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NCAA wk 7

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Posted: #151
Just wanted to thank you for the thread. As a budding sports better this has been great! Not just for the picks but bankroll mgmt and how you handicap games (mostly ignoring crowd will be rocking guy)

As a big MSU fan can't take a side but loving the over. Dantonio will open up the playbook and let Cook play for the first time this season.

I see lots of points and a great game!

Anxious to hear your thoughts on A and M and the Tide. And maybe hitting that crack pipe!
 
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Posted: #152
Quote Originally Posted by GASportsDoc:

Mega. Long time listener, first time caller. Request Line Sir. Possible Crack Pipe Special. New Mexico St. +29. over Georgia Southern. Southern has a HUGE game on tap just 5 days later against App.St. Last year was an 8 point game. I can see Southern getting up and then preparing starters for the App. St. game. I would love to hear your thoughts. Keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the star. Thanks for your input weekly.

I started a thread on this one. Home teams off byes, favored between 21 and 35 are covering 73% of the time. 53-20 ats, and ga southern falls into this category.
 
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Posted: #153
Thanks again tuff week for me to guess lol GL 
 
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Posted: #154
so as of now. only pick on the card is stanford?
 
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Posted: #155
Quote Originally Posted by Igglez:


I started a thread on this one. Home teams off byes, favored between 21 and 35 are covering 73% of the time. 53-20 ats, and ga southern falls into this category.

I think the X factor here is that GASO plays a conference game against an (at the moment) undefeated App State team at App State 5 days later.  I can't imagine GASO pouring it on in the 4th quarter, and looking back at NMS they've been able to get into the end zone.  I dont think GASO will get over 50 and hard to believe NMS can't get score 3 TDs.
 
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Posted: #156

lgglez - nice intel  thx GL this wk

bcboyz

 

Minnesota 2 Nebraska (48)

Megalocks line 2

Sagarin - Neb 2

Something has to give in this big time matchup....Huskers are 10-3 ATS L13 away / neutral games....Minny is 13-3 ATS L16 conf games and an impressive 13-4 L17 SU at home.

People taking Minny have to feel great about an epic coaching advantage....as well as the fact that Minny pass D has been excellent and Neb QB Armstrong 10/31 and 11/28 last 2 games...Minny still struggling to MATRICULATE in the passing game and this lack of ability to balance the offense (#100 - #68 rush #105 pass) makes it hard for them to score points....only exceeded 27 points once all year....But the D like we said has been very solid and does not give up much - think about giving up 23 to TCU even to say it was first game of the year Huskers are gonna have to earn everything they get.........On the flipside- check out this JUICY TIDBIT our Big 10 staff found on the internet.....Nebraska is just the 2nd team in the last 20 years to lose FOUR games in the last 10 seconds or OT in a season....and they are only SIX games in....Bad luck and beyond-bonehead coaching and decision making has got Nebraska in a big hole....They will be well motivated at 2-4....if they lose this one - they will need to win 4 of their last 5 games to make a bowl game and that includes games against mich st ....NW and Iowa.....so this is gonna be a tough one but think they do not mail it in just yet....Another check in the Huskers corner is that they rank #8 in rush D and #25 in yds/attempt rush D....A good matchup for them as they are burned regularly and often by good passing teams - Miami byu and SMiss got them for 36 33 28 .....other teams got them for 9 14 23.....Nebraska even outrushed Wisconsin - and nothwithstanding the depth issues at RB for Badgers - not a bad deal......Minn QB Leidner we believe still wearing braces on both knees he is crafty and tough but only 59 yards passing last wk....Will need to hit a couple big plays in the passing game.

Summary. No lean on side. Still analyzing total.

mega

 
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Posted: #157

THREAD SUMMARY

 

Plays......Should find more as we dig deeper

Stanford -6.5

 

Table of Contents for Write-Ups

S Alabama / Arkansas St 

Thursday games

Friday games

Hawaii / New Mexico (request line)

Florida St / Louisville (request line)

Big 10

NEXT UP -  SEC

 

  we will get to as many games as we can.....As all of us do on here - we have work...family....and personal commitments and can't do this 24/7 even though we pay our staff very well. We do this because we love the banter with Covers Nation  thanks for making it fun......

