It was an unofficial play - I mentioned it yesterday in one of my analysis' - Cole was 1 inning shy of the minimum to be on the "Big Boy" list for Sagarin, however if you used his numbers he would fit in at #20 yesterday.....Clayton Richard also in the top 20 so I considered it a play - however not officially for this system. The fact that SD bats have been super quiet also helped in my decision.
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Quote Originally Posted by BroadwayBob:
BTW missed that SD/Ph LN :(
It was an unofficial play - I mentioned it yesterday in one of my analysis' - Cole was 1 inning shy of the minimum to be on the "Big Boy" list for Sagarin, however if you used his numbers he would fit in at #20 yesterday.....Clayton Richard also in the top 20 so I considered it a play - however not officially for this system. The fact that SD bats have been super quiet also helped in my decision.
Also a Mets fan but bet against them in this system. A win-win situation for me if they lose I'm glad a few bucks go into my roll if they win I'm just as happy to see it. Probably a RO today its pouring on LI.
Bob - the only time you would eliminate a play is if the DOG is on a 3+ LOSING streak or the FAVORITE is on a 3+ WINNING streak. It doesn't make sense if it is reversed, in fact there is probably more value in those plays, i.e. getting plus money on a hot team and against a slumping team.....
CLE is officially a GO.
Just my 2 cents, as always play 'em as you like!
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Quote Originally Posted by BroadwayBob:
Got Indians @ +105
Also laying the 115 Hudson/Lince Un 6.5
Dodgers W L3 = NP for me
Also a Mets fan but bet against them in this system. A win-win situation for me if they lose I'm glad a few bucks go into my roll if they win I'm just as happy to see it. Probably a RO today its pouring on LI.
Bob - the only time you would eliminate a play is if the DOG is on a 3+ LOSING streak or the FAVORITE is on a 3+ WINNING streak. It doesn't make sense if it is reversed, in fact there is probably more value in those plays, i.e. getting plus money on a hot team and against a slumping team.....
ATL/SF Under now @ 6...........kinda wish I got my money in earlier!!! GL to those who did - may be pulling off this play - just lost a TON of value IMO.
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ATL/SF Under now @ 6...........kinda wish I got my money in earlier!!! GL to those who did - may be pulling off this play - just lost a TON of value IMO.
Lets resurrect some of those Benjamins from the ashes! Keep the faith brothers - can't get much worse than this!
TB BAL HOU CLE LAD CIN
Analysis on "Borderline" Games:
TB/TOR matches up the #22 and #23 pitchers in the Sagarin ratings normally I would shy away from this one since the favorite is starting the #22 pitcher which is right outside the boundaries, but I think the Dog pitcher cancels that out. Shields' last two starts have been extremely solid as well while Romero got knocked around by the BoSox in his last outing. I also like the price on the Rays +131 at my book. If this was under +110 I may strongly consider throwing it out, but I think all systems are go for me here.
On a side note this could be a possibility for an unofficial under play. O/U sitting at 8 right now with the juice shaded to the over....In fact I am feelin a bit frisky this afternoon so I may very well fire on it.
CLE is a borderline play as well. Despite hes inflated ERA, Pavano sits at #27 in the Sagarin ratings. Lets face it....he's Carl Pavano. You really don't know what you're gonna get. At +120 I am inclined to fire away on CLE avoiding the sweep behind Carrasco who has put up 3 solid starts in a row.
LAD face Mr. Zambrano who sits at #26 in the ratings and in my opinion trending up coming off a 3 hit 8 inning goose egg start. Kuroda has pitched decent thus far, but I just don't trust the Dodger bullpen especially after yesterday's performace. Bull pens are sometimes just as streaky as starting pitchers and not getting much value playing a number that is barely plus money....so this well more than likely be a PASS for me.
CLE sitting just above plus money, however my book still has Volquez as the starter when everyone else is listing LeClure - so this number will hopefully improve by first pitch - either way Westbrook has looked pretty awful all season - hopefully we'll be freerollin by the time this one starts!!
Things will turn around. Remember this is a marathon, not a sprint.
Just my 2 cents....as always, play 'em as you like!
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Odie's Official System Plays for 4/24:
Lets resurrect some of those Benjamins from the ashes! Keep the faith brothers - can't get much worse than this!
TB BAL HOU CLE LAD CIN
Analysis on "Borderline" Games:
TB/TOR matches up the #22 and #23 pitchers in the Sagarin ratings normally I would shy away from this one since the favorite is starting the #22 pitcher which is right outside the boundaries, but I think the Dog pitcher cancels that out. Shields' last two starts have been extremely solid as well while Romero got knocked around by the BoSox in his last outing. I also like the price on the Rays +131 at my book. If this was under +110 I may strongly consider throwing it out, but I think all systems are go for me here.
