Last2Thirst Season Thread - Totals + some ATS

Thursday results on MAIN TREND:

KC  - RISKY UNDER 8.5  

Brewers - RISKY UNDER 7.5 

Cleveland - RISKY UNDER 7.5 

Detroit - NOT PLAYING > use Friday as an UNDER

 Houston -  rate this one UNDER 8.5 RISKY  

Seattle - > rate this UNDER 7.0  a PUSH is possible so rate RISKY  

RECENT SIMULATED RESULTS Ratings for MAIN TREND:

rated: Risky (< 50%- 57% likely):

Main Trend  = 8 - 4

Trend #2 ( continue OVER after 3 in a row ) =    

rated: Decent (58 - 63% likely): 

Main Trend =  4 - 3

 Trend #2 ( continue OVER after 3 in a row ) =

rated: Good (64 -70 % likely):

Main Trend = 2 - 3

Trend #2 ( continue OVER after 3 in a row ) =

OVERALL recently since counting 14 - 10 in thread (+ what was uncovered from March 28 - April 21)

Since start of season now =  56 - 32 - 1 (63.63%)  >> when a team goes OVER for 2 games in a row, take UNDER the 3rd game

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MY PERSONAL PLAY RESULTS:

Side/Totals 18 - 9  (+ 5.0 Units)   

Parlay 2 - 0  (+2.3 U)

Time to get back up on the horse after a day and a half off.....

FRIDAY Considerations + Ratings:

MAIN TREND:

Detroit >  UNDER 8 on main trend of 2 consecutive OVERs leads to an UNDER 

-Framber Valdez with a low era of .221 with 2HR/13 RBIs over 80+ ABs

- Tigers good hitters in this situation vs a leftie/home/night and rising May BA

- Houston with good hitting numbers but weaker when AWAY/night and vs rightie (May BA is down 30+ points)

- Casey Mize has thrown only 7 ABs vs Houston

RISKY UNDER in my opinion and I lean to Detroit if picking a side

St.L @ Milwaukee UNDER 8.5 

note: this is a crossover Main Trend game vs new Trend #2 which Milwaukee is on 3 straight OVERS (MAIN TREND with high % success so this game maybe is a lay off if Main Trend seems difficult

-Lance Lynn with good away and night pitching numbers and Brewers have hit him for only a .267 BA

-Brewers weakest hitting at night and home but hit righties best for .266 avg

-no announced pitcher yet for Milwaukee >> watch for it to be a LEFTY because Cards only hit .189 vs a lefty!

Rated RISKY > due to unknown pitcher and rated DECENT if left handed pitcher announced

Texas @ Colorado - UNDER 9.5 *** ANOTHER CROSSOVER GAME of Main Trend vs Trend #2

- Jon Gray with great away and night numbers for Texas facing his old team of a few years ago

-GRAY gets fired up vs his old team with only allowing a .146 BA 

-Rockies BA is plunging in May and hit worst vs righties

-Austin Gomber with a .300 BA vs this Texas lineup in 70 ABs but only has given up 1 HR

-Gombers numbers a decent for home appearances

-temps are fairly low through the game with moderate humidity so not a huge factor in helping ball carry with light air caused by high elevation

rate this game RISKY still for UNDER 9.5 ....due to crossover trends and the light air /Texas with some recent high scoring games and Rockies too

STRONG LEAN > take Texas -185 as a parlay partner with something you like

Cinci @ SF who is on 2 consecutive OVERS so take UNDER 7.5

-Cinci sends a left who has good numbers in this situation vs a SF team coming home off of a 10 game road trip which tends to cause a team to play a little dopey their first home game....so I expect SF hitters to be off kilter a little 

-Logan Webb with a .266 BA vs Cinci with giving up only 2 HRs in 140+ ABs

-Webb with a shiny .082 ERA  at home over 22  innings so I expect more of the same vs a putrid hitting Cincy team who hit .202 away, .207 vs righties and a mega plunging .167 BA in May !

