there

-Kenpom #73 Kansas St with the 9th hardest SOS and has beaten Baylor AND Kansas is not there

-Kenpom #57 Iowa with the 5th hardest SOS and beating 2 TOP 30 is not in yet 

-Kenpom #36 Cincy with a 16-9 record and beating 2 TOP 30 teams is not in yet

THERE MAY BE OTHERS......watch out for these teams to take care of business in the next few weeks 

Virginia Tech #64 Kenpom today

.....will point out some others tomorrow

@Last2thirst

  BOL on your plays today. Thanks for the incite and info

Thanks