LAA/BOS sic back door under - Sox ran it up against the Angels bullpen - guess my analysis for that Over was way off! lol...sometimes u get lucky....just goes to show you I think we want to be careful betting Unders in parks like fenway and on teams with such crazy good lineups like the Sox - they can explode on a bullpen like last night
Also I think another strategy to betting these unders may be to hedge with the 5inn line - that way a bullpen can hurt you - for example last night you would have broken even(or lost the VIG) if you had played equal bets on the 5inn line and 9inn total.
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RESULTS for 5/3"
SF FLA PITT CHC
CLE LAA/BOS U7
LAA/BOS sic back door under - Sox ran it up against the Angels bullpen - guess my analysis for that Over was way off! lol...sometimes u get lucky....just goes to show you I think we want to be careful betting Unders in parks like fenway and on teams with such crazy good lineups like the Sox - they can explode on a bullpen like last night
Also I think another strategy to betting these unders may be to hedge with the 5inn line - that way a bullpen can hurt you - for example last night you would have broken even(or lost the VIG) if you had played equal bets on the 5inn line and 9inn total.
wussup bro, unders been shitty this year i keep sayin it but i believe they will turn,seems to me that oddsmakers have caught up w/system undersd makin it hard to benefit from any value,anyway last nite not bad today i have
cubbies+107
bucs+120 corriea coming back to s.d
nats+140
dbacks+119
yanks+104
oak/texas under 7
twins now +150 but last nite bet jam had +158 so no play for me BOL
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wussup bro, unders been shitty this year i keep sayin it but i believe they will turn,seems to me that oddsmakers have caught up w/system undersd makin it hard to benefit from any value,anyway last nite not bad today i have
cubbies+107
bucs+120 corriea coming back to s.d
nats+140
dbacks+119
yanks+104
oak/texas under 7
twins now +150 but last nite bet jam had +158 so no play for me BOL
MIN - They opened in most books just under +150 and have moved to that number since. Perhaps early bettors assume a big game hangover after Liriano's No No last night? Honestly I think that could have been just what the Twins needed to jump start their season after a 6 game skid.....Morale in the clubhouse will be at an all time high. The main reason I think this is a borderline play is John Danks sits at #29 in the ratings - close enough for discussion. Despite pitching pretty decent thus far the White Sox have failed to back up Mr. Danks with a W in all of his 6 starts. Gonna fire on the Twinkies.
PIT - Clayton Richard #31 the cause for discussion. He has pitched well in his last 2 starts and has gotten no run support so unfortunately has had to take a couple L's....Correia coming off his best start of the year @ COL no easy place to pitch - Tough decision here, but I think this will be a close enough game to warrant a play on the plus side.
WASH - This is a very tricky one - Worley pitched great against the Mutts, however we see this a lot in baseball when an unknown comes in and is lights out for his first few starts until hitters get some tape on him. Normally I would say throw this play out, but on the other side the Nats have Marquis pitching who has been great as of late and worked his way up to #18 in the ratings. At +135 I don't see how we can lay off a top 20 pitcher on the Dog side vs. a rook who could get shelled in any of his upcoming starts. The Phillies offense is somewhat of an X-factor here, but I feel they are way too streaky to not fire on this one.
ARZ - Chacin being #26 in ratings warrants a discussion here. He hasn't done anything mind blowing though - I think i'll take the home dog here.
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SYSTEM PLAYS FOR 5/4:
MIN* CHC PIT* WASH* ARZ*
*Lot of borderline plays today:
MIN - They opened in most books just under +150 and have moved to that number since. Perhaps early bettors assume a big game hangover after Liriano's No No last night? Honestly I think that could have been just what the Twins needed to jump start their season after a 6 game skid.....Morale in the clubhouse will be at an all time high. The main reason I think this is a borderline play is John Danks sits at #29 in the ratings - close enough for discussion. Despite pitching pretty decent thus far the White Sox have failed to back up Mr. Danks with a W in all of his 6 starts. Gonna fire on the Twinkies.
PIT - Clayton Richard #31 the cause for discussion. He has pitched well in his last 2 starts and has gotten no run support so unfortunately has had to take a couple L's....Correia coming off his best start of the year @ COL no easy place to pitch - Tough decision here, but I think this will be a close enough game to warrant a play on the plus side.
WASH - This is a very tricky one - Worley pitched great against the Mutts, however we see this a lot in baseball when an unknown comes in and is lights out for his first few starts until hitters get some tape on him. Normally I would say throw this play out, but on the other side the Nats have Marquis pitching who has been great as of late and worked his way up to #18 in the ratings. At +135 I don't see how we can lay off a top 20 pitcher on the Dog side vs. a rook who could get shelled in any of his upcoming starts. The Phillies offense is somewhat of an X-factor here, but I feel they are way too streaky to not fire on this one.
