Last2Thirst Season Thread - Totals + some ATS

Happy to have baseball back as the NCAAB and NBA seasons unwind.....

My focus on picks revolve around analytics. Until I get a handle on trends, pitcher and team hitting rhythms, I will only post a play sporadically, but I am more than willing to share my observations to help you. Compiling analytics are enjoyable for me and govern my angles, but every once in a while, I will do a hunch bet. 

While I compile my analytics. I am diving into last season and the season before based on 2 things to look for:

-Streak patterns > effect on totals and how they end 

-strong pitchers with low eras when facing weak teams or low totals

I feel I can find a pattern in one of these angles that could provide a nice situation during this season from time to time.

BETTING: - for baseball, I only allocate $2500 and find a TRIPLE UP approach works well

               - standard Unit = $50 (I use -115 as average juice when calculating profit)

               - Triple Up sequence > Half U ($25) on play #1 > lose declare Play #2 or $50, declare Play #3 for $100

SEASON PATTERN SO FAR:

- 3 day pattern of totals is a bit of a surprise:   OVERS = 26 - 11 - 2 

 Cheers and good luck this season 

Thanks Seymour, U2 

5 DAY TOTAL TREND (start of season)

- yesterday was back on OVER trend big time....

- day 4 was EVEN

OVERALL NOW:

OVERS =  42 - 21 - 5  = 66.7%

Have begun charting extreme good and bad starter results for pitching.....and follow up 3 day and 5 day trend

-let's see if there is something interesting comes out of it

-NCAAB Tourney paid off for me with a 9 - 3 ATS/Total record and laying bigger bets

(my experience is, analytics pays off)

Been a while ......just watching what unfolds on the sidelines....nothing I say is useful until a trend emerges. No point in pulling money out until I believe I have an advantage. Since I have switched to patience and analytics, making money in 4 -5  out of 5 sports seasons in a year  (NCAAF, NFL, NHL, NBA, NCAAB and MLB) <<< I am in the camp that NFL is scripted somewhat like WWE 

25 Gamedays of MLB completed: - toss away 2 days that did not have more than 5 games for data

First 10 Days = 5 days of OVERS, 4 even result days and 1 day of UNDERS

Next 15 Days = 4 days of OVERS, **2 even result days and 7 days of UNDERS 

Clearly, we are in a shift from pitchers being behind in the beginning to NOW dominating and I expect this trend to continue until MID -JUNE where heat of the ground and water absorbing enough energy to reduce high wind days....to start shifting many totals to OVER except on days maybe were the air becomes cooler and that day, you might change your approach for one day

Track the weather, track the ump records and look for the quadfecta of (1) low humidity < 40%  (2) low temp  (3) N, NW or W wind direction at 15 mph+  (4) low WHIP/ERA ump  and I am working on 5th factor of HIGH OVER teams in consecutive games (3 games in a row) facing a team that trends UNDER .....if the situation turns out to be over 60% favourable to play UNDER....that will be my 5th factor 

Likely will not play OVER until Mid- June unless my tracking system picks up a trend

Will update the consecutive OVERS vs a usual UNDER team once I have data checked out + confirmation of at least 4-5 instances this year 

Ok, after the first 25 Games up to yesterday, I definitely have 3 TRENDS to play until Mid-JUNE!

Trend #1 - highest % = 10 - 3  American League

                                   = 5 - 3  National League

Overall = 71.4 % hit rate

TREND = when a team has been UNDER 4x in a row with no pushes, 5th game trends OVER

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Trend #2 - use only with American League teams = 27 - 13 Overall hit rate = 67.5%

Trend = when a team goes OVER 2x in a row with no pushes, the 3rd game goes UNDER

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Trend #3 - use only with National League teams = high success rate over 55% 

Trend = in the National League, after a streak of 2 games OVER, there a many teams ( > 50% of teams that do this) that go onto producing an OVER in the 3rd, 4th and sometimes 5th/6th game  <<< stay with the National League OVER streak after 2 OVERS in a row with no pushes  

Today:

> LAD (3rd Over) and their opponent NYM (4th OVER)

> SF/ARIZ ....playing for 3rd over in a row (looks like a NO)

> CWS/PHIL (3rd OVER for Phillies)

----------------------------------------------------

Balt/KC > 2 OVERS > today UNDER successfully

TRENDS APPLIED TODAY SO FAR = 3 - 1 winners

.... AND the one that is losing right now is rallying to go OVER in the 9th inning!

