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NCAA wk 7

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Posted: #76
Thanks Mega for ur insights, Ore/UCLA.
 
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Posted: #77
Copag 

Bencats - thanks for the kentucky intel  GL

UGA - definitely leaning sparty - maybe under better ? will look tomorrow

awolt , pdriver - will look at the FIU / indiana games tomorrow am before markets open 


so far just C Michigan guys  glad you are getting value from the writeups 
 
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Posted: #78

Just waiting on the rest of your picks and JimmyDaFreak's. Then I can invest in the stock market! Already have Trains picks!

Love your write up and it's obvious you know what you're talking about!

 
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Posted: #79
Mega, do have a read on
 Georgia -3 Missouri
 Georgia Tech -4 Duke
 
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Posted: #80
Walbanger - I spoke about this in thread maybe post 64 or around there. Don't know how you wager and manage bankroll. It was a 3% bankroll wager for me at +10.5. The lowest number I would take is 8.5 and would do 2%. Yes it is still value in our opinion but after that writeup they are sure to get blown out now! Ha. 

The idea is that I know you can only be so sure about a game. At 14.5 it's a 66% cover according to us going down to about 58% at 8.5 so bet less if u adjust bet size. We think its about 60-62% cover at 10.5. ALL estimates obviously I just do it to wrap my head around what numbers I will play. GL. 
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by FlexIt4U:

Mega, do have a read on
 Georgia -3 Missouri
 Georgia Tech -4 Duke

Will try and look at those early am buddy. Gut is GA and Duke but don't think either will make my card. 
 
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Posted: #82
I just drop $2k on S.FLA +15 and $200 on ML+465. What do u think MEGA??
U think S.FLA got any chance to win??:)
Thanks in advance
PS
 
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Posted: #83
I think the under is the play in UCF/BYU game.BYU back up is horrid.
 
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Posted: #84
Good stuff. Like Wash St for sure at anything 17+. Hoping crowd will be rocking guys will pound Tree thinking they'll beat up on this Pack12 bottom feeder in Cali. Halladay can sling it. Like the CMU play, they used to play NIU tough but Lynch didnt make it seem that way.

Any opinion on Arky St opening at -13 on the road vs GA State now down to 9.5? Leaning hard on GA State as home dogs. Theyve been good ATS as double digit dogs. Arky St laying about 5-6 too much IMO

GL Mega
 
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Posted: #85
PS L o C k city

Trey - have not looked at that one yet - G St or no play for me - Do really like the Ark St D tho playing pretty well. GL

eagle - 


Minny 4 NW (42)
funny total ....we actually lean under which is sick but no way on earth can play an ncaa game under 42 just how we roll - One of our associates WOODSHED INC likes to play "both teams under 20 points" at +400  this wk he likes this game last wk had the ND/Stanford SNOT BUBBLER so who knows !

Strong lean to the dog here - just feels like a bad spot for NW - winning 2 conf games as big dogs - now go on the road to play a scrappy team off a bye with a now healthy QB  - and a team that beat them last yr 20-17 as DD dogs at NW.....Minn just finds ways to win or keep it close....any team that can win easily completing only one forward pass (SJ St) and is not a service academy gets our respect.....Also likey likey new NW mojo - gave up only 6 7 14 last 3 G beat 2 decent teams in Penn and Wisc....secondary a big beat up but wont matter this wk....Both starting QBs only have 3 td passes all yr......final note - for trend guy - road team something like 13-2 L15 ATS in the series - summary - side - strong lean NW - total - strong lean under - ML - will use NW in ML underdog parlays for sure....
 
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Posted: #86
next play

STAB YOURSELF IN THE FACE GAME OF THE WEEK 

Texas +14.5

We can get this out there right now. We really like Oklahoma. No disgrace losing at TCU. Secondly - yes Texas offense is pretty bad. Now that we realize that - and the line reflects that - it is not a pick em - we can jot down some thoughts for you guys - fade or follow.....Do not think this baby gets to 17 which is the next key number - small chance it dips to 14 or a shade below if Scumbag Tout Service Inc releases it as a 495820349 unit steamer for their gold members.

