Cfb picks and why

Danny - i'm not worried about.....unless that corresponds to a change in the qb - or the team has food poisoning etc....I stick with the numbers - win or lose.

bookie - not sure about that...but thanks for the kind words and no problem.

Let's look at Playoff game number 1:

   FSU     43   52     15     36  (51)

8 Ore       3    83     4      34  (38)

Ore. opens up as a 8 pt fav. Currently around 7.5.   Ore. is better in every category except def. - fsu ranks 52 while ore ranks 83.  This game lines up very much like last nights GT/Miss st game. In addition, in this scenario you take FSU.   I won't be surprised to see them win Su.   We have a had numerous games with this scenario and the top team has covered and/or won su up quite a few times this year.  

For the record - going with FSU.    Good luck all.

Interesting Buddah...Congrats on Mich St come back.

h20 - all smiles here.....I had a glimmer of hope but thought that was going to be a loser...I guess things sometimes balance out....we had wku earlier.....anyways - thanks.

888, jose - back at ya

very nice work buddah !!!!

unfortunately the noles can't hold onto the ball....and I picked the wrong side.....spilled milk let's move on.

Based on the numbers......Ohio st is only better in Total off.   Bama appears they should crush, however, very often when the bottom team is better in all categories except total off....the top team usually comes out on top and wins straight up....or at least keeps it close.   I gotta take points and hope it ends up being a Big ten day.  

For the record i'm taking Ohio st.

lol....okay bamers

inthetank...thanks I guess:)

Alien - back at ya

We hit 3 and lost 2.   Gotta love ohio st - had them on the spread and the m/l - after eze. fumble - I was thinking here we go again - they did it for us.

Record stands at 18-9.   Let's look at some numbers:

2.5  Pitt       44   28   54   64      (118)

       Hous   63   20   74   134    (208) 

 Pitt opens up as a 2.5 fav.   currently around 3.5.  Pitt is better in every category except total def. where hous is ranked 20 vice pitt at 28.   From a sagarin composite standpoint - pitt is 118 while hous is 208.    Pit clearly dominates on paper.   Histprically two things occur with this situation - the bottom team (Houston) should keep it close or win the game out right and the teams score under the posted total of 54.   I mentioned before I don't typically do over and unders - this is one case I do.

For the record -  I'm taking Houston, under in the Houston game.  Also - as much as I believe Tenn is up and coming and Iowa seems to just fart out at times - the numbers indicate take iowa - i'm taking Iowa as well.  

Good luck all.

inthetank - unless there is a QB change or something drastic that is affecting the team as a whole - i'm sticking with houst.   I got them +6 and under 54.  

This is why you gotta use the opening line to Handicap.   Look at Mizzou - opens up as a 5.5 pt fav - and it drops to 3 by game time.   They end up winning by 16 points.  Anyways - hopefully Houst will do it. 

Rookie - I can relate.   I've learned to not watch and not get hung up between what my heart is telling me and what the numbers say.  It can drive you crazy - glad it worked out. 

Unfortunately I don't think Iowa is going to make a comeback like michst or Houston - we shall see.