On a side note this could be a possibility for an unofficial under play. O/U sitting at 8 right now with the juice shaded to the over....In fact I am feelin a bit frisky this afternoon so I may very well fire on it.
CLE is a borderline play as well. Despite hes inflated ERA, Pavano sits at #27 in the Sagarin ratings. Lets face it....he's Carl Pavano. You really don't know what you're gonna get. At +120 I am inclined to fire away on CLE avoiding the sweep behind Carrasco who has put up 3 solid starts in a row.
LAD face Mr. Zambrano who sits at #26 in the ratings and in my opinion trending up coming off a 3 hit 8 inning goose egg start. Kuroda has pitched decent thus far, but I just don't trust the Dodger bullpen especially after yesterday's performace. Bull pens are sometimes just as streaky as starting pitchers and not getting much value playing a number that is barely plus money....so this well more than likely be a PASS for me.
CLE sitting just above plus money, however my book still has Volquez as the starter when everyone else is listing LeClure - so this number will hopefully improve by first pitch - either way Westbrook has looked pretty awful all season - hopefully we'll be freerollin by the time this one starts!!
Things will turn around. Remember this is a marathon, not a sprint.
Just my 2 cents....as always, play 'em as you like!
WASH - Maholm sits at #34 in the Sagarin ratings making this a IMO a borderline play. Coming off a shalacking by the Marlins, Maholm's stats are trending back to his career numbers as he drops down the rating list. Coupled with the streaky Pirate bats and Lannan pitching semi-decent for WASH i think this plus money play is a good one.
LAD - Nolasco sitting at #31 no doubt had some help getting there after his last outing which was a 4 hit 7 inning shutout of the Pirates. The hot Dodger bats will probably get enough runs off him to support Garland FTW....this is a GO for me.
Time for an upswing - who's coming with?
As always play 'em as you like!
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ODIE'S OFFICIAL SYSTEM PLAYS FOR 4/25:
WASH* LAD* COL
*Borderline Play Analysis:
WASH - Maholm sits at #34 in the Sagarin ratings making this a IMO a borderline play. Coming off a shalacking by the Marlins, Maholm's stats are trending back to his career numbers as he drops down the rating list. Coupled with the streaky Pirate bats and Lannan pitching semi-decent for WASH i think this plus money play is a good one.
LAD - Nolasco sitting at #31 no doubt had some help getting there after his last outing which was a 4 hit 7 inning shutout of the Pirates. The hot Dodger bats will probably get enough runs off him to support Garland FTW....this is a GO for me.
i been on this system for l5 years myself im with ya but we are in need of upswing for sure, unders in this system have been shitty so far ,and from the looks of totals that are system plays oddsmakers seem to be catching up to thisi m sure the dogs will start to bark though
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i been on this system for l5 years myself im with ya but we are in need of upswing for sure, unders in this system have been shitty so far ,and from the looks of totals that are system plays oddsmakers seem to be catching up to thisi m sure the dogs will start to bark though
Ohhhh also almost forgot to check the O/U plays - we have one OFFICIAL SYSTEM O/U Play:
ATL/SD U 6.5; Lowe #18 vs. Moseley #15; could be a risky play especially at 6.5; Both pitchers have pitched very well the first month of the season and are below their career ERAs. Nonetheless it is an official system play.
Also a Borderline O/U play out there : LAA/OAK U6.5; Weaver #2 vs. Gonzalez #26 - once again 6.5 is a tough play IMO.
Juice is shaded to the Over on both numbers...maybe they'll get to 7 by first pitch....
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Ohhhh also almost forgot to check the O/U plays - we have one OFFICIAL SYSTEM O/U Play:
ATL/SD U 6.5; Lowe #18 vs. Moseley #15; could be a risky play especially at 6.5; Both pitchers have pitched very well the first month of the season and are below their career ERAs. Nonetheless it is an official system play.
Also a Borderline O/U play out there : LAA/OAK U6.5; Weaver #2 vs. Gonzalez #26 - once again 6.5 is a tough play IMO.
Juice is shaded to the Over on both numbers...maybe they'll get to 7 by first pitch....
i been on this system for l5 years myself im with ya but we are in need of upswing for sure, unders in this system have been shitty so far ,and from the looks of totals that are system plays oddsmakers seem to be catching up to thisi m sure the dogs will start to bark though
Do you have any stats from over the 15 years? I've heard this system has lost at one point or another over the years, just interested to see how you've done.
Thanks in advance!
