Last2Thirst Season Thread - Totals + some ATS

Main Trend Sunday:

Mets > look at  their game as an UNDER? 

-Logan Webb with under 2.00 era in over 100 ABs vs Mets lineup and only 2 HRs/both pitchers pitching well in last 3

-Manaea with a .274 BA/1 HR in over 60 ABs 

-wind blowing out to left field pole fairly strong

-UNDER umpire

-Sunday games tend to move pretty quickly and be low scoring if right setup and I think we have one here

Rating = 5.9 out of 10 which is DECENT rating to go UNDER 7.5 

Tampa > UNDER next game  7.5? - OVER umpire in Wolcott and I do not trust these pitchers! PASS

St. Louis > UNDER next game 8 runs?

-Sony Gray had a good outing last time and is excellent pitching at home /night

-.269 BA vs Cubs lineup who are not hitting that well at .222 vs righthanders and one of the worst dipping BAs in May

-UNDER umpire with a medium wind blowing out to centre

-ASSAD is excellent away and at night....has been having control problems but does not give up many runs

** CARDS hit .184 and no HRs lifetime vs him in 38 ABs

Rating Decent/Good = 6.4 out of 10 

PERSONAL PLAY > UNDER 8 runs -105  x1.5U

Trend #2:

NONE

Personal Plays Tonight + 5-7 day record:

Saturday = 2 - 1

Sunday = 1 - 0

4 Day Record = 6 - 2  (+4 Units) ....will make a play using analytical perceived advantage (no coin flip picks!)

Main Trend tonight (DECENT or better rating) = 2 - 0  tonight and 3-4 day record

Trend #2  > last 7 - 10 days =  ( 10 - 3) = 0 - 0 tonight

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Monday Trend Play Potential:

Main Trend:

NONE

Trend #2:

NONE

Glaring Matchup Advantages:

Houston @ Seattle 

-Houston 2nd best team BA vs right handed pitching

-Houston 3rd highest BA in May

-Houston 6 - 4 last 10 games

-Seattle with 3rd lowest home batting record

-Seattle with a 4 - 6 record in last 10 and first game back from long road trip (<< always fade material)

- Seattle is 6 - 4 head to head in last 10 matchups 

In either Houston or Seattle, the OVER 8  has gone  > 3 - 5 - 2 (Pushes)

Hot Pitchers:

Bassitt Toronto        2- 1 (under 2.5 era)

Joe Ryan Minn         2 - 1 (under 2.5 era)

Austin Gomber  Colorado  1 - 0 ( under 2.00 era)

Cold Pitchers:

Nick Nastrini - CWS   0 - 3 (almost 12.00 era)

Blake Snell - Giants   0 - 2  (over 12.00 era)

Justin Steele - Cubs  0 - 2 ( > 8.00 era)

Bryce Miller - SEA   0 - 3  (almost 6.00 era)

Definitely taking Houston tonight ML x 1U

Tuesday Trend Play Potential:

Main Trend:

Both Atlanta-Wash with 2 consecutive OVERS > expect an UNDER 8.5?

Cleveland on 2 consecutive OVERS > expect an UNDER 10.5?

Trend #2:

NONE

Been having some issues lately with Runline plays but giving it another shot with an obvious pitching mismatch and hitting mismatch:

Braves runline -1.5 x 2U .... upping this bet after losing a soft Houston team last night taking a night off when they could have stomped a tired Mariner team

-Jake Irvin has given up 6 hits in 13 ABs to this Brave lineup....do you think they will discuss his tendencies as it seems they already have? To face him for 4-5 innings should bare fruit here as Irvin struggle in night games

- Max Fried has held Nationals to a .171 BA in 76 ABs with no HRs given up.....that is stellar!

Brave bats picking up....Nationals one of the worst hitting teams at night and also vs lefties

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Main Trend ratings:

Braves - Nationals = not DECENT for an UNDER 8.5 so lay off with wind blowing out to centre-left

Clev - Colorado = RISKY .... huge OVER umpire and warm air 

Another runline grinder 

Fade my runlines UNDER and the opposite side....you will hit 60+% ..... 0 - 0 halfway through the game

Since last update:

Saturday = 2 - 1

Sunday = 1 - 0

Monday = 0 - 1

Today = 1 - 0  >> Braves runline -1.5 x 2U  ...nice late comeback and push

6 Day Record = 7 - 3  (+5 Units)

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Main Trend this week (DECENT or better rating) = 2 - 0  this ....been tough finding a decent play

Trend #2  > last 7 - 10 days =  ( 10 - 3) = 0 - 0 tonight

Trend Plays for Wednesday:

Main Trend:

Boston @ Baltimore > both teams with 2 consecutive OVERS > go UNDER 8?

