TD21 where are you?

@TD21

 Agreed on Nebraska i was all happy w the -3.5 / -4 ish line .. woulda hedged at some point for likely super slugfest matchup and now basically just viggin out a good part of it .. tough to say what Neb will look like here .. 350 pass yds last game tough sleddin running and i assume still down a few RB's in this game .. i got under 45 and hit again at 41 which is my main play on that now .. 

Thx for the read on Miami yeah we'll see guess I gotta put something on Kent St and make sure I get paid .. unfortunately pick'em i think Kent should be + a couple points here so lower value hedge .. ugh .. 

Good luck! 

Oh buddy I asked BA this question for my Pitt hedge wondering what you think neutral field Pitt line is vs Wake or Clem .. would help me with that hedge .. I don't think its too far off from the DK futures Wake 2.5-1 and Clem 18-1 but might depend a bit on what the champ game ML's will be .. im thinking slimmest +3 or 3.5 .. +150ish .. could see it a bit more .. one guys internet model I reference to says both clem and wake about a 3.5 pt fav lol .. sure hope its nothing even close to a pick'em .. 

Good luck buddy

@Bridge1

Bridge, might be late tonight or tomorrow, but I’ll get back to you on the ACC championship lines for Pitt.  I’m a little behind on crunching updated PR#s at the moment, been focusing more on the $ side.

Bumped WMU -6.5 -105 for another 0.5u.

Been busy tonight with boys basketball..... Knock on wood, but MAC games looking "as expected" tonight.  

RE: About to put BSU -6.5 in an open parlay as well to pair with UDML plays.  See post #177 above.

......Took this UDML parlay earlier tonight (full parlay at 0.09u and x2s, x3s, & x4s for another 0.91u) -- (1u risked overall).  First chance to post.

Also have another 0.1u parlay with Ball State -6.5 with 6 open slots.

Ball State -6.5

Nebraska / Iowa Under 41

Florida State ML +125

Northwestern ML +205

Middle Tennessee State +155

Kentucky +125

Oregon State +225

Updated...... got great #s on NDSU and SDSU based on the latest odds after Week 12 & bracket announcement.  Not so much for SIU & EWU (bad draw not having a bye week for EWU).

FCS National Championship Futures:

South Dakota State +2000 (0.25u)

North Dakota State +400 (0.25u)

Southern Illinois +2500 (0.1u)

Eastern Washington +2000 (0.1u)

James Madison +600 (0.12u) 

Added:  Montana +2000 (0.1u)

Oops, ..... one more minor update for FCS Futures:

FCS National Championship Futures:

South Dakota State +2000 (0.25u)

North Dakota State +400 (0.25u)

Southern Illinois +2500 (0.1u)

Eastern Washington +2000 (0.1u)

James Madison +600 (0.12u) & Added: JMU +1000 (0.03u)

Added:  Montana +2000 (0.1u)

@Bridge1

Bridge, I'm not quite done yet, but if they played today my estimates (not my own lines) of what Circa would open are:

Pitt -2 vs. Wake Forest

Clemson -4/-4.5 vs. Pitt

*neutral field for both

@Bridge1

Bridge,

Going from memory of what I came up with last night, but FWIW my numbers came up with:

Wake -1.5 / -2 ish vs. Pitt (believe I had them -8.5 / -9 vs Boston College - which is what -5 opener for comparison.  But WF trending down some of late after the softer early season schedule.

And Clemson -2 / -2.5 I think it was vs. Pitt.  Vegas still with a “tax” on an improving Clemson team, i.e., -14 opener bet down to -11.5 where it’s settled vs. South Carolina.

Using post week 10 South Carolina PR# and current Clemson PR # I had Clemson by 11.8, so actually a little less with SC win over Auburn. ….. suddenly two weeks behind on many conferences, will catch up over the long weekend.  Need to get ready for FCS playoffs 

@TD21

Good stuff TD and thanks .. yeah my sense was gamblers gunna be looking for a hottt PITT team and just kinda expect Pitt to be favored here by some amount .. 3's or so .. but absolutely could see some surprise very slim line and maybe the other way .. 

