BOWL STUFF

I'll have my usual stuff up sometime next week...

$ 1st step?...pick the SU winner...they almost always cover too

$ Forget trying to understand MOTIVATION > rather AX yourself - "is this where they wanted to be... when the season began" ? > has their 'story' been written - their goals already accomplished, or is there more work to be done ?

$ Bowl history, and HC's history in preparing his team. Embarrassed LY ?, look to play this year. Huge blow out LY, look to fade (maybe)

$ In -game / halftime action?....team that is down, almost NEVER comes back to win. IF ready to play, it is obvious from the start.

$ As always, can team A DISRUPT what team B likes to do?, and vice versa. IE. ...... can they strip away their IDENTITY?

$ The MATCH-UP takes priority in the later bowls - where BOTH teams are fully focused

BOL boys...............

ONE UNIT

SJSU -6' (-115 @ BAS)

* MTW vs MAC is the 1st consideration..... slam dunk MTW

* huge match-up edge to SJSU.... Spartan edge in the trenches will be the difference here

Couldn't agree anymore with you here Bookie SJSU has been money all year.

good man Maceo.... BOL.......

smaller plays

Miami +3'

Colorado +12

     *may add to both, will play Miami ML too

         > Buffs are maybe one of teams that lose SU, but still cover (big Sam should find a way to win) Buffs 1H not bad idea 

Good stuff BA!   

Yeah good notes .. gotta know yer team .. 

I mentioned in mine with all the bowl team opt outs we might have a pretty well vetted field for who wants to play... doesn't mean they'll show up ready to rock and roll but I think most teams coulda just called it quits outside the SEC tough to say not interested when playing in the big time although could see some of them even maybe doing it .. either way seems like if the team just wasn't all that interested they had a way out and im sure schools wouldn't object to not throwing money away flying out to frisco bowls etc .. probably lose money paying telemarketers trying to sell your 2000 or whatever ticket allotment lol..

Also not sure if bowls are really bound to the conf standings pairings this year at least with the smaller bowls .. maybe they are but either way seems like we're finding a few decent matchups .. coastal / liberty (yay!) .. buff / marsh .. byu / ucf ... houston / hawaii lol maybe / prob not lol .. but interesting matchups / interested teams and don't have to wait a full month here its pretty quick turnaround on some of these which I think is good too .. outside of injuries, NFL / other opt outs maybe just a few teams you really might want to watch out for motivation wise but even then .. take UGA -6.5 / Cincy .. i thought UGA would be least motivated team of all time last year and tack on the opt outs, etc .. killed baylor from start to finish... yeah focus on whose winning .. think UGA rolls here btw .. 

Good luck!

Yeah was gunna mention a few teams where the 'mo' might be a problem but yeah can spend all day thinking about that and be dead wrong .. think you got a good one taking Miami... we sure King not off to NFL camp tho?.... I think longer the wait the worse it will be and also teams playing on xmas eve or xmas might be worth looking at whether they're really into it ..  seems like quite a few holiday games get goofy at least my review says so who knows this year .. so gunna violate yer rule number one above and say might want to check the pulse on these before playing more than just fun bucks .. 

Okla.State .. this year .. woof.. 
Miss St .. lol 3-7 lolol.. how the heck ..  they went out on a good note but dude i don't even think leach cares about this one def a tryout for next year.. didn't seem to care for bowl games before and what player wants to put up with him from now till new years day .. best bet no show.. tulsa makes it interesting especially if Zevin and those boys are up for the challenge..  
Texas .. lucky to have Sam .. 
S.Carolina .. woof .. UAB happy to take this scalp.. recall great bowl LY vs appy .. 
Tulane .. they really psyched up to go to boise .. play Nevada?. mr.cool dude pratt is but doubt everyone will be ..
Appy going to texas to play UNT.. fun.... lucky to have sr QB and lotta team continuity on O .. feels like Letrell accepted the bowl as hail mary to save his job.. why in the world those guys want their heads kicked in one last time, looked dead last game .. 
ULL .. they weren't up for Miami LY thats for sure .. epic disappointment with the champ game . would check if some of the real big stars say f it .. 
Wisco .. playin wake lol .. man what a downer of a year .. almost lost to minny that offense suuuucks..  wake shows up here.. 