1. Texas D is excellent. Always a big plus. They are ranked 6th in the NCAA in pass eff D have only given up 4 TD passes all yr and they have played a couple bums - but also BYU which isnt horrible - UCLA - b/u qb but weapons - and Baylor - yes Baylor. Check out these stats from the Baylor game - Heisman hopefully QB Petty was 7/22 for 111 yds. Did throw 2 TD tho. Baylor only got 21 on offense - one TD set up on a beautiful fake punt...another TD on a blk FG....Our worldwide research staff read about how Baylor found their D just a tough tough one to deal with - hats off to Baylor HC who decided to pound away with the run game at the soft  Texas underbelly.....Sooners will likely have to do the same - may hit the odd big play - but not sure a QB with 5 TD passes and 5 Int all yr is gonna have a ton of success against that pass D

2. Huge rivalry game. Last yr Texas won outright as DD dogs. The two years before that Sooners turned it into the Red River Azz Spanking with blowouts but generally it is closer......Referring back to point #1.....Why did Tex get blown out? well those 2 yrs their D was borderline brutal by Tex standards especially the 2012 version which gave up almost 30/game.....This Charlie Strong D should keep them in it.

3. Tex offense is pretty bad - but - they are getting better - OL improving - Had one drive end with a fumble near the goal line last wk - ended game in scrub time with a nice drive - Sooners D is good not a brick wall- We think Texas will get low 300s in total yds - maybe Sooners get 70-100 more Y but 14.5 is a lot - One break or two here or there and the cover should be there to be had....Tex can run the ball enough and complete some short passes QB 5 TD 3 int and QB rating not much different than Ok QB.

4. We still have the Alabama game in our minds. T Knight threw 4 TD passes in that game vs Bama. This yr? He has 5 the entire season. Sooner fans can tell you why - we cant - just go on stats. From reading - maybe he cant make all the throws. not on page with more than 1 receiver....bottom line - do not see them getting super healthy this wk in the passing game

5. Sooner D has given up 33 37 last 2 games and almost 1000 yds - against good offenses for sure - but point is - they are not a brick wall and texas should be able to do something against them.

6. Sooners moved the ball very well against the TCU D that may end up being great - but this yr TCU has played Samford Minny and SMU.....and Oklahoma - no surprise they are near the top in NCAA D stats - last 3 yrs TCU D has given up 25 23 22 points per game so while we like tcu a whole lot - it is more their offense now that we respect and their coaching.

7. Meaningless info: Weather calling for rain. Total is 46.5. Vegas expect low scoring game. A game we will take 14.5.


So bottom line - if you play Sooners - totally get it we cant justify it purely on Xs and Os.

GL guys - MEGA
 
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Posted: #87
Georgia 3 Mizz (62)
Mizz has always been a tough team for us to get a handle on....Usually a bit disrespected in these games when it comes to the line and they often deliver....We refer you to Mizz expert Train for all your needs on this one.....They still look unproven to us - last 2 games- lost at H to indiana - then rallied late to beat SC despite putting up less than 300Y on that D....a win is a win tho - see what we mean?? LY they beat Ga in their house - 2YA Georgia did the same to them....Georgia is still on our MAN CRUSH  list but fact is - they have lost the money in 3 games this yr already - so frustrating.....Have the fair line at GA 3.....summarize - pass on side no opinion - ML - no play but can see merit in mizz stab - total - no opinion. GL
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

D8  one of the best - GL this wk 

W Virginia 3.5 Tex Tech 
Well we saw the line Sunday at pk em briefly got ready to hit the $1000 button multiple times then saw it bleed up and bleed up and now it is 3.5..... Definite lean here to WV who we really like this yr - they are #10 in off and #43 in def after playing Bama and Okla  not to mention a not so bad Maryland team....The score doesnt show it but they pistol whipped Kansas last wk 557-176 in total yd advantage - Just do not want to go chasing this line over 3 - we have the fair line around 2/3....TT has also played some tough teams - just have not done as well - mind you WV has the home adv vs Okla and neutral vs Bama while TTech had back to back at okie st and kan st which is a killer....Crowd-Will-Be-Rocking Guy will have something to say here - as home dog they are on 8-3 ATS run and have beat WV last 2 yrs 49-14 and 37-27......summarize - side...pass at this number for sure....total....will look at the over like everyone else on the planet but think it will be too high for us - ML....not tempted to use TT although we see some merit there...mega
 
 
I see some value in Texas Tech ... !! Line is now WV - 6 1/2 .. I may play it now at + 6  1/2 because I doubt it reaches -7 .. Thoughts ??? 
 
