Last2Thirst Season Thread - Totals + some ATS

Sunday Trend #2 Options: - will discuss and rate this tomorrow to go UNDER 

Toronto @  Washington

Only one game on the Trend today and I DO NOT LIKE IT!

Bringing up Alek Manoah for the Jays from Triple A because he pitched 6 innings of 1 hitter after numerous rehab games last season and this year is frankly, a roll of the dice and MacKenzie Gore handled the Jays well in his last start

Play WASHINGTON NATIONALS ML instead x 1U -105 .... if you go with the trend to go UNDER, its  RISKY in my opinion. although you have an UNDER umpire who has a 2.9 era avg for his games and therefore might help Manoah who can be a charmer with the umpires......good guy and chatty/laughs/funny with them so might get some calls

Play WASHINGTON NATIONALS ML instead x 1U -105  

Season Personal (Real) Plays:  Side/Totals 11 - 7  (EVEN Units)   

                                                  Parlay 1 - 0  (+1.1 U)

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Monday TREND Plays:

-Both SF and Philadelphia with 2 OVERS in a row ... so consider an UNDER next game

-Both SD and Arizona with 2 OVERS in a row ....

-Both Miami and Oakland with 2 OVERS in a row ....

-both Washington and Toronto.... broke the trend and now have 3 OVERS in a row....will research that angle next but going to wait...I don't continue to look for an UNDER next when a trend breaks because then its just guessing and that is not why I produce this thread >> to guess haha

-both NYY and Detroit with 2 OVERS in a row.... 

Will breakdown these potential games into RISKY, DECENT and GOOD plays with the trend and my picks

SF-PHILLY UNDER 7.5 - rated DECENT ...was a good play but not rated GOOD only due to a rookie on the mound...Wheeler on the mound made this very attractive

SD-CUBS UNDER 7.5 - rated GOOD

-Darvish does not get hit well by Cubs lineup

-Cubs are considerably weaker hitters vs righties - Darvish stuff makes it worse

-SD only hits .195 vs lefties ...wow

-strong wind blowing in from centre field

PERSONAL PLAY FOR ME x 1U

Arizona NOT PLAYING

TEXAS @ Oakland UNDER 7.5 - rated RISKY

-Oakland hits only .186 at night!

-Oakland hits Heaney for only .212 in 35 ABs...and 1HR

- Alex Wood getting hit by Texas for a .290 avg and they hit well on the road and at night

PERSONAL PLAY - Texas runline x HALF U +125

Miami @ LAD UNDER 8.5 > rate this DECENT with a low whip rookie going against LAD potent lineup and a first start for Walker Buehler who can pitch and will have juices flowing vs a weak Marlins team

Detroit@ Cleveland UNDER 7 > rate this RISKY....both pitchers are 4 ERA + but Triston McKenzie has a very low ERA vs Detroit and there is a high wind coming in from centrefield

NYY NOT PLAYING today....

1-1 on personal plays tonight....

Trend #1 seems to be firing well tonight:

SF-PHILLY UNDER 7.5 - rated DECENT  

 SD-CUBS UNDER 7.5 - rated GOOD 

PERSONAL PLAY FOR ME x 1U   

 -Arizona NOT PLAYING

 TEXAS @ Oakland UNDER 7.5 - rated RISKY  

PERSONAL PLAY - Texas runline x HALF U +125  

Miami @ LAD UNDER 8.5 > rate this DECENT    

Detroit@ Cleveland UNDER 7 > rate this RISKY  

NYY NOT PLAYING today....

Tuesday Trend play: (will rate this tomorrow)

TB > 2 OVERS in a row ....go UNDER

Updated Main Trend Record + my ratings record:

Main Trend  OVERALL now = 52 - 29 - 1  >> when a team goes OVER for 2 games in a row, take UNDER the 3rd game and stop afterward to let a new trend develop. If 3 OVERs in a row, proceed with caution (not trend rated yet)

RECENT SIMULATED RESULTS Ratings:

Risky (< 50%- 57% likely):

Main Trend  = 5 - 1 

Decent (58 - 63% likely): 

Main Trend =  3 - 3

Good Rated (64 -70 % likely):

Main Trend = 2 - 3

Results are telling me to just take any situation where the TREND appears, especially if it looks RISKY ....which is hitting for over 80% right now on this TREND!

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Only TB with 2 recent OVERS going into today >> gauging it for an UNDER 

-Soroka with some success in one outing vs TB > .222  BA/27 ABs/0 HR/O RBIs

-TB hitting weakest vs righties, BUT their BA has gone up 40 points from April

-CWS with good stats vs Eflin but not great stats in 72 ABs ....Eflin effective to keep a 4 ERA like his lifetime avg

-CWS terrible hitting stats and they have dropped to a .187 BA in month of May 

red flags in this game >> high eras and the fact that TB has the 5th worst bullpen vs the 12th worst bullpen in baseball but the weak hitting CWS might not be able to take advantage? 

