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Super Bowl - Eagles / Chiefs

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Captain
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Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 5037
Posted: #101

@vanzack

 Good luck today bro. Let’s get this moneybagpeace_5

 
Prospect
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Joined: Apr, 2005
Posts: 331
Posted: #102

@vanzack

 historically when we are same side 

it does well and wins

 

i love the chiefs HUGE today and hit them hard- but basically like a game of the week reg season

not sacrificing a whole year of profit on 1 game

 

fwiw

alt line seems juicy too

 

chiefs -3.5  at +140

have a blessed day and congrats on a great year!

 
Prospect
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Joined: Apr, 2005
Posts: 331
Posted: #103

@vanzack

 historically when we are same side 

it does well and wins

 

i love the chiefs HUGE today and hit them hard- but basically like a game of the week reg season

not sacrificing a whole year of profit on 1 game

 

fwiw

alt line seems juicy too

 

chiefs -3.5  at +140

have a blessed day and congrats on a great year!

 
Legend
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 59782
Posted: #104

At a party.... but I will get to posts in more detail in a little while....

an_cheers

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Captain
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Posts: 9229
Posted: #105

@vanzack

  Regardless of the outcome of the Super Bowl game, thanks for sharing your plays with us, way to Crush your book this season, Congrats, excellent job.moneybagcool

 
Rookie
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Joined: Nov, 2014
Posts: 715
Posted: #106

@EastsideBangers

 

 Fun following you two this year an_praiseI’m on the peace Birds

 
Veteran
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Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 3809
Posted: #107

hope you are well & 
I’m on chiefs as well van!

 

 
Prospect
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Joined: Aug, 2014
Posts: 355
Posted: #108

 Just wanted to say thanks for all your help and sharing your knowledge all season.Good luck, riding with you on the Chiefs.an_cheers

 
Prospect
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Joined: Aug, 2012
Posts: 303
Posted: #109

@vanzack

 Thanks Vanzack.

took the Chief and take the risk parley with over as well.

One happy season and smile in my sleep. 

good job ?? 

 
Legend
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Posts: 59782
Posted: #110

Close game

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Aug, 2012
Posts: 303
Posted: #111

@vanzack

 Indeed but they get the job done, that’s all matter.

Can’t wait for 2023 season.

btw Van, do you post other sports as well? Or just football

 
Legend
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Joined: Oct, 2005
Posts: 30076
Posted: #112

win

Bagel Sandwiches Suck
 
All-Star
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Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 13364
Posted: #113

Zack Attack moneybagan_boxingmoneybagan_boxingwin

 

Enjoy the winnings during the off season.

 
Hall of Fame
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Posts: 26400
Posted: #114

@vanzack

 nice call, con grats.

See you when you come back.

 

 
Legend
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Joined: Mar, 2016
Posts: 58407
Posted: #115

peace_5peaceclover

Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
 
Captain
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Joined: Jun, 2012
Posts: 8255
Posted: #116

an_cheers

 
Veteran
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Posts: 2514
Posted: #117

peace_5

Congrats Vanzack

 
Veteran
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Joined: Jan, 2019
Posts: 2944
Posted: #118

Nice call. Had the other side. Was truly a coin flip so you had the correct side. However it was the worst ending I've ever seen in a superbowl. Refs took the game out of the players hands. 

 
Captain
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Posts: 6351
Posted: #119

an_cheers

Let's go Darwin
 
Prospect
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Posts: 28
Posted: #120

cannot wait for the superbowl

 
Legend
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Joined: Jan, 2005
Posts: 40016
Posted: #121

Vanzack is a winner,  pure class, provides insights and perspectives that give you a big edge and has been doing it here for yearsan_lightan_worshippeace_5an_cheerswin

 
Veteran
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Joined: Sep, 2018
Posts: 2799
Posted: #122

Fitting end to a great season Van

Enjoy the offseason  an_cheers

 
Veteran
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Joined: Jan, 2022
Posts: 1945
Posted: #123

Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: I have written a lot here about my process.  BTW - process is the key.  Results are secondary to process.  If you dont have a process - even a simple one - you are going to fail at this longterm. (For NFL) 1.  Usually Monday morning, before I see any lines - I spend 15 minutes going through the games and coming up with "gut" result predictions.  Not line predictions.  Result predictions.2.  Compare gut result predictions to real available lines.  Bet any really strong outliers (very selective)3.  I have a predictive model that I have developed over 15+ years.  It is stats driven, and has 12 "levers" that I can adjust.  Things like injuries, uncertainty, and value of certain stats.  The stats that are fed to it are all adjusted stats for SOS and game situations - not raw stats.  It runs simulations, and gives me standard deviations and predictive results, along with some other key indicators in a dashboard format.4.  Take #1 and #3, compare to real available lines and establish a staking strategy for each game.5.  Take #1 and #3, establish a timing and where to bet strategy for getting the best line for each game.6.  Start taking positions anywhere from Wed to Sunday gametime.  Overbuy positions or oversell positions where I think lines will move.7.  Sell or buy positions that I took in #6 on speculation.8.  Watch all games live with no sound.  Watch no pregame.  Watch very selective analysts.9.  Rewatch all games (shortened version) next week.  Repeat every week. Thats basically what I do - every single week of the NFL season.  Results come and go.  But I know this process works.  It has worked for years and years.  Every year, I do a post mortem sometime in March or so to see how to tweak the model.  I consult people who are way smarter than me in stats and programming, pay them a few bucks - and they make the changes for me.   WOW no job? NO kids? Must be nice

You literally Quote the man process and still post NO JOB?  God lord your job must be intense!

Even after reading Van process. NO THANK YOU! 

I'm extremely grateful for guys like him who put in the work and share it.

 
Veteran
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 1911
Posted: #124

winstay well till next year.

 
 
Hall of Fame
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Posts: 26029
Posted: #125

peace_5

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