Monday.....feel there are no high motivation games, however, I feel Baylor will be thinking they need to win to not fall too far in the bracket and vs a strong rival in TCU. TCU has a very tough home court so it just depends on the line.
Sharp money has come onto the +3 to drop it to +2.5
I am going to watch this game. I would love +3 to +3.5
Wait for Tuesday games
One TOTAL I am watching..... Prairie View @ worst team in college who struggles to score 60 pts and are not showing any signs in the last few that they care to try to press for a win. Then talent is not there
Will PV get over 75 on the road here?
If the total moves to 136.5, I think its an attractive total to move to for an extra HALF U.....taking HALF U for UNDER 136 right now
@Last2thirst
Hey quick question I don't follow cbb much at all but dabble with March madness to spice the games up
Been looking at box score a bit past week or 2 and thought totals seemed up a bit from years past...
The problem being I don't follow it close enough to know if the numbers are actually up
Seems like more teams scoring in the high 70s-80s than 3-5 years ago
Or is it just another standard year?
I think the huge upwards scoring trend in nba the last 5-10 years could be influencing my thoughts ...
Has the college game been on a scoring trend increase some what like the nba has?
Thanks
@dubzdummyz, sorry about the late reply (long day at work)
The 3 pt shot has altered the game tremendously and the Euro 3 pt play from big man shooting on the outside off of a screen or switch is the new fad so it means that College ball becomes a copycat eventually, and that is where we are. Also, College has put in a shot clock and so PACE in a game is way up.....I used to have a game pace stat page and can find it if you are interested and you just compare two fast playing teams and go OVER ....seemed to work in the first half of the season
Hope this answers you question
P.S....analytics has shown in the NBA that teams that do not get off a shot within 10 seconds tend to do poorer in the standings.....so I think coaches understand that they may fall behind when they are not utilizing their bigs on the perimeter OR having their point guard, come up the court and stride to the top of the key and let one rip quickly (at least 5 times a game)......the best teams have a guard that can do this at a high % which picks up the speed of play even more....
Motivation games Tuesday:
Pitt +6.5 @ Clemson ...Pitt may feel this might be another chance to get noticed while Clemson feels they need to solidify a spot with an emphatic win....tough one....would lean Pitt if I got +7.5 and Clemson if I got -4.5
VTECH @ Syracuse....last chance saloon type of game for both. VTECH took care of Virginia on the road easily and the Cavs play a pressure man-to-man that switches to a zone type of defense like Syracuse at times. Does VTECH hold the key to unlock Syracuse 2-3 Jim Boeheim defense that can be maddening for visiting teams if they are forced to take outside shots in a dome? The last couple of years, this has been a homer series so I lean Syracuse but would not be surprised if VTECH fights like hell and pulls this one out....NO PLAY but a major motivation game
BYU +7 @ Kansas x HALF U ....Kansas is likely very cozy now moving up the rankings so I expect BYU to be less so due to some recent tough games and their shooting and defense is good enough to cover this ...if this hits -8, I will add another HALF
Texas +4 @ Texas Tech x 1U ..... when I am high on Texas in a matchup, I tend to lose. I was surprised by TTECH losing so much to Texas on the road and barely beating TCU at home.....yet Texas rolled over TCU by 11 in their building. I expect this will end up a tight game, therefore with recent falls in the rankings
Nevada +7 @ Colorado St x 1U
-Vegas seems to be leading the herd here..... Nevada beat CST in their own building by 13! And, they have beaten UNLV and UTAH ST in their buildings too!!! WOW
-line seems too good to be true and yes Colorado St has revenge and yes has high win motivation but Nevada is playing to get in and Col St is already declared likely to be in
- if this goes to +7.5, will buy 1 more UNIT in game
First off - any shot clock incorporated, yes (no more Princeton type offenses that tire out their opponents ON offense to get easy buckets on backdoor layups haha
Secondly - reducing it, yes
Teams on ESPN Bracketology board at rank #7 or lower to #1 who are most likely very safe to be at the tourney and can absorb some losses the rest of the way
#7 seeds > Texas Tech, Utah St, Colorado St, BYU
#6 > Dayton, South Carolina, Florida, St Marys
#5 > Washington St, Kentucky, Clemson, Wisconsin
#4 > Baylor, San Diego St, Illinois, Auburn
#3 > Alabama, Duke, Creighton, Iowa St.
