Ok according to this system I have placed someon the cards against my own plotting, there are only two in todays schedule so if its 50/50 I like cards more then cubs on the road...
also like LA/Tampa -7.5
Tampa and Philly parlay hardly ever do it but why risk 2 to win one on Philly or risk 1.5 to win one on Tampa, risk 1 to win 1.4..
bol everyone
Quote Originally Posted by zeebestpicks:
Ok according to the dog system there are two games today 4-30-11 basball games Cards and the Cubs
Cards @ Atl +130 Atl at home second game following a loss with the cards starting pitcher stinking it up lately??? I would lean towards Atl here???
the other game is cubs at arizona +115 cubs finally win one after losing four in a row so it qualifys... no way no how am I putting a nickel on the cubs here.. I will continue to monitor and look into this but no plays today for me here...
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Ok according to this system I have placed someon the cards against my own plotting, there are only two in todays schedule so if its 50/50 I like cards more then cubs on the road...
also like LA/Tampa -7.5
Tampa and Philly parlay hardly ever do it but why risk 2 to win one on Philly or risk 1.5 to win one on Tampa, risk 1 to win 1.4..
bol everyone
Quote Originally Posted by zeebestpicks:
Ok according to the dog system there are two games today 4-30-11 basball games Cards and the Cubs
Cards @ Atl +130 Atl at home second game following a loss with the cards starting pitcher stinking it up lately??? I would lean towards Atl here???
the other game is cubs at arizona +115 cubs finally win one after losing four in a row so it qualifys... no way no how am I putting a nickel on the cubs here.. I will continue to monitor and look into this but no plays today for me here...
what about toronto?,what about clevland? these 2 plays qulify also
I do not consider a play unless the pitchers in the game have at least three starts under their belts. I have been consistant with this throughout the thread.
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS:
what about toronto?,what about clevland? these 2 plays qulify also
I do not consider a play unless the pitchers in the game have at least three starts under their belts. I have been consistant with this throughout the thread.
THESE ARE THE CORRECT NUMBERS USING THIS SYSTEM SO FAR BASED ON A STARTING BET OF $50 AND REDUCED OR INCREASED BASED ON WINNING AND LOSING AT .025% OF TOTAL BANKROLL WHICH STARTED AT 2000 CURRENT BET NOW STANDS AT 38.18
GAMES 54-68 -209.36
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THESE ARE THE CORRECT NUMBERS USING THIS SYSTEM SO FAR BASED ON A STARTING BET OF $50 AND REDUCED OR INCREASED BASED ON WINNING AND LOSING AT .025% OF TOTAL BANKROLL WHICH STARTED AT 2000 CURRENT BET NOW STANDS AT 38.18
odieo you seem to be skipping several plays ,i guess its due to several pitchers that are usually in top 20 are not ,but be careful cherry pickin system plays,although i agree you have to make adjustments, ive been using this system since 03, the first month usually sucks, so far this year i dont have exact numbers but totals have been losers big time especially on the unders of 6.5/6
anyway good luck buddy
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according to my stats todays sagarin plays
atl/stl under7.5
nats
astros
padres
marlins
red sox
orioles
jays
a's
odieo you seem to be skipping several plays ,i guess its due to several pitchers that are usually in top 20 are not ,but be careful cherry pickin system plays,although i agree you have to make adjustments, ive been using this system since 03, the first month usually sucks, so far this year i dont have exact numbers but totals have been losers big time especially on the unders of 6.5/6
odieo you seem to be skipping several plays ,i guess its due to several pitchers that are usually in top 20 are not ,but be careful cherry pickin system plays,although i agree you have to make adjustments, ive been using this system since 03, the first month usually sucks, so far this year i dont have exact numbers but totals have been losers big time especially on the unders of 6.5/6
anyway good luck buddy
Had to do it early this morning b4 golf only did the early games, but Red Sox a play? they're not even a dog in my book. Plus they are going up against King Felix who is now #13 in ratings and Mariners on a 5 game win streak! Not sure how you came to that one as a play....did u mean mariners?
Also - why no CHC? they opened under 150 - match all other criteria. they should be a play.
I think cherry picking these plays is essential to getting an even greater edge. If you look back I have been on the right end more often than not. Great example was TOR yesterday. Drabek was obviously going to get slammed....and he did. Should have been more runs but the Yanks left the bases loaded with 1 out after they pulled Drabek and the pen shut them down, but they still got the win.
I think you're in for some hurt with this system if you are just blind firing when there really is no reason to.