-Burnes vs K. Crawford.....good chance here

-Burnes with .152 BA only against the Orioles and 1 HR over 46 ABs

- Burnes beat Boston earlier in the season easily and pitches well at home

-Orioles hit Crawford much better @ .265 avg and slightly more ABs /3 HRs given up at short field home park

-Crawford gave up no runs in his only outing vs Orioles and is excellent in away games

DECENT rating on this for sure > UNDER 8  with a rating of 6.0 out of 10 ... I would try to get this before it turns to UNDER 7.5 but even then, I think its a lighter decent pick

waiting for more results to add to this chance tomorrow.....stay tuned

Clev + Col > went OVER tonight and that puts CLEV into a 2 OVER MAIN TREND play ........but, it puts the ROCKIES in a 3 OVER TREND #2 .......

 And I won't do a CROSSOVER Play ever 

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Glaring Matchup Advantages:

Pitt @ Detroit

- Detroit low BA in day games and home games >> Pirates recently took advantage of a cold hitting Cub  team on the road by win 3 of 4 in Chicago

-Pitt's day game BA higher than avg and BA on the rise in May

St.L @ Cincy

-the two lowest DAY GAME Batting avgs in baseball square off....Cincy is also very low vs righties if decided on a pitcher/one of the lowest home BAs in baseball

Ariz @ Texas

-Zona one of the lowest BAs vs a righty pitcher

Phil @ SF

-SF with one of the 3 highest day game BAs in baseball

Mia @ SD

-Padres with one of the worst BAs vs left handed pitching/ but with one of the highest in DAY GAMES

-Mia with one of the lowest BAs on the road and now have to face YU DARVISH

LAD @ NYM

-Dodgers with one of the highest BAs vs left handers and one of the highest BAs on the road!

-Mets only hit .209 at home!

 Oak@ TB

-Oakland only hits .195 in night games and .206 in away games 

Wash @ Atl

-Nationals with one of the 5 weakest BAs in night games 

KC @ Minny

-KC with one of the 2 highest BAs in night games

-Minny only hits .220 vs righties

Tor @ CWS

-CWS one of the worst BAs at night and versus righties 

-Toronto with one of the lowest AWAY BAs in baseball

Cubs @ Milw

-Brewers face the toughest lefty in baseball tomorrow and they only hit .219 vs lefties/ but hit well at home

-Cubs hit righties for only a .222 avg

Yanks @ LAA

-Yankees with one of the two highest ROAD BAs in baseball

Hou @ SEA

-Astros with 2nd highest BA vs righties

-Sea only hit .217 at home

GL with your decisions 

Main Trend went 1 - 0 on a DECENT play with Bos/Balt going UNDER ( << hard to believe the total dropped to Under 7 by game time!!)

Trend Play possibilities today:

Main Trend:

NONE

Trend #2: - haven't had a chance to play in a while with many UNDERS...

Detroit with 3 OVERS in a row > should continue with an OVER 7.5 Thursday? 

- Red Sox hit Flaherty for .300 lifetime

-Pivetta has a bit of a pinata like effect when pitching at home

-this Tigers lineup hit him for .353 in 17 ABs including 2 HRs!!

-wind is muted - slightly blowing out so not dense air and HRs are quite possible 

LIKE THIS PLAY > OVER 7.5 x 1U personally betting 

Tomorrow:

Pitt also with 3 OVERS in a row > will watch out for their next matchup and play

Cubs with 3 OVERS in a row > will watch out for their next matchup and play

Brewers with 3 OVERS in a row > will watch out for their next matchup and play

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Matchup Advantages: (went 5 - 3 on definitive advantages last night )

Matchup Advantages: (went 5 - 3 on definitive advantages last night )

Arizona @ NYM - Mets hit terribly at home to a .209 BA

-Gallen has held them to a .220 BA and only 2 HRs in 80 BAs

- Scott is a rookie pitcher vs a strong batting lineup

- Zona hits righties for a low average however ........UNDER might be worth a look here but 7 runs is too low?

NYY @ LAA

-interesting contrarian play here....RODON gets walloped lifetime vs Angels lineup.....Sandoval with a .154 BA in 54 ABs and only given up 1 HR vs Yankees

-fade OVER but wind is blowing out and take home team?? Contrarian plays are good value sometimes playing them

Taking a night off.....

Last night:

0 -1 Personal on Thursday

0 - 1 Trend #2

0 - 0 Main Trend

These plays can be considered for TREND #2 (carry overs who were on a flight day yesterday):

Pitt also with 3 OVERS in a row > will watch out for their next matchup and play

Cubs with 3 OVERS in a row > will watch out for their next matchup and play >>> WENT OVER THIS AFTERNOON

Brewers with 3 OVERS in a row > will watch out for their next matchup and play

SIMULATED RESULTS Ratings for MAIN TREND and Trend #2: -  JUNE 1 UPDATE

 April 21 -  June 1 SIMULATED RESULTS Ratings for MAIN TREND:

rated: Risky: >>> stopped keeping track because it went below .500 after warm weather appeared!!!

rated: Decent (58 - 63% likely statistically, to win your bet):  =  13 - 4 

>>  this category went a scorching hot   7  - 1 over the last 2 weeks

rated: Good (64 -70 % likely statistically, to win your bet): =  3 - 4

>> very few rated this way in May!

