Harness Racing Ontario - Mohawk specialty + other B tracks occasionally

The Pick3 just paid $73 to #3 so the Pick4 has to be a minimum $100 each horse

#2 - paid $504 for a $1 Pick4

Good night so far....up about $480

Hitting some big Doubles on the next race..

Going to look at which horse looks best between #1 and #8 .....will do smaller on 3467 also with Combs Hanover #4 in the 9th race....took a week off and it will come back and shit on this field with its closing half in a 6 horse field

Got a $25 double alive that pays $20 to #4 in the 9th race....would return $250 (spent about $90)

Winds from the SW tonight at around the same speed as last night 7-10 mph.....not strong.

Horses coming first over will get a push.....front speed should be good if strategic and 2nd/3rd over will need fast fractions likely

Very fast track tonight...

Race 1 - agree with Horse program that #6 with a first time great driver and finishing impressive miles will be primed to shave 2 seconds or much more tonight and the horse is undefeated. I do not think its a strong KEY  though...

Ticket also needs > 23 and 8 who I think is gonna be pushed to see what it can do tonight on the engine from outside...so I like 68 best because they are seasoned the most in races ...who knows how good #2 is but I would say not ready to win on first asking but its happened before with this combo....#3 also needs to show something tonight to be believed as a contender but well bred and good connections

Race #2 - tricky race but I think when you think about how the race will unfold and look at past fractions, you see that #3 should be there at the end but could be challenged by #2 first time for Moreau and with a good driver...note the impressive race using a shitty owner/trainer and imagine now Sylvain + Moreau first time getting it ready....that is my upset.

I think #4 Silent Crossing is going to the front with #3 grabbing the 2-hole and then going to the lead near the half unless Filion forces Trevors hand early.....and that opens up either #2 winning or #1 ....but if you look at #1, the horse looks great in qualis but put pressure on it, it cannot convert on the big track and so it will have to come 2nd or 3rd over and do not believe the horse has enough as #3 down the lane, especially if you look at their last race together. 

I am going with #3 and #2 in this race ....but will do an ALL/ALL play somewhere if I can find a great key in the coming races....

Race 3 - no clear standout and don't fall in love with the Luc Blais horse #4 too much as this is one of 3 or 4 that even he cannot turn around to win with McClure...use a bunch in this race...

My view of form and driving style/post position....#2 is a great trot trainer and is ready to roll after two outside posts and a good driver ....JMAC on #8 is gonna leave know its speed that will win this race and #7 will not likely leave so he is better to get on the engine and trip out down the lane like he can 

Horses who I think do not have a shot:

#10 - can't leave

#9 - nice horse but Roger Mayonnaise is always patient with his young horses because like Princesspartypants, he would rather have them competitive from 4 yrs and older than burning a 3yr old with talent from outside posts

#6 - does not know how to finish down the lane - fades despite good drivers

#5 - rock hands Doug Hie but he can mess up this race too with his weird driving tactics...likes to bet also

#3 - has to show something and hasn't with good post positions

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Add to your ticket #1 , 2, 4, 7 , 8

Race 3 - no clear standout and don't fall in love with the Luc Blais horse #4 too much as this is one of 3 or 4 that even he cannot turn around to win with McClure...use a bunch in this race...

My view of form and driving style/post position....#2 is a great trot trainer and is ready to roll after two outside posts and a good driver ....JMAC on #8 is gonna leave know its speed that will win this race and #7 will not likely leave so he is better to get on the engine and trip out down the lane like he can 

Horses who I think do not have a shot:

#10 - can't leave

#9 - nice horse but Roger Mayonnaise is always patient with his young horses because like Princesspartypants, he would rather have them competitive from 4 yrs and older than burning a 3yr old with talent from outside posts

#6 - does not know how to finish down the lane - fades despite good drivers

#5 - rock hands Doug Hie but he can mess up this race too with his weird driving tactics...likes to bet also

#3 - has to show something and hasn't with good post positions

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Add to your ticket #1 , 2, 4, 7 , 8

Race 4 - I do not buy the fact that #2 should be a key as its shipping a long way and rarely do first time Maritime horses win after they have shipped here....

Like #1 and #5 confidently....

LONGSHOT > 347

Race 5 - only think you need #7 or #8 but if JMAC or DRURY land on #3....maybe it surprises and #9 has McNair and this horse is an Alagna horse...one of these times it will take to the training and romp...#6 is a superlong shot suggestion

Update on driver/equipment changes....RACE #1 - Moore is letting hopples out on #8 so I think you just need 2-3 horses now ...

