Season Thread - Totals Mostly (some sides)

Tuesday Motivation:

Villanova at home vs Butler (probably thinking they should be on the tourney board and not Butler!)

-Butler will fight in this game but last 4 games at home vs Butler, Villa wins by 10+

NC State at home vs Syracuse 

-with a strong record, NC State has a chance based on beating good teams and the fact they have the 31st SOS

-with an upset win, Cuse joins the tourney convo?

TexAM at home vs Arkansas

-have lost 2 in a row and one suspect loss to Vandy so committee needs to see them right the ship or slip out perhaps?

-Arkansas is fading fast

Iowa @ Mich St 

-will be taking points here as Sparty is pretty much a lock to be in the tourney 

-Iowa not in yet and a Sparty scalp would put them on the board I believe if others slip

Wake Forest at home vs Pitt

-you have to think that both teams are seething looking in to tourney bracketology

-at 13-0 at home, expect Wake Forest to remind people that they deserve a spot in the tourney but it won't be easy vs a gritty road team in Pittsburgh who I just might take if the spread it +8 or higher

BYU at home vs Baylor

-I personally believe Baylor is underperforming despite having one of the best college coaches and motivators

-Baylor is so so on the road and this BYU team is a tough out for any team....will be siding with the home team likely and think BYU might get a push up the seeding ladder with a win

SDST @ Utah St

-great game to watch and I will take the dog if I am getting more than 3 pts

- Utah St has to be careful they do not slip too much as their cupboard of wins vs stronger teams is thin

SF @ St. Marys

-St Marys will be in for sure with their defeat of Gonzaga....will they take the foot off now?

-SF has been dominate at home and vs weaker teams but NO strong team scalps.....I think they will be supremely motivated in this one to try and get one so any spread higher +7.5, I just might take them and ML with a sprinkle

Told ya a fired up VTECH would be motivated.....and VIRGINIA knows they are in so out for a stroll. BET these situations over the next 2 weeks!

@Last2thirst

 Iowa St. / Hou 133.0

Hope you grabbed it!!! Beauty line 

VEGAS LAID AN OLE TRAP LINE RAISE??? We are going to find out. I only played one unit and almost $100 in parlays with a lot of things open to cash from tennis, soccer, other basketball, hockey, etc  if they comes 

7 - 2 after almost 6 minutes gone...... what I thought !!

While I am not SHARP with my bet sizes, I am 'SHARP' to know what certain scenarios will bring. This is my time of the year to make a lot of money by not blowing my wad on large bets early and mid season....now my parlays and some straight bets should pad me up pretty well

I was down about $500 on the season at the start of Feb but have climbed to above even with all kinds of parlays that I use....so when I post now one play to focus on, its probably something I am using with a lot of things.....if you see multiple plays and Double Ups, I couldn't find a star to parlay ....find one about once every 7-14 days.... this one was it!

I tell ya, as soon as the line opened, SHARPS hammered it down to 127 and then its slowly risen today but I think its public money and Vegas inching it up trying to tease. This game was built up or first place in the BIG12

Well, maybe this was in the plan? Sleepy first half and then a 3 pt exhibition to go OVER?? haha....ah shit. I hope not. Things were going like they should. Sampson is blasting his team in this timeout that they have to be careful what they wish for with Cyclones 3 pt shot prowess......

What a bad beat on my parlays....fuck...jekyl and hyde game

@Last2thirst

Yeah BS, I didn’t watch the FG but my laptop was on ESPN. So I glance over and saw the score to be 5-10 Hou in the first 5 minutes or so. Thought we were gold. Only game I took action on. Nothing big. 
The line mov’t was telling. But you never know gambling. Go with or against your gut, and taking the Over did cross my mind but sometimes just a crap shoot. 
BOL today!

Good Luck today bud  

Iowa +9.5 x HALFU << looks like the best value on the board

Leaning Pitt +6.5 but no play yet....

Want the SF line to go higher

Lines opened up roughly in the area where motivation lies at the highest point.......BOL today. Being cautious and waiting for a spot to hit after that bad beat on the Over yesterday 

Thanks Wise 

Betting Motivation

Iowa is fired up....Sparty already booked for tourney

Syracuse fired up ....wants in

Butler hears they are in....Villanova wants in 

Some good games later....who stands to move up in them?

Games is not over but Creighton up by 14 at the half with more motivation than UCONN!

Alabama and perhaps UCONN are 2 nice scalps for them, which might move them to #2 or #3 seed for sure!

Committee has to SQUEEZE in Villanova #29 Kenpom and Wake Forest #26 Kenpom now...

If San Fran beats St Marys which looks possible, they are going to need a seat at the table!

Wednesday with 2 high motivation games .....

Ole Miss @ Miss St..... home team can cement a bid potentially and knock out an undeserving Ole Miss team who I like as a fan, but they are not deserving of some other teams who have fought tough teams much more than they have.