One other angle to think about ... like I mentioned up above it seems we got a few teams in the SEC which mighta been forced into a bowl that any other year they might not have gotten in .. looks like they aren't qualified for... and some may actually be not interested in .. you tell me .. S.Car, UK, Miss.St, maybe Ole Miss, Tenn all buying into the bowl game?... maybe Mizzou / Ark are a couple teams that I'd expect to show up really feelin the bowl experience .. maybe there's one or two really don't care.. (s.car/ miss st?) .. Funny feeling we might find interesting angle on SEC teams .. everyone thinks they aint showing up ... terrible record .. looked bad all year (in conf).. then we find out why SEC just way better than everyone else ... tough to play an angle like that but I think most of those teams will be showing up here .. we'll see .. maybe not bulldogs lol .. 

Tulsa -2.5 (Miss.St) and Indy -6.5 (Ole Miss) .. already most SEC underdogs in bowl history? lol

Great stuff here! Bowl games are an outstanding opportunity to really find the angles described above. Excellent topic and thank you Bridge1 and BA for your input. Outstanding info for everyone and that's what it's all about!

Loving the SJSU pick, Book!

a bunch of ideas that i think have worked well in the past,

1) running dominance is key. offense and defense both teams........ doesn't require as much practice to get precision. yards per carry, rushing yards and something as simple as which team runs more worked well.

2) teams with lots of NFL talent that had disappointed season are great FADE..... i think of miami hurricanes in general when i think of this. although they had decent season this year.

3) teams that had incredible seasons often come back down to earth..... the momentum of the amazing season is lost with time off. coaches have more time to study why XYZ team did so well this year.

mostly #1.. run-based betting systems do well

the bettors with the best feel of what teams are encapsulated as a whole, staff to players make more profit from the bowl season than the whole year combined.. taking everything you know about both teams all season, what they want to do, what they can't do and you know who these teams and coaches are.. Then figuring out the feel spots on which team needs the win more, bowls make for the most unique spots in a sport like football.. Because if one team doesn't come into a game wanting to win as much as the other.. football is human chess and any team on amateur level can lose to anyone if only one team is armed to attack. 

We've seen it numerous times, year after year for decades now.. in the past it's the best teams that end up with the most time off and feel comfortable in what they've done and told what they should be able to do to an underdog in Championship games. Some of the great teams in years past never even won a Championship simply because for a month the underdog prepped better to peak for that moment as the favorite sat in comfort of how they think they will play.. This year is different because there's no time gap, so now that depth plays more of a role than ever because it's not just a one shot deal after both teams getting to revamp the soldiers before the game at full strength.. 

One big difference in handicapping bowl games over the last few years is knowing if any players are skipping the game over injury concerns leading up to the NFL draft. Don't discount the motivation factor. It is real.

Thanks again Book for your heads up on grabbing lines early before they move. There always seems to be a good bet or two fading the MAC come bowl season and this year is no different. SJST just squashed Boise St and they should do the same to Ball St. 

impressive work boys................

adding (all smaller)

Hogs +6

BYU -6*

  * will wait for drop or buy if cheap...might add later tho (UCF O vs BYU D makes me nervous tho)

Bumping BYU - 6 to one unit play

Adding

UTSA +14 smaller

UCF best receiver opting out.....not sure who else. Cant bide well for team mentally.....Pretty sure BYU is gonna bring it after a bad performance vs CC....UCF O plays so fast it hurts their defense....

BA

UCF QB is really good with almost identical numbers to the stud BYU QB. However...as Train just said they had their top receiver opt out. Out of 30 touchdowns thrown 10 went to him. Also UCF hasn't played a game in almost a month meaning their offense will be very rusty.

 everybody

smaller play

Tulane -3 2H

    * slight violation of above rule maybe, a Willie Fritz homer play... shocked if they don't make this (a bit) competitive 2H...Can't recall a time when they stunk BOTH halves...plus don't think Nevada can be trusted to extend margin........

GL BookieAssassin always nice ton cya  Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays 

Bumpin' the mighty Road Runners to one unit play at +14

Can't imagine ULL is able to get it together here.... day after Christmas / off disappointing CCarolina cancellation....a very disappointing season at end...after beating IOWA STATE to begin things... they finish vs UTSA wtf

      >> recall UTSA a tough team /strong dog (covered 9/12)...only lost by 7 @ BYU and 8 @ UAB...their D will struggle at some point sure, but O should be able to move the chains and stay close

HAPPY HOLIDAYS boys.....

You to BRO-THER!!!! 

never in doubt!!! ha

hey Bridge ....