NW medium strong wind about 10 -12 mph out to right flagpole
NW wind is a knockdown wind and its cool....but sunny which supports my meteorological thesis ( golfer thinking ) and keep in mind, elevation wise, London is only at 70 ft above sea level similarly to Met stadium.......so I don't think VEGAS is really thinking this through on the total EXCEPT for the shorter fences ....Suarez and Manaea can get away with the high strike due to the wind not blowing it out likely
Sticking to my bets
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Relevant info for this game:
Pole fences are 330 ft
Centrefield fence is 385
NW medium strong wind about 10 -12 mph out to right flagpole
NW wind is a knockdown wind and its cool....but sunny which supports my meteorological thesis ( golfer thinking ) and keep in mind, elevation wise, London is only at 70 ft above sea level similarly to Met stadium.......so I don't think VEGAS is really thinking this through on the total EXCEPT for the shorter fences ....Suarez and Manaea can get away with the high strike due to the wind not blowing it out likely
Main Trend >> very few plays I like but going to play through the season
Trend #2 >> still producing as I will show
** NEW TREND ANALYSIS going to be performed ** > LOTS OF UNDERS and so I am looking into what happens AFTER 1 UNDER occurs following an OVER.....or just in general after an UNDER since May 1 and June 1.
I am thinking I might find a 60% + success rate in one of those DESPITE warmer weather in May and June and I would suspect that will continue through the warmer end of June and July as some teams begin to make their move in the standings and pitching usually allows for such a move, not necessarily always hitting
Main Trend >> very few plays I like but going to play through the season
Trend #2 >> still producing as I will show
** NEW TREND ANALYSIS going to be performed ** > LOTS OF UNDERS and so I am looking into what happens AFTER 1 UNDER occurs following an OVER.....or just in general after an UNDER since May 1 and June 1.
I am thinking I might find a 60% + success rate in one of those DESPITE warmer weather in May and June and I would suspect that will continue through the warmer end of June and July as some teams begin to make their move in the standings and pitching usually allows for such a move, not necessarily always hitting
No Trend Plays Sunday..... @wildwelders, thanks for the best wishes
Cracking my data slowly for UNDER trends and think I am onto something after cracking the first 10 days in May...... there might be a high % situation to COMBINE with weather and umpire to really make it playable and profitable.
This will be my last kick at the can to find something to use for the rest of the season. I am continuing to use these two trends but DUE to the high number of UNDERS in late May and through June, I am looking for a third situation to narrow my focus on games:
1.Main Trend = find a team with 2 consecutive OVERS >> go UNDER next game if the pitching, umpire and weather lineup to look good
- found only 1 MAIN TREND play I liked this whole last 7 days !!
2. Trend #2 = find a team with 3 consecutive OVERS >> go OVER again in the 4th game in a row for about 59% success if the play makes sense to you
3. Trend #3 >>> POTENTIALLY >> showing promise is, after 1 consecutive OVER, go UNDER the next game if you like the matchup or not and after cracking 10 days, its displaying a roughly 60% success so far but I am going to spend today getting through every matchup from May 11 - June 8 yesterday to add to my numbers and confirm it is successful
- what is NOT successful so far but going to keep tracking......AFTER 1 UNDER > the next game goes UNDER is only hitting so far about 35% roughly which means that after an UNDER >> go bet an OVER could be fruitful
PERSONAL BETS:
I am basing 2/3 to 3/4 of my bets on the analysis I uncover and its lead to my first significant winning season in baseball, in a long time and that is because I can put in the time to crack data being retired, having a thirst to find angles in data and having an aging dog to watch until my wife gets home from work. If time, I will role my energy into an analysis of either NBA or NHL this year. I used analytics for the most part, for NCAAF and limited my plays to consider them only with a roughly 65-67% success rate. I will be cracking into it in August
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
No Trend Plays Sunday..... @wildwelders, thanks for the best wishes
Cracking my data slowly for UNDER trends and think I am onto something after cracking the first 10 days in May...... there might be a high % situation to COMBINE with weather and umpire to really make it playable and profitable.
This will be my last kick at the can to find something to use for the rest of the season. I am continuing to use these two trends but DUE to the high number of UNDERS in late May and through June, I am looking for a third situation to narrow my focus on games:
1.Main Trend = find a team with 2 consecutive OVERS >> go UNDER next game if the pitching, umpire and weather lineup to look good
- found only 1 MAIN TREND play I liked this whole last 7 days !!