Thanks again very helpful 

The other open parlay mentioned above is now filled:

Ball State -6.5 with the following....

Iowa / Nebraska Under 41

Rutgers ML +108

Miami (OH) -1

Georgia Southern +24.5

Florida State +2.5

Southern Miss ML -400

(risking 0.1u to win 6.81u)

Really just action plays here, not as caught up as I wanted to be and don't love the card.  Some wind for a couple of these games.

FCS Playoffs 1st round:

UC Davis / South Dakota State Under 49.5  (0.4u)

South Dakota State -17  (0.3u)

Sacred Heart / Holy Cross Under 41  (0.3u)  ..... missed Sacred Heart +18.5, took this instead.

Stephen F. Austin +3.5  (0.2u)

Northern Iowa +6  (0.2u)

Kennesaw State -23.5  (0.15u)

Good luck buddy tailing on those SDSU plays .. Wish I kept playing but man I just don't have anywhere offering FCS until gameday  .. don't have any futures ..

SDSU 20-1?!.. with those RB's and landed Okogokoglungoko from Samford knew that he would be a hit .. was that after one of the losses or pre-ssn or is that now? .. either way sounds pretty good .. 

Good luck today!

@Bridge1

Bridge, that was only a week ago.  Right after the debacle ending vs. South Dakota and with 1 regular season game to play.  They're a little beat up maybe is my only concern for them trying to make a deep run.  Losing the other RB that was beast mode in the spring title game in week 2 of this fall season hurts too.  But value wise, that future play is very good. They're top 2 in FCS for Power Rating IMO.

@TD21

One FBS added play....

Week 13:

Southern Miss -9.5  (1.5u)

Iowa / Nebraska Under 45  (0.5u), U41.5 (0.5u) & U42 -121 (0.4u) -- (1.4u overall)

Ball State -6.5 & -6.5 -105  (1.25u overall)

Western Michigan -3.5  (0.75u) & -6.5 (0.5u) -- (1.25u overall)

Texas A&M -6  (1u)

*Washington State +3  (0.75u)

Notre Dame -15.5  (0.75u)

BYU - 7 (0.4u) & -6.5 -105 (0.35u) -- (0.75u overall)

Boise State -3 (0.5u) & -2.5 (0.25u) -- (0.75u overall)

Fresno State -8.5  (0.5u) & -7 -105 (0.25u) -- (0.75u overall)

Texas Tech / Baylor Under 51.5  (0.75u)

*Ohio State -6.5 (0.5u)

*Oregon State +13  (0.5u)

Northwestern +6.5  (0.5u)

Alabama -19  (0.5u)

Colorado +24.5  (0.5u)

Colorado / Utah Under 52  (0.4u)

*Florida State +10  (0.4u)

*Oklahoma State +1  (0.4u)

Georgia Southern +24.5  (0.3u)

East Carolina +14 (0.3u)

South Florida +18  (0.3u)

*Ole Miss -2  (0.3u)

Added:  Penn State / Michigan State Under 52 -120  (0.3u)

Western Kentucky +1.5  (0.25u)

Missouri +15.5  (0.25u)

Tulsa +7  (0.2u)

*Nebraska PK  (0.3u) & buy-back with Iowa ML -120 (0.25u)

Conference Future:

WSU to win the P12 @ +1800 (0.055u to win 0.99u)

More on this same game.....

Week 13:

Southern Miss -9.5  (1.5u)

Iowa / Nebraska Under 45  (0.5u), U41.5 (0.5u) & U42 -121 (0.4u) -- (1.4u overall)

Ball State -6.5 & -6.5 -105  (1.25u overall)

Western Michigan -3.5  (0.75u) & -6.5 (0.5u) -- (1.25u overall)

Texas A&M -6  (1u)

*Washington State +3  (0.75u)

Notre Dame -15.5  (0.75u)

BYU - 7 (0.4u) & -6.5 -105 (0.35u) -- (0.75u overall)

Boise State -3 (0.5u) & -2.5 (0.25u) -- (0.75u overall)

Fresno State -8.5  (0.5u) & -7 -105 (0.25u) -- (0.75u overall)

Texas Tech / Baylor Under 51.5  (0.75u)

