Personal Plays:
UNDER 8 - Yankees /CWS x 2U
-umpire is definitely an UNDER ump....both pitchers have good stats in this situation of afternoon and other variables
- look at last sets of games between them and recency for each team.....lots of scores under 8
-wind not a factor except to hold balls in the air >> coming from centre-left field
-umpire is 1-7 OVER
UNDER 8 - +105 Cubs and Pirates x 1U - these two teams tend to produce OVERS with each other except, this pitching matchup skews toward and UNDER with Shota on the mound and Falter with decent numbers in this situation
-umpire has low era and 0-2 OVER.....wind not a factor here as much as people think
Main Trend Ratings:
CUBS-PIRATES > rate it as DECENT chance > 6.2 out of 10 to go UNDER 8 as a MAIN TREND candidate
RED SOX - CARDS UNDER 8.5 > rate this as DECENT > 5.7 out of 10 chance to go UNDER
-Mikolas best pitching situation stats is home and at night
-Cards are not a strong hitting team but improved in past 10 days > Kutter C is unhittable some games
-umpire is 0 - 8 for the home team in final score record and I see he allows fewer runs for visitor
Personal Play > Boston ML -120 x1U (they are 1 win in the last 5 games but cannot deny the advantages they have here with umpire and stronger starter /bullpen by far)
CINCY @ LAD UNDER 8 > RISKY chance rated 5.6 out of 10 ...almost DECENT
-both pitchers have done well in the past vs lineups but this year they are both susceptible to runs in this situation
-Walker B has lost his fastball prowess for the time being and so a weak hitting Cincy team might actually wait for his fastball and turn on it....
-4 of Cincy's last 6 games have gone OVER on the road
-dry and cool air might help but to me, its about hitting the pitchers instead of ball carry in this game
-umpire for this match tends to go UNDER
That Yankees hold with a great bullpen was a thing of beauty. It was 4 - 1 after 2 innings, 6-1 after 6 innings and the score stayed where it was for a nice cover >>> UNDER 8 - Yankees /CWS x 2U 
This one is 0 - 0 going into the top of the 9th > UNDER 8 - +105 Cubs and Pirates x 1U
- anything can happen so watching it nervously 
Main Trend Saturday = 2 - 1
Me = 2 - 1
-------------------------
Last Couple of days
Main Trend = 3 - 2
Trend #2 = 3 - 1
---------------------------------------------------------
Trend Prospects for Sunday: - will rate soon
Main Trend:
NYM @ Miami UNDER 8.5 after 2 straight OVERS
Col @ SF UNDER 7.5 (NOTE: Rockies on a long OVER streak)
Detroit @ Arizona UNDER 8.5
Trend #2:
Boston @ St. L going for a fourth OVER in a row ( 8.5 total)
Angles for Today:
CWS @ Yankees > Flexen hit for over .300 avg by Yankee lineup/ Rodon only .152 by CWS
-CWS terrible away/day and vs lefties especially!
-Yanks with rising BA in May, and love righties
-wind coming into home plate at 9 mph / umpire no bias to speak of
**WOULD TAKE YANKEES BUT PRICE IS WAY TOO HIGH**
Nationals @ Phillies
-super interesting stat comparison of pitchers....both are on fire BUT, Nola has given up no HRs to Nationals in 100 ABs and Williams has given up a rich 13 HRs 
for a similar total of ABs
-umpire and weather will not be an influence
- I say you parlay the Yankees with the Phillies if inclined....... and take the UNDER 7.5 for 1U? << I will
Main Trend Play >> very RISKY > Mets at Marlins to go UNDER ...Marlins have clubbed 3 HRs in less than 20 ABs vs Manaea who is not really pitching well and nor is Sixto Sanchez
Twins @ Cleveland > playing OVER 7.5 as a personal bet x HALF U
- warm day in Cleveland and the ball carries.....these pitchers have terrible eras in this situation and vs each other
-Barrett behind the plate can frustrate pitchers and be a friend for hitters
Looking at 2 pm games next....
Brewers @ Houston - Total = 9 runs /Brewers +115 ML
-taking Brewers ML +115 x 2U !
-excellent team with better bullpen and pitcher on the road is a deadly combo vs a weaker team, bullpen and a young pitcher who gets lit up...
-best UNDER ump behind the plate and who do you think it will benefit?