RATE this game GOOD to go UNDER 7.5 despite not knowing who the umpire is

PERSONAL PLAY x 1U each > parlay Texas with SF pays > +120

                                          > UNDER 7.5 x1U -125

TREND #2 (games that don't crossover with Main Trend)

-Oakland + Seattle BOTH with 3 OVERS in a row > bet 4th OVER? Total set at 7.5 runs

- Before Blackburn's last 1 run given up stint, he had been pegged for 6 , 4  and 3 runs

- his away ERA and most recent set of games in mid 5.00 ERA approaching 6 ERA

- Oakland facing a rookie who was 4 - 5 W/L last year with a 4.21 ERA 

- 3 of the last 4 games between these two teams have gone OVER

RATING = DECENT chance to go OVER 7.5 for Trend #2 play

KC on 3 OVERS @ LAA OVER 8.5 

-Ripperberger umping and he is 6 - 0 OVER with 10.5 runs average in games he umpires 

-wind blowing out moderately to centre-left field and fairly high humidity so ball should carry

-Alec Marsh (KC) with a micro ERA at night and good on the road with 2 scoreless outings in a row....BUT, is returning from the 15 day IL so might be tentative and throwing in the zone as well which means LAA hitters might recognize this and pounce on him

-Angels hit well at home/night 

-KCs May BA up over 30 points from April and they hit well in this situation - Night/vs a rightie

- LAA Angels with 2nd worst bullpen in baseball! (KC is middle of the pack)

Rating = GOOD or 6.7 out of 10 to go OVER 8.5

-Griffin Canning has given up runs every game he has pitched and is over 6 ERA in this situation

PERSONAL PLAY: KC -115 x 2U and OVER 8.5 x 1U

Minnesota on 3 OVERS in a row @ Toronto OVER 7.5 (dome closed likely due to cool weather)

-Toronto with worst bullpen in baseball

- Kikuchi with decent numbers vs Twins and strong pitching this year

-BUT....Twins excellent away/night and especially vs left handers for a .287 BA

-Toronto beginning to show signs of run producing in the last 10 after a brutal end of April and start of May

-Joe Ryan yet to have a clean game but Toronto hits him for .306 BA in 26 ABs

rated RISKY and almost DECENT due to low total but Jays are so fickle with their bats and have good pitcher on the mound

Other personal Plays:

CUBS ML +115 x HALF U - Pirates with worst batting stats in this situation and a plunging .174 BA  in May

-UNDER looks good but I don't have much luck with 7 Run totals over the years ...too many PUSHes or 1 run losses

Phillies runline -1.5 @ Miami x 1U - I expect Suarez to bounce back and has excellent situational numbers and Marlins only hit him for a .197 BA lifetime  

Risky plays have been the best so far but I expect that's normal variance and will shift towards good as the season progresses.  

Great start, keep up the good work!

I agree, thanks. 

I rarely rate something as a GOOD situation

Also remember what I said in earlier posts....I expect regression by mid June in the MAIN TREND which is why I will drop it and find another to take up its flight for the hot weather season of 2 months or so

FRIDAY results + Ratings:

 MAIN TREND:

Detroit >  UNDER 8 RISKY UNDER  in my opinion and I lean to Detroit if picking a side 

St.L @ Milwaukee UNDER 8.5 Rated RISKY  note: this is a Crossover game of Main Trend game vs new Trend #2

Texas @ Colorado - UNDER 9.5  *** CROSSOVER GAME of Main Trend vs Trend #2 > rate this game RISKY still for UNDER 9.5  (going to keep a stat for CROSSOVER games)

Cinci @ SF who is on 2 consecutive OVERS so take UNDER 7.5  RATE this game GOOD to go UNDER 7.5

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TREND #2 (only games that don't crossover with Main Trend >> not as strong as MAIN TREND > record so far = 26 - 21 to go OVER for the 4th game in a row which is only 55.3 % and will drop this as soon as it hits below 51%)

