Harness Racing Ontario - Mohawk specialty + other B tracks occasionally

#6 just barely beat #2 with Sylvain who was going off at 8 - 1.....ooohhhh...that was close.

I have 2 large tickets and #6 is on both of them....one of them has #6 keyed with a bunch of upset and favourite horses

I am going for a nice big payout because Friday night is 50-50 night for my wife...all profits, she gets HALF!! And we make it an event with wine and hor d'oerves

Race 2 - 2nd race Galluci horse won fairly easy although #4 was coming and #5 paced evenly....#3 was not a factor and took most of the money!

#7 won race 3 and I almost got #8 at 11-1....that would make it pay 

Saturday Night weather...... maybe  a brief thundershower expected at the start and if this happens, it will actually help the track to become even faster if the rest of the expected evening is dry as expected. 

Winds will be light from N or NE ...around 5-7 mph....no factor so any style of racing can win

Small fields expected but I look forward to Race 8's 12 horse OSS GOLD race for $160K and featuring all the best Ontario 3 yr olds...its gonna be a humdinger!

Handicapping the whole card....some very good late races that are intriguing

Who is Hot the last 10 days:

Moreau/ Galluci / Beaton

Not > Baillergeron and Auciello is ice cold....but has a lot of close horses tonight...might lay off all of them if they are not obviously the best in the field

Very very competitive card so the capping took a while....I will have one Auciello horse keyed I think

Race #4 - UndertheSun dropping down from 9 - hole and can leave....has equipment change to blind bridle....taking only one other horse but will key it with Wawaree Vital not winning the 5th race on a 2nd ticket

Race 3 - equipment change to #8 ...it was going in my play anyway

Race 1 - loved Marloe Hanover already dropping down and first time Jodi but now it also has an equipment change

The Plays:

$1 > 23457 / 57 / 28 / 39 / 8 = $40

20 cent > 2357 / 57 / 248910 / 3689 / 8 = $32

20 cent > 23457 / All except #3 / 2810 / 9 / 1248 = $72  > this is the upset play and 2nd play on #8 if it wins with Underthesouthrnsun in race 4

BOL.....WILL HAVE A PICK5 play ready as well later 

Race 1 > 5 won

Race 2 > 4 won @ 43-1 and that is why I am putting in all in 2nd races like the other night.....I also have a Pick3 open here to 4 horses in the next race

Pick3 payouts are very nice!....alive to 1247810

I just looked...yikes....I don't have #4 in my ALL ticket...and they are making the horse favourite here just before post...I am putting $60 to win on this horse since the Pick3 payout is only $67 which is by far the smallest

#4 was nowhere!! Blake Mac horses are shit lately....that they can't finish or get to the front anymore

#2 wins...I am still alive in the pick5 but have #9 naked in the next race so I will play the following Pick4:

40 cent > 3689 / 1248 / 125 / 248 = $28.80

80 cent > 3689 / 8 / 125 / ALL (8) = $75+

Pick3 paid $114 in race 3....that helps

Now they bring a 37-1 winner in #4....bullshit racing

Got the last Super and HI5 to bring some decent cash but other than that, it was a sideways night trying to make cash....

I look forward to Monday's card. Its going to be super hot and when that happens, its mostly morning line top 4 horses win which I expect it might be the time this week to apply that method in my selections. I think the longshots were an anomaly 

Monday Weather for tonight:

-very hot and going to be 28 C ...I checked in the past 2 months which days were this hot or higher and going to see comparatively what the horses did from what position and odds...there were  3 days to compare. I will report my findings shortly

-wind from the South at 10-13 mph gust so it favours horses that like to move at the half or last turn between 3rd Q pole before straight away...they will get a push from this wind and so will FIRST OVER be effective in fast fractions potentially...stress out the leader 

Tonight is the night to test the Under 5-1 morning line play because here is what I found out from viewing results from the first 5 races of 3 hot days for the Pick5:

Race winners in first 5 races based on post position:

#1 = 2x

#2 = 5x

#3 = 0x

#4 = 3x

#5 = 1x

#6 = 1x

#7 = 3x

#8 to#10 hole = ZERO WINS!