No word on the umpire and I think this one is rated RISKY, but such a rated pick is hitting for 5 - 1 success rate so far

PERSONAL PLAYS

UNDER 8 -110 x HALF U

TB runline -1.5 x 1U

Leans/strong leans:

Texas - Oak > LEAN OVER 8.5 - I see batting numbers high/improving in this situation and both pitchers are prone for runs

Det - Clev > no opinion ....weather could shorten this one

Angels-Pitt > LEAN UNDER 8/ Pitt ML - shrinking BA avg in this situation and both teams playing a lot of low scoring games lately UNDER this total and I see no reason to go against this bias .... PITT on a 3 game run after a similar funk that the Angels have not gotten out of yet

Jays @ Philly > no opinion ....lean to Jays maybe since they beat NL teams every year with ease it seems and they have this year's ace on the mound in Berrios ....tough handing the ball to their bullpen though which is the worst in baseball.

Ariz @ Cinci > STRONG LEAN to Zona /mulling UNDER  with Zac Gallen pitching, Cinci in a funk and only hitting .125 in May 

-Cinci has to show me they can pull out of this and their weak hitting stats are a shockers...some of the worst 

-Arizona hits Montas for a .300+ BA over 23 ABs but no damage with HR

-weather looks iffy so I lean UNDER on this one and hope there is no rain delay or heavy rain after 5 innings / wind blowing to home plate 

Personal Plays for me: 

Arizona ML -125 x 2U

UNDER 8.5 x HALF U

Balt @ Washington 

-two strong starting pitchers this year..... Burnes has only given up a .227 BA vs Nationals hitters

-Baltimore playing a lot of low scoring games lately and winning with good defense - pitching

-Baltimore with 10th best bullpen/ Washington is 14th

-Balt weaker vs righties and May avg is down 30 pts from April

-Nationals only hit .217 at night

-lean UNDER 8.5

Hou @ NYY - Hou bats quieting in May / Gil pitches well at home/ Verlander produces tiny BA vs NYY > BA slipping too 

-strong lean UNDER 8.5 ....Yankees with best Bullpen in b-ball

PERSONAL PLAY: Yankees ML -120 x 1U

......posting more impressions and potential plays shortly

Red Sox @ Braves -lean UNDER 8.5 - Braves only hitting .172 in May now face a good right hander / Boston BA dipping as well

-wind blowing into home dugout at 11 mph so this helps pitchers in my opinion ....TRADITIONALLY 2 strong hitting teams might wake up in the warmer weather

Padres @ Cubs >> strong Lean to Cubs! - SD only hits lefties for .201 BA and Shioto is having a stellar start to the year 

-SD sends out a high era pitcher

-strong wind blowing out to centre so take the control pitcher here...... PERSONAL PLAY CUBS -1.5 x HALF U +125

Seattle @ Minny UNDER 8.5 strong lean > Seattle not in games that tend to go this high in runs and one of the best bullpens in baseball, same with the Twins bullpen.....Ober with decent success vs a Seattle team who don't hit righties well this year

-umpire is 2-4 OVER.....cool weather

Brewers @KC  LEAN KC> Milwaukee with dipping BA in May and Seth Lugo with success vs this team

Mets @ St. Louis Strong Lean Mets > Miles not great and iffy vs Mets lifetime.... Cards are hitting .184 in May and .203 at home on the year .... PERSONAL PLAY x 1U Mets ML +105 

SF @ Colorado lean SF > Hudson is a pinata at home and Rockies are terrible 

Mia @ Dodgers lean OVER 7.5 > Cabrera with success vs LAD but that was last year and this year he is getting hit well....Yammamoto is due for 3-5 run cough up and the weather favours some runs

BOL with your decisions today 

Results:

RISKY Trend won with TB/CWS UNDER after 2 OVERS in a row.....

Personal Plays:

UNDER 8 -110 x HALF U  

TB runline -1.5 x 1U  

Arizona ML -125 x 2U  

UNDER 8.5 x HALF U   

Yankees ML -120 x 1U 

CUBS -1.5 x HALF U   NO!

Mets ML +105  x 1U   

No Play Leans Record = 6 - 4 for non plays

Feel like I am dialing in the analytics now and making good decisions

Season: Personal Plays:  Side/Totals 18 - 9  (+ 5.0 Units)   

                                                  Parlay 1 - 0  (+1.1 U)

Wednesday Trend Plays:

NONE! 

But, I am looking into what happens AFTER 3 OVERS in a row >>> 4th game in a row is mostly OVER or UNDER?

Will report findings shortly

When a team goes OVER x 3 games in a row, the chances of it:

-going OVER in the 4th game = 24 - 19 - 3 pushes = 58.6% of the time, the 4th game is an OVER or PUSH

Actually, Miami + LAD both went OVER so that means 2 in a row for them...... I am looking for an UNDER in that game....rating it shortly.

Updated Main Trend Record + my ratings record:

 Main Trend  OVERALL now = 53 - 29 - 1 (63.85%)  >> when a team goes OVER for 2 games in a row, take UNDER the 3rd game and stop afterward to let a new trend develop. If 3 OVERs in a row, proceed with caution (not trend rated yet)

RECENT SIMULATED RESULTS Ratings:

Risky (< 50%- 57% likely):

Main Trend  = 6 - 1   < even when the pitching matchup or umpire assigned looks iffy for an UNDER, its hitting!