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS:
according to my stats todays sagarin plays
atl/stl under7.5
nats
astros
padres
marlins
red sox
orioles
jays
a's
odieo you seem to be skipping several plays ,i guess its due to several pitchers that are usually in top 20 are not ,but be careful cherry pickin system plays,although i agree you have to make adjustments, ive been using this system since 03, the first month usually sucks, so far this year i dont have exact numbers but totals have been losers big time especially on the unders of 6.5/6
anyway good luck buddy
Had to do it early this morning b4 golf only did the early games, but Red Sox a play? they're not even a dog in my book. Plus they are going up against King Felix who is now #13 in ratings and Mariners on a 5 game win streak! Not sure how you came to that one as a play....did u mean mariners?
Also - why no CHC? they opened under 150 - match all other criteria. they should be a play.
I think cherry picking these plays is essential to getting an even greater edge. If you look back I have been on the right end more often than not. Great example was TOR yesterday. Drabek was obviously going to get slammed....and he did. Should have been more runs but the Yanks left the bases loaded with 1 out after they pulled Drabek and the pen shut them down, but they still got the win.
I think you're in for some hurt with this system if you are just blind firing when there really is no reason to.
MIL* PIT* BAL - Dog pitcher(Guthrie) in top 20...great value IMO.
****: MIL - Jurrjens starting for ATL and he has pitched great thus far. His current numbers put him in the top 20 he just doesn't have enough innings. Gallardo has been pretty bad his last few starts. Look for ATL to jump on him early and give Jurrjens a nice lead to work with. Will be laying off this play for sure.
PIT - Harang sitting at #22 in ratings. Actually like this play a lot though. Pirates played well in COL and Harang may very well be coming back to earth after a very hot start. McDonald also put up a solid start in his last outing for the Pirates and @ +140 i think there is a lot of value in this play.
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System Plays for 5/2:
MIL* PIT* BAL - Dog pitcher(Guthrie) in top 20...great value IMO.
****: MIL - Jurrjens starting for ATL and he has pitched great thus far. His current numbers put him in the top 20 he just doesn't have enough innings. Gallardo has been pretty bad his last few starts. Look for ATL to jump on him early and give Jurrjens a nice lead to work with. Will be laying off this play for sure.
PIT - Harang sitting at #22 in ratings. Actually like this play a lot though. Pirates played well in COL and Harang may very well be coming back to earth after a very hot start. McDonald also put up a solid start in his last outing for the Pirates and @ +140 i think there is a lot of value in this play.
Yanks as road dogs is so tasty too....verlander in top 20 though. Would be more confident playing them than MIL though....not gonna fire on either though.
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Yanks as road dogs is so tasty too....verlander in top 20 though. Would be more confident playing them than MIL though....not gonna fire on either though.
Yanks as road dogs is so tasty too....verlander in top 20 though. Would be more confident playing them than MIL though....not gonna fire on either though.
Tasty indeed! Anytime I can get the NYY's as a dog its a gimme. Value here at +116. BOL in todays games!
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Quote Originally Posted by odieo:
Yanks as road dogs is so tasty too....verlander in top 20 though. Would be more confident playing them than MIL though....not gonna fire on either though.
Tasty indeed! Anytime I can get the NYY's as a dog its a gimme. Value here at +116. BOL in todays games!