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Posted: #89
upside - I think T Tech +6.5 or +7 is a pretty good bet. No doubt about it. That ML looks juicy for our ML dog parlays now GL
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by FlexIt4U:

Mega, do have a read on
 Georgia -3 Missouri
 Georgia Tech -4 Duke


did georgia game a couple posts back ....here is other one GL


Ga Tech 4.5 Duke (58)
Gut told us duke - further analysis has given us a slight lean to the GT side....Raise your hand if you knew GT was undefeated....<crickets> .....They also own Duke winning 10 str by over 20/game yes this is not your daddys duke team but this is one of those rare trends we find that you maybe do not automatically play on - but cant play against it IMO.....We have the fair line closer to 1/2 but maybe we have underrated GT??? Like we said lean GT but we are worried about their run D - duke is bad too - but that is always a red flag - plus duke is 60% last 10 yrs as a road dog - always seem to get a couple extra points in the line and they are so well coached that you never know ....summary - lean to GT on side - ML - not using duke - total - actually like the under quite a bit - may revisit later that seems to us to be the way to go here. GL guys


 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by awolt10:

Mega any chance you can look at the utsa vs fiu game? I just dont understand why utsa is a 14 pt favorite after getting beat by new mexico as a 17 pt fav and benching the starting qb while fiu has won two in a row albeit somewhat ugly and lucky. Thanks 

hey buddy - gonna pass on this game but absolutely lean to FIU taking the points cant see any other way to go - however - it sounds paranoid - but we almost never play a dog when they won big the wk before and the fav lost as fav the wk prior - know what i mean??? not saying trap just saying we personally have lost these games over and over just our issue so we try to avoid GL
 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by Pdriver:

Mega,
What do u make of Indiana this week. Opened at plus 7 moving to plus 3. Are people fading Iowa as Kirk ferenz non believers or is Indiana suddenly a public team. Iowa is slow and predictable on offense but the D is stout and it's homecoming at Iowa. Odd line movement IMO.

 agree buddy - next game on my list - just have to take a break for a while get ready for day - strong lean iowa right now but have to dig into this bad boy
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

upside - I think T Tech +6.5 or +7 is a pretty good bet. No doubt about it. That ML looks juicy for our ML dog parlays now GL
 

Thx bro .. wanted to run it by you .. other games I'm liking and you can advise would be appreciated ... 

Utah St -7 vs the AF .. Really think AF coming off 2 upsets will get smacked in the mouth vs a stout Run D .. Utah St is much better without Chuckie an I believe they are comin on ?? Thoughts ??

Iowa - 3 vs Indiana .. Line opened at - 6 1/2 .. now -3 .. I have a feeling Vegas is going to clean up on this game as the Hawkeye's will shut down Indiana run game and cover the low -3 spread ?? Thoughts ?? 

Memphis - 6 .. I have .. Huge !! I took them asap .. Houston is a poorly coached squad and the Tigers are on the rise as so is the line - 9 .. Now .. Thoughts ?? 

Lsu - 1 ... This is a bet against Driskel .. No matter how bad LSU D looks I think they beat Florida here .. Thoughts ?? 
 
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Posted: #94
Oregon will be one of my plays. This is more of a bet against the most overrated team in all of FBS. BOL!
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

next play

STAB YOURSELF IN THE FACE GAME OF THE WEEK 

 

 

You guys are awesome haha..

You planning on looking at the NW/Minny game?  I haven't had time to dig into.  Obviously NW coming off big back to back wins.   didn't have a chance to catch much of the Wisky game, but how the hell does Melvin run for 260 and the badgers put up 10 points?  Thinking of adding NW in a under dog ml wheel but considering Minnesota has made it clear this year they plan on winning games with 150+ yards on the ground it makes me wonder if NW is capable of stopping the run enough to win a game in which the opponent doesn't shoot themselves in the foot with TO's/penalties.  Hoping for your thoughts.  Thanks again

 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by FastTony1323:

 

You guys are awesome haha..

