FF selective bets - November thread

Congrats FF 

I will play two games for tonight. One of them is very risky... the other is solid. I can take a little risk with my first bet because i'm 7-0 run now and somewhere i have to lose... I know this team have no chemistry right now and is a pure fade material but they have big individuals which i think will build the win after last night disaster:

Cavaliers - 5

Irving and James will put much better effort tonight. They shooted like D-leaguers last night... Can't see how Cavs will go 1-3. I hope 5 points won't be a problem. Jazz are very talented and much improve team and i love them when they bring me money after beating Phoenix last week but here Cavs will be big bite for them after embarassing lose to Portland last night for Cleveland.

1.1 units (to win 1)

Have to agree that this bet in not so solid and everybody again will be on Cavs tonight but i have to take Lebron James ATS after huge loss in previous night. Hope this time the public will return after yesterday bloodbath for them.

My next and most solid play i will post in the next hours. There is a huge line movement right now there and it's in my favour

Hey FunkFreaker, 

DSS90 It's too complicate to answer of your question. I can write a nearly 200 pages book about my methods in handicapping. Some factors are stronger in some situations but they are weaker in other... you just have to recognize in which type of game what to look for. Then you will find the edge in your bets and your percentage will increase for sure. I can advise everybody here for something: WATCH GAMES! If you watched as many as possible you will improve your handicapping skills a bit. I use many numbers methods and systems but always bet on team which i know what is capable on the court. Numbers are just my big reassurance on what is in my mind. Tonight my next second play will be against the numbers and the logic but i saw an edge in this illogical play.

Tigers2013 I'm not a fan of teasing... don't recommend it at all. If you believe that Celtics will win that game just  bet on them but adding more games will increase your chance of losing the parlay.. I'm not talking about your considering teaser with Celts and Cavs... I talk about teasers in long term.

As i promised my second play will be on not so popular game where the public hits hard one of the teams and i wait for the perfect line. I need to go bed now so i can't wait for more than 4 points. I'm good with them because i think my team for tonight could steal the game even straight up like their opponent do two days go.

Nuggets + 4 at Kings

Hm.. interesting game for capping… let see what we got for this game:

1) Kings will be “last season Suns” ? Why not… this team looks great so far… they just beat Nuggets at road and Clippers…?  Oh and I forgot they beat Portland at home before Clippers game… the same Portland which beat Cleveland last night. Do you follow my logic ?  Kings have most talented center in the league in face of DeMarcus Cousins. This young boy is tired of losing but he needs to understand that he play in the wrong conference where there are many better teams than Sacramento… And finally this season we saw another face of Sacramento, they look improved and I really like them their coach. He is way better than Nuggets coach for example. And here is the most important question for tonight: Why we have to fade them when they are return at home after so many huge wins against team they just beat at road ?

2) Nuggets are very talented team and they just need some more time to play like they do 2 seasons ago. They suffered so many injuries last season and never found their rhythm. Now they continue to struggle with bad performances since start of the season. Their coach is awful compared to George Karl who was fired after taking award: Coach of the year… the worst decision ever Nuggets made in their whole history.

3) The line. The line is awful! I hate such a “gifts” for the public play. Do you remember last night with my catch on Blazers ? There aren’t many people thought that Cavs are going 1-2 after last night. But you have to know my friends that there is no clear logic in any sport. That is why betting on NBA games sometimes is so difficult for more than 80% of the bettors worldwide. They just haven’t learn yet how to get their edge and find good spots for betting.

4) I just watched the previous game between these two on LP. It was pretty equal and Sac stole it at the end. When I saw statistics i noticed that Nuggets shooting was like crap: 38.7% FG, 5-24 triples… starters without Mozgov were 15-49… wtf ? They will be so more motivate after that embarrassing worse than D-League performance. If they are capable to shoot better along with the revenge factor I think here we will have public blood bath. Everybody loves Sacramento now after they won against two of the best western teams Portland and LAC. FunkFreaker don’t love them tonight. This game will be close again and i can even see Nuggets to win straight up for a big public surprise.

1.1 units (to win 1)

BOL I will see you tomorrow after i wake up and watch the games.

0-2 last night. Every fairy tale has his end

ATS: 6-2-0 + 3.8 units
Totals: 1-0-0 + 1 units
Overall: 7-2-0 + 4.8 units

Complete misread of the games. As someone said here in the thread Cavs are gonna be the best fade material this year in the league. And Nuggets... what an awful team they look. The coach is garbage the chemistry is gone... i don't know. Maybe i won't touch their games soon. BOL Small schedule today for the TNT Thursday so i don't know if i will have some play. On first sight i like Dallas to win because they are nightmare matchup for Portland because of their deepness but if i have play i will post it later.

No damage done.  

Over looks fine.. Dallas have so many scorers right now. My only worry is that these TNT Thursday games are always unpredictable in totals. And the RLM... somebody somewhere put large money on that under... I don't know. This season i avoid total plays and i will play them only if i'm very confident. If i have to choose side i'll go with over because i don't like Portland defense. It's your decision.