 
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Posted: #158

Quote Originally Posted by SteelerNation10:

so as of now. only pick on the card is stanford?

so far yes sir

 
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Posted: #159
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

THREAD SUMMARY

 

Plays......Should find more as we dig deeper

Stanford -6.5

 

Table of Contents for Write-Ups

S Alabama / Arkansas St 

Thursday games

Friday games

Hawaii / New Mexico (request line)

Florida St / Louisville (request line)

Big 10

NEXT UP -  SEC

 

  we will get to as many games as we can.....As all of us do on here - we have work...family....and personal commitments and can't do this 24/7 even though we pay our staff very well. We do this because we love the banter with Covers Nation  thanks for making it fun......


Don't push yourself MEGA, I prefer less games, which have strong arguments why to play them, then many games which are total gambles.

Keep up the good work!
 
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Posted: #160
Mega I'm hearing that Auburn is starting Jason Smith at QB tonight. He was a decent HS QB from here in Mobile, AL. Has not been doing well moving to wide out so it is back to QB for him. He is more of a Nick Marshall athletic type QB so maybe they are trying to go back to that style offense instead of the style of play so far this year. Not 100% sure he will start but that is what I am hearing. Not sure how it will play out if he does start for the first time on the road. But what do I know. Just wanted to let you know the info I am getting.
 
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Posted: #161
I'll tail you this week MEGA. Hopefully I don't bring you bad luck.  Even tho I'm on the right side for 3/4 of the games, some how the other end just ends up coming back while my team collapses and does not cover/stay with the game. Argh. 

Two examples were my West Michigan play who won by 2 only after giving up 21 pts in the fourth and Navy who were with ND majority of the first half until they literally let them walk down the field and kick a FG to end the first half. And then started second half with a turnover for a TD. I know it's apart of the game but those type of things are demoralizing. 

Anyways. BOL this week. 
 
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Posted: #162
Looking forward to SEC write ups.  Up 6 games in the office pick-em thanks to these threads.  Lets keep it rolling, Mega.  
 
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Posted: #163
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

 Urban. Thanks for sharing. Impossible to include everything in my write-ups appreciate the feedback. Houston sure looks like a good one........Only worry would be Duke's D much better than Houston and so is Temple's. No doubt Tulane is putrid. GL buddy !

 

Iowa 2.5 Northwestern (41)

Megalocks line pk

Sagarin NW -1.5

Hard for anyone to call out NW this wk off a 38-cack loss at Michigan....Before that NW had done nothing really wrong - ya we get it - they are not good on offense but the D is solid and they are well coached.....Would like to at least catch a FG to play NW - home team is 5-0L5 straight up and this one should be a close game determined by turnovers - Battle of wills 2 good run teams vs 2 good run Ds....Canzeri 697 rush for iowa and Jackson 661 for NW - We noted that we would play either team in this one catching 3.5 which is what we usually do in a game we have lined at a pick em.......Under also looks pretty good calling for a 22-19 type game and hard to imagine many more points than that......Iowa missed leading sack machine from last yr and 2nd this yr in Ott OFY fwiw.....Iowa 6-0 can technically "afford" a loss and NW already one conf loss would be down 2 to iowa with a loss and virtually out of division contention if they stumble - not sure that matters but just pointing it out - both teams should be plenty motivated obviously.

Summary. No lean on side at this price. Will watch line move. Lean under.

mega



Iowa is not only without Ott, one of the best DE's in the country...

...The QB is severely gimpy but going to start, Iowa's best WR is out, both starting OT's are out (Freshman guard now moving to Tackle, ouch), and Iowa former starting RB is out.

 Iowa loses this game, and goes into their bye week at 6-1
 
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Posted: #164
PS: What does "Sagarin " mean? 
 
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Posted: #165
"Sagarin" is named after Carl Sagarin the astrophysicist.  He coined the phrase "the pale blue dot" to describe earth when they had the Voyager 1 space probe turn around and take a picture of the earth from about 6 billion kilometers in space. 

he also was one of the worlds greatest football cappers who's handle was "Sagan". 

true story.
 
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Posted: #166
...or he's Jeff Sagarin, the acclaimed sports statistician...
 