Pitt @ Cubs - taking Cubs -120 ML x1U
-Keller pitching well last 2 games but not before that and has an over .300 lifetime BA vs Cubs
-Taillon pitching very well this season with low whip and era and a superb BA vs this Pitt lineup
-better team, pitcher
-wind is blowing in strongly from centre so the UNDER is worth a look here
ONE OF THE BEST CARDS TO MAKE PICKS FROM IN A WHILE .....today......will cap 4pm games later
4pm Trend games:
Col @ SF to go UNDER 7.5 after 2 OVERS?
-RISKY proposition with Dakota Hudson on the mound and Jordan Hicks gives up runs every out
-Colorado and San Fran with the 27th and 28th worst bullpens!
Det @ Zona to go UNDER 8.5 after 2 OVERS?
-RISKY - Montgomery giving up runs easily and Det hits him for a .300 avg
- Matt Manning is an average pitcher going against a good Zona hitting team in a hitters park
YU Darvish with crazy good numbers vs Braves and has pitched 3 scoreless outings in a row.........
- no word on who the umpire is going to be
- wind blowing out at mild wind but dry air so not assisting flight of ball much
UNDER 9 runs is a nice bet x 1U in the night game .... umpires and pitchers tend to be in sink for low scoring games I find but we have a Braves team that is not blossoming yet with their bats
The UNDER is 14 - 1 at home for the BRAVES with this TOTAL of 9 runs!! >> SD tends to score more runs on the road so ELDER is going to have to be good vs the PADRES to help out....YU will be YU!
-Elder has a .174 BA in 23 attempts vs this Padre lineup
-wish I knew who the umpire was
Took Monday off. Tuesday Trends:
Main Trend:
Washington (h) on a 2 OVER streak vs Twins to go UNDER 8.5?
-both pitchers in good form in this situation and even Corbin pitching well lately
-Twins hit lefties very well so if you don't like the UNDER, siding with Twins might be a good angle > problem is...TWINS on a 7 game losing streak!
-OVER ump big time in this game.....pass for me and RISKY if considering
Yankees and Seattle BOTH on a 2 game OVER streak > consider UNDER 8.0?
-Bryan Woo very successful in two starts now and Schmidt with 2 shutout outings in a row / under 1.5 era in last 3
-medium wind blowing to left field foul pole and REYBURN is 1 - 6 OVER this year with a low ERA
-rated GOOD 6.5 out of 10 chance to go UNDER in my opinion
Det @ KC who has had 2 OVERS in a row and Det with 4 in a row > to go UNDER 9?
-STRONG wind blowing out to right field and that is never good in this park if left handed batters
-no umpire info available
-Casey Mize gets hit for .320 avg vs KC / Alec Marsh pitching real good last 4 and great at home/night
-Rate this RISKY play but the 9th run might help
Baltimore on 2 OVERs @ St.L with 7 in a row > go UNDER 9?
-STRONG wind blowing out to left field ....would assist right handers if they pitched inside
-Bradish pitching well for Orioles since coming back....good record vs Cards
- Lance Lynn is a min 4 run pinata BUT ....has held Orioles to .200 avg over 60 ABs and only 2 HRs
-extreme UNDER umpire who is 1-8 OVER
-Rating is DECENT to go UNDER 9 > 6.1 out of 10
Houston (h) with 2 OVERS in a row > to go UNDER 9?
-Canning is a pinata pitcher for the Angels and Houston rakes him for a .320 BA
-Houston hitting well lately and Angels improved
- Javier pitched well last time and has good BA vs Angels
-umpire is 2 - 6 OVER this year
Rating is RISKY because of Canning and hot bats
not playing anything personally tonight ....just taking a break for a bit
Will update Trend %'s later......
Wednesday Main Trend options:
Washington/Twins both with 2 OVERS in a row > consider UNDER 9?
-umpire unknown / wind blowing out and warm
-pitchers are inconsistent so this play is RISKY
Orioles on 2 OVERS /St. L on many > go UNDER 8.5?
-strong wind blowing out but cool for this time of the year (low 70's)
- both pitchers get hit well by the other team > rate this RISKY
Angels 2 OVERS in a row vs Hou with 3 OVERS >>> CROSSOVER trend game...won't play it
Oakland at home on 2 OVERS in a row facing Rockies > go UNDER 8?
-BOTH Gomber and Spence pitching well lately and consistently on the year
-umpire unknown/ normal wind for Oakland blowing out and dipping
-A's don't hit well at night and lefties
-rate this one DECENT chance to go UNDER
PERSONAL PLAY > UNDER 8 x 1U
Arizona with many OVERS in a row @ LAD on 2 OVERS in a row > go UNDER 8?