-keeping track of these on Simulation for the next few weeks (not recommendations yet until close to 60% and the situation suits your inclination)

-Oakland + Seattle BOTH with 3 OVERS in a row > bet 4th OVER 7.5 runs  RATING = DECENT chance 

- KC on 3 OVERS @ LAA OVER 8.5  Rating = GOOD or 6.7 out of 10 

- Minnesota on 3 OVERS in a row @ Toronto OVER 7.5  rated RISKY 

- 

RECENT SIMULATED RESULTS Ratings for MAIN TREND:

OVERALL recently since counting 17 - 11 in thread

RECENT SIMULATED RESULTS Ratings for MAIN TREND:

rated: Risky (< 50%- 57% likely):

Main Trend  = 10 - 5

Trend #2 ( continue OVER after 3 in a row ) =  0 - 1  

rated: Decent (58 - 63% likely): 

Main Trend =  4 - 3

Trend #2 ( continue OVER after 3 in a row ) = 1 - 0

rated: Good (64 -70 % likely):

Main Trend =  3 - 3

Trend #2 ( continue OVER after 3 in a row ) = 0 - 1

OVERALL recently since counting 17 - 11 in thread ( after April 22)

Since start of season now =  59 - 33 - 1 (64.13%)  >> when a team goes OVER for 2 games in a row, take UNDER the 3rd game

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MY PERSONAL PLAY RESULTS:

Friday:

4 - 1 Sides/ATS

0 - 1  Parlay

SEASON PLAYS -  RESULTS:

Side/Totals  22 - 10  (+ 8.5 Units)   

Parlay 2 - 1  (+1.3 U)

TREND GAMES SATURDAY:

 no Main Trend games  

Trend #2:

St. Louis @ Milwaukee  > Cardinals with 3 OVERS in a row > get the 4th in a row set at 7.5 runs ? (Brewers going for 5th!)

- Brewers with strong numbers vs righties

-Kyle Gibson down about 2.00 on his career era > regression coming? Brewers hit .247 BA with this lineup over 73 ABs and got 3 HR /6 RBIs too

-Freddy Peralta goes or the Brewers and he is having control issues such that he has allowed 6 and 5 walks in the last few games ... is pitches well at night and so so at home

- coming off injury IL so those games were before his injury

umpire is an UNDER ump.....who favours the home team!!

Rate this OVER 7.5 as RISKY

note: Today, both SEATTLE and OAKLAND are going for their 5th OVER in a row.....no comments on it as I have not done a study on 5 OVERS in a row but from observation, they can continue to go OVER above 50% ....matchup 

WILL rate some games later......have to do some yardwork first, before the rains come

4pm games:

I see an edge with the RED SOX-NATIONALS game  - UNDER 8.5 x HALF U - low era pitchers in this situation 

7pm+ games:

Kind of like this Clev- CWS matchup to go UNDER 8  x HALF U 

-windy city is blowing into home plate to third base dugout 

-both pitchers with under .200 ERAs vs the lineups they face.....umpire leans to UNDERS usually and favors the home team who will be jacked up facing his old team after a bad outing...nice situation

-Cleveland with 2nd best bullpen in baseball and CWS is middle of the pack

Seattle runline  -105 x1U

- starter for Oakland has a 6 ERA in the minors in a warm SW league BUT....major league hitters are still tougher 

-Bryce Felder with some success vs Oakland and the A's hit the worst on the road/night and vs a rightie

Results tonight:

Trend #2:

St. Louis @ Milwaukee  > Cardinals with 3 OVERS in a row > get the 4th in a row set at 7.5 runs  

Rate this OVER 7.5 as RISKY  

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PERSONAL PLAYS:

RED SOX-NATIONALS game  - UNDER 8.5 x HALF U 

Clev- CWS matchup to go UNDER 8  x HALF U  

Seattle  runline  -105 x1U  ... in progress

Sunday Trend Qualifiers:

Main Trend: 

