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Week 1 CFB

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Posted: #126
the teams i consider to be crap-ass and unbettable:  North Texas (first and foremost), Syracuse (second and secondmost), Idaho (they may actually be not totally crappy this year), West Ky, FIU, ULM...
 
some to keep an eye on (to see how shitty they really are):  Army, NM St, Utah St, Miami-Oh, Wash St, SMU
 
 
UAB just doesn't fit into this category at all... they would pretty much route any of these teams... yea, they are no juggernaut, but they aren't a bottom 10 team... not even bottom 20, in my book... they will be much improved if they can avoid too many injuries...
 
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Posted: #127
Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH:

I never plays parlays or teasers, so I willnot comment on that, except to say that they screw you odds wise.  AS far as your palys are concerned, I am also on Minny, have been on Illinois since the futures came out at the Nugget, and am still looking at Penn State.  One of the reasons I did not jump on Cal is their 1-7 record as Double Diget non-con favorites.
 
I have a question for you.  You said that you do not bet on "crap-ass" teams, yet you took UAB, a team ranked 105 by Lindy's and a team now minus their starting RG and RT.  Why would you not consider UAB a "crap-ass" team?
 
At any rate, GL.

That is simply not true as an absolute.... i would guess that you actually know that.  I do agree ice shouldn't be playing the 5 and six teamers for sure... and i think he knows that too but i think its small slush money.  if you want to play a 5 or 6 its best to find the best payouts and play RR's in 2's or 3's. 

As far as North Texas, yes they are year in year out a crap team.  This play has 4 angles though.  Public perception of NT is terrible, Public percept of ball st. is good, NT will be better, Ball St. will be worse.  17.5 is a lot. 

 
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Posted: #128
Im checking all the line movements right now
 
 
most the ones ive already locked in have gone higher..
 
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Posted: #129
BILL MURRAY IS THE MAN ICE PROB MY FAVORITE COMEDIAN....35/1 IS A NICE NUMBER IF THE 2 DOGS COME THRU SHOULD BE IN REAL GOOD SHAPE....I WAS ON THE FENCE WITH KENTUCKY MYSELF, BUT PULLED THE TRIGGER YESTERDAY AT -15....MIAMI OHIO IS GOING TO BE A MESS THIS YEAR..
 
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Posted: #130
Ice4blood,
 
With your bottom 6 or 8 crap-ass and unbettable teams, do you ever fade them for an entire season ??? BTW, great thread, I've really enjoyed it !!!
 
anna31204 
 
 
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Posted: #131
Gamble... my play on UAB is similar to what you are saying about NT... more than anything it has to do with returning starters, and the fact that there is early value on UAB and against Rice (similar to NT-Ball St)
 
JW... get paid, motha fucka!
 
Bob... Bill Murray is not only a great comedian, but one of my favorite actors, too... Kentucky should be a good bet...
 
Anna... i have never faded a team like that for every single game, but close... it is a good way to go if you can spot early on that a team is in dissaray, much like Wash St last year, or NT and Idaho in many past seasons... really no different than riding a team like Texas or Florida every game... just depends where you want to have your money...
 
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Posted: #132
we need to settle on our 3 teamer soon Ice...
 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

we need to settle on our 3 teamer soon Ice...

Minnesota, Illinois, Oklahoma

 

alternates (in case any of those make you nervous):  LSU, Penn St

 
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Posted: #134
oklahoma -21.5? I would rather that be a straight bet
 
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Posted: #135
stanford, minny, kentucky
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by anna31204:

Ice4blood,
 
With your bottom 6 or 8 crap-ass and unbettable teams, do you ever fade them for an entire season ??? BTW, great thread, I've really enjoyed it !!!
 
anna31204 
 

Here's my thread on what you describe

 
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Posted: #137
sorry:  https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100507467
 
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Posted: #138
im still lookin for that 3 to go big
 
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Posted: #139
Oklahoma is my 2nd favorite pick on the board... Illinois, Oklahoma, Minnesota... there's your 3-teamer, JW!  line doesn't matter... BYU can't hang with OU...
 
if you want another team, do either LSU or Penn St... not sure what more you want...
 
i know you like Kentucky, so you could always sub them in place of Oklahoma...
 
Illinois is a gimme... Minnesota is, too... find a 3rd team and you're golden...
 
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Posted: #140
personally i would never do a 3-teamer without also having all 3 as straight bets... but that's just me...
 
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Posted: #141
0r just bet 10 units on lllinois and Sota in a two teamer.. along with 10 Unit ML bets on each
 
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Posted: #142
10 units for me would be half of my bankroll... i never bet more than 2 units on anything... almost never more than 1 unit...
 
but i do like the Minnesota-Illinois two-teamer...
 
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Posted: #143
I'll be adding Stanford with you, I like that game more and more. It'll be nice sharing thoughts with you this season...wish you the best
 
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Posted: #144
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

10 units for me would be half of my bankroll... i never bet more than 2 units on anything... almost never more than 1 unit...
 
but i do like the Minnesota-Illinois two-teamer...

yea but when u know it will hit, you get that bankroll up by half..

 
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Posted: #145
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:

thanks, but i would advise that you change your early season philosophy...

 

GL!


I have to agree with Ice here. Now is the time to lay the big spreads - teams schedule the easiest games early in the year
 
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Posted: #146
BOL
 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

yea but when u know it will hit, you get that bankroll up by half..

that's cool, JW... but i'd rather not be preaching bad money management habits on my thread... you know how i roll, and i am very strong on money management...

in week 1, i risk my entire bankroll, but i do it by betting equal amounts on every game i play... 1 unit on a parlay is the most i would ever consider, and i feel very strongly that this is the way to go... even my best bets do not get any more of a play than the rest of my bets... this is a tried and true method...

 

amd... glad to see you on Stanford... i'll be watching your plays, as well...

 
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Posted: #148
thanks for the heads up on stanford i will be on them as well
 
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Posted: #149
With Zook, Illinois is NEVER a gimee. As a gator fan I endured 3 years of his ineptitudr as a coach. Meyer came in and in 2 years took Zook's players to a BCS championship
 
Most cappers are on Illinois so I will lay off the game, but even though Mizzou lost Daniels and Macklin, I feel they will find a way to cover in STL
 
I call it the Zook factor
 
 
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Posted: #150
No matter what, we will be + money bud... so no worries
 
 
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