Odds winners: (morning line in program)

5-2 or lower = 2x

3-1  = 3x

7-2 = 3x

4-1 = 3x 

9-2 = 4x

5 -1 to 8 -1 = ZERO WINS

10 -1 to 15 - 1 = ZERO WINS

if you played a $1 exactor  with the 4 lowest morning line x 7 to 8  lowest morning lines up to and including 10-1 or lower, this is what the total payout would be for the 15 races: (costing you $24 -28 each time)

loss = 1x

14 / 15 wins = $809.15 - COST (approx. $400) = $400+ profit

Conclusion: In race fields of 9 or 10 races, I will be playing this exactor every time and also going for a hedge exactor of $8 as well on 2 of the 6-1/8-1 or 10-1 horses if I think they are live and they will go on top with the 4 morning lines to protect my Pick5 but also gain an outlier exactor perhaps

Exactors played:

Race #3 - did not take #9 to win since its an outside post  3x / 7x horses = $18

-avoiding Race #4 because I think #9 can win with Sylvain and Moreau

Race #5 - 4x / 7x ... left out #10 because it broke, its far outside and has a new driver = $24

Pick5 is next....

Pick5 

357 / 4 / 2 should be a KEY but add 7... and(add 3 longshots 4,5,8) / 2569 / 12511 = $48 

357 / 25 / 2 / 2569 /12511 = $19.20

GOOD LUCK

So far....

5 / 2 / 7 have come in....capped them but don't have that combo and did not get the exactor because 15-1 #1 horse squeaked ahead of #9

Got nothing....man, it paid well for not have too many longshots or mid faves. I hit a couple of exactors thats about it. I played the late Pick5 and Pick3 Key with Grandma Heidi beating MEMO and it just happened at 6-1

Been on Grandma for a while ...it needs a suck along rail win and it got it

Tuesday night Weather and Affect on horses:

- maybe a slight shower at the start of the program but the rest of the evening dry

-track should be fast

-wind from SW at 10-18 mph gusts early in the card and then reducing to 8 -14 mph gusts by 9 pm

SW wind means horses who leave and fight for the 1 Q lead will have to do so into the wind on the corner....1st over moves to the front will happen before the half and those live horses should have enough to take them home

-1st over will be good tonight and 2nd over .......3rd and 4th over will have trouble closing down the lane I figure

-I think outside posts will have trouble too since they have to use a lot of energy getting to the front

Race 5 - I do not see any merit with #1- 4 ..... although #4 has merit to put in a superfecta for 3rd and 4th wheel.....it is the fastest horse in the first quarter and will likely cause #9 and #10 to be stretched

-#5 Sea Laird is scratched

-#6 and #7 will MAYBE be dropped into the Pick5 but if its too expensive, I might leave out.

- in for sure > 8910

-for sure I will play triactor 8910 / 67 /ALL... and superfectas  > 8910/8910/ 467/ ALL and  8910 /58910/ALL/ 467

....I see tremendous value in wheeling those horses who have good post positions and 2 of the 3 are first time claimers!

Race 4 - interesting Trot race

-#1 has to go in at 6-1 morning line odds since its Luc Blais. I might key this horse ....mulling it as its an OSS race and the last two races were NW1 so they might have been farting around

-#2 breaks...leaving it out although good times

-#3 is coming along and back to JMAC who might wake this horse after outside posts and Steacy trained

-#4 is intriguing...needs a trip 

-#5 breaks and needs a trip > OUT

-#6 KEY material for sure!

-#8 can win if  # 6 breaks but cannot close on either in my opinion, although, the horse should be even better tonight since it had not raced in over 20 days when it won last week!!!

GOING WITH #1 AND #8 ......if not too expensive, I will throw in #1 on a hunch that BLAIS put some training mojo into this horse

Race 3 - plug your nose and take the best drivers and trainers ....unless a horse breaks every time like #3

-taking maybe > 12456910

- best position/pedigree etc = 25 ...but both of them have broke before....the 10 horse with Luc Blais is a $225K yearling and has already won so these 3 horses might be the way to go!....and throwing in #6 for sentimental reasons in the name and the fact this horse did a 1.59 at GRAND RIVER! Do I leave out a wellbred horse in #9 off a qualifer and Sylvain and Ben. B?

Race 2 - #3 and #5 have equipment changes

- taking 234 for sure.....mulling adding #5 ? (8-1 morning line)

-if you want to take a key horse, that would be the Nancy Takter trained #3 who did 155'3 first time on the track and it came home in 26'3 in its first race almost winning ...#4 won at that closing speed but I really think the # might go to the front and say SEE YA to collect the $79K cheque for the final

Race 1 - take your pick with 234678? No idea 

BOL....I will play one ticket taking all 6 with #3 in race 2 and one ticket taking only 2478 with 2345 in race 2