Phillies and Miami with 2 OVERS in a row > look into an UNDER Sunday

-Zach Wheeler is on fire during the day / Braxton Garrett gets hit by Phillies 

-both Miami and Phillies with the 5 worst bullpens in baseball

RISKY UNDER 7 PLAY - don't like it unless the umpire is a pure UNDER umpy

Pirates and Cubs with 2 OVERS in a row > look into an UNDER Sunday

>>> no total yet due to no pitcher announced for Cubs announced...will address this one tomorrow

Pirates and Cubs with 2 OVERS in a row > CANNOT recommend this will over since it has the make up of the worst UNDER play I have seen in a while 

- Falter with good home era but 0-3 with over 10 ERA vs Cubs

-Hendricks off DL but with a 12 ERA so far and close to a 4 ERA lifetime in this stadium and vs Pirates

- Umpire today has the highest ERA of games with over 13 runs per game!!!!

Rate this one VERY RISKY 3.3 out of 10 to go UNDER 9.0

Sorry....I would have posted this earlier but could not refresh and have this post go through for the last 20 minutes for some reason??

 Two Personal plays today:

Twins -120 @ Jays x 2U - Manoah has fight in him but he cannot command his pitches and this is a bad combo vs a good hitting team like the Twins

-Ober pitches well vs Jays but only for 31 ABs so far 

parlay > OVER 8.5 Pitt-Cubs -140 with Jays OVER 8 runs -105 paying +175 x 1U ...yes I am going against the grain of MAIN TREND, but this seems like a great parlay for $100

Will update my thread results every 2-3 days now as I am entering a busy season for a month or so....

SUNDAY:

Pirates and Cubs with 2 OVERS in a row > CANNOT recommend this  

Rate this one VERY RISKY 3.3 out of 10 to go UNDER 9.0  PUSH !

Two Personal plays today:

Twins -120 @ Jays x 2U   

parlay > OVER 8.5 Pitt-Cubs -140  with Jays OVER 8 runs  -105 paying +175 x 1U

Will update everything tomorrow or Tuesday......

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TREND OPTIONS FOR MONDAY:

Main Trend > ripe teams for Monday:

Baltimore

Arizona

Detroit

Houston

Yankees

Tampa

Trend #2:

Phillies

Miami

Continuous Overs: 

-Both Seattle and Oakland will be playing for 7th OVER in a row 

Had a look at all of the TREND plays above tonight and not worth capping to declare them DECENT rating or GOOD rating.

My play tonight is:

Cubs ML +120 x HALF U

Cubs Under 7.5 x HALF U

gl 

TREND OPTIONS FOR MONDAY: >> RESULTS  ( having looked at all games, each play was considered RISKY)

Main Trend > ripe teams for Monday: 

Baltimore  > UNDER 

Arizona  >  UNDER  

Detroit  >  UNDER  

Houston  > UNDER  

Yankees  > day off

Tampa  > UNDER   

Trend #2:

Phillies   > OVER  

Miami    > OVER  

Continuous Overs: 

-Both Seattle and Oakland will be playing for 7th OVER in a row   >> wow...they will be playing Tuesday for their 8th OVER in a row!!

Tuesday Trend Games:

Main Trend: 

Yankees @ Twins with 2 OVERS >> looking for an UNDER 

- decent pitching stats for both vs batters and 8.5 total seems reasonable >> Yanks and Twins with Top 10 bullpens!

rate 5.9 out of 10 DECENT to go UNDER 8.5

Cincy with 2 OVERS in a row  - go UNDER 8.5? 

