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Week 1 CFB

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Posted: #151
that's all i care about...
 
last year i managed to double up in week 1, so shooting for something along those lines again...
 
 
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Posted: #152
Ice...First time posting on your thread, love your advice and write ups.  You tell it how it is with no bullshit.  Well done and BOL this year.
 
 
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Posted: #153
yes i love reading his write ups, dont know if its because hes on the same teams and dont want to face an arguement, i know alot like to try to go back and forth and get talked out of what they are taking but me personally i have lost many times in the past when i go against what i think is correct.... so i like that he is stand up on what he picks....
and wish you all the best of luck this year....
 
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Posted: #154
Ice...question on money management.  Say you start w/ a bankroll of $1,000, what do you feel your max unit s/b and what should your daily max be.
 
I was thinking of 25 per unit with a daily max of 200 to start, as my bankroll hopefully goes up my unit remain at 25 but the daily may go up.
 
I would love your thoughts.
 
Thanks
 
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Posted: #155
Quote Originally Posted by cburk:

Ice...question on money management.  Say you start w/ a bankroll of $1,000, what do you feel your max unit s/b and what should your daily max be.
 
I was thinking of 25 per unit with a daily max of 200 to start, as my bankroll hopefully goes up my unit remain at 25 but the daily may go up.
 
I would love your thoughts.
 
Thanks

 

you are doing it right. But it always depends on how many games you feel good about..

 
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Posted: #156
cburk... was just having a discussion with Jordyn31 (i think that's the #) on another thread about this... you might want to check it out...
 
you basically have it right... the big no-no is increasing your unit amount as your bankroll goes up...
 
personally, my unit amount is 5% of my starting bankroll... and personally, i risk my anywhere between 75-100% of my bankroll in week 1... but i wouldn't necessarily advise that unless you are supremely confident...
 
as the season goes on, i will usually not have more than 50% of my bankroll risked in a given week... or even 25% if i have tripled or quadrupled my starting bankroll... i just like to take advantage of the easy pickins in the first couple weeks to build it up... after that i actually become more and more conservative... until Bowl Season, that is!
 
if you are kind of new to CFB betting, i think your approach is a good one... i can't preach enough how much of a learning process this SHOULD be for you when you are starting out... don't look at it as "make or break" whether you win or lose money this year... i've had losing seasons that were invaluable because of what i learned, and those lessons ultimately paid off in the longrun... practice good money management, and get a feel for how the season rolls along... what you learn will probably be worth more than what you win...
 
i still learn some new things every season...
 
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Posted: #157
Ice...Thanks for the advice, it sounds like the best thing is to pick a strategy and stick with it, and most importantly learn from it.  I have been doing this for about a year now with a varied amount of success.  I believe following advice from people such as yourself is wise for someone like me, working full time and w/ a family, I don't have the time to cap like others, I tend to go more w/ my gut.
 
Thanks again!!! 
 
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Posted: #158
Quote Originally Posted by cburk:

Ice...Thanks for the advice, it sounds like the best thing is to pick a strategy and stick with it, and most importantly learn from it.  I have been doing this for about a year now with a varied amount of success.  I believe following advice from people such as yourself is wise for someone like me, working full time and w/ a family, I don't have the time to cap like others, I tend to go more w/ my gut.
 
Thanks again!!! 

 

I dont want to speak for Ice, but if u need any help this year with capping games, feel free to jump in with us or you are welcome to check mine out..

 
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Posted: #159
Hoping you hit cuz that cougar looks hungry!!
 
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Posted: #160
cburk... always here for advice... don't mind you following my picks, but just always remember it is your money and your choice to make the bets... if you tail someone, take the responsibility for that decision... if i have a bad week i will be pissed off enough for losing the money... don't need anyone else reminding me of it...
 
as JWheels once said... "Never blame when you tail, and never tail to blame!"
 
 
 
pfly... that's a snow leopard, actually... baddest animal on the planet...
 
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Posted: #161
ice, give me your opinion on toledo vs purdue, im really starting to like toledo here to win outright
 
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Posted: #162
haven't looked too deeply at the game... was thinking i might give Toledo  look, but when i broke down the game there was something i wasn't in love with...
 
still, i think if i were going to bet it, it's Toledo or nothing... especially since you can be guaranteed to win back your money if you lose it, simply by going against Purdue in week 2 at a cheap price when they travel to Autzen Stadium to play Oregon... if Purdue covers week 1, we all get a freebie going against them in week 2... will be one of the easiest bets of the entire season...
 
otherwise, i don't feel that strongly about it...
 
