Dr. Strangelove's 2023-24 Bowls

@PUSSYGALORE333

@Fuse

The Running Dogs

Jax State +1.5 

Miami, Ohio +4.5 

Old Dominion +3 (Push)

Northern Illinois +1.5 

Bowling Green +6 (Push)

Kentucky +7 

Cal +3.5 

Georgia St +1.5 

Toledo +3 

Tulane +8.5 

Ohio +3 

Other Plays

UCLA -2 

Air Force +3 

Jax St/ULL under 30 1H 

NMST -0.5 2H 

USF +3 

Texas St/Rice over 59 

North Carolina +6 

USC/Louisville under 59 

Ohio St/Mizzou under 49 

Texas -4 

Iowa +5.5 

LSU/Wisconsin over 57.5 

Michigan ML 

Michigan/UW under 58 

Running Dogs: 7-2

Other Plays: 9-5

That under was much easier than I thought it would be. It's been a great bowl season. See you guys next year. 

Good work brotha, next year it is 

@WahooS

 Thanks Hoo. I hope you're feeling better.

Dr Strangelove - have you all looked at what the running dog record would be if you used rushing yards per game instead of YPC in the formula? just wondering if you’ve found YPC to be the better predictor than yards. looking at the actual running dogs, which is based on yards not YPC. thanks i’ll hang up and listen.

Early in the 2023 season San Jose State's rushing numbers looked awful, but their YPC (for & against) wasn't all that bad considering their tough competetion and facing some pretty wicked rushing defenses. By the time they got into October and started facing teams in their own conference and level, they started reeling off some nice ATS wins. I believe they covered 6 of their last 7 games. Your average weekend bettors probably looked at their basic rushing yards along with their defensive stats and undervalued them by not digging into the nuts and bolts of the team. I'll be the first to say that the theory isn't perfect, especially in the first 4 or 5 weeks of the season before these teams get some stats under their belts. But at around a 60% accuracy rate in the bowls the last 15 years or so, it's been a great tool. BOL this season.

Do you keep a log of your past bets?  For instance last season how many dogs were lines of under 11 points.  Some of these dogs with bigger lines seem to be more random.  

past data has closer lines under 9 point dogs do better.  Obviously with line moves and slight adjustment from the site using closing lines can vary.  

rushing yards>o:rushing yards and D and season>2015 and line<14 and n:line<7

okay so this is not 100% correct because we (you) are trying to predict who will have a better or strong chance to out rush their opponents.  This data simulation is factual that our team has out rushed their opponent..

If our dog does win the rushing yard battle, here are the figures:

In this situation the line is less tan 14 points,

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

this line is from and including +6 and less than and not including +14

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finally close lines under 7 points:

 underdog moneylines are close to 2-1 SU

These close lined games, what ends up happening is the dog most often wins the game and an even greater chance at some point in the game will have the lead. That is how successful winning bets take place. Get a lead control the ball and the clock and bring the W home

my data didnt post but the numbers are fantastic (of course)

if one can predict the outcome of the dog rushing yards to be greater than their opponent its 76% ATS no matter the line.

65% SU dog winners if the dog line is under 7 points.  

A line of <7 points take the dog money line 

When the  dog does out rush their opponent  it’s all plus money

when a loss happens it’s no juice.   

This is something that we should keep ROI data and track the money earned and lost because paying no juice is also important. 

gl this season  doc!  

Second that Doc!  Have a great year! 

Doc , A lot of teams lost multiple highly rated players on their D Line

and Linebacker positions due to graduation / Transfer Portal going

into this season. You might be able to find a few " Running Dogs "

early that match up well vs teams that have lost production at key

positions.

Blessings and Good Luck this season.  

Transfer Portal action should be over . Fall camps should be getting

underway starting today . Time to start checking Injury reports and to

start the Annual Injuries / Suspensions thread. 

Just over 3 weeks to go Doc.    

Nice impressive run Doc! 

GL this year!

@DrStrangelove

I'll third those good wishes!  Hope you have a great season!

Already looking forward to the "Running Dogs" Dr. Strange. That phrase had completely embedded itself in my vocabulary by December 2023.  

2023 season team defense rushing yards against:

All of this data is based upon this bad defense as a favorite. 

These teams had a lot of games when their opponent rushed for >150 yards.  (since the data was not as good against B10 teams and SEC teams I have excluded those conferences.)  Must be because top conferences are very balanced and strong at most positions.  Also of note I would have eliminated P12 teams as well but the site would not let me delete the data on the conference.  I will list the data but you can visualize and eliminate for yourself.

7 times (games) USC gave up 150 rushing yards ATS record in those games 1-6

6 times C. Florida 0-6 ATS

6 times Toledo 1-5 ATS

5 times Tx Tech 1-4 ATS

5 times N. Car 0-5

5 times Pitt 1-4

5 times Mem 1-4 ATS

5 times Tx St 2-3 ATS

5 times L Laf 2-3 ATS

5 times App St 0-5 ATS

5 times Frsno 1-4 ATS

4 times LA Tech 1-3 ATS

4 times W. Ky 1-3 ATS

4 times N. Tex 3-1 ATS

4 times Utah St 1-3 ATS

4 times Kan St 1-3 ATS

4 times Okla 2-2 ATS

The rest of the bad teams have 3 or less times.

We can either do our homework for 2024 and search which of these teams have improved on defense or, we can wait one week or more to see if this problem is still an issue.

listing all teams that gave up 150 rushing yards.  

GTCH 12 times

N. Tex 12 times

9 times teams :

Mas 

USC 

La Tech 

HAW

BC

WKY

L. Mon 

Coastal C

C. Fla

UAB

8 times:

UTEP

E. MCH

ARK ST

RICE

TOLE

GEO SOUTHN

ARMY

HOUS

BAY

N. CAR

APP ST

TEMP

SDSU

UT ST

BYU

N MEX

MISS

TULSA

I'll stop here as these are the worst bunch.  

teams with very poor defensive and  also poor special teams that gave up 30+ points when favored in 2023 27-166 ATS on the season.  

These 4 teams when favored were the most victimized.

LSU 7 times 3-4 ATS

N. Car 6 times 1-5 ATS

L. Laf 5 times 1-4

USC 5 times 0-5 ATS