Recommendations to consider MONDAY, APRIL 22:

Total Trend #3

> trend on Phillies who have had 2x OVERS the last two games (would wait to see who the umps are and weather) ....looking at the pitching matchup, I rate this a 5.5/10 for strength given the fact that the Phillies have gone UNDER 13x already and including a 10 game UNDER streak already (will update the strength tomorrow after some further inspection)

> trend on Mets who have 4 consecutive OVERS .....looking at the matchup, Quintana has faced SF for 37 ABs and has given up 2 HR/7 RBI and an OBP of .300

> SF has produced 13 OVERS out of 23 games so far, the METS have 12 OVERS of 21 games

> Keaton Winn has never faced the Mets and is a 4.00+ era pitcher / SF has the 2nd worst bullpen in the NL so far....Mets is good....

> Mets hit .289 on the road and only .222 at home 

> SF hits .244 at home and .259 vs lefties

LEAN STRONGLY to METS -1.5 here and OVER as a secondary bet rated 6.0 out of 10

Total Trend #2 

> CWS have gone over 2 games in a row, so chances are their next game is an UNDER 

> Cannon had a good first out, Paddock roughed up last game but trends better at home

> 5.8 / 10 rating for success > will update if significantly better after some further inspection tomorrow but can see that Paddack has thrown 26 ABs at CWS with only 1 RBI/No HRs and an OBP of .269 only

> OVER went 2 - 1 last year in their matchups

By the way, you are welcome to try these trends and my recommendations.....I will only play my TRENDS till mid - June and then track stat trends and look for another .....

Only one game I would make plays for on Monday and that is METS ML for sure 1.5 U......  or METS HALF U  -1.5  with a HALF U over

Will only play my TREND totals when I feel it is 65% strength or greater....otherwise, only observing this trend to see how it plays out

3 PLAYS TOMORROW to track: - Simulation Results only

RISKY x 1 play Sim. (5.0- 5.6 rating)

DECENT x 2 plays Sim. (5.7 - 6.3 rating)

GOOD  x 0 plays (over 6.3 - 6.9 rating)

EXCELLENT x 0 plays ( 7.0 rating or higher )

Other Bets:

ML x 1 play (BET - COUNTS 1.5 U) 

RL x 1 play  (Sim.)

Simulation + Real Bet Results: - after Day 1

Risky Trend Plays:

Trend #1 = 0 - 0 

Trend #2 = 0 - 0 

Trend #3 = 0 - 1

Decent Trend Plays: 

Trend #1 = 0 - 0 

Trend #2 = 1 - 1

Trend #3 = 0 - 0 

Personal (Real) Plays:  Side 0 - 1 (-1.5 ATS) Mets lost 5 - 2

Recommendations to consider TUESDAY, APRIL 23:

Trend #3  - LAD on a streak of 3 OVERS going for a 4th in a row vs a Nationals team that has had 4 UNDERS + 1 Push in the last 5 games

> James Paxton of LAD with command issues in the last game (8 walks) 

> Nationals have had 26 ABs vs him and only produced 1 RBI and no HRs

> Nationals not hitting well at home and vs lefties this year, only .202

> if Paxton has control issues, LAD bullpen is middling to poor 

> Patrick Corbin with a high ERA but only lost 6 - 2 his first meeting in Los Angeles last week

10 RUN TOTAL seems high.....might play this one personally if 8.5 total

MIGHT CONSIDER A PERSONAL PLAY .... LAD -1.5 runline but will confirm tomorrow

Rate this as RISKY = 5.2 - 5.5 and ok to simulate the Dodgers getting their 4th OVER in a row...but low  rating based on Nationals anemic hitting and especially vs lefties

Trend #2 Play - Detroit at TB who is on a 2 DAY OVER run and should dial in an UNDER in their 3rd game after 2 consecutive OVERS

> Kenta Maeda has only given up 3 hits in 18 ABs vs this TB lineup / O HRs and O RBIs

> TB hits weaker at home and vs righties slightly more than lefties

> matchups in their last 10 games show a total of 8 going: OVER 3 x / 3 PUSHES / 4 UNDERS 

