BOWL STUFF

Yeah UTSA is on my list too!!! already got under 60 .. whose scoring 30 in this one?... 

We see any personnel issues going on there?.. think everyone on UTSA will be down for this one but could see Sinerely "Awesome" McCormick and maybe Rashad "Ultimate" Wisdom best safety head out to NFL school early since both are pretty good ... those guys play and we get some favorable motivation differential and maybe a little luck ... wouldn't count the Roadrunners out of a win here ..  ... low scoring win lol .. 

G-Southern maybe one to watch .. might run over LA Tech .. -6.5 not real sexy but think they'll at least show up after getting rocked by Lib last year.. 

I like GS too.....but (maybe) with 3rd string QB?

     $ maybe wait to see if he's out....then bet reduced line or play in-game... maybe LT gets up early > GS takes over late

Yeah then not left laying a bunch of points pleading for a late FG with a minute left lol

Dude UAB cancelled they were going to DESTROY that S.Car team .. not happy .. 

that ULL / UTSA under...... agree 60 is too high..

   >>  but watch out on the under (bowls) where the favorite has little interest ...because playing D is tough....I think UTSA moves the ball / ULL should of course keep pace....1H might be very low scoring / but 2H > 4Q esp might get crazy

Thanks guys for the input about Geo. Southern....was really liking this game......Bridge is this a play for you?

BA I'm thinking with a large halftime lead, BYU gonna slow things down on offense in 2nd half, continue to play solid defense. Thinking of an under play. If you have an opinion, it would be greatly appreciated,

7272 - if you have BYU for game.... I wouldn't give anything back just for some action

     * difficult to tell.....problem is UCF will either score really fast, or give it up...really fast....then BYU might score ....really fast ha.....BYU likely lets QB show out......IMO they likely keep pushing it....UCF pass D and esp RZ D is TURRIBLE ................

GS / La Tech - at 6' with their best 3 offensive players likely out (QB Werts doubtful / RB's King and Kennedy already done)....combined with their fondness for close games with weak teams.... I might back off here

   * lost to Army by 1.....beat : ULM by 5 ....SAla by 7 .....TXSt by 2 ....Fighting Camels by 1

   * also a much better home team

La Tech stinks you bet..... but can't ignore they have WON their last 3 bowls, all as dog.....and COVERED them by 85 POINTS wtf

adding smaller play

Buffalo -4

     $ ordinarily no way in hell would I do this vs a great (usually) bowl team.... but it appears the Herd have QUIT > and now their 2 best players have QUIT THE TEAM.... RB Knox ....LB Beckett....and also st LT (6-8/350)... Buffalo always makes me nervous, so smaller play only

I do have BYU for game, and thanks for talking me down. I'm a firm believer in taking the win and moving on. But man, I've seen these Cats play. They aint scared of running it. Coach seems like a decent human being. Don't see him running it up. Heat check for me, 3/4 unit play. 

@lmb4321 ..... I'm looking at G-So but but better make sure they're coming ready to steam roll all over these guys if we're laying 6.5 .. don't forget LT has been this chip on yer shoulder underdog this year played UTSA real tough, coulda beat them .. beat UAB in a shootout .. (how?!?!) .. tons of new faces and freshman I'm sure they're all excited for a game they really weren't destined for this year but stars aligned for them .. 

UCF with 2 snaps on their QB bench .. quadray jones .. would be cruel for Heuple to pull his QB and have Jones in anytime before maybe a late last drive .. Really want Wilson to stay in there .. UCF scores off the bat here and think we can count on BYU keeping Wilson in a bit longer .. think we will get the backup D and that might be helpful for the total .. already on BYU -3.5 and Over 70 so feeling good .. if looking for action I wouldn't tempt fate trying to think your way into BYU slow rolling h2 when they've got a monster G-5 chip on their shoulder.. really both teams do ... also BYU shouldn't feel bad .. UCF does this to everyone so lol .. no last second navy kneel downs i wouldn't think .. 

Agree on that was gunna post last night at -3.5 and said nah i'll wait .. now 4 ... for some reason it really feels like Buffalo missing that championship = going to grind this team into the ground / win this for coach liepold (who just can't be around much longer right?) ... did it to Charlotte LY after missing out on the champ game .. for Marsh it really does feel like they lost to Rice, lost to UAB and we don't know what is gunna show up here .. sure a few will but .. Knox was a really exceptional running back... his backup is okay but no way on the same level .. 

In other news yeah Auburn got turned down by like 3 G-5 coaches already .. BAAAAHAHAHAHA

yeah i coulda said all that for the APPY / UNT H2 lolol .. yeah we'll see .. super duper degen bet that we don't need to waste money on .. for sure .. 

yup, but that NTX turnstile D..................

   $ same principle too I mentioned earlier..... playing D is much tougher...especially for a team that is less than FULLY FOCUSED....they might do it for awhile, but seldom for 4Q

adding smaller play

Memphis / FAU 1H under 25'

   *eggspecting just a nasty 1H... Memphis / QB in his last game (probably) waking up 2H

Whats up BA, glad to see you offering some wisdom on how to bet bowl games.  As we both know there's so many diff factors that play a significant role in having a profitable bowl season.  Obviously we cant approach this bowl season like a typical year, since there are so many new variables that weve never had to deal with, such as: teams with 2 wins, opt outs both before the season and before bowls (several programs opted out of the bowl game), teams with huge disparities in actual playing time (5 games vs 13), covid restrictions while traveling to bowl cities, disparity is amount of time since last game, amount of bowl practices, and incomplete impressions of teams- This is esp true for teams from Big 10, Pac 12, MWC, MAC, and other conferences that started so late that several teams have played less than 5 times. 

 I'm not exactly sure what metrics are the most important, or how to gauge each program's health in each category.  I ultimately still think motivation is among the most important factors when capping this years bowl season.  (Nevada motivated to bounce back after complete 2nd half meltdown to somehow lose chance to play for MWC, only 2 weeks ago)  (BYU- Last time Zach Wilson will be w/ team and needed big game for draft.  Rest of team motivated to show their loss to coastal carolina was a fluke and a scheduling issue- They were rightfully insulted by ranking all year, and clearly shouldve been in better bowl)  

@Bridge1

 Good stuff... thx 

@bookieassassin

 Incredible insight.... Top Shelf    

BA - been reading your threads all season.  Huge thanks for all the insight and useful info you and the other posters supply in this thread throughout the season.  Nice to see some traditional Covers threads still exist.  So many threads nowadays seem like they are started by attention grabbing, chest thumping, newbie Squares that flip a coin and post a pick.

Happy holidays and Merry Christmas to all.

BA - thanks for all your insights + thoughts so far. Your bowl thread is always one of my favorites to follow.

you end up decide backing off the GS L Tech game?

Small play

LT / GS. Over 48

added one unit play 

Cinn +7 / ML