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Week 1 CFB

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Posted: #26
I haven't locked in any games yet
 
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Posted: #27
so what are you liking at this point?
 
 
some smaller spreads that you may like:
 
Minn (-6.5)... Eric Decker was a beast last year... in the first 8 games Minny went 7-1 (lost @ Ohio St)... he put up ridiculous numbers... but then he got injured in the 2Q against NW, and they lost their last 4 games... badly... Minny has 17 returning starters... and most importantly... what most people don't know is that Syracuse has already been hammered by injuries... anybody who doesn't have money against Syracuse in the first two weeks is throwing away money... Minnesota will win by at least 4 TDs...
 
UAB (-4)... if you can get it at that line still... if not, under a TD should still be good... Rice lost all of their key skill position players that were responsible for their ridiculous offense... UAB has one of the best kept secrets in football in Joe Webb, and have 10 returning starters on offense (16 overall)...
 
 
basically, at the risk of giving away the single most profitable angle in CFB... anyone who can count to 18 can make money the first 2-3 weeks, simply by betting on teams with 16+ returning starters when they play against teams with few returning starters... i have never seen this angle fail to rake in money... and i highly doubt it ever will... there is a very strong reason it works, and it always will...
 
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Posted: #28
added:
 
Stanford (-16.5)
 
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Posted: #29
This should be my final week 1 card, other than adding a couple of small plays...
 
will most likely play Okie St, but i'm pretty sure that line will drop... Tulsa will also most likely be a small play... still thinking about Oregon... and depending on where the VT line reopens, i might be on them as well...
 
 
Week 1 CFB Bets:
 
*Penn St (-27)
*UAB (-4)
Oklahoma (-21) -120
Illinois (-6.5) -115
Minnesota (-6.5)
LSU (-14)
Texas (-38)
Stanford (-16.5)
 
 
small play:  Cal (-21)
 
 
* - Best Bet
 
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Posted: #30
upgraded Cal (-21) to part of my normal card... too good of a play not to have a full unit on it... i will still consider doubling up at halftime, assuming i have already made a good amount of money leading up to that night game...
 
i am of the opinion that there is no easier win on the board than Cal... i think they will most likely be covering the 21 by halftime, so i can't take the gamble that i lose my chance to get a good win... i consider this a gimme...
 
 
Week 1 CFB Bets:
 
*Penn St (-27)
*UAB (-4)
*Cal (-21)
Oklahoma (-21) -120
Illinois (-6.5) -115
Minnesota (-6.5)
LSU (-14)
Texas (-38)
Stanford (-16.5)
 
 
* - Best Bet
 
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Posted: #31
Ice - there is genius in simplicity...thanks for the above angle.
 
I like OU -21(.5) a lot.  Other than the fact the Sooners have everyone back but 4 OL starters, they're significantly better at just about every position than BYU and they're hungry after the Florida loss.  Stoops is also not shy about running up a score to secure a ranking. 
 
The other reason I like about them is OU Offensive Coordinator Kevin Wilson has publicly stated he has 'zero' concern about this offensive line - the 4 new starters are all quality and have significant game experience. He just wouldn't do that with the high expectations already placed on this team unless he were very confident. The perception of a rebuilding OU OL is the only reason this number isn't a lot higher because they got everybody else back.  BYU will not be able to penetrate and Bradford will have a ridiculous day. OU's defense will bring down the hammer & stifle the outmanned Cougars & the Sooners easily cover IMO.
 
gwjtf
 
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Posted: #32
gw- check out my thread of this game.  OU is the best play on the board IMO.
 
BTW ICE, my card features a lot of the same teams.
 
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Posted: #33
gw... saw your post about this game on another thread... particularly like the info about the O-line... only question mark on this team...
 
Cal... i saw your card... looks good!
 
 
 
i'm gonna do a couple write-ups tonight, since i will have some free time...
 