2. Trend #2 = find a team with 3 consecutive OVERS >> go OVER again in the 4th game in a row for about 59% success if the play makes sense to you
3. Trend #3 >>> POTENTIALLY >> showing promise is, after 1 consecutive OVER, go UNDER the next game if you like the matchup or not and after cracking 10 days, its displaying a roughly 60% success so far but I am going to spend today getting through every matchup from May 11 - June 8 yesterday to add to my numbers and confirm it is successful
- what is NOT successful so far but going to keep tracking......AFTER 1 UNDER > the next game goes UNDER is only hitting so far about 35% roughly which means that after an UNDER >> go bet an OVER could be fruitful
PERSONAL BETS:
I am basing 2/3 to 3/4 of my bets on the analysis I uncover and its lead to my first significant winning season in baseball, in a long time and that is because I can put in the time to crack data being retired, having a thirst to find angles in data and having an aging dog to watch until my wife gets home from work. If time, I will role my energy into an analysis of either NBA or NHL this year. I used analytics for the most part, for NCAAF and limited my plays to consider them only with a roughly 65-67% success rate. I will be cracking into it in August
-Glasnow strong in last few games and holds Yanks lineup to .194 BA over 100 at bats / only 3 HRs also
-Luis Gil has been lights out good > at home 5 - 0 with a 1.05 era and 4 - 1 at night
-umpire unknown as of now .....will check later and make a declaration
-Yanks losers of two will be laser focused on defense, as well as their pitcher ......GLASNOW loves competing and will try to earn a sweep for the Dodgers
-WIND pushing OUT to the fences but diminishing through the game ....might really change this afternoon
Strong lean to YANKEES and UNDER right now but will look into this again later
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Night Game idea:
Dodgers-Yanks UNDER 7.5:
-Glasnow strong in last few games and holds Yanks lineup to .194 BA over 100 at bats / only 3 HRs also
-Luis Gil has been lights out good > at home 5 - 0 with a 1.05 era and 4 - 1 at night
-umpire unknown as of now .....will check later and make a declaration
-Yanks losers of two will be laser focused on defense, as well as their pitcher ......GLASNOW loves competing and will try to earn a sweep for the Dodgers
-WIND pushing OUT to the fences but diminishing through the game ....might really change this afternoon
Strong lean to YANKEES and UNDER right now but will look into this again later
Atlanta - with Max Fried vs Nationals lineup + the Braves hit lefties well and don't wish to go 1 - 3 in this 4 game series!
Cubs UNDER /Cubs win - Shota is real strong in away games and Cincy bats are feeble but have come on.....against a quality leftie, I can see a shutout /less than 3 runs here.....Montas been ok for Reds and good stats vs Cubs
Houston win - Angels with feeble batters and Verlander has a strong history controlling the Angels lineup
Arizona-SD OVER/Padres sweep - Zona has to go with a gas can pitcher and their bullpen has been bullied..... Mazur is a fine young pitcher who will feed off of the Padres mojo that is going on finally at home!! Packed stands also help your focus!
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Games where I think there are strong edges:
Atlanta - with Max Fried vs Nationals lineup + the Braves hit lefties well and don't wish to go 1 - 3 in this 4 game series!
Cubs UNDER /Cubs win - Shota is real strong in away games and Cincy bats are feeble but have come on.....against a quality leftie, I can see a shutout /less than 3 runs here.....Montas been ok for Reds and good stats vs Cubs
Houston win - Angels with feeble batters and Verlander has a strong history controlling the Angels lineup
Arizona-SD OVER/Padres sweep - Zona has to go with a gas can pitcher and their bullpen has been bullied..... Mazur is a fine young pitcher who will feed off of the Padres mojo that is going on finally at home!! Packed stands also help your focus!
By the way....I did play the Yankees UNDER 7.5 x 1U just based on the pitchers.....did not like the fact that I did not know the ump and the wind was blowing out, otherwise it would have normally been a 2U play.....Sunday night games are high focus games for pitchers which also swayed my decision.
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
By the way....I did play the Yankees UNDER 7.5 x 1U just based on the pitchers.....did not like the fact that I did not know the ump and the wind was blowing out, otherwise it would have normally been a 2U play.....Sunday night games are high focus games for pitchers which also swayed my decision.
Obviously....no games played/did not like anything and decided to not look into trend but rather find another....I am working on my UNDERS analysis and should have it ready soon
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Obviously....no games played/did not like anything and decided to not look into trend but rather find another....I am working on my UNDERS analysis and should have it ready soon
My Plays of the Day: Phillies ML x 1U Phillies Under 7.5 x 2U Yankees ML x 1U
Not bad (2 - 1) but UNITS matter to me more .... Phillies had them on the ropes in the 9th and 10th to go UNDER but this Orioles team is gritty and clutch...... these two teams should do well in the playoffs.
2 suckout losses in a row .... Jays push on a total LATE when it looked damn good to go under with only 6 runs going into the 9th but I expect this to happen more (been lucky this year it is not happening as much)
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
My Plays of the Day: Phillies ML x 1U Phillies Under 7.5 x 2U Yankees ML x 1U
Not bad (2 - 1) but UNITS matter to me more .... Phillies had them on the ropes in the 9th and 10th to go UNDER but this Orioles team is gritty and clutch...... these two teams should do well in the playoffs.