Race #5 - Scratch > 2  and 10....driver changes later for #3 and #4...JMAC and DRURY are part of the two scratches so likely both of them will be picked up to drive either 3 and 4....consider that when capping

My tickets:

Pick5   60c > 68 / 23 / 2478 / 125 / 78 = $57.60

          40c > 2 / 23 / 2478 / 125 / 78= $19.20

          20 c > 3457 / 3 / 2478 / 12 / 78 = $12.80

          20 c > 68 / 23 / 19 / 12 / 78 = $9.60

Pick5   20c  > 68 / ALL (except 23) / 278 / 12 / 78 = $19.20

Chasing a little I know ... good luck

#8 looks amazing and went right to the front ....in race 1

#6 won fairly easily coming 1st over on the last turn....as I mentioned the wind would assist horses that way tonight...2nd and 3rd over did look live but this horse was gone! #8 faded to 5th even with the hopples adjustment

Race 2 > #2 won easily!! 8-1 in the book and went off at 4-1....this will make the PICK5 pay ...lots just keyed the #3 or took #1

Something weird just happened...they refunded the #3 so lots get #1 as a refund horse but he broke so #2 bust a lot of tickets I bet

Can't watch races...video feed messed up...shit

#7 won race 3...fave

#2 won easy race 4 ....overwhelming fave so this Pick5 is tiny

Thursday > South wind provides push on last turn for 1st over/2nd/ 3rd over or horses that try to wire the field from the half...it tires front end horses into the first turn   

6-10 mph S wind

BABY races so if a Trot race, take all the best drivers regardless of times because they hide qualifier fractions and improve a lot from last race....I have learned this lesson too many times. If 2 yr pacers, look at last quarter fractions and include fastest horses

I see a great KEY under no threat tonight if the horse races anywhere near last week....its in RACE 4. I just watched it again and noticed #2  Great Dane was blocked from coming out until too late in last week's very competitive race. Its not nearly as competitive tonight and the horse will not be pressured to get the lead too much. I don't put faith in a closer beating this horse on the engine

Race 5 - need to take 4-6 horses here..... its risky, but I think you can throw #10 out or leave it in since not everyone will keep it in their Pick5 play since tickets get pretty big and 10-holes rarely win unless the horse leaves and this one does not

Really like: 378

Have to put in? :  JMAC on #6 based on its win/placing % last year  and maybe #10

Longshot:  #1 with Mario driving and #2 with Luc Roy but this horse has won 1 race in 2 yrs

OK...capping the Baby races for first 3 legs of Pick5:

Race 1 - as much as I would like to take more horses in this one to try for an upset, its going to be hard to beat #1 with Sylvain and #3 with J-MAC especially.....and then, given the fact #6 was in a gold final, you have to put the horse in as well as now finally, the horse has a nice position off the gate and Jodi will send this horse for sure 

Maybes go to:  2457

Race 2 - #3,6 and #4 stand out 

Maybes:  5

Race 3 - #1 has to leave the class if it wins or finishes 2nd .....I think #9 has the resume with 2 Gold finals to take it down and will likely head to the front while #1 is buried

-#10 and #4 have merit 

-if a barn race, #2 and #3 have pedigree and good drivers

I am likely doing the following:

60 cent  Pick5 > 136 / 346 / 19 / 2 /3678 = $43.10

20 cent > 13 / 5 / 14910 / 2 /3678 = $10.80

20 cent > 13 / 3465 / 410/ 2 /3678 = $12.80

20 cent > 136 / 346 / 19 / 2 / 1210 = $10.80

20 cent > 24 / 46 / 19 / 2 / 3678 = $6.40

We are on pace for a decent payout....even if #2 loses next race....

Race #1 > 3 won at 5 - 1

Race #2 > 5 won at 18-1

Race #3 > 1 won at below even money...romped as it had to leave the class

#2 won Race 4

#3 PAYS = $4,485

#7 PAYS = $701

#8 PAYS = $1118

#10 PAYS = $652

#7 FOR $652!

#7 actually paid $701 !!

Didn't take much tonight....got Pick4's alive too

Friday Night Details for Mohawk:

- first 2 races are 2 yr olds...take best drivers for sure 

-3 other races are full fields and Fillies and Mares so upsets happen and sometimes they take turns

-SW wind a little stronger than the other night....1st and 2nd over had a chance to win but so did a well rated leaver in the first quarter

Big ticket tonight!!  Lots of possibilities including maybe ALL in last leg...

Race 1 - strong lean to keying #6 - Coleman horse and now back on schedule after missing 2 weeks... love first time #2 with Filion and the big kick so I might just take those 2 ..........

-maybe #5 but this horse is disappointing and off now 2 weeks

-#1 is a longshot but could put it together

Race 2 - it is hard to gauge who will win this so I think you take 4-6 horses

-234 for sure

-5 and even #8 with the monster kick if there is a speed battle and Cullen is good in those situations coming down the lane

Race 3 - 2378 really stand out with driver changes, dropping down and speed which is necessary in this class

-if you want to cut back....37 would be my selections

Race 4 - 136 all standout and maybe even taking #6 as a KEY ....but 45789 could have a surpriser in there

Race 5 - my gut on this race is ALL as the times are all close...and droppers are on the outside which means they will force fast fractions and when that happens, horses sneak up the rail or down the middle in surprises at long odds

-if you want to cut back, go with 4910 ...I think #4 and #9 will battle for lead and if McNair is smart of Filion, they will take 2-hole or 4 hole somewhere and then come first over! I think 10 will move for position in top 5

Race Update:

Race #1 - #5 opens overwhelming fave but #2 and #6 have good equipment changes

Race #4 - #4 has a good equipment change so I am throwing that horse in now

Race #5 - #9 is scratched and is a fast blazing horse so now I will only take 4 and 10 to win on one ticket  and maybe #1,5, 6, 7  on another