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Posted: #167
SEC SEC SEC SEC SEC :)
 
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Posted: #168

blacklist - counterpoint !

JVH1818 - thanks bud appreciate it ......All kinds of threads on here that are great and that cater to what different people want....Some guys post a few games - some post a lot - some post only once in a while...Some specialize in certain conferences or teams...etc....By now people realize that we try to analyze as many games as possible for you guys but it is mostly to help with your own wagers and style of play. Thankfully our picks have been very good again this year but still lots of football left. GL !

Head dx - great Auburn intel - thanks bro GL

SCC - Sagarin Ratings can be found on the USA Today website - they are just one of many sets of Power Ratings out there that one can use to come up with a suggested fair line for a game. We do our own and look at these for comparison - as well as look at the PR from guys like DoubleUp and Bookie. We use PR just to get a sense of a fair spread. Nothing else. GL

BamaBets  congrats on dominating your office pool ....make sure that the Annoying Chick who always talks about her cats does not win.

Nikolausp- thanks bro....good intel

 

 

 
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Posted: #169

Dodgy

chad77 -  roll tide

 
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Posted: #170
Quote Originally Posted by Igglez:

Quote Originally Posted by GASportsDoc:

Mega. Long time listener, first time caller. Request Line Sir. Possible Crack Pipe Special. New Mexico St. +29. over Georgia Southern. Southern has a HUGE game on tap just 5 days later against App.St. Last year was an 8 point game. I can see Southern getting up and then preparing starters for the App. St. game. I would love to hear your thoughts. Keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the star. Thanks for your input weekly.
I started a thread on this one. Home teams off byes, favored between 21 and 35 are covering 73% of the time. 53-20 ats, and ga southern falls into this category.


Is there a way to calculate a team looking ahead at a huge rivalry game on a short week? I live an hour away from Ga. Southern. App St. Is one of their biggest rivals. Remember they played in the SoCon together until they both moved to the SunBelt!! A look ahead for Ga. Southern against a familiar foe, on the road, on National T.V. (ESPNU) is a very real possibility.
 
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Posted: #171
Quote Originally Posted by SCC:

PS: What does "Sagarin " mean? 

Here's the direct link to the Sagarin site - It is substantially easier to use than accessing through USA Today

https://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

FYI, I think it was BookieAssassin who provided some analysis that Sagarin was only about 50% accurate last year.  So, Sagarin is not gospel, but is a tool in the capping tool box  
 
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Posted: #172
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

THREAD SUMMARY
 
Plays......Should find more as we dig deeper
Stanford -6.5
 
Table of Contents for Write-Ups
S Alabama / Arkansas St 
Thursday games
Friday games
Hawaii / New Mexico (request line)
Florida St / Louisville (request line)
Big 10
NEXT UP -  SEC
 
  we will get to as many games as we can.....As all of us do on here - we have work...family....and personal commitments and can't do this 24/7 even though we pay our staff very well. We do this because we love the banter with Covers Nation  thanks for making it fun......

mega so the only pick tonight is Sanford... 2 more games on tonight
 
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Posted: #173
Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:

This guy is a fraud. Not a single write-up on any big time matchups this week




given the fact that so far U HAVE BEEN A HUGE FADE, and are a has been , shell of ur former self , its not polite to come into some one else thread and make a statement like the one u did , no need of writeups on any marquee game, u wanna do it, do ti urself in ur thread loser


 
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Posted: #174
Deller 

Rico. 

Shark 


Should get to most of the SEC if not all by tonight and hopefully find a freaking pick or two
 
 
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Posted: #175
Quote Originally Posted by BreakDBookie:

Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

THREAD SUMMARY Plays......Should find more as we dig deeperStanford -6.5 Table of Contents for Write-Ups S Alabama / Arkansas St  Thursday gamesFriday gamesHawaii / New Mexico (request line)Florida St / Louisville (request line)Big 10 NEXT UP -  SEC   we will get to as many games as we can.....As all of us do on here - we have work...family....and personal commitments and can't do this 24/7 even though we pay our staff very well. We do this because we love the banter with Covers Nation  thanks for making it fun......
mega so the only pick tonight is Sanford... 2 more games on tonight

Thanks Megalock
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