> Tigers hit for a quite low average on the road and vs righties

> Tigers have hit only 1 HR/1 RBI off of Pepiot but a low BA of .159

DECENT to GOOD rating on this one with a rating higher than 6.0 out of 10 but will try to get umpire info tomorrow

Despite 15 games on the Tuesday card, these are the only two that fit in my 3 trends to play off or simulate their results from now till the middle of June before the heat and wind speeds normalize conditions to cause changes to trends

2 Simulation Trends and potentially 1 SIDE personally to bet but want to dig on a couple more things tomorrow > side bet I like is on LAD runline

Personal Sides/Total Bets:

Baltimore runline -1.5 +105 x 1U .... Canning having a mediocre start to the year and Orioles hit him for a .356 avg lifetime

-you cannot slow these Oriole hitters!

LAD runline -1.5  -130 parlay with Blue Jays +1.5 -250 pays over +100 x 1U

> considered taking Jays Under 8.5 and that total moving down with sinking wind to right field blowing fairly hard with low humidity

> Jays are on a big roll....if they lose, it tends to be late innings and only by 1 run while on this roll.....GAUSMAN has figured it out after a wonky few starts and that happened last year once and then he rattled off a bunch of consecutive wins

> I am confident with the weather being dry and a knock down sinking wind, Paxton will throw high fast balls that lead to fly balls or popups and that is when he is at his best > going after hitters....especially after throwing so cute in his last start and allowing 8 walks

> pitching will tell him greenlight to be aggressive in the top of the strike zone with the conditions and light hitting Nationals

GL today 

@Fuse

Thanks Fuse! 

Brooklyncapper the other day, thank you 

Potential Plays I am watching for tomorrow:

Pittsburgh on watch >> 4th UNDER in a row  

> then we go for TREND #1 which is the strongest  (10-3 so far > 4 UNDERS in a row, 5th game goes OVER)

Detroit goes OVER? >> TREND #2 would be activated  (with TB going UNDER tonight.....one gets completed by them)

Chic Cubs go OVER? >> TREND #3 would be a consideration for the next game 

Sea + Texas go OVER, then >>> we have a strong TREND #2 and the first example where both teams are on the trend ....so if it goes OVER, tomorrow's game should be an UNDER

Simulation + Real Bet Results: - after Day 2

 Risky Trend Plays:

Trend #1 = 0 - 0 

Trend #2 = 0 - 0 

Trend #3 = 0 - 2

Decent Trend Plays: 

Trend #1 = 0 - 0 

Trend #2 = 2 - 1

Trend #3 = 0 - 0 

Personal (Real) Plays:  Side 0 - 2 (-2.5 ATS)  Baltimore game not over but booking a loss here

                                      Parlay 1 - 0  (+1.1 U)

Recommendations to consider TUESDAY, APRIL 23:

-Trend #1 in PLAY tomorrow: 

PITT/MILW OVER  ... no total yet

.....no other trends came to fruition but looking for a SIDE potentially...

Pitt game TOTAL set at OVER 9 

-humidity is in our favour

-temperature is cool but winds blowing at 11 mph out to centerfield so I don't feel its a knockdown wind ....the ball could carry to the fences and not die halfway there from wind sink

- Bryse Wilson for Milw pitching well out of the bullpen but the Brewers lineup hit him for .300 over 40 ABs with 3 HR/4 RBIs and an OBP of .317

-MILW bullpen ranks around 8th in baseball right now and if he is the long guy.....who replaces him (likely inferior) when he gets hit?

FOR PITT..... 

-Josh Fleming is also a bullpen guy with decent numbers 

- Pitt is 22nd best bullpen

- in 8 ABs, Brewers have hit Fleming for 1 HR and 3 RBIs and an inflated .300+ era

1U over on strong #1 TREND PLAY  OVER 9

HALF U on Brewers with better bullpen

......if the conditions were warmer, I might consider placing a 2U bet with the trend hitting 10-3 since the start of the season

UPDATE: I got OVER 8.5 when I played it 

Will be on the OVER in PITT vs Brewers coming up at 12:30 pm

x 1U OVER 6.5 -125

x 1U Milwaukee ML runline +130

- Mitch Keller vs Brewers: 

TOTALS 44 (ABs) 17 5 1 4 (HR)15 (RBIs) 4 8 .386 (BA) .438 (OBP)

- Freddy Peralta vs Pitt lineup:

70 ABs

3 HRs

9 RBIS

.300 BA/ .364 OBP

This year......... 