#2 > Marquette, Kansas, Tennessee, N. Carolina
#1 > Purdue, Houston, UCONN, Arizona
Total Ideas:
Boston @ Lehight (141.5)
-Boston tends not to score over 70 unless they are pushed at home and on the road, they rarely push the game vs a home team so I see them hitting only 55-64 pts and Lehigh winning with 70-74 pts based on Boston's style of play on the road....since the total is climbing, going to see if I can get 142 ....now sitting at 141
No Play yet
IPFW@ Wright St (OVER 168)x 1U
-love playing Wright St near the end of the season and their their conference tourney year after year....they rarely disappoint in effort to win or score a lot of points!
- these teams scored over 200 on IPFW's court
-IPFW has scored mid-80's the past few road games and Wright St has score mid-90's the past few games and pretty consistently the past 10 games minus 1-2 games
High Motivation Games/Sides (on fire picking these):
James Madison -8.5 @Georgia St x HALF U
-J-Mad has been a dominant team for two years and are pissed off they are not on the ESPN NCAAB board at 26 - 3 and that stems from losing two close games to Appalachian St this year........I guarantee you, if they play App St again, they will not likely lose a 3rd time in a row!
-motivation is very high on this team right now with a fire burning if you look at their streak of 8 wins....the only games that got near this line were against teams with strong offenses and Georgia St does not have one
NW +5.5 @ Maryland x HALF U
-I was tempted to take Maryland knowing that they are in the 50's in Kenpom ranking despite a 15-13 record and they therefore may feel they can still slide in the backdoor of the NCAAB tourney with a strong win push
-BUT, I chose NW based on their ability to navigate tough matchups and even win them (OT with Purdue and Illinois on the road and winning one of those!) and Maryland is a tough court to win on year after year
-NW is not secured yet for NCAAB tourney so that will drive the players this game.....this one should be tight (within 5 pts the whole game)
Providence +11.5 @ Marquette x HALF U
-this is a cheeky line because, Marquette if motivated could blow away Providence but they are securely positioned as a 2-seed
-Providence needs to win or keep playing very high level vs strong seeds to convince committee and I think they will this game
Auburn +6.5 @ Tennessee
-I am laying off this game because I feel the revenge factor and the fact that Tenn wants to secure #2 seed might be strong but strong enough to cover 6.5 pts???
-Auburn won at home by 9 and were up by much more for most of the game...they are a #4 seed so might feel motivated to move up?
Colorado -10.5 is a strong lean....have no choice but to continue to stomp road teams in their building to impress committee
South Carolina +5.5 is a strong lean....they stomped TAM by almost 40 in their building and yes TAM must win to get a berth so the line going up actually presents a potential opportunity to bet against home team and side with one of the best defenses+ clutch shooting teams in the country
Will likely take one of the above for 1U later in the evening if the lines are similar and I have early success.... 6 - 0 the last two nights so regression could rear its ugly head today in the early games
The rest of the card has some good games but not as much motivation in them as the ones above ^^^ 
One other motivation game I missed to consider......
Virginia ML @ Boston College might be worth a look
-Virginia on last chance to make it in NCAAB tourney and MUST WIN
-B.C. smoked them last year in their when at home, but I remember Virginia was secure to be in the tourney at that time and sided with B.C. getting + points......this situation this year is completely different and Virginia will be motivated
-the question is.....how bad are they despite being 20-8? Is it just motivation?
BET ON BRUCE PEARL'S motivation tactics @ Tenn!
