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Posted: #326

Quote Originally Posted by odieo:



I think you are right BURG - a lot of shaded 6.5's so far -  not sure if there is a lot of value playing anything under 7 or 7.5 for that matter - too much room for error in the bullpen.  The article says the totals are "generally 7.5 - 9"  and while it doesn't say it is an official rule perhaps it is a good guideline to go by.

I layed off the Hudson/Lincecum Under this weekend cause I just didn't see much value there - so if both pitchers give up a run or two and throw 7 strong -  your putting a lot of faith in the bullpens not to give up a couple more.  Played TB/TOR U8 which matched up the #22 and #23 pitchers in the ratings and it covered without a sweat as Shields threw a gem and Romero pitched well too - felt there was a lot more value in that play as you leave a little more room for error in the bullpen....especially this time of year....

I agree also Odieo. Under 6.5 is hard to fade, and it seems like it has been getting beat up pretty bad this year. One of the things we'll find out by tracking this system is what areas to tweek so we can improve our record. We might need to look for the 6.5's and bet OVER!

 
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Posted: #327
Thanks to odieo and VLR for the double checks.
 
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Posted: #328
Phillies and SD were money in the bank easily for all 4 games at under 6.5 or 7.  No Brainer!!  Also lows now on WSOX as they are terrible.  How low can these teams go????
 
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Posted: #329

If Ricky Nolasco is not in the Top 20 for NPERA, but he is in the Top 20 for ERA (he is 15th), do you still make the Dodgers a play?

Just wondering.

Philly

 
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Posted: #330
Quote Originally Posted by PJBelle:

If Ricky Nolasco is not in the Top 20 for NPERA, but he is in the Top 20 for ERA (he is 15th), do you still make the Dodgers a play?

Just wondering.

Philly

Yes, we are using NPERA for this system.

 
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Posted: #331
Tough bottom of the ninth loss for LAD in FL.

Looking like 2-2 tonight as long as Colorado holds on.

GL
 
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Posted: #332
just track his picks...if it's a play, then he will surely take it for free in contests after posting this...
 
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Posted: #333
Quote Originally Posted by drose1:

in fact, if this does really work (which I highly doubt), I'd call you an idiot for even sharing it

An Idiot for sharing??  What is this top secret information or something LMFAO ....don't bet against streaking or trending teams, ok nice point.  Take Dogs, ok nice point as well, don't bet against top 20 pitches, ok another great point.

All very great points for evaluating the bases night in and night out...

WHAT SECRETS ARE YOU REFERRING TO...YOU SEEM  LIKE THE IDIOT TO ME.  By the way buddy: D Rose will NEVER win a championship.  He is a ball hog, reminds me of a young Steph Marbury that can't shoot.


 
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Posted: #334
Quote Originally Posted by POIZENIV:

Plays for Monday 4/25:

Washington        +114          $18

LA Dodgers        +135          $18

Colorado            +119            $18

ATL / SD     under 6.5          $19.80

1-3 for the day, 13-25 overall / bankroll $1400.32

 
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Posted: #335
4/25 Results:

WASH
LAD
COL
ATL/SD U6.5

Dodgers loss was brutal....Gotta keep firing.
 
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Posted: #336

Plays for Tuesday 4/26:

Chicago Sox        +127        $18

Pittsburgh           +117        $18

Cincinnati           +106         $18

 

 
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Posted: #337
using just those simple rules will not win you money.  you have to look a little deeper.  my system is similiar but has a few more factors involved.  ive been watching this thread and people are making this to be alot harder than it really is.  i dont post my plays all the time like alot do simply because i dont have time and it really doesnt benefit me too.  my two picks today are Detroit and St Louis.  my advice is to pick a predetermined amount you want to win for the week (and make it reasonable) and once you reach it, stop betting the rest of the week.  it seems having a rest for a few days from betting helps.
 
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Posted: #338
Odie's Official System plays for 4/26:

PIT*
CWS
CIN
SD*

Lotta Top 20 pitchers throwing tonight.

