nostradamus week 1

big10, whodey, prime - BOL this season

ill -  might try 3% per unit, GL

adding

NW-Vandy under 44.5 (0.75u)

Wisky-UNLV under 58 (0.75u)

Northwestern 20 Vandy 15 - expecting both defenses to be pretty solid in this matchup, Vandy under this total 12-6 at home since 2007, expect Persa to be pretty quick to take off running....49 rushes while attempting 34 passes last year, and not as likely in first road start to do much damage passing against good secondary, Vandy defense rarely gives up big numbers allowing more than 27 in 6 of last 37 games (none in Sept), NW front 7 should be able to contain Dore offense and rebuilding OL

Wisconsin 31 UNLV 14 - at first it might seem like the Badgers should destroy UNLV team allowing 5.8 ypc last year which could happen, however expecting UNLV run defense to be improved this year with some size and return of Bell, Badgers likely to be content to grind out solid win in the heat, won here 20-13 (as 25 pt favorite) in '07 in similar matchup, new coaching staff for UNLV will be incorporating pro style attack with more emphasis on running game and not likely to bother Wisky run defense (2.7 ypr)

updated week 1

Oklahoma -28 (large) (3u)

Georgia -25 (large) (3u)

USC -18.5 (large) (2u)

Texas Tech -10.5 (large) (2u)

Texas -26 (1.5u)

Nebraska -33

Va Tech +3 (hook)

Maryland +7

Auburn -30.5

Oklahoma St -14

LSU PK

Toledo +14 (0.75u)

Memphis +20 (0.75u)

NW-Vandy under 44.5 (0.75u)

Wisky-UNLV under 58 (0.75u)

that should do it other than maybe small play on write-in game (FCS) or team total when available in a couple weeks, time to check out some week 2...numbers out Sept 5th

I like Northwestern better at -2.5 personally but the under should be solid as well.  Vandy defense in the past has been their strength but with only returning 5 starters do you have any perspective on how there D is coming together? 

Also be careful with Pitt in week one in my opinon this game is screaming to me Utah wins by 10. 

odds - back 7 should be fine, DL is thin after Smotherman injury, like several of the new young players - Graham, Kadri, Daniels, May, Fugger several saw time LY or looked good in spring, players graduated were mostly nothing special, Marve is the cornerstone along with Richardson and Hayward, could be wrong just my take

dahippie - just bought the 1/2 pt in VT, the rest are the original number, ultimately found it makes little difference, for example if buy 1 on 10 games entire year (230 games) and makes push on just 1 of the 10 then it's a wash, buying on too many games or buying full point then it gets costly

bracks - 38-13 would be ok with me

Big card to start the season............I like a lot of them.

 GL bro ..........only 3 weeks til kickoff

I absolutely agree with you on the Northwestern/Vandy game. I hate going against a SEC home dog against an out-of-conference opponent, but I think Northwestern rolls the Commadores on their home field.

horn - well NIU plays some of the bigger schools pretty tough 6-3 ATS however not winning many straight up so number sounds about right and ISU probably wins a tight one, Iowa on deck for ISU, no lean with too many conflicting factors, GL

mugg, jimmy - looking forward to your insights again, BOL this season

adding 0.25u to Nebraska (add on at 35), Va Tech and Okla St

updated week 1

Oklahoma -28 (large) (3u)

Georgia -25 (large) (3u)

USC -18.5 (large) (2u)

Texas Tech -10.5 (large) (2u)

Texas -26 (1.5u)

Nebraska -33 (1.25u) (0.25 @ 35)

Va Tech +3 (hook) (1.25u)

Maryland +7

Auburn -30.5

Oklahoma St -14 (1.25u)

LSU PK

Toledo +14 (0.75u)

Memphis +20 (0.75u)

NW-Vandy under 44.5 (0.75u)

Wisky-UNLV under 58 (0.75u)

plus earlier 8 team parlay - OU, UGA, USC, TT, Neb, Texas, VT and MD (0.05u to win 6)....might make good downpayment on 2012 camaro z28  https://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2010/08/2012-chevrolet-camaro-z28-6-2l-supercharged-monster-rendered-into-reality.html

injury notes (not including opposing teams)...nothing new happens every year...only injuries to certain QBs or AJ Green would be enough to consider reducing wager with offset

Georgia - LB Dent (doubtful), WR King (out)....capable replacements for both, getting thin at LB

USC - DL Perry (out), OL Lewis (questionable), hopefully DB Bryant recovered in time, RB Baxter (out) could have added some playmaking however good depth

Texas - OL Allen, DT Howell both questionable...Horns good overall depth should be ok

Nebraska - OL Smith...Huskers have good depth on OL

Va Tech - OL Becton, LB Rivers questionable....more concerned with Becton since backup not looking so good

no more injuries please

Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

Big Card......

I will have one too before its over. Week 1 lines IMO are more sharp than in years past.

toughest week 1 I have seen in many moons, hard to find alot of bets for me at this point

horn

boom, wahoo - agree most of the lines were pretty tight other than maybe a couple that were since corrected, looking forward to the season seems like the days are dragging along

The countdown has begun and I can't wait for the start of College Football and your insight buddy.

BOL Nos

slo - what's happening bro, usually do not track down the real opener since it really doesn't matter (and would just be annoying to know what I just missed on),  I just log onto bookmaker and the greek Sun nights and lock in whatever number we can get, many times do not get the true opener since it can move very fast, there's sites out there that track that stuff however not really aware of which is the most accurate, below looks somewhat accurate although see a few possible 1/2 differences (probably because each book posts their own opener which can vary), GL this year slo

https://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/usatoday/ncaaf.aspx

canada - looking forward to the season, BOL buddy

Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

Big Card......

I will have one too before its over. Week 1 lines IMO are more sharp than in years past.

According to my Numbers and #'s ,the Oddsmakers are Very Sharp on both the  Lines/Spreads and the Season Win Totals ....

slo - no problem buddy

skipster, double, wahoo - those were some tight lines, always interesting to see openers...especially if you can hit the confirm button before it moves...can still remember couple years ago when wahoo got USC -4 over Neb (closed around 10)

Nost,  Love your short and to the point choices and your quick answers.  No point in those long drawn out eat your brain novels that some find necessary.

GL,   Doc