Cfb picks and why

Lets see if we can get some of it back with UCLA.     This game is very similar to the NCST/Ucf game.    The team with the best sagarin total usually wins outright.   In this case UCLA has a sagarin total of 28 vice 38 for Kst.

For the record - i'm on UCLA. 

Inthetank - it has been a crazy day - hopefully UCLA can do this.

And we can get on the plus side with Washington.

For the record - taking Washington in the night cap. Good luck all.

We had our first losing day since the BYU game.  We went 2-3. Record stands at 20 - 12.

Let's look at some numbers:

       EC   5   44   64  112 (176)

7.5  Fla  94  9     21    11  (32)

Fla. opens up as a 7.5 fav. currently around 6.5/7.  Fla. is better in every category except Total offense.   In this bowl season we have had two situations that followed this pattern.  ND/LSU   Ohiost/Alab.   As we know the top team won those games outright.   However, in this game because the disparity in sagarin composite is very significant - you take the bottom team or florida.

For the record - i'm taking Florida.   Good luck all.  

Let's look at this game tonite:

2        Tol      16   75    77   105

66.5   Arkst    21   81  75     120

In this particular pattern - where the top team is better in 3 categories Total Off, Total def, and Sagarin sched strength and the bottom team is only better in 1 category - sagarin rank - you do one thing.    Bet the over.   I know the over has risen to 69.5 even 70.....take the over.   This situation hasn't occurred very often - the last time was when Neb played Ga a few years ago - they scored plenty of points.   I expect the same here.  

Record stands at 21-12 after we hit florida.   For the record taking the over in Toledo game.

Good luck all.

Rooney - I posted picks in the NFL forum - went 1-3.

Record stands at 22-12.   Let's look at some numbers:

     Ohst.   9   16   2   42  (44)

7   Oreg.  3    86  3    33  (36)

Oreg. opens up as a 7 pt fav - currently around 5 - 5.5.  Ore. is better total off. at 3 vice 9 and the are better in sagarin sched. strength of 33.    Ohst is better in Total def at 16 and they have a better sagarin rank of 2 vice 3 for oreg.    In bowl games there haven't been a lot of games this season nor previous seasons with this type of pattern.   That being the case i'm always careful if I don't have a lot of data supporting my pick. 

In football what I find can impact a game are - Qb change, coaching change and location of the game (meaning home or away or neutral field).   The data I use to evaluate games is from previous bowl games played - therefore location isn't an issue.  There are no head coaching changes - thus no impact there.   There is no qb change (meaning the oddsmakers know cardale is going to start) - thus no impact there.   Even though the Wide Out is now way out - and he does impact the off. in terms of numbers/production - i think Ore. may miss a beat or two - however, his impact won't be so devastating that the team shouldn't even show up.    Also, often teams rally when they are missing a player due to injury suspension etc.   Often players  respect the team more for not showing any special privileges to one player - showing each member is equal.   That being said - i'm not worried about the wide out not being there.

In the limited data i have - the one thing that seems to occur - the bottom team that is favored and they have a better sagarin composite - cover.    In addition, even though ohio st has a 16th ranked defense compared to Oregon's 86th - why would the oddsmakers make oreg. a 7 pt fav.   - that line and those numbers are begging us to take ohio st..   I've looked this game up and down left to right - looking for some type of excuse to take Ohio st. but i can't find any.  

For the record - i'm taking Oregon.    It's been a fun ride let's complete the journey - Good luck all.