BA - Disagree with you on Texas. Yes, I am a homer. I think Texas D will do just enough to keep Colorado at bay. Sam will have a good game, but I think Bijon Robinson will run wild on that Colorado D. I also think Colorado's record is misleading. They beat UCLA in the first game in boulder, barely beat a bad Arizona team, and barely beat a SDSU team at hime that was not as good as normal. Plus they be beat a Stanford team without QB Davis Mills. Sure, Herman is not a dog in a bowl game, where he has done well. But, there is a sense of urgency for Texas to show the big cigars that Herman is the guy. A beat down of Colorado will not prove anything. However, it should go a long way in back the barking hounds, for at least a while...
With Texas best defensive player (and the best player on the field) Joseph Assai out (preparing for the NFL draft), I look for Colorado to have some success running the ball on the Texas defense and play a little keep away from Ehlinger and the offense. Texas MIGHT be able to cover, but I like the under 65 much more than the spread. No real home field advantage for Texas in the Alamo Bowl this year due to covid restrictions. It won't have the same feel as in years past.
TRAIN - too many dynamics to mess with IMO..... 2 offensive coaches in a crap bowl, that neither has a ton of interest in.... so I don't think D will be a focus here. Leach using it just for the reps.... Tulsa off a terrible end to the season.....looking for a rematch with Cinn and much better bowl > now a long bus ride to Fort Worth wtf.... vs a 3 win team.
* MSU recall in a MASSIVE system change.... they might just look a whole lot better here. Their D is actually pretty tough too....and that was with a disgusting O that kept them on the field too long. TD #4 SEC ....RZ D #2....rush D #4 (3.6/125 g / 9 TD)
* Leach is a terrible bowl FAVORITE.... as a dog (seems like) a bit better
I kinda lean MSU.... but at 2' not worth messing with unless a strong chance they win SU. MSU gets out to an early lead....Tulsa comes back to win by 3-7 pts a likely scenario....? Looks like MSU scores 24 or more to me, so went that route. BUT....might have to back off...weather might be nasty.....35-40 / rain / 15 - 20 mph N winds / grass field ...........
adding small play (0.5)
Army +7
Horns / Col
Texas is returning to the same crap bowl as last year. How on earth can they care?
LY was vs the #5 team in Utah.....this is a much weaker Colorado team that will be fired up like crazy...a huge game for them. Horns need only to WIN to shut people up for awhile... how much doesn't matter. No strong feelings for me.....just a small play, thinking 12 was too many.... Buffs will no doubt play their azz off for 4 quarters....how many will we get out of Texas (not 4)....2/3 ? Herman a great bowl coach so far sure.....but can't ignore always as a dog. Lessee him blow out the Buffs here......THEN say role doesn't matter maybe.
* Horns -12/13 is a terrible play IMO .....at 7/7' entirely different
AGGS / UNC
LOVED N Caro earlier.... but now? But this one is easy (kinda) NEVER / EVER....bet hard earned money on a BURST-BUBBLE team (A&M). I fact, that team left out of the play-off (#5) or BCS title game (#3).....NEVER covers. Don't have the # in front of me, but it's like 2-21 ATS or so. And the few winners were Ohio State in the Rose Bowl in Urban's last game.....and Georgia in the Sugar Bowl vs Baylor (same game embarrassed by Texas the year before).
The presence of Jimbo, and the massive importance of this game to his program further confuses the issue. Plus I can't see how losing so many key players doesn't have an emotional impact on UNC, as well as that ON the field.
Clemson / Ohio St
Probably stay away for me.... Clemson should win the game, and likely cover. Don't think Buckeye D can disrupt Clemson O / make enough stops... while Clemson D should do both. Maybe great in-game / 2H play on Clemson here should OSU get up early.