OVERALL recently since officially counting 31 - 25 - 1  in this thread ( after April 21) using RISKY, DECENT and GOOD rated plays

OVERALL Since start of season now =  73 - 47 - 2 (60.10% which is dropping!)  >> when a team goes OVER for 2 games in a row, take UNDER the 3rd game

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TREND #2 

Over the past 15 days =   12 - 5    (will not play games that crossover with Main Trend, because they are opposite)

Since discovery of this new trend:  = 41 - 28   to go OVER for the 4th game in a row, after 3 previous OVERS 

Success rate = 59.40 %

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PERSONAL PLAYS RECORD:

PAST 8 DAYS:

ATS/Sides = 6 - 3   (+4 U)

Parlay   = 1 - 0       (+1 U)

SEASON NOW:

Side/Totals  39 - 25  (+ 12.0 Units) = 60.93%

Parlay 3 - 3  (+0.3 U)

Game Edges Saturday - Pitcher or Hitters:

Pitt@ Toronto

-Jays winners or 4 in a row

-Jays  BA up .11 pts in May > strongest at home and day games

-Keller for Pitt has had his team win 4 in a row when pitching/ 3 - 0  with 1.45 era > much better than Kikuchi

TB@ Baltimore

-Orioles winners of 7 out of 8 past games

-Bradish pitching very well for the Orioles and is 1 - 0 with 1.69 past 3 games/ Bradley has righted the leaky ship lately

-lifetime, Bradley has better stats vs opposing lineup than Bradish 

-Orioles hit best at home /day games.... but their May BA is way down by .20 pts 

-TB the same with their batting exactly

FAINT SMELL OF AN UNDER HERE when looking at everything + weather /umps

Oakland @ Braves

-Chris Sale is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball and 3 - 0 with a 0.42 avg lately

-A's hitting has improved by .30 pts in May but still only hit lefties to .211 avg

-in 16 ABs, the A's lineup has hit Sale only for .062 BA 

-Atlanta's BA has dropped over 30 pts in May

-Aaron Brooks is a mediocre pitchers but good era 

SMELLS LIKE AN UNDER and BRAVES RUNLINE TO ME - PERSONAL PLAY: Braves UNDER 8 x 1U

Texas @ Miami

-Ryan Weathers is 1- 0 with 0.42 era in last 3

-Rangers BA dropped by over 10 pts in May and hit lefties worse than righties

- Lorenzon gets hit by Marlins for a high avg and many HRs and faces a hot hitting Marlins team lately

- Marlins had one of the worst teams in April but now have raised BA by more than .25 pts and hit righties very well

STRONG LEAN TO MARLINS here....

Detroit@ Boston

- Reese Olson pitching extremely well and is 1 - 1 with 0.53 era lately/Criswell for Boston has not pitched well

-Red Sox strangely hit poorer at home and their BA is in freefall in May/ Tigers BA up almost 20 pts in May

STRONG LEAN Tigers....

The rest of the afternoon games are meh.....might find something in the night games later

NO TREND games in the afternoon except one MAIN TREND and it was RISKY!

Sunday Advantages + Trend Play Options:

Pitt @ Toronto

- Bassitt holds Pitt lineup to a .091 BA in 44 ABs with no HRs/RBIs

PERSONAL PLAY > Jays runline -1.5 x HALF U  +1.25

Arizona @ NYM

- Arizona is the best hitting team vs left handed pitching @.277 

-Quintana puts the ball in play and gives up runs

-Zona just scorched Manaea who is the NYM best left hander......now they face their worse with same arm angle 2 games in a row..........ZONA hits Quintana for a .344 BA over 90 ABs  

-Mets hit terrible at home and their May BA is dropping

-Ortiz is the umpire and he favours the road team to win most of the time and more runs

Personal Plays: Arizona ML x HALF U  

                          Arizona OVER 8 x  1U

Trend #2 - 3 OVERS in a row > play 4th OVER:

San Diego @ KC OVER 8 runs  

- good umpire for this and strong wind blowing out to left field

-KC lineup hits King well for a .300 BA in 30 ABs

Yanks @ SF to go OVER 8 

- Snell not very good this year and Yanks know him......Cortes is terrible on the road

-both teams hit very well in this situation

Might discuss another play later..... BOL 

Main Trend:

Sunday results:

Me =    2 - 1  (+1 U)

Two Day = 2 - 2 (E)

Trends:

Sat/Sunday 1 - 1   (Trend #2)

                  0 - 0  (Main Trend)

Trend Plays Today:

Main Trend:

none decent or good

Trend #2:

Mets @ Wash on 3 OVERS in a row and gaining them, despite having a terrible BA in their own park....they hit much better on the road!