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Posted: #163
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

haven't looked too deeply at the game... was thinking i might give Toledo  look, but when i broke down the game there was something i wasn't in love with...
 
still, i think if i were going to bet it, it's Toledo or nothing... especially since you can be guaranteed to win back your money if you lose it, simply by going against Purdue in week 2 at a cheap price when they travel to Autzen Stadium to play Oregon... if Purdue covers week 1, we all get a freebie going against them in week 2... will be one of the easiest bets of the entire season...
 
otherwise, i don't feel that strongly about it...

thanks ice for reply on toledo, biggest reason im taking toledo here is that when i capped the game i come up with toledo +3, without any adjustments of lost players from purdue, i clearly can see toledo winning outright here, then you have -12 spread from books "screaming" take purdue here...    toledo is a play for me now.

bol

 
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Posted: #164
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

cburk... always here for advice... don't mind you following my picks, but just always remember it is your money and your choice to make the bets... if you tail someone, take the responsibility for that decision... if i have a bad week i will be pissed off enough for losing the money... don't need anyone else reminding me of it...
 
as JWheels once said... "Never blame when you tail, and never tail to blame!"
 
 
 
pfly... that's a snow leopard, actually... baddest animal on the planet...

 

God damn right

 
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Posted: #165
Ice...never here to bash anyone, win or lose, not my style.  I will be tailing you this year, but that is my choice.  Win or lose, it will be a fun ride.
 
Talk to you later
 
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Posted: #166
Keep up the great work Ice! Enjoy your threads.
 
                   BOL 
 
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Posted: #167
Ice I have a hard time following threads when they get this long. From what i can tell we are on a couple together.
 
 BTW I think you have been strong addition to the college forum.
 
Good luck
 
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by BustinPiles:

Ice I have a hard time following threads when they get this long. From what i can tell we are on a couple together.
 
 BTW I think you have been strong addition to the college forum.
 
Good luck

thanks BP...

i hear ya about the long thread... that's what happens when you post your picks 3 weeks before the games...

you might be in the minority about me being a strong addition... the majority of people aren't interested in bold-face truth when it comes to handicapping...

here's my card, so you don't have to search through the pages for it... still might add Kentucky to it... maybe later tonight...

 
Week 1 CFB Bets:
 
*Penn St (-27)
*Minnesota (-6.5)
*Oklahoma (-21) -120
*Illinois (-6.5) -115
*LSU (-14)
UAB (-4)
Okla St (-6)
Texas (-38)
Stanford (-16.5)
Cal (-21)
 
 
Combo bet: Oregon (+4.5) / Ore ML (+175)
 
 
* - Best Bet
 
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Posted: #169
nice looking card
 
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Posted: #170
Card looking better every day. Don't see a play that I don't like.
 
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Posted: #171
Hey Ice, I gotta couple questions....on your bankroll mgmt strategy, did I understand you to say that even if you double or triple your starting bankroll in the first few weeks of the season, you still keep your unit size to 5% of STARTING bankroll (which would make it the 2.5% of a doubled bankroll, for example), or do you keep full unit wagers to 5% of the current bankroll which, if it has double or tripled, increases the amount of money wagered per game, but not the percentage of bankroll at risk per play?  Please clarify. thx!...
 
gwjtf
 
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Posted: #172
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

Week 1 CFB Bets:

*Penn St (-27)
*Minnesota (-6.5)
*Oklahoma (-21) -120
*Illinois (-6.5) -115
*LSU (-14)
UAB (-4)
Okla St (-6)
Texas (-38)
Stanford (-16.5)
Cal (-21)
 
Combo bet: Oregon (+4.5) / Ore ML (+175)
 
* - Best Bet

BTW, freaking *stellar* card, way to jump on those numbers early....

 
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Posted: #173

hey GW...

this is not just my strategy... this is standard practice for most professional handicappers... and there is a lot of math to back it up...

regardless of your current bankroll, you always keep the same unit amount... so if you start the season with a bankroll of 2000, with a unit amount of 100... then you double up by week 3 to a bankroll of 4000...  your unit amount is still 100...

determine an acceptable unit amount that you are willing to play for the entire year, and stick with it... always consider your unit amount to be a fixed % of your STARTING bankroll... not your current bankroll...

 
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Posted: #174
Ice, when you play a unit is it to place a unit or an amount to win a unit. If your unit is 100 and for example you play Illinois at -115. Do you wager 115 to win 100 (1 unit). Or do you place 100 (1 Unit on the game regardless of line)
 
Please advise   
 
 
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Posted: #175
i play based on the "to win" amount... so it would be 115 to win 100...
 
i know a lot of people do flat wagering, which is where you bet an amount that would collect 200 (e.g. $107 to win $93 = $200 payout, based on $100 unit amount with -115 juice)... but i don't feel it is that important for straight bets in CFB...
 
obviously it is good for sports like hockey or baseball, and also useful for playing MLs... but in the long run, with CFB, laying the juice "to win" your unit amount is simpler, and works out the same, in my experience...
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