Army H1 +3.5 seems solid .. they score a TD think its a great shot .. score 10 and think its a winner.. Cadet D busts a couple WV drives and dont think theres gunna be time for many WV scoring drives ... would expect WV D will be learning on the job early on in this one too = burn clock and maybe = points ... H2 army gets down and risk them getting away from their game and trying to get fancy .. see that tulane game for details... Army should hang tight for a half if they can avoid major mistakes...
B- yep went back and forth on Army / Couch Burners..... FINALLY decided to fade (small) a bad road team laying 7 to a relentless Army.... that will play their azz off for 4Q
$ will definitely be looking for an in-game / 2H play on WV
7272- sure, but wouldn't risk much don't think.... basically Wisky is gonna have to turn the ball over to lose here (Wisky -3 to +13 for WF). They typically play well in bowls (like WF)...so I would expect them to play better here. Offense has been the issue / WF D is not very good, and now without best player....so tough one for WF to win outright.
$ eg. if risking 0.75 unit....maybe 0.50 on WF +10 / 0.25 on WF +295.............
I show dogs in bowls +4 to +7 that cover won SU 41/50 82% since '13 .. better than reg ssn 68% covers win in that range ... +6.5 and +7's in bowls were 18/21 SU when covering wooah!.. higher volatility gotta mean push lines down to not get burned on the ML ... and plenty of other reasons books dont want to get caught w a big line / ml w all this late breaking news ... think were getting IA.St at this bowl discount... UK too but maybe more failure to understand SoS from no intercon play, which is another thing thats prob making bowl teams appear more comparable than they are .. NC St good ACC team sure but gets plowed by a near top SEC OL/RB unit combo like they did to L'ville LY? ... also think we'll be asking how was UGA only a 7 point fav to an AAC team in a few days....
Agree on IA.State .. on -4 would bet again -3.... well rounded team vs hit and miss oregon who kinda snuck into the champ game or at least didnt have to take the UW test to get in.... then got real lucky vs SC when -100 yds / -10 fd's +3 TO's.. Trojans talented but hell UA almost beat'em .. Ducks need same luck here clones after 11 games know who they are on O and D lotta all cons announced legit stars in pretty solid league once again ... hard to tell what Oregon was this year other than a hodge podge of talent that could bag some wins (and pretty surprising losses!) but just never put it all together in a game ... maybe other than vs Tree ... IA State looking bad vs Okla.. maybe most improved team in cfb ... Grinch his D looking real good now, watch out for them next year..
BA- this Oklahoma/Florida game reminds me a little of the 2015 Alamo Bowl between Oregon and TCU
I know you remember this game, but for the youngsters... TCU QB Boykin got in a bar fight the day before and was suspended. The line moved 8 points to Oregon -7. Oregon was up 31-0 when their QB got hurt. TCU came all the way back and won by 6 in 3OT.
It wouldn't surprise me much to see a close game, or even a Florida win, with maybe a little help from the refs. I was lucky to grab OK on the ML at +128, I didn't know about the opt-outs...
I'm with you on SJSt. That's by far my biggest bet of the Bowl Season. I got them at 7.5
was on the wrong side of that one ha.....Duck QB got hurt / game was over
Got a better one Thorpe.....1978 Orange Bowl - Arkansas vs OU 3 key Arkansas players suspended (Black guys in a White chicks dorm room) by Lou Holtz......line went from like OU -17/18 to 24ish......Hogs won 31-6 I
liked OU a lot BEFORE this crap happened..... bad spot for the Gators / great one for OU....feeling good about my OU +3'
I may be making this up, but I've always been under the impression that if teams have enough time to prep against the option, they almost universally do well. (Full disclosure: I'm a WVU homer.)
@HoundsBlood
Well it was a pretty short notice bowl announced 12/21 right before holiday break... couldnt have been too many good quality practices in there .. didnt look like D coaches have much experience w it... its kinda likt that MTSU game on the timing, so gotta hope very good / talented defense can prevent the game from turning out that way.. we'll see...
Good Luck BA. So you live in Grapevine. I live in Plano. I was going to go with a buddy, but, man, that weather sucks out there. We will watch it on TV. 
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