For tonight i have only one bet: Mavericks + 2.5 I will post my writeup later.

Ok I will split my tonight bets on two parts:

Mavericks + 1 First Half
Mavericks + 2.5 Full Game

Why First Half ?

Because Mavs are 4-0 in their First Halves since start of the season and also 4-0 in First Halves in their last 4 visits at Portland! I love the numbers here because i know there is huge logic behind them. Last and this season this teams have two faces: Mavericks are huge team in their game opening. They could blowout any team in the league in the First Half. Second half is the other side of the coin. There was so many back door last season in their games. I can't count the times when this team waste 15+ point lead. Look their last game against Boston. This team isn't change at all from the last season. Portland are the opposite. Often they struggle at home in the first half but they are kings in the late come backs. We saw so many of them last season... including playoff series against Rockets (another strong First Half team).

Why Full Game ?

Because Dallas are nightmare matchup for Portland. Mavs are 13-7 (2-1 last season) SU last 20 games against Blazers (including 4-2 Mavs playoffs win   in the Dallas championship season). And this year Dallas offense look so fantastic they i can't see how Blazers defense is gonna stop them. Nowitzki every time play great against Portland. I'm sure Blazers hate this guy. Tyson Chandler will be over Robin Lopez in 5 spot. Mattews have no job last game against Waiters but tonight he face Monta Ellis which is one of the fastest and dangerous SG in the league. Only Lillard wins the battle for sure against Nelson. Carlisle is better coach... he has way better bench than Portland and if he finds the right rotation for tonight's game Dallas will be rolling. I expect huge first half for Dallas and possible comeback for Portland. Close game at the end in one possession is also very probable. So points here for me are nice. I'm so glad that Portland blow out Cavs last game and now i can taste the dog line in this game where i thought that we could see again home dog if Blazers were lost last game to Cavs.

BOL fellas! That's from me. I'm not touching for anything in the world Rockets (4-0 series against Spurs last season) which are without loss yet against Gregg Popovich and his rotation.

I like the Dallas plays. 

Rockets at -6.5 feels like 2 points to many.   Do spurs ever get that many points.    I darn recall.    

Tigers2013 I remember similar game with Spurs last year on TNT Thursday. They were at road against Warriors and Pop decide to rest Duncan, Manu and Parker. The line jumps from 3.5 to 6.5 and Spurs win straight up with their bench players. Spurs + 6.5 or nothing. This points are too many against champions.

About that over... yeah we have clear RLM here. I hate to touch such a lines especially on thursdays. On the other side both teams are offense minded and would hit that number with an ease... really strange indeed. I will stick it to my two plays for tonight. That's from me. Tomorrow we will have big schedule and more opportunities to find some good edge

Exactly what I was thinking in the Mavs game. Great minds think alike lol. Their bench is deeper and they have more scoring. I think Nelson is a pretty good defender and will limit Lilliard. Having Tyson back definitely helps the defense and rebounding. I said it in my thread as well that this is a terrible matchup for Portland. Tough game in Houston to cap. Will they be up to demolish the bench of the Spurs? Who the heck knows lol. BOL 

I don't know really... just Gregg Popovich is such a master mind and you never know when and how Spurs will step up.

Mavericks + 1 First Half
Mavericks + 2.5 Full Game

What a second half for Mavs... at least my theory about Dallas First and Portland Second Halves was completely right.

ATS: 7-3-0 + 3.7 units
Totals: 1-0-0 + 1 units
Overall: 8-3-0 + 4.7 units

On the wrong side of that total.  Kinda looked obvious by the line not moving.  

That is why i prefer ATS bets. Cause you don't have to think so much what will be the pace, who will score and how many points and etc. There are tones of stats you can mess with your head and finally you can pick a complete loser bet. In ATS you just have to pick the winner of the game I will play some totals this year but it will be very rare remember my word. Maybe some Grizzlies unders and stuff like this

Friday 7th November:

Timberwolves - 2.5

Love to take Western teams in these type of matchups. Wolves look nice so far without Kevin Love so I'm not worry he isn't there anymore. They are better team than Magic and i think i'm on the right side (pregame of course) tonight. Orlando have some really nice weapons under the glass like Vucevic (especially) and Frye but i'm good with Pekovic and Thad Young. Wolves move the ball better. They have pure guard offensive advantage in the face of Ricky Rubio and Kevin Martin. My only worry here is that Magic are with 5 straight wins against Wolves at home but this teams made so many important rooster changes during last two seasons that i don't think this trend is gonna be active again tonight.  I'm taking this early line because it will increase in next hours. I'm not sure about the movement but i like - 2.5 and i'm gonna take it.

1.1 units (to win 1)

Damn... i hate in game injuries like Rubio last night. I think that pretty much cost me the bet in the second half and OT. No worries today we will catch them

ATS: 7-4-0 + 2.6 units
Totals: 1-0-0 + 1 units
Overall: 8-4-0 + 3.6 units

Hey FF! Any leans for today? Por@Lac-4.5 and Gsw@Hou-1.5? Might consider the over on Houston