as for system record from 03i cant even record keep for this ytd, nor do i have the discipline to maintain a 2,000 dollar bankroll for this system only making unit based plays, however i am very wrapped up in this system ,and use it as a weapon in my handicapping arsenal ,you had questions about boston yesterday well according my latest sagarin rating king felix wasnt in top 20 yesterday pre game although i missed the 5 game win steak didnt know how but good for me anywayi dont cherry pk plays believe me it can get tricky when a game open a pk and the one team becomes favored ,a game like this is on fence and you have to pk ur poisen kinda like nats/wash game today opened a pk but sf now a dog ,and the cubs were +156 when i looked on the overnite line yesterday at betjamaica so i considered them a no play
today is tricky as i mentoined the wash/nats game is a game on the fence so im gonna call it a no play since opened a pick
another game is the milw/atl game jair has been money but dosent have enough innings to qualify,on the flip side gallardo pitches well atagainst atlanta and him+ is great value, but anothe sytem fence game for me i say no play for system ,but i like under in this spot
oh i just noticed we have the bos/laa game that opened pk but now has jered weaver +101 could be a play
last nite you could get rangers+100 now there -105,rangers are play in my book
other plays
baltimore , pittsburgh, det/nyy under overnite had 8.5 its now 8
these totals as i noted so far have been not good according to my calculations this year worse than any year regarding this system tread carefully w/colon tigers could light his ass up
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great day yesterday for my plays 7-2
as for system record from 03i cant even record keep for this ytd, nor do i have the discipline to maintain a 2,000 dollar bankroll for this system only making unit based plays, however i am very wrapped up in this system ,and use it as a weapon in my handicapping arsenal ,you had questions about boston yesterday well according my latest sagarin rating king felix wasnt in top 20 yesterday pre game although i missed the 5 game win steak didnt know how but good for me anywayi dont cherry pk plays believe me it can get tricky when a game open a pk and the one team becomes favored ,a game like this is on fence and you have to pk ur poisen kinda like nats/wash game today opened a pk but sf now a dog ,and the cubs were +156 when i looked on the overnite line yesterday at betjamaica so i considered them a no play
today is tricky as i mentoined the wash/nats game is a game on the fence so im gonna call it a no play since opened a pick
another game is the milw/atl game jair has been money but dosent have enough innings to qualify,on the flip side gallardo pitches well atagainst atlanta and him+ is great value, but anothe sytem fence game for me i say no play for system ,but i like under in this spot
oh i just noticed we have the bos/laa game that opened pk but now has jered weaver +101 could be a play
last nite you could get rangers+100 now there -105,rangers are play in my book
other plays
baltimore , pittsburgh, det/nyy under overnite had 8.5 its now 8
these totals as i noted so far have been not good according to my calculations this year worse than any year regarding this system tread carefully w/colon tigers could light his ass up
unlike yesterday todays sagarin plays pretty clearcut read and weep
giants/marlins/pirates/cubs/bos/laa u7/clevland
BOL
those are the exact plays I have BURG - you are right very clear cut today.
OFFICIAL SYSTEM PLAYS for 5/3:
SF FLA PITT CHC LAA/BOS U7*
**:
LAA/BOS U7 Haren vs. Lester : I absolutely HATE this play and here's why - Yes Haren and Lester both rated in top 20 in Sagarin ratings, but these two teams just played a series in LA a week ago. This pitching matchup was had on the 22nd and they pushed the 7 O/U as BOS won 4-3.
Both starting pitchers had very good starts so my theory is that both pitchers will approach each lineup the same way they did so effectively a week ago. Major league hitters are really good at what they do. The last time they faced these pitchers is still fresh in their minds and they WILL make the necessary adjustments. Especially in a park like Fenway where fly balls to left that are often an easy out in most parks turn into doubles off the monster - I would be really wary of playing this under.
In fact I am probably going to fire a non system bet on the over. JMHO though...as Burg said the totals have been terrible thus far for this system...perhaps the linemakers have caught on and adjusted accordingly. lotta 6/6.5 totals for these marquee pitching matchups.
Also, LAA @ +140 with Dan Haren on the hill is juuuuicy much like the Yanks at +125 last night. Although not a system play may want to consider firing a value bet on them.
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS:
unlike yesterday todays sagarin plays pretty clearcut read and weep
giants/marlins/pirates/cubs/bos/laa u7/clevland
BOL
those are the exact plays I have BURG - you are right very clear cut today.
OFFICIAL SYSTEM PLAYS for 5/3:
SF FLA PITT CHC LAA/BOS U7*
**:
LAA/BOS U7 Haren vs. Lester : I absolutely HATE this play and here's why - Yes Haren and Lester both rated in top 20 in Sagarin ratings, but these two teams just played a series in LA a week ago. This pitching matchup was had on the 22nd and they pushed the 7 O/U as BOS won 4-3.
Both starting pitchers had very good starts so my theory is that both pitchers will approach each lineup the same way they did so effectively a week ago. Major league hitters are really good at what they do. The last time they faced these pitchers is still fresh in their minds and they WILL make the necessary adjustments. Especially in a park like Fenway where fly balls to left that are often an easy out in most parks turn into doubles off the monster - I would be really wary of playing this under.
In fact I am probably going to fire a non system bet on the over. JMHO though...as Burg said the totals have been terrible thus far for this system...perhaps the linemakers have caught on and adjusted accordingly. lotta 6/6.5 totals for these marquee pitching matchups.
Also, LAA @ +140 with Dan Haren on the hill is juuuuicy much like the Yanks at +125 last night. Although not a system play may want to consider firing a value bet on them.
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