-this line has officially gone to a wacky number so I am taking the +7.5 x HALF U for Auburn
-this might be the best and most seasoned Auburn team in a while and the last two years had games @ Tennessee as very tight, or less than the line that is posted now
Same with Maryland line....I feel Vegas is trapping spread players here ....ML on both of these might be ok
+HALF U more on NW > can get +6.5 now @ Maryland
Saturday: Not seeing too many motivation games I can latch onto one side
Villa@ Prov UNDER 135.5 x HALF U
-with a berth in NCAAB tourney on the line, i expect defensive focus and each half court segment in the game to be highly contested .....first match of the year only brought in 118 pts
High Point @ Longwood Over 153.5 x HALF U
-been playing Longwood Overs in parlays not posted in my thread....for quite a while now and successfully almost every other game
-these teams combined for 168 in their first matchup and since then, Longwood has bumped up their pace and scoring!
Iowa ML x HALF U @ NW
-sharps attacked the +4 for Iowa to the point its not worth it to grab unless you go for ML .... IOWA is desperate, NW is solidly in the the tourney so not a bad play taking Iowa ....see a key injured to a key NW guard/scorer
Tenn @ Alabama (watching)
-this one will be a humdinger and Bama is going to try to bully a sometimes cocky Tennessee team.... I lean to the OVER on this one despite the 170 number!
Sparty +10.5 @ Purdue (will consider later)
-hunch game that Sparty keeps it to single digits loss........they have played strong teams close on the road except for one game losing by 14 to Wisky
-first game of the season and Purdue likely in maintenance mode here....no need to press the button
Gonzaga +2.5 x1U @ St. Marys
-which side do you take when one side can smell blood in the water due to injuries, AND THEY MUST WIN in order to avoid missing the NCAAB tourney??? MOTIVATION PLAY OF THE DAY!
-STM loss a productive all around forward recently and now their centre is a touch wonky....GONZAGA is big and motivated!
Looking ahead.....
Tuesday:
-Syracuse sneakily on a roll and up to 20-10 @ Clemson and if they win...??? Looking for sizable pts to jump on them..Clemson is a 5 or 6 seed right now and secure, but playing with less passion than mid season it seems to me
-Nevada @ Boise..... I see Nevada is slotted for a 10 seed and they may feel they need one more impressive road win to solidify a berth....they beat Utah St last week, with this mindset so if I can get +4 or higher, I will be on this like a fat kid on a cream filled donut
Cuse +9.5 x HALF U .....was hoping for something around this number
Kansas -11.5 x HALF U....healthy and wanting to put a beat down on K-State after losing to them in their building by a lot
Nevada +5.5 x 1U is my PLAY OF THE DAY > revenge for what Boise did on their homecourt and they are firing on all cylinders ....that said, Boise is a tough homecourt
-also playing UNDER 142 x HALF U....this will be a gritty game!
These are all motivation games and that is what is driving my bus until we get past a couple/few rounds in NCAAB tourney
Quickly....motivation picks...early games
NW +9.5 x HALF U ....I initially leaned to Sparty because now THEY HAVE TO WIN....and that means they will be a little uptight vs a NW team who loves playing on the road .....the pressure to cover this and halt a streak is too much in my mind
S.Carolina +6.5 x HALF U ....this team does not like to lose and are at home....their defense is better than Tenn and that is saying something....this is a letdown game for Tennessee after last major road win
will add later.....
830 pm and later games....
Marquette +5.5 x HALF U .... Marquette got spanked vs UCONN on the road and Kolek the warrior played through pain in the last one to lead them to a tough victory. I see a close one here because Marquette wants this more! UCONN can face them in the Conference tourney and press their buttons then, but they will be less motivated than their hosts.
Iowa St -7.5 x HALFU..... have not had a lot of tough games lately and they relish playing them at home....BYU is sneaky good, but IWST will be motivated to make a statement in the second half and win by double digits
No play of the day type of plays tonight!
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