Cfb picks and why

Things turned around for us yesterday and we hit both - posted record stands at 2-1.   Let's look at some numbers:

      CM    83  16  104  114   (218)

2.5  Wky 6   123   84   98    (182)

Wky opens up as a 2.5 fav. - currently around 3.5.  Wky is better in Total off. sagarin rank, and sched. strength.  While CM is only better in total def. Often with small lines - the away team comes out on top, however, when the bottom team has a single digit total off. you take the bottom team.   

I'm on Wky - points.   Good luck all.

placin, tv, capt - back at ya

Ouch.....that sucked.  I walked into a bar/restaurant.....saw the score and time and thought....it looked pretty safe......saw another score....and said recover the onside and it should be over.....didn't pay attention after that....and was a distance from the big tv.... got up to get a closer look and they scored a td and then they are going for the win vice tie.......I gotta move on.

2-2

I'm taking Rice for a few reasons in the second game.   Goes along with the categories above with a different pattern and historical results from previous bowl games with similar numbers and line.   Good luck all.

Posted record stands at 3-2 after rice came thru and wku's debacle;

Kam. - thanks and back at ya.  

Let's look at some numbers:

     Ill   105 115  76  43   (119)

5   Lt  65   32    41   78  (119)

Lt opens up as a 5 pt fav currently around 6.   LT is better in every category with the exception of Sagarin sched. strength 43 vice 78.   As you can see the sagarin composite for each team is 119.  Having equal composites doesn't happen very often so my data is limited - thus this game is a be careful situation.  However, with a single digit spread, and based on limited data:

I'm going with Illinois + the points.   

In the other games - i'm taking Rutgers and Nc State - pretty much a dog day.   Good luck all.

Gdog - it would not surprise me to see Ill win on the M/line - good luck

Dizz - not sure exactly what makes up the opening line completely (def., off., public perception etc., etc...), however, I would think if LOU has some influence - it would be included in the line.  Once again - not exactly sure what makes up an opening line - but i'm pretty certain - sdsts - Rocky Long - going for it vice kicking field goals may have been considered.

Neo - Back at ya 

Bunnny - Nice seeing you my friend - hope all is well. Back at ya

Merry Christmas Buddah !!

always like your insight buddy

We hit Rutgers and Ncstate.   Ill had their chances - just didn't get it done.   I knew when Ward picked up the ball and ran with it - he was going to fumble - unfortunately he did.   Before that he hits the QB after he clearly released the ball - He wanted to be a hero - ended up being a goat -  anyways spilled milk. 

Record stands at 5-3.   Let's look at some numbers:

        VT        96   17   52   48   (100)

3.5   Cincy   29   101  51  96    (147)

Cincy opens as a 3.5 fav. currently around 3.  Cincy is better in total off. rank at 29 and better sagarin rank at 51; their composite is 147.  VT is better in Total def. and Sched. strength - their composite is 100.    Wen you have a small fav. with a larger/worst composite - that typically means you go with the top team/ VT.  

I'm taking VT, Duke, Miami, BC.  I didn't realize it but I guess i'm taking the ACC teams.    I'll come back later with  the Neb/USC game.   Good luck all.