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS:
i been on this system for l5 years myself im with ya but we are in need of upswing for sure, unders in this system have been shitty so far ,and from the looks of totals that are system plays oddsmakers seem to be catching up to thisi m sure the dogs will start to bark though
Do you have any stats from over the 15 years? I've heard this system has lost at one point or another over the years, just interested to see how you've done.
i been on this system for l5 years myself im with ya but we are in need of upswing for sure, unders in this system have been shitty so far ,and from the looks of totals that are system plays oddsmakers seem to be catching up to thisi m sure the dogs will start to bark though
I think you are right BURG - a lot of shaded 6.5's so far - not sure if there is a lot of value playing anything under 7 or 7.5 for that matter - too much room for error in the bullpen. The article says the totals are "generally 7.5 - 9" and while it doesn't say it is an official rule perhaps it is a good guideline to go by.
I layed off the Hudson/Lincecum Under this weekend cause I just didn't see much value there - so if both pitchers give up a run or two and throw 7 strong - your putting a lot of faith in the bullpens not to give up a couple more. Played TB/TOR U8 which matched up the #22 and #23 pitchers in the ratings and it covered without a sweat as Shields threw a gem and Romero pitched well too - felt there was a lot more value in that play as you leave a little more room for error in the bullpen....especially this time of year....
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Quote Originally Posted by BURG2VEGAS:
i been on this system for l5 years myself im with ya but we are in need of upswing for sure, unders in this system have been shitty so far ,and from the looks of totals that are system plays oddsmakers seem to be catching up to thisi m sure the dogs will start to bark though
I think you are right BURG - a lot of shaded 6.5's so far - not sure if there is a lot of value playing anything under 7 or 7.5 for that matter - too much room for error in the bullpen. The article says the totals are "generally 7.5 - 9" and while it doesn't say it is an official rule perhaps it is a good guideline to go by.
I layed off the Hudson/Lincecum Under this weekend cause I just didn't see much value there - so if both pitchers give up a run or two and throw 7 strong - your putting a lot of faith in the bullpens not to give up a couple more. Played TB/TOR U8 which matched up the #22 and #23 pitchers in the ratings and it covered without a sweat as Shields threw a gem and Romero pitched well too - felt there was a lot more value in that play as you leave a little more room for error in the bullpen....especially this time of year....
WASH - Maholm sits at #34 in the Sagarin ratings making this a IMO a borderline play. Coming off a shalacking by the Marlins, Maholm's stats are trending back to his career numbers as he drops down the rating list. Coupled with the streaky Pirate bats and Lannan pitching semi-decent for WASH i think this plus money play is a good one.
LAD - Nolasco sitting at #31 no doubt had some help getting there after his last outing which was a 4 hit 7 inning shutout of the Pirates. The hot Dodger bats will probably get enough runs off him to support Garland FTW....this is a GO for me.
Time for an upswing - who's coming with?
As always play 'em as you like!
Is that top 20 pitchers in MLB or each of NL and AL? I mean there's only 30 teams and w/ 5 starters, that's only 150 starters overall. 30-35th pitcher in NL means 60th-70th pitcher in MLB. that's an average pitcher.
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Quote Originally Posted by odieo:
ODIE'S OFFICIAL SYSTEM PLAYS FOR 4/25:
WASH* LAD* COL
*Borderline Play Analysis:
WASH - Maholm sits at #34 in the Sagarin ratings making this a IMO a borderline play. Coming off a shalacking by the Marlins, Maholm's stats are trending back to his career numbers as he drops down the rating list. Coupled with the streaky Pirate bats and Lannan pitching semi-decent for WASH i think this plus money play is a good one.
LAD - Nolasco sitting at #31 no doubt had some help getting there after his last outing which was a 4 hit 7 inning shutout of the Pirates. The hot Dodger bats will probably get enough runs off him to support Garland FTW....this is a GO for me.
Time for an upswing - who's coming with?
As always play 'em as you like!
Is that top 20 pitchers in MLB or each of NL and AL? I mean there's only 30 teams and w/ 5 starters, that's only 150 starters overall. 30-35th pitcher in NL means 60th-70th pitcher in MLB. that's an average pitcher.
Sorry guys, been out of town for a couple of days. I'm updating record and bankroll based on Odieo's plays because we are using the same numbers for this system.
Plays for Friday 4/22:
Arizona +114 -20
Cincinnati +104 -20
Kansas City +148 -20
San Deigo +122 -20
0-4 for the day, -$80
Overall record and bankroll: 10-14 / $1545.00
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Sorry guys, been out of town for a couple of days. I'm updating record and bankroll based on Odieo's plays because we are using the same numbers for this system.
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i m sure the dogs will start to bark though
-20
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