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Posted: #34
Cal - had to look back a bit but found your thread....excellent points you made on the other side re: BYU I wasn't familiar with.  This should be a monster early season blow-out...52-17, etc.
 
Also got to see the excellent research you did on how early season large favs (-17+) have fared ATS over the past three years.
A truly excellent angle and one that I know our friend Ice fully takes advantage of himself in early season action. 
 
Here's to a very green week 1!
 
gwjtf
 
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Posted: #35
Nice card Iceman
 
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Posted: #36
Week 1 CFB Bets:
 
*Penn St (-27)
 
*UAB (-4) --Haven't looked into it yet, but a lot of people seem to be on it
*Cal (-21) --Just too many points for a team that beat them last year... I love Cal though...still chewing on it.
Oklahoma (-21) -120 --The last couple years, OKL puts on a clinic for teams like this...but I think BYU wins the MWC this year...another one that I'm still chewing on.
Illinois (-6.5) -115 --With the line you got, I like it.  I think Illinois will be a tough out this year and Missouri is taking a step backwards after the Chase Daniel era.  Still skittish as this could come down to a TD though.
Minnesota (-6.5) --Why is this line so low?  Love Minny.
LSU (-14) --A long way from home, another one I still got to chew on.
Texas (-38) 
Stanford (-16.5) --Haven't taken a look.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

upgraded Cal (-21) to part of my normal card... too good of a play not to have a full unit on it... i will still consider doubling up at halftime, assuming i have already made a good amount of money leading up to that night game...
 
i am of the opinion that there is no easier win on the board than Cal... i think they will most likely be covering the 21 by halftime, so i can't take the gamble that i lose my chance to get a good win... i consider this a gimme...
 
 
Week 1 CFB Bets:
 
*Penn St (-27)
*UAB (-4)
*Cal (-21)
Oklahoma (-21) -120
Illinois (-6.5) -115
Minnesota (-6.5)
LSU (-14)
Texas (-38)
Stanford (-16.5)
 
 
* - Best Bet
i love this card man ..... penn st spread and cal spread scare me........cal should kill maryland losing so many starters and all..... might take it still
 
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Posted: #38
thanks for the feedback guys... i'm about to do a couple write-ups... might help you make a decision if you are on the fence...
 
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Posted: #39
Penn St (-27) vs Akron:
 
returning starters... PSU: 10... Akron: 17
 
this is the only game on my card where i am greatly disadvantaged on this particular angle... but i'm not too concerned...
 
first off, returning 17 to a team that went 5-7 with an extremely easy schedule, and gave up 187 yards rushing per game (again, against an extremely easy schedule) is not necessarily a good thing... and on the other side, Penn St only returns 10, but they return some of the most important 10... in particular, 5th yr senior Daryll Clark, who i expect to have a really big year showing his experience... and Evan Royster, who is simply a monster of a RB that can break off an 80 yard TD run on any play...
 
so in this game, i see a PSU team that can just smash the ball down Akron's throat to the tune of roughly 400 yards rushing... i expect some big runs by Royster, who will probably only play the first half... and on the othe side of the ball, Penn St just has one of the stingiest defenses around... even when they are reloading...
 
i just like this game because i don't feel there is alot of unpredictability to it... Akron will be going backwards on offense most of the day... and Penn St will be gashing Akron for 7 yards a carry... even after the backups come into the game...
 
i don't expect a 56-3 score... but only giving up 27, i don't need it... 38-10 will do it, and if Penn St only wins this game by 4 TDs, there is gonna be hell to pay when JoPa lays into them on Monday morning...
 
i see 38-3 at the half... and PSU takes their foot off the pedal in the 2nd half...
 
this is not my favorite bet of the weekend, but it's a must bet... because if for any reason Penn St does not cover this, it will set up a soft line against Syracuse, which i will pound into a fine mush!  that should set up as one of the biggest blowouts of the year...
 