2024 SEASON STATS
W-L
2-0
ERA
1.90
K
33
WHIP
0.76

Will do some simulation trend analysis later and update of stats over 3 nights now.... there might be some more plays to consider. I had a very busy evening last night and up late.

4 runs in the 1st Inning and Freddie P with stellar numbers being treated like a pinata 

Some results yesterday and Today so far:

Simulation + Real Bet Results: - after Day 2

Risky Trend Plays:

Trend #1 = 0 - 0 

Trend #2 = 0 - 0 

Trend #3 = 0 - 2

Decent Trend Plays: 

Trend #1 = 0 - 0 

Trend #2 = 2 - 1

Trend #3 = 0 - 0 

Good Trend Plays:

Trend #1 = 0 - 1

...........not playing every simulation yet, but recording record for now(I mention when I do **see below)

Personal (Real) Plays:  Side/Totals 3 - 3 (-1.0 Units)   Lost HALF U - Wednesday/ gained 2 U's Thursday so far

                                      Parlay 1 - 0  (+1.1 U)

Wed 

1U over on strong #1 TREND PLAY  OVER 8.5 

HALF U on Brewers with better bullpen   

THURS (today so far)

x 1U OVER 6.5 -125   

x 1U Milwaukee ML runline +130  

Trend Plays to consider for Friday:

Trend #1 - JAYS on a 4 UNDERS in a row streak facing the DODGERs in a ballpark that is known to have some good OVERS ...Jays do well vs the NATIONAL league and will love having an A-list team at home with their rabid fans 

-OVER 9  rated RISKY with that total and Jays bats hot and cold so only counting as a simulation

- CUBS on watch with 3 UNDERS in a row

- Atlanta on watch with 3 UNDERS in a row

-Texas on watch with 3 UNDERS in a row

-Seattle on watch with 3 UNDERS in a row

Trend #2 -

- Baltimore with 2 Wins in a row - next game should by UNDER 

- Orioles hit Stripling well so x1 U for UNDER + Balt runline -125 ... rate this play 5.5 / 10 (RISKY) as A's hit .147 vs Burnes and he has a WHIP of 0.92 vs a light hitting lineup ...line is RISKY due to lower total of 7.5 runs

Trend #3 - no National League teams on this trend today

Simulation + Real Bet Results: - after Day 2

Risky Trend Plays:

Trend #1 = 1 - 0 

Trend #2 = 1 - 0 

Trend #3 = 0 - 2

Decent Trend Plays: 

Trend #1 = 0 - 0 

Trend #2 = 2 - 1

Trend #3 = 0 - 0 

Good Trend Plays:

Trend #1 = 0 - 1

...........not playing every simulation yet, but recording record for now(I mention when I do **see below)

Personal (Real) Plays:  Side/Totals 4 - 3 (EVEN Units)   Won Oakland/Baltimore UNDER 7.5

                                      Parlay 1 - 0  (+1.1 U)

Looking now at TRENDS for tomorrow ...

Trend Plays today:

Trend #1: 

1. Atlanta with a 4 UNDER in a row, which means they likely go OVER on the 5th game

2. Texas with a 4 UNDER in a row, which means they likely go OVER on the 5th game

3. Miami with a 4 UNDER in a row, which means they likely go OVER on the 5th game

4. Seattle with a 4 UNDER in a row, which means they likely go OVER on the 5th game

Trend #2:

1. Boston with 2 OVERS as an American league, trend demonstrates the 3rd game tends to go UNDER

2. Double American league teams with 2 OVER games, it should go UNDER tomorrow > TB with CWS

Trend #3: 

1. Milwaukee with 2 OVERS in a row, game three tends to be an OVER again is a National League team

2. San Diego with 2 OVERS in a row, game three tends to be an OVER again is a National League team

Eight potential trend plays in one day is the most yet......... after next weekend, chances are, I will be acting on most plays if the trend proves itself to be worthy to continued based on the day I collected from the end of March to April 20th approximately...

Trend #1  success rate = 10 - 3

Trend #2 - many instances = 67.5% success

Trend #3 - quite  a few instances = 60-61% success rate

Looking now through which ones are the best for me to play, and therefore rating each out of 10 as RISKY, DECENT, GOOD or EXCELLENT