ARZ - Chacin being #26 in ratings warrants a discussion here. He hasn't done anything mind blowing though - I think i'll take the home dog here.
wussup bro, unders been shitty this year i keep sayin it but i believe they will turn,seems to me that oddsmakers have caught up w/system undersd makin it hard to benefit from any value,anyway last nite not bad today i have
cubbies+107
bucs+120 corriea coming back to s.d
nats+140
dbacks+119
yanks+104
oak/texas under 7
twins now +150 but last nite bet jam had +158 so no play for me BOL
Twinkies definitely on the border.
Yanks -102 in my book, but probably still a good bet.
Missed that under, thx - actually like that play for once - OAK offense has been god awful.
No play on ARZ? did you miss that one or are u laying off for other reasons?
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS:
wussup bro, unders been shitty this year i keep sayin it but i believe they will turn,seems to me that oddsmakers have caught up w/system undersd makin it hard to benefit from any value,anyway last nite not bad today i have
cubbies+107
bucs+120 corriea coming back to s.d
nats+140
dbacks+119
yanks+104
oak/texas under 7
twins now +150 but last nite bet jam had +158 so no play for me BOL
Twinkies definitely on the border.
Yanks -102 in my book, but probably still a good bet.
Missed that under, thx - actually like that play for once - OAK offense has been god awful.
No play on ARZ? did you miss that one or are u laying off for other reasons?
Whats up, I have been following this thread the past week or so and have been doing a little research on my own.....I do have Toronto down as a play today....or does it not count because Niemann has not pitched over 29 innings this season??? Still i like this play anyway
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Quote Originally Posted by odieo:
My bad - yo got Dbacks on there.
TOR?
Whats up, I have been following this thread the past week or so and have been doing a little research on my own.....I do have Toronto down as a play today....or does it not count because Niemann has not pitched over 29 innings this season??? Still i like this play anyway
i have been a dedicated follower to this system for years and it has worked ,and it is not the only pistol i fire with in mlb,but its a little extra ammo in my arsenal when looking at angles on the daily board in mlb your opinion in your opinion but dont come in here bashing and sucking martingales dick
BOL
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jays have lost 3 in a row no play
and to you mr balls of clemens FUCK YOU POLITLEY
i have been a dedicated follower to this system for years and it has worked ,and it is not the only pistol i fire with in mlb,but its a little extra ammo in my arsenal when looking at angles on the daily board in mlb your opinion in your opinion but dont come in here bashing and sucking martingales dick
tigers opened +100 now -104 get on it opened +$ makes it a play
astros+135
mariners+106
atlanta/brewer under 7.5 -120 beachy and marcum
i think i may take early games off with david price coming off bad game he responds well, you see what astros did yesterday ,and yankee/tiger game very close, and as i said earlier if the first 3 sides go 1-2 or 0-3 ,i can double down on seattle late
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thursday sagarin
toronto ??? if thry open+149 or lower is a play
tigers opened +100 now -104 get on it opened +$ makes it a play
astros+135
mariners+106
atlanta/brewer under 7.5 -120 beachy and marcum
i think i may take early games off with david price coming off bad game he responds well, you see what astros did yesterday ,and yankee/tiger game very close, and as i said earlier if the first 3 sides go 1-2 or 0-3 ,i can double down on seattle late
tigers opened +100 now -104 get on it opened +$ makes it a play
astros+135
mariners+106
atlanta/brewer under 7.5 -120 beachy and marcum
i think i may take early games off with david price coming off bad game he responds well, you see what astros did yesterday ,and yankee/tiger game very close, and as i said earlier if the first 3 sides go 1-2 or 0-3 ,i can double down on seattle late
i had the same thing, although im not playing the unders. also wasnt sure to count houston as they are facing Homer Bailey in his first start of the season. do we still count this?
I like Tigers and Mariners the best here.
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS:
thursday sagarin
toronto ??? if thry open+149 or lower is a play
tigers opened +100 now -104 get on it opened +$ makes it a play
astros+135
mariners+106
atlanta/brewer under 7.5 -120 beachy and marcum
i think i may take early games off with david price coming off bad game he responds well, you see what astros did yesterday ,and yankee/tiger game very close, and as i said earlier if the first 3 sides go 1-2 or 0-3 ,i can double down on seattle late
i had the same thing, although im not playing the unders. also wasnt sure to count houston as they are facing Homer Bailey in his first start of the season. do we still count this?
tigers opened +100 now -104 get on it opened +$ makes it a play
astros+135
mariners+106
atlanta/brewer under 7.5 -120 beachy and marcum
i think i may take early games off with david price coming off bad game he responds well, you see what astros did yesterday ,and yankee/tiger game very close, and as i said earlier if the first 3 sides go 1-2 or 0-3 ,i can double down on seattle late
BURG -
Agree with you on TOR - Disagree on HOU - i think there is value in their price against a pitcher coming off the DL.