-OVER 8 pays +100

-both pitchers get hit for high avgs and HRs on less than 50 ABs.... wind blowing moderately out to left field

Tigers @ Texas on 3 OVERS but have their best pitcher on the mound and a hot Eovaldi...... OVER 7.5 +100 is offered

-both pitchers get hit well like the Mets/Wash line 

SF@Arizona with both teams on 3 OVERS ....no pitcher yet announced for SF > LINE is OVER 9

-Ryne Nelson with 6 era for Zona >> he has had one good outing in his past 5 and has an over 8 era at home

Best Matchup/Total:

1. SD @ LAA..... Tyler Anderson pitching well/Padres don't hit lefties but good record on the road and Matt Waldron been better last few games vs a terrible LAA hitting lineup LEAN UNDER 8.5 .... COOL air tonight but blowing out....sinking wind  

2. Brewers @Phillies .... 2 hot teams with 2 excellent bullpens and Wheeler on the mound with a .226 era vs Brewers....wind blowing in ....kind of feels like a good UNDER 8.5 opportunity here.... PHILLLIES are 24.9 @home!! 

-smells like 4-3 / 5-2 kind of game

PERSONAL PLAY: UNDER 8.5 Phillies x 1U

Trend Plays Tuesday:

Main Trend (Decent or Good rated):

NONE

Trend #2:

Atlanta @ Boston who are on 3 consecutive OVERS > trend says go OVER 8  -115

- Fried vs Crawford who has gone wonky with 6.75 era in last 3 and struggling at home

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Pitching hot:

Corbin Burnes Balt

Luis Gil    NYY

Cris Sanchez  Phillies

Jessie Luzardo  Mia

Not:

Jared Jones    Pitt

Bailey Ober   Minn

George Kirby Sea

Frankie Montas Cinci

Chris Flexen   CWS

My Play of the Day: Baltimore Orioles runline -1.5 +100 x 1U ....would slam this if better record using runline

-one of the hottest pitchers and clutch teams ....facing one of the worst bullpens with a bullpen starter 

UPDATE: - 4 day

Today results:

Me = 1 - 0  (+1U)

Trend #2 = 1 - 0

Yesterday:

Me = 1 - 0 (+1U)

Trend #2 = 1 - 2

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Four Day Me = 4 - 2 (+2U)

Trends: Four Day =  3 - 3   (Trend #2)

                             =  0 - 0  (Main Trend) << good ones are rare now it seems

Wednesday Thoughts- Trends:

Cincy @ Colorado

-only 5 of the last 14 Rockies home games have gone OVER this number

-Dakota Hudson has a .562 BA vs 3 hitters on the Reds....but is pitching better lately

-Ashcroft is good on the road and afternoon for era

-strong wind blowing in from centre right field 13-15 mph 

LIKING THE UNDER 11.5 as I feel one pitched might get lit up, but the other won't and we are looking at a 8-3 kind of ballgame at most 

PERSONAL PLAY UNDER 11.5 x HALF U

Main Trend Play / like it Personally too:

Baltimore @ Jays 2 OVERS for Orioles to now go UNDER 8 

- Suarez is outstanding in the bullpen but even better now as a starter for Baltimore

-Berrios with ok numbers vs Orioles and better lately after a great start/funk period and now back on track

-Rate this UNDER on trend as DECENT 5.9 out of 10

ME > :  Orioles +110 x 1U for the sweep / UNDER 8 x HALF U also

STRONG LEAND to OVER 8 in the Padres-Angels....both pitchers been gas cans, wind is blowing out and Padres murder the ball on the road

Taking day off.....beautiful weather !!

Saturday Play #1

Phillies runline -1.5 +100 x 2U > they hit Manaea for .380 AB over 50 ABs and lots of HRs and RBi's

Mets are terrible hitting at home and now face Suarez who has a strong record vs Mets lineup in over 100 ABs....

- if not certain about it, ASK YOURSELF, why is the TOTAL OVER 10???

Since the wind is strong out to right field corner, I will take UNDER 10 x 1U with 2 lefties on the mound

Keep in mind this game is being played in London England....cheers....hence the high total 

Mets with 3 wins in a row and hitting the ball hard.....but.....Phillies played laser focus pitching and scoring with 3 wins in a row in games under 6 runs per game....

' Meet the new boss Mets, same as the ole boss'

Ahhh...thank you . I have not laid it yet. 

Let me check the dimensions and weather