-these two teams are motivated playing each other and Glasnow getting hit recently after a good start / high BA vs Zona
-Nelson not a good pitcher > going UNDER is RISKY!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend #2:
KC on 3 OVERS and Detroit many >> go OVER 7?
-OVER ump on the mound / wind blowing to right filed and dry day so air won't carry well
- maybe can go over but SKUBAL for Detroit is great on the road and KC pitcher can be good but every once in a while gets lit up so I am doing a PERSONAL PLAY > Detroit Tigers x 1U ML -120
SEA and YANKEES both on 3 OVERS in a row >> go OVER 8?
-UNDER umpire /wind blowing strongly to left field pole
-Bryce Miller era inching up / Cortes as well but he is good at home
Can't believe its been 8 days since my last UPDATE..... have an aging dog going through a rough patch so time dedicated to watching her carefully.
RECENT SIMULATED RESULTS Ratings for MAIN TREND and #2: - MAY 23 UPDATE
April 21 - May 22 SIMULATED RESULTS Ratings for MAIN TREND:
rated: Risky: >>> over the last 7+ days, this rating of RISKY has only gone 4 - 9 , SO....with the warmer weather starting to set in, it might be time to PUNT these suggestions!!! >> AND START SIMULATING THAT THEY GO OVER IF RISKY??
Main Trend in this category now = 16 - 17 - 1
rated: Decent (58 - 63% likely):
Main Trend = 10 - 4 >> this category went 4 - 1 over the last while
rated: Good (64 -70 % likely):
Main Trend = 3 - 4
OVERALL recently since counting 29 - 25 - 1 in this thread ( after April 21)
Since start of season now = 71 - 47 - 2 (60.10% which is dropping!) >> when a team goes OVER for 2 games in a row, take UNDER the 3rd game
NOT SIMULATING RISKY UNDER PLAYS after 2 OVERS anymore..... just DECENT or GOOD rated ....heat is beginning to inflate game totals where the pitchers are suspect vs hitters or in poor form after 2 OVERS .....OVER is continuing in this situation
----------------------------------------------------------
TREND #2
Over the past 7-8 days = SCORCHING HOT 7 - 1
(only play games that don't crossover with Main Trend) >> NOW TRENDING STRONGER than MAIN TREND ! > record so far = 36 - 24 to go OVER for the 4th game in a row which is 60.00 % )
----------------------------------------------------------------
PERSONAL PLAYS >> hit a rough patch
5 - 8 >> -2.5 Units 
SEASON RECORD NOW:
Side/Totals 31 - 20 (+ 8.0 Units) .... I was running hot and now reverting to the mean?
Parlay 2 - 3 (-0.7 U)
Thursday suggestions + TREND PLAYS:
PITT/SF - 2 Overs in a row and now pitcher announced for SF....wind blowing out and no idea who umpire is....I can see the recent OVER trend pushing this one OVER 8 runs
NO TREND PLAYS aligning today.....but will make a PERSONAL PLAY if I see an angle....will check games later
Thursday angles:
Luis Castillo pitches well on the road and is a horse... 6-7 innings regularly > holds Yankees to .156 era and 1 HR over 90 ABs....that is stellar! (Yankees hitting well and May BA increasing however....)
- in this series, Sea up 2 - 1 and the run totals have been > 10 , 9 , 9
- Yankees win record has been smoking hot in May
- Gil hot in last 3 starts (1.00 era) and good at home > Yanks with 2nd best bullpen and Sea 11th best
TWO Dominican Rep pitchers who will try to outduel each other......I REALLY LIKE THE UNDER here although, the bias recently of games that are high scoring 3 times in a ROW tend to continue to a 4th game
CASTILLO the elder horse to outduel the younger hotshot GIL? Lean Seattle but this is a very proud Yankee home team
STRONG LEAN > UNDER 7.5 and SEATTLE
My Play >> looking for a PARLAY partner to go UNDER 8.5 paying -150 and I found one in the PHILLIES ML so parlay pays +115 x 1U
-Andrew Heaney has had 4 good starts in a row and do I trust him for 5 in a row with high era and 0 - 5? His bullpen is the WORST IN BASEBALL!