Decent (58 - 63% likely): 

Main Trend =  3 - 3

Good Rated (64 -70 % likely):

Main Trend = 2 - 3

GL today 

Nice info. Subscribed. 

Its been working out not only on my online betting account, but my local lottery parlays.....starting to hit my stride mixing certain baseball with NBA or hockey and selective soccer plays

Will only suggest games I have done analytics in here that make sense....no guessing, so if that appeals to you, enjoy. Cheers 

Missed the early start but with games coming up....here are some thoughts uncovered

Brewers @ KC - no play >> Brewers numbers are best during the day and on the road + with a rightie so it flies in the face of Singer's excellent stats in this situation also

Personal play > SD Padres ML -130 with Vancouver Canucks +1.5 goals parlay x 1 U >>> Cease unhittable vs Cubs lifetime.... .087 BA for over 40 ABs and he is 3-0 in the afternoon and away with micro ERA

-Cub had trouble hitting Padres worse pitcher yesterday so should be a painful day for hitters for the Cubs

- Vancouver Canucks open at home and beat the Oilers all 4 games in the regular season with 3 of them by 2 or more goals!

Capping other games but want to get these in...

Are you still looking at the under on the Miami game?

Duplicate post

Miami - LAD Trend game to go UNDER 9:

-Ryan Weathers with under 3.00 ERA on the road and .136 BA vs Dodgers in 42 ABs  > only 1 HR / 3RBIs given up

-otherwise, Weathers has been a pinata this year

-massive UNDER umpire in Marquez so that is also in our favour (1-5 OVER with 2.8 era avg for games)

-Dodgers hit worst in day games by over 30 pts but hit lefties well

-Marlins hit well during the day and vs righties with avg coming up in May.....

-Stone pitching well since moving into starter role 

-wind blowing in slightly and 0% humidity which is a pure KNOCK DOWN WIND so balls will have difficulty getting out of the park!

Rating = 5.9 out of 10 to go UNDER which is DECENT.....if better era/command pitcher, I would rate this one good

I am completely on fire these past few days....don't know what it is but bet REAL MADRID to win when they were down 1-0 at the 75th minute at good odds for $50 and they scored 2 goals to win and they do it!!

TREND wins again today ! >> now  54 - 29 - 1 (65.06%)  >> when a team goes OVER for 2 games in a row, take UNDER the 3rd game 

Personal play alive > SD Padres ML -130  with Vancouver Canucks +1.5 goals parlay x 1 U (TBD)

RECENT SIMULATED RESULTS Ratings:

Risky (< 50%- 57% likely):

Main Trend  = 6 - 1   < even when the pitching matchup or umpire assigned looks iffy for an UNDER, its hitting!

Decent (58 - 63% likely): 

Main Trend =  4 - 3

Good Rated (64 -70 % likely):

Main Trend = 2 - 3

OVERALL recently since counting 12 - 7 in thread (+ what was uncovered from March 28 - April 21)

Taking it easy tonight.....sometimes when you are hot and cashed, put your feet up and get refreshed and come back at it the next day

On trend tomorrow....lots of options

KC  - will rate tomorrow (night game)

Brewers - will rate tomorrow (night game)

Cleveland - will rate tomorrow (night game)

Detroit - NOT PLAYING

Houston - Yanks have not seen Blanco before / Stroman pitches well to Houston lifetime  > rate this one UNDER 8.5 RISKY still with the potent hitting lineups coming alive (Yankees) 

Minnesota - (see below)

Seattle - 1 PM start - Gilbert is great on the road and day games / Lopez pretty good in this situation too 

- .211 and .235 BA averages for both vs each lineup / Seattle hits .197 in day games

- if UNDER ump > rate this UNDER 7.0 as DECENT  but I think with such a low number, a PUSH is possible so rate RISKY

Oakland - on potential new trend of 3 OVERS .... bet OVER again (hits almost 59%

Texas -on new trend of 3 OVERS .... bet OVER again (hits almost 59%

*** bye the way >>> Yankees were on this trend (forgot to mention) and they hit another OVER!

RESULTS > When a team goes OVER x 3 games in a row, the chances of it:

 -going OVER in the 4th game = 25 - 19 - 3 pushes

Just the one play today >> calling it a bust even though game left but Canuck goalie looks shattered after letting in two softies!

Personal play alive > SD Padres ML -130  with Vancouver Canucks +1.5 goals parlay x 1 U (TBD) 

HOLD ON A MINUTE!!!! Classic go to bed 'down 4 - 1' give up and they come back and win....wow what a day 

 SD Padres ML -130   with Vancouver Canucks +1.5 goals parlay x 1 U  << what a comeback!

Season: Personal Plays:  Side/Totals 18 - 9  (+ 5.0 Units)   

                                                  Parlay 2 - 0  (+2.3 U)

Tough day in the family with dog almost had to be put down but she is a tough girl and she overcame continuous seizures over hours to get some meds into her and now won't be an issue....taking the rest of the night off

Consider the remaining plays as RISKY classification to go UNDER