Final score:  48-13
 
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Posted: #40
I really like your card. I could see myself betting all of those games. Penn State and Texas should both cruise and UAB is one of my favorite ATS teams this season. Good luck.
 
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Posted: #41
Cal (-21) vs Maryland:
 
returning starters... Cal: 17... Md: 10
 
reversal of the previous game... i love playing this angle early in the season...
 
of course we all know this is a revenge game... if you know me, you know i put very little stock in revenge games... it is a very over-used angle in handicapping... just because Florida killed Tennessee last year does not mean Tenn is a good "revenge" bet... Oklahoma has beaten Baylor about 60 years running, does that make it a 60x revenge spot?  no...
 
but THIS game is a revenge angle... because the game in Maryland last year was a game where Cal got punched right in the face and couldn't get back up until it was too late... they came in riding high, and got knocked off their horse... they will be geeked up for some payback, trust me!
 
another great angle: gametime!  Cal couldn't deal well with the cross-country travel, and having to play at 9am PST... now, they get to turn the tables on an inexperienced Maryland team that does not play well on the road, having to play at 10pm EST on the other coast...
 
but forget all of that... because this game is about two things: O-line and D-line... Cal is among the best in the country on both sides... everyone is talking about how Cal is gonna move MD off the ball and just run Jahvid Best all day for huge gains... this may be true... probably is... BUT, that's not why i love it...
 
i love it because Maryland is not going to do ANYTHING on offense... Cal is gonna absolutely suffocate them, and by the time this game gets into the 2nd half (roughly midnight EST), Cal will have worn down Maryland's defense to a nub, and the holes that Best will be running through will look like truck lanes...
 
one other point... all the hate towards Riley is unjustified... the guy was given no chance to succeed last year... Tedford was an idiot to allow Longshore to split time with him, because Longshore has never displayed even the most remedial decision-making skills...
 
this year, Riley is the man... he won't be asked to win games, but he also isn't going to be handcuffed so much that teams can just put 8 or 9 in the box... he will have success throwing the ball in this game... no doubt about it...
 
the amount of angles favoring Cal in this game is just overwhelming... and even the line should tell you that... this is a very high line because the books know Maryland is way overmatched in this situation...
 
i think Cal covers by halftime, and absolutely annihilates Maryland...
 
Final score:  52-17
 
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Posted: #42
yea TO... i'm loving UAB as an under the radar team... i'll be shocked if they don't have a winning ATS record...
 
 
gotta take from the write-ups for now... more to come...
 
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Posted: #43
like it bud
 
 
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

so what are you liking at this point?
 
 
some smaller spreads that you may like:
 
Minn (-6.5)... Eric Decker was a beast last year... in the first 8 games Minny went 7-1 (lost @ Ohio St)... he put up ridiculous numbers... but then he got injured in the 2Q against NW, and they lost their last 4 games... badly... Minny has 17 returning starters... and most importantly... what most people don't know is that Syracuse has already been hammered by injuries... anybody who doesn't have money against Syracuse in the first two weeks is throwing away money... Minnesota will win by at least 4 TDs...
 
UAB (-4)... if you can get it at that line still... if not, under a TD should still be good... Rice lost all of their key skill position players that were responsible for their ridiculous offense... UAB has one of the best kept secrets in football in Joe Webb, and have 10 returning starters on offense (16 overall)...
 
 
basically, at the risk of giving away the single most profitable angle in CFB... anyone who can count to 18 can make money the first 2-3 weeks, simply by betting on teams with 16+ returning starters when they play against teams with few returning starters... i have never seen this angle fail to rake in money... and i highly doubt it ever will... there is a very strong reason it works, and it always will...


Being a long time Syracuse season ticket holder...I'm curious to know what those injuries are. If anything we're healthier than ever. NT Athur Jones (Pectoral) and DE Jared Kimmel (Knee) were are only injuries of concern but both are practicing fully and said to be at 100%.

We've lot a lot of 2nd/3rd tier players who have either transferred due to the coaching change or were unable to play due to academics...but our starters and core have been virtually untouched. 