-Heaney gets rocked by the Phillies lineup so I am also playing Phillies x 1U runline @ +100
- I expect Wheeler to be a bulldog after two iffy starts in a row ....and he is good at home despite Texas hitting him well but only base hits mostly since only 1HR given up over 58 ABs
Looking at 2 pm games next ....
Strong lean to the OVER for me on the 3:40 pm game x HALF U OVER 7.5
-Feltner is terrible and on the road worse
- Oakland is sending out a young pitcher who got shelled last game
- Colorado with 4th worst bullpen and Oakland is top 10 so give me A's ML x HALF U
SWEET! Nice to get some capping mojo back!
STRONG LEAN > UNDER 7.5 and SEATTLE 
My Play >> looking for a PARLAY partner to go UNDER 8.5 paying -150 and I found one in the PHILLIES ML so parlay pays +115 x 1U 
-Andrew Heaney has had 4 good starts in a row and do I trust him for 5 in a row with high era and 0 - 5? His bullpen is the WORST IN BASEBALL!
-Heaney gets rocked by the Phillies lineup so I am also playing Phillies x 1U runline @ +100
Just working on an Oakland OVER now 2 out of 8 runs scored in order to get it....
Not going to press much more. I will look for something later if its real real good
That was then *5-6 days) >>
PERSONAL PLAYS >> hit a rough patch
5 - 8 >> -2.5 Units
This is now for the next 5-7 days:
Today:
2 - 0 Sides/Totals
1 - 0 Exotic (parlay)
SEASON RECORD NOW:
Side/Totals 33 - 20 (+ 9.5 Units) .... I was running hot and now reverting to the mean?
Parlay 3 - 3 (+0.3 U)
Main Trend Options to look at for tomorrow (only DECENT or GOOD ratings now):
Cincy with 2 consecutive OVERS
Padres with 2 consecutive OVERS
Baltimore with 2 consecutive OVERS (if they get one more run here)
Chicago WS with 2 consecutive OVERS
Blue Jays with 2 consecutive OVERS (Detroit on a long OVER run)
....will only mention ones that have a DECENT rating
Trend #2:
Pitt with 3 consecutive OVERS
SF with 3 consecutive OVERS
None of the MAIN TREND games make sense to me to play UNDER
Trend #2 game to go OVER with the best potential is the SF - Mets as long as you can still get 7.5 runs..... pitchers should give up a few each even if pitching well and SF has a terrible bullpen
-SF scoring a lot of runs in the last 15 game or so
Toronto - Detroit - OVER 8.5 looking a little attractive for these reasons: (no official play for me)
- Ripperberger umping - high era and 7-2 OVER record
-Detroit on a long OVER streak
- Manning for Detroit consistently gives up runs in his starts and can be a pinata at times....Jays bats heating up now
-Detroit vs Manoah is a question mark always....he erratic, these hitters can feast ?? ....Manoah has found his delivery and velocity mojo now with 2 exceptional starts but during the day, I think he might lose his routine and focus to pitch against a good hitting Tigers team
- predict a 7-3/ 8-4 kind of game .....wind blowing in slightly
Main Trend play >> RISKY to DECENT rating....
Burnes vs Flexen..... UNDER ump + strong wind coming toward home plate and home dugout ..... Flexen can get sloppy giving up a lot of hits so proceed with caution
Note on the Yanks and Padres....
-was looking at this one as a personal play BUT....
-DARVISH has been lights out in the 3-4 games...pretty much unhittable ....HOWEVER, this Yankee lineup has batting stats creeping up all May and they hit Yu Darvish lifetime for a .395 BA for 43 ABs
43 17 1 0 2 8 1 11 .395
Rodon excellent on the road and at night. HOLDS THE PADRES to .150 BA in 60 ABs Wish I knew who the ump was because an OVER ump can quickly make an unhittable pitcher become irritated, especially a nibbler and they Yanks having success being patient early in the count, except if they see a FASTBALL.....YU throws lots of deception and long counts might knock him out or just force the fastball to give the hitters a flatter pitch to drive
COOL and unusual wind coming into visitor dugout...normally blows out to right field - pole area
I lean UNDER/Yankees unless I find out who the umpire is
Darvish >> last 24 innings pitched....only 10 hits allowed/ O runs / SO increasing each outing....that is what I look for in taking a pitcher that is trending....it tells me he is having success EVEN with going to strength pitch in his arsenal #3 and #4 (next mlb team will look at his #1 and #2 and how he is having success with them) and deceiving hitters
Personal Play - later game
Zona runline +115 x 1U
- Braxton Garrett is in pinata form
- Zona hit him well!