*Ohio State -6.5 (0.5u)

*Oregon State +13  (0.5u)

Northwestern +6.5  (0.5u)

Alabama -19  (0.5u)

Colorado +24.5  (0.5u)

Colorado / Utah Under 52  (0.4u)

*Florida State +10  (0.4u)

*Oklahoma State +1  (0.4u)

Added:  Penn State / Michigan State Under 52 -120  (now made it 0.4u)

Added:  Penn State -5.5 -105  (0.3u)

Georgia Southern +24.5  (0.3u)

East Carolina +14 (0.3u)

South Florida +18  (0.3u)

*Ole Miss -2  (0.3u)

Western Kentucky +1.5  (0.25u)

Missouri +15.5  (0.25u)

Tulsa +7  (0.2u)

*Nebraska PK  (0.3u) & buy-back with Iowa ML -120 (0.25u)

Conference Future:

WSU to win the P12 @ +1800 (0.055u to win 0.99u)

Any insight to which starters are out today? Or you just like under anyway?

@Freddy66

Sorry I missed this yesterday.  That late Penn State score hurt.  Tough loss there.  And it caused me to split my in-game Unders as well (U56.5 and U64.5)  I'm not sure if MSU scores again or runs out the clock, but they have to be able to get off the field when it's 4th & 24.

Mixed emotions after this weekend, came out ahead for Week 13 and also for RSW Totals, but some of the Futures (Miami OH) and in-game hedges could have gone better.  And held off on two FCS leans that both won of course.  Still need to tally up the exact amounts.

Coulda / shoulda taken the -3.5 lookahead line last week, but let's get this one over with:

Georgia -6 -108  (1.75u) in the SEC title game.

Miami Oh .. OHHHHH My Lord .. yeah skunked on that and wanted a Boise win to get AF in the champ game .. wanted NC State to meet pitt and have both sides of those covered off .. we'll see what happens .. and yeeep Wake line very slim .. hoping that heads north a couple points before kickoff .. a real battle of the "how much pressure can Pitt get on their QB w out making their own mistakes" .. think that's actually the difference here because Pitt should really eat their defense up and have to hope the ball doesn't have a funny bounce to it .. 

Grabbed that UGA -3.5 look ahead last week and yeah thinking if I double down or not .. Really wanted to hit a sneak attack Bama / UGA OVER .. very very very tough to play when we see Bama get their run shut down by LSU and Auburn and the offense just vanishes.. and run wasn't even great for Arkansas .. Bryce Young able to make up for that .. if run gets shut down again think we need to rely on UGA to hang up 35ish .. could but just not a great spot to be in needing Kirby to land you 17 or so in H2 when all he needs to do is win by 1 and lock up a top seed .. could prob still lock up the top seed with a loss .. 

Interesting Heisman race all of a sudden too .. I mean one guy kinda proved he wasn't a Heisman last week and he's layin -425 lol .. hint it wasn't the guy hittin 70% passing for 400 yds 2 TD's no picks in a hostile blizzard ..  media fantasy world must be putting their thumb down hard on that one i guess  we'll see if he's still a monster fav after UGA lol .. would be great to see more of a feel good heisman from a place your not surrounded by 5 star athletes ..  Kenny P or Kenny W III both very worthy in my opinion ..  

Good luck buddy!

Didn't we just see Wyoming smoke Utah State like 50 - zip in Logan and we think SDSU is more just a slight fav after really proving themselves as a worthy div champ vs thinking a pretty improved boise team that finally had some of their run game woes cleaned up and some legit offensive weaponry? .. idk .. might get surprised w another ho-humm SDSU offensive outting but seems too many ways for them to set themselves up with the D .. even the punter is a legit weapon ..  

Championship Week:

Georgia -6 -108  (1.75u)

FCS Playoffs - 2nd Round:

Montana -3  (1.6u)

JMU -13.5 (1u)

Holy Cross / Villanova Under 49.5  (0.7u)

Montana / Eastern Washington Under 60  (0.5u)

These are getting juiced a lot after minimal wagers against them.  Almost better to wait on the number to move and then have a more reasonable price than where some of them are currently as I post this.