-Greene with good ABs vs Zona who don't hit righties well.....Greene good on the road (under 1.00 ERA)

-Secconi not good at home for Zona but Cincy is a very weak hitting team

-umpire tends to illicit a low ERA and UNDERS 

Rate this one 5.9 out of 10 or DECENT chance to go UNDER 8.5

Personal Bet > parlay > Dodgers ML with Padres ML x1U

Trend #2:

Detroit with 3 OVERS in a row.....bet it continues to 4 Overs and their opponent also on a streak of 4 OVERS

Houston with 3 OVERS in a row .... bet it continues..... TREND #2 is only in simulation mode until I have enough recency data...it helps that Oakland has had 8 OVERS in a row

RECENT SIMULATED RESULTS Ratings for MAIN TREND and #2:

April 21 - May 14  SIMULATED RESULTS Ratings for MAIN TREND:

rated: Risky (< 50%- 57% likely):

Main Trend  = 12 - 8 - 1

 rated: Decent (58 - 63% likely): 

Main Trend =  6 - 3

rated: Good (64 -70 % likely):

Main Trend =  3 - 3

OVERALL recently since counting 21 - 14 - 1  in this thread ( after April 21)

Since start of season now =  63 - 37 - 2 (63.00% for 100 instances)  >> when a team goes OVER for 2 games in a row, take UNDER the 3rd game

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TREND #2 

(only play games that don't crossover with Main Trend) >> not as strong as MAIN TREND > record so far = 29 - 23 to go OVER for the 4th game in a row which is only 55.76 % and will drop this as soon as it hits below 51%)

-this TREND was perfect from Saturday to the end of Monday and then went 0 - 2 on Tuesday!

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PERSONAL SEASON PICKS -  RESULTS:

Side/Totals  26 - 12  (+ 10.5 Units)   

Parlay 2 - 3  (-0.7 U)

WEDNESDAY TREND GAMES:

Main Trend:

Col @ SD Padres 4 pm game to go UNDER 7.0 ?

-Col .227 away and .224 in day games but have hit Michael King for .333 in 24 ABs

-Padres hit .229 at home but over .270 in day games but only hit .202 vs lefties and Gomber held them to 1 run in Colorado!  >>> however May BA is 30 pts higher than April 

-this TOTAL is an over reaction because Ripperberger is the umpy and he is 6 - 1 OVER

Rating = 5.0 out of 10 RISKY!

Cardinals at LAA Angels to go UNDER 8.5 ?

-WIND blowing to centre and the umpire has a higher ERA but is showing only 3 - 4 OVER record

-Griffin Canning pitching much better for Angels the last 2 games and has Cards held to a .174 BA over 23 ABs > Cardinals hit best in this situation BUT they are a weaker hitting team overall in the majors

- Lynn has given up 4 runs each of his last 2 outings and has a 6 ERA on the year >> Angels hit well in this situation and have hit Lynn for .321 BA lifetime with this lineup

LAD vs SD >> Crossover game....avoid.... LA expected to go UNDER and SF with 3 OVERS in a row

Rating = 5.4 out of 10 RISKY

Trend #2: 

- no examples for Wednesday!

My only PERSONAL PLAY OF THE DAY:

Cleveland @ Texas UNDER 8.5 x 1U

- Gray and Carrasco pitch well vs these lineups

- Under ump with low era will give corner strikes to good and respected pitchers

- I am mostly playing the angle that Cleveland will not score a ton of runs like they have averaged for the past 3 games (7 runs per) and expect some regression and Carrasco has good numbers vs Texas hitters and seems to have turned the corner from an 8 run given up outing 3 games ago

Nice work

Thanks m3ntal.... 

took yesterday off and haven't looked today but doing so now

Trend PLAYS FRIDAY:

Main Trend:

Phillies and Washington to go UNDER 7.5 - DECENT chance after 2 OVERS (haven't got time to go into detail)

Mets and Marlins to go UNDER 7.5 after 2 Mets OVERS - RISKY 

Trend #2 - 3 OVERS in a row to continue....

Given the way UNDER is hitting regularly, all are RISKY unless otherwise stated....this trend is hitting about 55%

Padres @ Braves

Angels @ Rangers

Boston @ St. Louis

Colorado @ SF

Personal Plays:

UNDER Phillies 7.5 x 1U

Braves -1.5 +105 x 1U

Seattle /Orioles UNDER 8.5 x 1U

Me > 1 - 2

Main Trend > 1 - 1

Trend #2 > 3 - 1