*Analysis of Borderline Plays:

PIT - Matt Cain sitting at #32 in the ratings makes this a borderline play for me.  His last start @ Colorado he gave up 6 ER in less than 5 innings...other than that he has been stellar.  Look for him to bounce back against the Pirates - This may be a play to lay off, and I probably will.

SD - Jurrjens making his 3rd start for the Braves tonight and first two have been very good.  If he had enough innings under his belt he would be in the top 20. - SD is barely in plus money with Harang on the hill for him.  A tough one to lay off with Harang at #6, but I think its the right move - if anything give a look at the O/U, but its 6.5 and juiced on the under side.  Not a whole lot of value there IMO.

Looks like a small card for me tonight with just CWS and CIN.  4 Official Plays for the system though.

As always play 'em as you like!




 
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Posted: #339
Quote Originally Posted by madh4ttr:

using just those simple rules will not win you money.  you have to look a little deeper.  my system is similiar but has a few more factors involved.  ive been watching this thread and people are making this to be alot harder than it really is.  i dont post my plays all the time like alot do simply because i dont have time and it really doesnt benefit me too.  my two picks today are Detroit and St Louis.  my advice is to pick a predetermined amount you want to win for the week (and make it reasonable) and once you reach it, stop betting the rest of the week.  it seems having a rest for a few days from betting helps.


I agree - that is why I am trying to take it a step further with the "borderline" plays.
 
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Posted: #340
One trend I found this year you may want to track is play over the total of 9.5 or 10 runs if the favored team is -150 or higher. This trend is 12-4 so far this year. Today was a winner in texas game, yesterday was a loser with yanks. These scenario's usually involve yanks,rangers and redsox. Home team is usually favored.
 
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Posted: #341
Quote Originally Posted by POIZENIV:

1-3 for the day, 13-25 overall / bankroll $1400.32

Are you up any cash so far? what are the cash results? ty in advance.

 
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Posted: #342
well my 2 plays I posted for yesterday went 0-2.  Still up pretty good this short year.  Two plays for Wed are Florida and Cleveland
 
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Posted: #343
4/26 Results:

PIT
CWS
CIN
SD

1-4 sucky, but if you took out my borderline plays (which I did) you went 1-1 for a plus day.....

Lets burn some more money....
 
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Posted: #344
Official System Plays for 4/27:

CIN
PIT
CWS*
BOS/BAL U8
TBR*

*Borderline Plays:

CWS - Will probably eliminate this one.  Yanks rarely get swept at home and Colon has pitched very well and would be in top 20 if had enough innings pitched.

TBR - NOT AN OFFICIAL PLAY.  MIN on a 3 game Win streak however its not too often in this system you get a dog with a top 20 pitcher (Wade Davis) so I will be playing them.

As always....play 'em as you like!

 
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Posted: #345
CIN up 3 in the early going - lets have a breakthrough day here!
 
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Posted: #346
Quote Originally Posted by Plisskin76:

Are you up any cash so far? what are the cash results? ty in advance.

Down $200. Started with a hypothetical $1600 bankroll. What I'm doing is tracking plays for this system for a couple of weeks to see what the results are.

 
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Posted: #347
Quote Originally Posted by POIZENIV:

Plays for Tuesday 4/26:

Chicago Sox        +127       $18    

Pittsburgh           +117        $18    

Cincinnati           +106         $18    

 

1-2 for the day, -$13.14.

Overall 14-27 / Bankroll $1387.18

 
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Posted: #348

Plays for Wednesday 4/27:

Cincinnati           +136       $17

Pittsburgh           +106       $17

Bos/Balt         under 8      $18.70

Good Luck today

 
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Posted: #349
Quote Originally Posted by POIZENIV:

Plays for Wednesday 4/27:

Cincinnati           +136       $17

Pittsburgh           +106       $17

Bos/Balt         under 8      $18.70

Good Luck today

Thanks Poizen, looks like a sweep today!
 
 
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Posted: #350
Quote Originally Posted by POIZENIV:

Plays for Wednesday 4/27:

Cincinnati           +136       $17               +23.12

Pittsburgh           +106       $17               +18.02

Bos/Balt         under 8      $18.70         -18.70

Good Luck today

2-1 today, +$22.44

Overall record 16-28 / Bankroll $1409.62

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