Cfb picks and why

Let's look at some numbers:

       Neb    35   47    26    62     (88)

5.5  Usc     31   68   18    28     (46)

Usc opens up as a 5.5 fav...currently 7.5.   USC is better in all categories except Total def.  I know Neb. has gone thru a coaching change, and other issues.....however, I look at things from a number stand point and the data indicates Neb. should keep it close.  I'm taking Neb + 7.5    Good luck all.

vetran - yes...near Tysons corner - you?

That Duke game was beautiful - had a parlay on the over/duke - that came thru - was hoping they would win it su.   Who knows what would have happened with the psu/bc game if bc kicker would have made it - choices and consequences - spilled milk let's move on.

We hit vt, duke and neb so we  went 3-2 on Saturday - record stands at 8-5.    Let's look at some numbers:

     Clem  62    1    22   51   (73)

pk Okl     20    54   14  24   (38)

Okl opens up as a Pk - currently okl is a 4.5 fav.   Okla is better in every category above except def. One would think go with okal, however, lot's of data already this bowl season that supports taking the top team with this scenario ( duke, Rutgers, neb, psu, cmich - (yeah I know) - the one that didn't do it was Miami).    Even previous seasons the top team often comes out on top or keeps it close.    I'm taking Clem but being careful. 

In the first game - I recognize Trickett is out.   However, I still like Wva - 1.5 or 2 pts.   whatever it is.

In the late game I think Ark takes it.   

Good luck all.

veteran - I use offshore - don't know of any locals - sorry

Capt - back at ya

TV - same to ya

vet - thanks appreciate that - i'm with ya.

wood - look at post #40

Based on the way the lines are going up with Clem and Ark - thinking about taking them in a teaser - hate laying the 20% juice but it increases the margin of error - anyone good with calculating teaser odds - worth it not worth it?

We hit Ark and Clem.......wva didn't do it. - record stands at 10-6. Let's look at some numbers for today:

     ND   36  71  35  41   (76)

8   LSU  80  8  11   3    (14)

LSU opens up as a 8 pt fav.   the line has jumped around a bit - down to 7 back to 8, maybe 7.5.   On paper LSU dominates in total def. at 8, sagarin rank at 11 and schedule strength at 3.  While ND is only better with total off. at 36.  

Purely based on the numbers, patterns and historical results - i'm going with ND and the points.   My heart says LSU but the numbers and the data indicate ND.   I recognize they are starting Zaire vice Golson - anytime there is a qb change in college or nfl - you gotta be careful. 

For the record - I'm taking ND.  Also, i'm going with Louisville and Stanford.

Good luck all.