-Zac Gallen pitches very well vs the Marlins who are a terrible hitting team.....and have one of the 7 worse bullpens while Arizona is not much better but Gallen is a horse on the mound
-Zona putting their play into next gear now that they have leaked a lot of losses in the past 20....on a win streak and vs their rival in the Dodgers!
Trends since last update:
Main Trend (NOT PLAYING RISKY rated Consecutive 2 OVERS > going UNDER) >> they would have gone 1-4 yesterday and are now 5 - 13 recently!!!
DECENT/GOOD rating (are main focus now) - no plays Friday
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend #2:
2 - 0 Friday
9 - 1 past week and continues to be scorching hot (3 OVERS > bet 4th OVER and hitting 90% with uptick in warm weather)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Personal Plays:
3 - 0 Thursday / 0 - 1 Friday
TREND BET suggestions/ratings for today still to come....
Also going to figure out the HOTTEST hitting teams in May (Top 7 ) / WEAKEST hitting teams in May , best teams vs righties, best team vs lefties, best team DAY and best team hitting during night
Trend Games Saturday:
Main Trend:
Oakland-Houston - A's with 2 OVERS in a row - go UNDER 8.5? RISKY = pass!
Trend #2 (Trend 9 - 1 winner in past while):
Balt/CWS both with 3 OVERS in a row > last week 90% of teams in this situation went OVER in the their 4th game
-OVER ump behind the plate - high era/ weather a non factor likely
Cincy vs Dodgers with 3 OVERS in a row - goes OVER 9?
-moderate wind blowing out to left field/ OVER ump behind the plate
SD hosting NYY with 3 consecutive OVERS - goes OVER 7.5?
-umpire or wind are not a factor, but both teams hitting the ball well in MAY
-Dylan Cease hot start is leaking now
-----------------------------------------------
Personal Plays:
Phillies - Colorado OVER 10.5 x1U
Yankees-Padres OVER 7.5 x 1U
Kansas City ML -105 x 1U - Singer excellent lifetime vs Rays and Civale has become a pinata
STATS TO HELP US OUT:
Best Hitting Home teams:
Kansas City .275 > also the best hitting NIGHT game teams (most hit best at night )
> has one of the 7 highest BAs vs Lefties (road or home)
> had the 2nd highest BA in MAY
Houston .271 > highest BA during the DAY games home or road, by far (.286)
> 2nd highest BA vs rightie pitchers
> had the 3rd highest BA in MAY
Colorado .264
----------------------------------------------------------------
BEST HITTING ROAD TEAMS:
San Diego .288
NY Mets .264
Dodgers .263
NY Yankees .260
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
FASTEST RISING BATTING AVERAGES (In May vs April)
Oakland A's - UP .40 pts
Kansas City - UP .38 pts
San Diego - UP .28 pts
NY Yankees - UP .25 pts
SF Giants - UP .24 pts
--------------------------------------------------------------
WORST BULLPENS (so fade these teams vs strong/improved hitting team, especially if they are putting out a weak starter!)
TEXAS rank 32
COLORADO 31
LAA Angels 30
PIRATES 29
TORONTO 28
SF GIANTS 27
TAMPA 26
BEST SITUATIONAL HITTING TEAMS:
Day Games:
Houston .286
Brewers .279
Padres .269
vs. Lefty Pitchers:
Arizona .283
Baltimore .278
LA Angels .274
LA Dodgers .272
vs Rightie Pitchers:
Padres .273
Houston .264
Brewers .263
Yankees .261
-------------------------------------------------------------
WORST SITUATIONAL HITTING TEAMS:
Day Games:
Seattle .204
Cardinals .205
Cincy .209
Tigers .214
vs. Lefty Pitchers:
White Sox .199
Cardinals .204
Oakland .210
Padres .214
Brewers .219
vs. Rightie Pitchers:
Cincy .211
Cubs .220
Twins .220
White Sox .222
Pirates .223
Personal Plays Tonight and 5-7 day record:
Saturday = 2 - 1
3 Day = 5 - 2
Main Trend tonight = 0 - 0
Trend #2 (was 9-1) = 1 - 2
-----------------------------------------
Main Trend Sunday:
Mets > look at their game as an UNDER?
Tampa > UNDER next game?
St. Louis > UNDER next game?
Trend #2:
NONE
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
