nostradamus week 1

You have so many sharp plays week 1 in my opinion.  That 10.5 sat there forever on texas tech.  I considered gobbling it just so I could middle off of a 14 at kickoff .. or keep if i liked later.  I knew i could get off of it with a small middle at a minimum.  Good value bet. 

Quite frankly just agree on a ton of your action.  So I will read your thread this year since you actually give some reasoning.

Have a good season sir.

all - appreciate the good words, from what we've seen the past few years with various sports on this site, imo college football forum easily has the best group of handicappers, BOL all

upperdeck - like both those teams USC and TT so wouldn't disagree, don't play many teasers though since variance is pretty high (i.e. if USC doesn't win by 19 it's not much stretch to be a 10 pt game), might play a couple teasers each year where one team is catching a few and game is tight

doc - agree sun belt can be tricky...some inconsistent teams and then playing each other on top of it, tend to stay away from the Ark St vs FIU type matchups as not so predictable

goat - yeah that's pretty much the case 2u+ would be large, each year is a little different..stretches of .500 not uncommon during the season, goal is to have the better of it long term and keep firing

jay - that's fair SMU definitely more stable as TT breaks in new coaches and somewhat new offense,mostly already factored into line though since number would have been around 20 end of last year, TT capable of laying an egg if not focused such as against NM and Baylor last year

pack - bookmaker and thegreek are both solid, pinnacle (if not in US), for low juice and don't mind getting late lines some like matchbook

cougs - nothing personal against the Cougars, have heard the same thing and do believe they will be much improved with good young QB...another guy I like is DL Rankin coming in from JC, could be the best since Long (whatever happened to that guy), just think the number and been quite awhile since WSU close in a road game, look forward to your P10 insights again this year and hope WSU continues to improve, GL

Texas 48 Rice 13 - Horns pretty much own series (captain obvious at your service) winning last few in series by avg 49-11, Owls light DL (270 avg) not likely to cause much problems and not seeing any LBs anything special...unless Gilbert is shaky, could be not much changes

Nebraska 52 WKU 10 - Huskers have been pretty good 8-4 ATS in early nonconference games past few years, new OC mixing in some option and other to give some life to the offense. WKU DL (260 avg) not likely to phase, believe JC transfer Pelasasa could be good upgrade at QB for hilltoppers, unfortunately he cannot play defense and probably gets mostly hammered here

Va Tech 27 Boise St 20 - VT solid 9-4 ATS over last 3 years as an underdog, crowd will be 90% VT fans and not much separating the teams on the field, BSU just 3-4 straight up against BCS schools since 2005 and not much track record in road games during that time, BSU defense obviously solid however did give up 200+ rushing in 3 games last year and believe RBs can do some damage

Maryland 23 Navy 21 - Terps maybe the best 2-10 team in the country and should improve poor offensive and defensive numbers, still not bad rush defense at 3.7 ypr should be able to contains Navy a few times. Terps should be able to move some against light front 7 missing some experience, Middies not great in favorite role going 7-11 ATS over three years. Upset.

It would be metaphysically imposible not to be. 

good to see many vets around early this year

slo, thizz, odds - GL this year fellas

Auburn 52 Ark St 13 - normally solid ASU defense could take a step back with DL losses and new CBs although Edwards looks to be pretty good, new OC going to throw more and run some hurry up offense, challenging Malzahn to shooting match probably equivalent to wrestling grizzly bears, not really seeing many playmakers on ASU offense and Roberts giving some indication of pointing to conference play

Oklahoma St 38 Wash St 17 - like the addition of Rankin to DL and Tuel has potential...still Cougars no road wins since 2007 (none closer than 14...24-10 vs Hawaii), OSU won 39-13 in 2008 matchup, if healthy Hunter should do some damage and not convinced WSU secondary can keep pace with passing game unless Weeden and new QBs fall apart

LSU 23 No Carolina 14 - Tigers have played pretty well in Atlanta, despite all the focus on UNC defense, LSU has comparable numbers (actually slightly better) on defense (3.5 ypc, 6.1 ypp) vs (2.9 ypc, 6.4 ypp) (against tougher schedule) and owns more playmakers on offense especially if Shepherd is used more as expected, possible suspensions would be a bonus

Arizona 30 Toledo 23 - Rockets have been pretty good home dog 6-3 ATS since 2006, believe new QB Dantin will be improvement over Opelt and some playmakers at RB and WR could do some business against rebuilding Arizona front 7 (other than great DEs), new OC and DC, Wildcats with two road wins by more than 2 TDs since 2006 and turf is not their best surface

Miss St 26 Memphis 13 - not easy to take Memphis after last year, it's possible Miss St could go off for 35+ against Tiger defense that was poor LY (especially against the pass giving up 9.1 ypp)...not sure if Bulldogs the best team to exploit secondary weakness and DL Poe (350) could clog things up, hard to see anyone matching Dixon's numbers rushing, Miss St over 31 pts one time in last couple years (not including Jackson St and SE LA) and one win by 21+ (MTSU) although true haven't had the luxury of playing Memphis, hoping that frosh Williams starts at QB for Memphis (or Bass) since Smith not impressive

Have another great year Nostra. Enjoy following your posts. 

to all you smartasses, i did not realize that the lines were out and nos was pulling actual current lines.

the texas spread does seem low.  gilbert, though he improved in the 2nd half of the bama game, is still a question mark.  our backup qb sherrod harris quit football yesterday.  so we will have a true freshman as our backup qb.  not good if anything happens to gilbert.  and he only has 3/4 of one game of experience under his belt

our d and in particular our secondary will be stout.  i doubt rice will score more than 7 and that will be against the 3rd team.  the game will be in reliant which is where the texans play and not rice's home stadium.  there will be 50K texas exes in the stands.   people rag our running backs, but i can assure you, we have talent there.  colt mccoy has been our offense by design and these rb's have not been able to break out due to the focus on colt.  i think mack will focus on the run in game one which may speend up the game and justify a lower line v. a traditional texas first game...

nos - i like the usc, ok, and nebraska picks.  it was a blow to usc that they suspended stanly havili indefinitely due to fighting with a teammmate yesterday.  usc has been through a lot.  will they come out with a us v. the world perspective and dominate hawaii or will the distractions of the probation and defections keep them from being focussed and help hawaii to a back door cover???

center, tiasman, skan - same to you, BOL this season

longhorn - hopefully MB does not get too conservative working on the running game, some chance Havili gets reinstating before the season otherwise not so good

BA - good stuff, yeah seems like awkward spot for Arizona with nonconference and travel, and replacing Dykes and Stoops, Dantin needs to be decent though since Arizona probably gets 30+...believe should be ok based on some time LY and in spring

tball - hard to disagree with UNC under, would have to wait awhile to see if UNC loses much like you say

...U really went out on limb taking Toledo, one my fav teams to route for,  i just have not seen them beat any bcs team above .500 at home in a while, but i could be wrong...Zona always has playmakers on DEF its just their OFF that worries me, but now they have a ret QB and nice player @ RB... i will be on ZONA(in a blowout) friday night , so one of us will be laughing at the other ,  i aint mad @ u bro...

goat - it's the win amount

red - GL this season bro

QB - yeah Toledo is pretty inconsistent, has played some decent ones at home (Colo, Fres, Kansas, etc) and then some not so good getting blown out by FIU, like the 2nd year coach and not sure Arizona that interested in 17-21pt+ blowout in that setup ....still wager on smaller side after all its still Toledo

Im pounding that tex game with you, good luck this year Nos.