Before you sail off to catch some fish, how about a breakdown.... look ahead match MAN U vs Barcelona on 2/16 Europa.
I am also on KC +1.5, keep the ball out of Jalen's hands period. Easier said than done, 2 of Kc's losses involved playing a mobile QB. Allen rushed 12 times and Burrows rushed 11 times. Does not include play action though, and Mahomes has for the most part has tried to match the rushing attempts done by the opposing QB's.
I will be in Curacao sometime soon. Anguilla is nice. Enjoy!
There are an expected 50 million people who are going to bet the SB this year.
And you care about 1. Me.
Talk about living rent free in your head. You posted twice in this losers thread? Now... Who exactly is the loser here?
Ha. I used to be 12 months a year. No chance anymore. I have 3 months where I am completely off during the summer, and about 3 months where I am only betting soccer. That is enough for me.
So a nice work / life balance.
I have written a lot here about my process. BTW - process is the key. Results are secondary to process. If you dont have a process - even a simple one - you are going to fail at this longterm.
(For NFL)
1. Usually Monday morning, before I see any lines - I spend 15 minutes going through the games and coming up with "gut" result predictions. Not line predictions. Result predictions.
2. Compare gut result predictions to real available lines. Bet any really strong outliers (very selective)
3. I have a predictive model that I have developed over 15+ years. It is stats driven, and has 12 "levers" that I can adjust. Things like injuries, uncertainty, and value of certain stats. The stats that are fed to it are all adjusted stats for SOS and game situations - not raw stats. It runs simulations, and gives me standard deviations and predictive results, along with some other key indicators in a dashboard format.
4. Take #1 and #3, compare to real available lines and establish a staking strategy for each game.
5. Take #1 and #3, establish a timing and where to bet strategy for getting the best line for each game.
6. Start taking positions anywhere from Wed to Sunday gametime. Overbuy positions or oversell positions where I think lines will move.
7. Sell or buy positions that I took in #6 on speculation.
8. Watch all games live with no sound. Watch no pregame. Watch very selective analysts.
9. Rewatch all games (shortened version) next week. Repeat every week.
Thats basically what I do - every single week of the NFL season. Results come and go. But I know this process works. It has worked for years and years.
Every year, I do a post mortem sometime in March or so to see how to tweak the model. I consult people who are way smarter than me in stats and programming, pay them a few bucks - and they make the changes for me.
Established in 1995,
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