You planning on looking at the NW/Minny game?  I haven't had time to dig into.  Obviously NW coming off big back to back wins.   didn't have a chance to catch much of the Wisky game, but how the hell does Melvin run for 260 and the badgers put up 10 points?  Thinking of adding NW in a under dog ml wheel but considering Minnesota has made it clear this year they plan on winning games with 150+ yards on the ground it makes me wonder if NW is capable of stopping the run enough to win a game in which the opponent doesn't shoot themselves in the foot with TO's/penalties.  Hoping for your thoughts.  Thanks again


 post 86 - GL man 
 
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Posted: #97
Red Soxxxx......think i like it GL 

upside - like iowa not sure about the others - will take a look later 
 
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Posted: #98
 NICE PICKS
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

next play

STAB YOURSELF IN THE FACE GAME OF THE WEEK 

Texas +14.5

We can get this out there right now. We really like Oklahoma. No disgrace losing at TCU. Secondly - yes Texas offense is pretty bad. Now that we realize that - and the line reflects that - it is not a pick em - we can jot down some thoughts for you guys - fade or follow.....Do not think this baby gets to 17 which is the next key number - small chance it dips to 14 or a shade below if Scumbag Tout Service Inc releases it as a 495820349 unit steamer for their gold members.

1. Texas D is excellent. Always a big plus. They are ranked 6th in the NCAA in pass eff D have only given up 4 TD passes all yr and they have played a couple bums - but also BYU which isnt horrible - UCLA - b/u qb but weapons - and Baylor - yes Baylor. Check out these stats from the Baylor game - Heisman hopefully QB Petty was 7/22 for 111 yds. Did throw 2 TD tho. Baylor only got 21 on offense - one TD set up on a beautiful fake punt...another TD on a blk FG....Our worldwide research staff read about how Baylor found their D just a tough tough one to deal with - hats off to Baylor HC who decided to pound away with the run game at the soft  Texas underbelly.....Sooners will likely have to do the same - may hit the odd big play - but not sure a QB with 5 TD passes and 5 Int all yr is gonna have a ton of success against that pass D

2. Huge rivalry game. Last yr Texas won outright as DD dogs. The two years before that Sooners turned it into the Red River Azz Spanking with blowouts but generally it is closer......Referring back to point #1.....Why did Tex get blown out? well those 2 yrs their D was borderline brutal by Tex standards especially the 2012 version which gave up almost 30/game.....This Charlie Strong D should keep them in it.

3. Tex offense is pretty bad - but - they are getting better - OL improving - Had one drive end with a fumble near the goal line last wk - ended game in scrub time with a nice drive - Sooners D is good not a brick wall- We think Texas will get low 300s in total yds - maybe Sooners get 70-100 more Y but 14.5 is a lot - One break or two here or there and the cover should be there to be had....Tex can run the ball enough and complete some short passes QB 5 TD 3 int and QB rating not much different than Ok QB.

4. We still have the Alabama game in our minds. T Knight threw 4 TD passes in that game vs Bama. This yr? He has 5 the entire season. Sooner fans can tell you why - we cant - just go on stats. From reading - maybe he cant make all the throws. not on page with more than 1 receiver....bottom line - do not see them getting super healthy this wk in the passing game

5. Sooner D has given up 33 37 last 2 games and almost 1000 yds - against good offenses for sure - but point is - they are not a brick wall and texas should be able to do something against them.

6. Sooners moved the ball very well against the TCU D that may end up being great - but this yr TCU has played Samford Minny and SMU.....and Oklahoma - no surprise they are near the top in NCAA D stats - last 3 yrs TCU D has given up 25 23 22 points per game so while we like tcu a whole lot - it is more their offense now that we respect and their coaching.

7. Meaningless info: Weather calling for rain. Total is 46.5. Vegas expect low scoring game. A game we will take 14.5.


So bottom line - if you play Sooners - totally get it we cant justify it purely on Xs and Os.

GL guys - MEGA


Couldnt have said it better!!  Spot on, my man!!

GL


 
 
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Posted: #100
Good luck Mega 
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