Haven't capped the late games yet, but hey we finally hit a total last night! lets keep it goin!
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS:
thursday sagarin
toronto ??? if thry open+149 or lower is a play
tigers opened +100 now -104 get on it opened +$ makes it a play
astros+135
mariners+106
atlanta/brewer under 7.5 -120 beachy and marcum
i think i may take early games off with david price coming off bad game he responds well, you see what astros did yesterday ,and yankee/tiger game very close, and as i said earlier if the first 3 sides go 1-2 or 0-3 ,i can double down on seattle late
BURG -
Agree with you on TOR - Disagree on HOU - i think there is value in their price against a pitcher coming off the DL.
Haven't capped the late games yet, but hey we finally hit a total last night! lets keep it goin!
ya i did some diggin last nite on reds game i ended up actually buckin the system and taking reds i just think the way they own this astro team no way they lose 2 outta 3 to them, houston had there chance yesterday.
i didnt take detroit either i had this game to close for comfort
i actually cranked the mets and reds, and made a small play on angels
system wise im going to try mariners tonite, may try atl/milw under ,but tonite i really like brew crew w/shaun marcum ,i also like ian kennedy at home small number,and of course our system play w m's
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ya i did some diggin last nite on reds game i ended up actually buckin the system and taking reds i just think the way they own this astro team no way they lose 2 outta 3 to them, houston had there chance yesterday.
i didnt take detroit either i had this game to close for comfort
i actually cranked the mets and reds, and made a small play on angels
system wise im going to try mariners tonite, may try atl/milw under ,but tonite i really like brew crew w/shaun marcum ,i also like ian kennedy at home small number,and of course our system play w m's
ya i did some diggin last nite on reds game i ended up actually buckin the system and taking reds i just think the way they own this astro team no way they lose 2 outta 3 to them, houston had there chance yesterday.
i didnt take detroit either i had this game to close for comfort
i actually cranked the mets and reds, and made a small play on angels
system wise im going to try mariners tonite, may try atl/milw under ,but tonite i really like brew crew w/shaun marcum ,i also like ian kennedy at home small number,and of course our system play w m's
Yea HOU was prolly a mistake, I liked the number though - thought it would be a closer game on getaway day. Took Detroit - Yanks a bit banged up today, no Jeter, Cano and eh....I too had a small play on LAA - however looking at it I think they qualify as a system play - depending on the book and where the number opened.
Kicking myself so hard for not capping the Mets' harder (their my team) Glanced at it and saw no value @even money with big Pelf going and Sanchez for SF. Was busy this morning and didn't look into it until after the game started - SF already with the series clinched and ending their East coast road trip heading across the country back home after the game to take on COL a team in their division. Mets trying not to get swept at home. Pretty much a no brainer to fire on the Metsies and I think there was a TON of value playing them -1 for a plus number. Ah well good ole Monday QB.....
Played the M's as well as the ATL/MIL total - looking good so far. Also have a small play on MIL. Small play on CLE as well which worked out.
I feel this system is heating up...excited for May/June.
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS:
ya i did some diggin last nite on reds game i ended up actually buckin the system and taking reds i just think the way they own this astro team no way they lose 2 outta 3 to them, houston had there chance yesterday.
i didnt take detroit either i had this game to close for comfort
i actually cranked the mets and reds, and made a small play on angels
system wise im going to try mariners tonite, may try atl/milw under ,but tonite i really like brew crew w/shaun marcum ,i also like ian kennedy at home small number,and of course our system play w m's
Yea HOU was prolly a mistake, I liked the number though - thought it would be a closer game on getaway day. Took Detroit - Yanks a bit banged up today, no Jeter, Cano and eh....I too had a small play on LAA - however looking at it I think they qualify as a system play - depending on the book and where the number opened.
Kicking myself so hard for not capping the Mets' harder (their my team) Glanced at it and saw no value @even money with big Pelf going and Sanchez for SF. Was busy this morning and didn't look into it until after the game started - SF already with the series clinched and ending their East coast road trip heading across the country back home after the game to take on COL a team in their division. Mets trying not to get swept at home. Pretty much a no brainer to fire on the Metsies and I think there was a TON of value playing them -1 for a plus number. Ah well good ole Monday QB.....
Played the M's as well as the ATL/MIL total - looking good so far. Also have a small play on MIL. Small play on CLE as well which worked out.
I feel this system is heating up...excited for May/June.
i didnt count Arizona because someone on this thread said system worked better when you bet against pitchers outside of top 25 instead of top 20. stauffer is 25th in sagarin rankings for NL
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Detroit on 3 game win streak....still a play?
i didnt count Arizona because someone on this thread said system worked better when you bet against pitchers outside of top 25 instead of top 20. stauffer is 25th in sagarin rankings for NL
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