2 suckout losses in a row .... Jays push on a total LATE when it looked damn good to go under with only 6 runs going into the 9th but I expect this to happen more (been lucky this year it is not happening as much)
Main Trend: (2 consecutive OVERS go to an UNDER in next game)
SF > facing LAA who are on 4 OVERS also > total to go UNDER = 7.5 ?
-usual wind/ umpire tends to be OVER more 8 - 6
- SANDOVAL had a rough game recently but every game after in this situation is a good one (2 or less runs allowed)
- Giants only hit .179 career vs but, hit lefties very well this year
- Keaton Winn is a gas can...... NO WAY I PLAY THIS UNDER haha
PERSONAL BET: SF/LAA OVER 7.5 x 1U
Interesting stat on Park glare for Hitters:
BALL PARK START TIMES at Oracle Park (today is 1:05 pm west coast time on this list)
Game Schedule Start Games Runs Per Game avg 1:05 PM 9.17 1:10 PM 8.76 6:10 PM 8.26 6:40 PM 10.28 7:05 PM 9.28 7:07 PM 9.19
This is the ONLY trend game because my two trends from the start of the season are contingent on OVERS which is bizarre with warmer weather heating up parts and ground at its peak that we are getting so many UNDERS!
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Have a Trend Play to consider:
Main Trend: (2 consecutive OVERS go to an UNDER in next game)
SF > facing LAA who are on 4 OVERS also > total to go UNDER = 7.5 ?
-usual wind/ umpire tends to be OVER more 8 - 6
- SANDOVAL had a rough game recently but every game after in this situation is a good one (2 or less runs allowed)
- Giants only hit .179 career vs but, hit lefties very well this year
- Keaton Winn is a gas can...... NO WAY I PLAY THIS UNDER haha
PERSONAL BET: SF/LAA OVER 7.5 x 1U
Interesting stat on Park glare for Hitters:
BALL PARK START TIMES at Oracle Park (today is 1:05 pm west coast time on this list)
Game Schedule Start Games Runs Per Game avg 1:05 PM 9.17 1:10 PM 8.76 6:10 PM 8.26 6:40 PM 10.28 7:05 PM 9.28 7:07 PM 9.19
This is the ONLY trend game because my two trends from the start of the season are contingent on OVERS which is bizarre with warmer weather heating up parts and ground at its peak that we are getting so many UNDERS!
Several strong pitchers to start the first few months of the season are 'blowing up' in games lately...... this might be a trend that we see for about 2 more starts and then I expect some correction.
It might be an idea to seek OVERS on games with 7 - 8 runs on the total and perhaps 8.5 runs if the opposing pitcher has a 4.1 era or higher. Remember that aces or 2nd starter in the rotation TEND to give bullpens a breather before they are needed in the 3rd-5th game in a rotation a little more ....so OVERS get a boost with some teams
I think I am going to focus on 3 OVERS in a row trend (TREND #2 I call it) and go for a 4th consecutive and just otherwise watch for the scenario I described above.....I am officially ending the MAIN TREND and do not see any 60% or better trend for UNDERS in the past 2 months after cracking data and actually separating data into 3 -4 week blocks over the past 60 days.....it did not matter
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Several strong pitchers to start the first few months of the season are 'blowing up' in games lately...... this might be a trend that we see for about 2 more starts and then I expect some correction.
It might be an idea to seek OVERS on games with 7 - 8 runs on the total and perhaps 8.5 runs if the opposing pitcher has a 4.1 era or higher. Remember that aces or 2nd starter in the rotation TEND to give bullpens a breather before they are needed in the 3rd-5th game in a rotation a little more ....so OVERS get a boost with some teams
I think I am going to focus on 3 OVERS in a row trend (TREND #2 I call it) and go for a 4th consecutive and just otherwise watch for the scenario I described above.....I am officially ending the MAIN TREND and do not see any 60% or better trend for UNDERS in the past 2 months after cracking data and actually separating data into 3 -4 week blocks over the past 60 days.....it did not matter
Allstar game Total Play? Last 4 games UNDER 7.5 Last OVER this total was 5 years ago OVER 7.5 is >>> 3 - 10 OVER in the past 10 years Don't care about pitching matchups or umpire. I know I will get a low scoring game most likely regardless! Been a while. Time to utilize some profit for a nice spot >> UNDER 7.5 x 2U
Good pattern to support me but the game is regressing from UNDERS more to the mean of 40-60% for either position
Shit haha
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Allstar game Total Play? Last 4 games UNDER 7.5 Last OVER this total was 5 years ago OVER 7.5 is >>> 3 - 10 OVER in the past 10 years Don't care about pitching matchups or umpire. I know I will get a low scoring game most likely regardless! Been a while. Time to utilize some profit for a nice spot >> UNDER 7.5 x 2U
Good pattern to support me but the game is regressing from UNDERS more to the mean of 40-60% for either position
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> they hit Manaea for .380 AB over 50 ABs and lots of HRs and RBi's
@Last2thirst
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