Minny at 7 or under is a good play but I'm not too sure about 4 TD's seeing as they have decided to abandon the spread and utilize a pro-style attack under new new OC Fisch.

Minny is on the way up but it wasn't long ago (2 years) they were even more laughable than the Orange...
 
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Posted: #45
sup Snolan... yea i remember when Minnesota was one of the laughing stocks of CFB... not that long ago...
 
but right now it's your Orangemen... from what i've heard (i believe it was on The Herd, but could have been somewhere else), they have taken hits to their lines, but also the issues with transfers has left them totally depleted on their depth chart... an already weak team can't afford to be heading into the season with depth issues...
 
not to mention they have a baseball (or basketball) player as their starting QB, after the other guy transferred...
 
i remember Akron beating Syracuse on the road by like 5 TDs last year at the start of the season... if Akron can do it, Minnesota can definitely do it...
 
anyone thinking Syracuse will be significantly (if at all) better than last year is fooling themselves...
 
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Posted: #46
[Quote: Originally Posted by Ice4Blood]
sup Snolan... yea i remember when Minnesota was one of the laughing stocks of CFB... not that long ago...
 
but right now it's your Orangemen... from what i've heard (i believe it was on The Herd, but could have been somewhere else), they have taken hits to their lines, but also the issues with transfers has left them totally depleted on their depth chart... an already weak team can't afford to be heading into the season with depth issues...
 
not to mention they have a baseball (or basketball) player as their starting QB, after the other guy transferred...
 
i remember Akron beating Syracuse on the road by like 5 TDs last year at the start of the season... if Akron can do it, Minnesota can definitely do it...
 
anyone thinking Syracuse will be significantly (if at all) better than last year is fooling themselves...
[/Quote

The basketball guy (Greg Paulus) is currently our third string QB. Ryan Nassib is the starter. The only QB we had transfer was David Legree who never saw a snap in Orange. QB Andrew Robinson who started last years opener is our 3rd/4th string TE and QB Cameron Dantley who started most of last year is now our reserve.

Depth is an issue - but won't factor in is much (barring injury) in the first game of the season as it would later on.

The Akron game was embarrassing...but hey - it was 2 TD's and not 5!

And lastly - I'm going to sound like a homer - but this team will be VASTLY improved. Will it necessarily show up in the W/L column? Maybe not..the rebuilding road is long. But I think people totally overlook how bad former HC Greg Robinson really was. Great X's and O's guy (hence why he had success in the NFL) -but horrible at building players. He barely held any players to standards in the weight room and get this - didn't allow contact in practice. Yup...tackling...the most important thing in all of football - disallowed.

New HC Doug Marrone has totally revamped the football program. He reinstalled the training programs from under Coach Mac and Paul P and some players have already gained 10-30lbs of muscle since spring practice (Weight and BMI were done Monday.) We rarely saw any player make that type of progression in four years under Coach Robinson. Rumor has it a lot of players left due to the rigorous workouts/summer training. They were use to powder puff football.

Not saying we're going to turn it around overnight - but this years team will be a completely different team than what was on the field last year.
 
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Posted: #47
And sorry for writing a book in your thread...
 
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Posted: #48
must have missed this earlier - strong card, good write ups
 
nice early line lockdown on Texas, LSU
 
BOL this season ice
 
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Posted: #49
Nice write up's, for the most part I like the card. Perhaps a bit too chalk heavy, but I understand the angle 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Snolan... don't ever apologize for good feedback on my thread... write away, dude!
 
i totally understand your optimism... every new year brings new hope... and if you can avoid injuries, you'll have a chance to turn it around a bit... for me this is as much about liking Minnesota and the short spread as anything... but also the limited depth and walk-on QB issue... doesn't mean it is a sure thing... i just like my chances! 
 
might have exaggerated the Akron score, but i just remembered they put up 45 or something...
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