Col St. @ New Mexico..... NM looking to crown them as a run and gun team to fear going into NCAAB tourney

Other than that, looks like I am taking a night off

Wow, SF covered the +7.5 ....  I played it but did not post (HALF U to see if my thesis is correct about motivation. I laid off Pitt because I reasoned they were equally highly motivated and Wake obviously more)

Looking for motivation games on Thursday

@kidd22 

According to ESPN Bracketology:

TEAMS THAT ARE IN/BUT ON THE HOT SEAT IF THEY LOSE: 

Northwestern

Nebraska

Virginia 

Nevada

Seton Hall 

Providence

Gonzaga

Texas Am  ..........focus on these 8 teams PLUS, the following in line who are next in line/knocking on the door:

JUST OUT OF BRACKET BUT READY TO MOVE IN:

Wake Forest

Ole Miss

Utah

Butler

Villanova

Drake

Cincy 

Colorado

GAMES TODAY TO FOCUS ON:

ND @ SYRACUSE  -5.5 << I believe they think they can get their record to 20 wins and make it (16 - 10 right now) so Boeheim is coaching them to win every game with urgency, and part of the Conf tourney, if not winning getting to final to cement a spot

Houston @ Baylor +2.5  << feels like a tester game for both to see who is more ready....well, Houston just played one and Baylor went to the West Coast .....really like the OVER in this one at only 135 x 1U

-Baylor has to re-gain so mojo so expect them to compete like crazy

Duke @ Wake F  -2.5 << this line has gone from -2 BUT I am hard pressed to bet this game and if I did, I would lean taking points with Duke's defense and clutch shot making ...being on the road does not matter to them BUT Wake Forest is 14 - 0 at home! Wake Forest won by 11 the last time they hosted Duke 15 months ago. Gain this win and they should be in easily now

WVU @ Iowa St UNDER 143.5 x 1U >> doubt WVU get very much on the inside scoring and Iowa St has a strong perimeter defense to prevent 202nd 3 pt WVU to gain easy looks....I expect WVU to score only 52-60 pts and Iowa St to score 80-85.....should be fine here having above 140+ pts to play with

Iowa +8.5 @ Illinois x HALF U ..... like the nice number I am getting with Illinois in cruise mode and IOWA stepping on the impress gas pedal! They took care of business and won a similar line @ Sparty last game

Cincy @ TCU +5.5 ....if this line rises to +6.5, this one might be worth a shot with Cincy fighting for a spot in tourney

S.Carolina @ Ole Miss -3.5  << parlay key if I ever saw one!!!..... Ole Miss is super tough at home and went to S.Carolina and hung around within 3 pts on the road!

PARLAYx 1U > Syracuse ML with Ole Miss ML

Alabama @ Kentucky UNDER 175.5 x HALF U ....if you have watched either team in the past 5 games, you would have noticed that they are producing stretches in games where they compete and bear down to play some defense. I think the importance of this game for Kentucky cannot be overstated and so as such, they will be focused in the lane and on the perimeter to prevent Alabama from getting easy buckets.....I do not see a gunslinging type of game since it serves both teams no purpose getting ready for the Conference of NCAAB tourney. At most I believe the score will be 88 - 86 and that still puts it at UNDER. Their history shows one score got to 171 last year

Will comment on some more later.... 

L2T.......

Got Iowa St +9.5

IAdecimal 

Big changes coming in the NCAAB list of who's In and Who's Slipping out...

 Wake Forest should be in now - KENPOM moves them up to #20

Colorado moves up to #30 .....I still have them out or on the Bubble-maybe

 No longer in the Top 30 and Fading:

New Mexico - should be still in but can't slip now

 Texas - slipping and has to be careful

Sleepers to Make it:

Pittsburgh

Syracuse

Kansas St

Oklahoma

NC State

Probably Saying Bye Soon....

Villanova - 15 - 12 .....they have to go 5-1 over their next set of games 

Virginia....I think they are in trouble 

Texas AM ....have to go 4-1 or better next 5 games

Iowa....must go on a deep Conference run and streak to end the season

Butler....needs a signature win in the next while, preferably on the road or in the Conf tourney

- Ole Miss....bad week for them and the record still looks fine BUT....haven't beat anyone in the Top 30!

SAY BYE!

-Georgia

-Washington

-UTAH

-Indiana

-CINCY

-Miami

-VTECH

-Oregon

I took USF +3 @ -120 x 1U and had it ready to post 1 hour ago.....but been dealing with issues of access denied to a couple of sites.

Sorry I did not get it in on time as I see its past 12 noon.....drives me nuts sometimes trying to figure out problems on the computer and still not resolved!

My other play is Memphis +2 x 1U ....its a later game 

-FAU appears to be in the tourney

-Memphis is not so this will help their resume

Other game of significance..... Sparty is in but they lost to Iowa who had more motivation last game and jumped them for a win in Sparty's building. Ohio St is in the same situation. I do not see any scenario where Sparty is out of the tourney so....

TAKE Ohio St. +9.5 x HalfU with same idea as last week..... Buckeyes beat Purdue but then lost to Minny who is also in a dogfight

Avoiding Minny @ Nebraska...each need this win

GL TODAY

Motivation betting is working ...... 

3 - 0 today (+2.5 U)

Ohio State wants it, they actually won outright! .....and Sparty knows they are in no matter what!