Dr. Strangelove's 2023-24 Bowls

@phancard

@Dz10

@Sporttiger

 Thanks guys! 

Hoping for Bama loot to start rolling in…..

Get it down to a pk would be nice 

Ever since the NCAA went to the computer/playoff committee selection process to pick out national title contenders, all of the teams who have won the National Championship under this system have been top 10 recruiting programs over at least it's last two years. No team has won the national championship over the last 25 years who haven't met this requirement. That's why we've basically seen a pool of the usual suspects (Bama, LSU, UGA, Clemson, UGA) win the title. They are all high top 10 recruiting programs. Washington's recruiting for the last 4 years has ranked #19, #42, #24, #89. That's probably not going to cut it against top 10 recreiting programs like Michigan and Bama, even if they do somehow get by Texas. By the way Texas has been ranked #5 and #3 in recruiting for the last 2 years. Just food for thought. UW will have to do something that hasn't been done in the modern age of college football to win the NC. That's why when I do preseason prop plays on the potentional NC winner, I don't even look at teams outside the top 10 in recruiting. It will be interesting to see if starting next season when we go to a 12 team playoff, that we get a hot team that bucks this trend. But until we do, I'm not holding my breath.

@DrStrangelove

What's going to get interesting Doc is the effect of the portal.  As you wrote, until now the teams that have been champs have also been the top high school recruiters.  This is likely going to change in the future.  We'll see how much, especially with the 12 team playoff.

Good Fortune in the CFP

STRANGE 

@DrStrangelove

It's always hard to go against Bama and Saban's success, especially with preparation. I believe that Michigan matches up great to stop Alabama, maybe reflecting on how they were built to stop Ohio State.  They've now beat my Buckeyes 3 years in a row, and I think their line play can definitely succeed with Alabama. More pressure will be on Milroe to excel, and this is the worst matchup in my mind. He's done a lot better the second half of the season, but I see him struggling here. McCarthy is a seasoned vet now, and has experience on this stage from last year. I compare this Michigan team kind of like Philadelphia Eagles last season, in a way they capitalize on other team's mistakes and manage the clock down to a damn science. This is probably an unpopular opinion, but I see a lot Covers members/my betting real life friends on Bama because they are so accustomed to winning money with Alabama/Saban and over time they know it succeeds. Kind of like an auto-bet without digging in too deep to numbers. Should be an awesome game, we will see what happens. 

I could probably go on too much about Texas and Washington, and don't feel as strong about this game. I had a Penix Heisman ticket and know he's amazing with 3 professional receivers. I think the Washington defense will have problems and Penix will have turnovers. I follow luck ratings and 2 of my sites have the Huskies at #1. Time to come back down to earth. Bottom line like you said too much talent disparity. With that said anything can happen!

Good luck! Happy New Years! 

Wisconsin/LSU over 57.5

GL on your plays & Hau’oli Makahiki Hou @DrStrangelove 

@Xdoge

@Fuse

@MrFreedo

@Macwestie1

 Good luck today ma doods. Let's make'em apologize 

Iowa +5.5

Michigan ML

I was hoping we'd see close to a pickem spread by kickoff. But I'm doubting it's going to happen. I'm hedging a little and playing this one small because I also have a 5-1 futures prop on Bama to win the NC. I'm already on Texas. 

Meh day yesterday going 2-2. Texas of course always shits the bed when I play them. Sark is like Lincoln Riley, he's never seen a pass he doesn't like, even when the run is there for free. 

The Running Dogs

Jax State +1.5 

Miami, Ohio +4.5 

Old Dominion +3 (Push)

Northern Illinois +1.5 

Bowling Green +6 (Push)

Kentucky +7 

Cal +3.5 

Georgia St +1.5 

Toledo +3 

Tulane +8.5 

Ohio +3 

Other Plays

UCLA -2 

Air Force +3 

Jax St/ULL under 30 1H 

NMST -0.5 2H 

USF +3 

Texas St/Rice over 59 

North Carolina +6 

USC/Louisville under 59 

Ohio St/Mizzou under 49 

Texas -4 

Iowa +5.5 

LSU/Wisconsin over 57.5 

Michigan ML 

Running Dogs: 7-2

Other Plays: 8-5

sure hope i remember to be here next year....RUNNING DOGS....pavlov's ring the bell for me ...THANKS FOR POSTING...  down the road

@zircon

Thank you for all the work. Have you ever ran this in the nfl playoffs?

@DrStrangelove

 BoL with your bets on Monday, Doc!

Washington/Michigan under 58

The total briefly got up to 57.5 in Bookmaker and I bought the hook at -115. My number on the game is Michigan -7.5 with the total being in the 54-58 range. My gut says Michigan wins the game, but I'm not comfortable giving more than 2.5/3 points to a team like UW. With the spread being 4.5, taking Michigan at this number is basically saying Blue will win by a touchdown against a 14-0 team with a Heisman caliber QB. I like the total more because Michigan's best defense will more than likely be their offense pounding UW on the ground and keeping Penix on the sideline. 

How successful Blue will be running the ball depends on which UW defense shows up. Will it be the UW D that allowed Arizona, a 200 yard rushing team, just 110 yards on the ground, or the UW D that gave up over 240 yards rushing against Oregon St or over 200 against the Ducks the first time they played them, or will it be the UW D that gave up just 124 yards rushing to the same Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game? Your guess is as good as mine. Just keep in mind that even though UW has been outrushed in several games this year, they've still won all of them. That's why I'm not playing against the Huskies. The X-Factor is too strong with Penix playing at the top of his game. But I still believe UW can cover this spread and the game still stay under the total. I don't believe they have to move up and down the field on every drive and match UM score for score... Of course I could be wrong!

I admit I would like to see Washington win the game. I would like nothing more than see a non-Blueblood program win the National Championship. It hasn't been done in the modern era as I stated in my writeup (Post #154). But college football is changing, and the days of just having a good defense isn't enough to win championships. Take Iowa (please), who won in a division of other offensively challenged teams, but lost their conference championship and bowl game by a combined total of 61-0. These innovative non-blueblood programs are making strides, with TCU making the title game last year after beating Michigan. And now UW. One of these days I think these teams are going to break through and win it all. Especially with the new 12 team playoff, which will reward the hot teams coming down the stretch, who have often been left out of the big dance. When it happens, it will renew my faith in college football, that it's not just reserved for the Bluebloods (hopping off my soapbox now).

BOL

@fubah2

@MrFreedo

Good luck guys. By the way, I think the 1st half under could be a good play IF UW doesn't jump all over them early and get up 7-0 or 14-0. Then we could have a free for all if they take Blue out of their gameplan. My guess is no matter who wins the coin toss, UW will get the ball first. Michigan probably needs to get a stop or keep them out of the endzone, and then begin to dictate the pace of play with their running game for this thing to stay under...Can't wait to see how two teams with contrasting styles play each other..