Super Bowl - Eagles / Chiefs

Quote Originally Posted by dr tony:

@vanzack  historically when we are same side  it does well and wins   i love the chiefs HUGE today and hit them hard- but basically like a game of the week reg season not sacrificing a whole year of profit on 1 game   fwiw alt line seems juicy too   chiefs -3.5  at +140 have a blessed day and congrats on a great year!

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Thanks all.  Totally humbled by the support.  Much appreciated. Hope everyone kills the books in the coming months!

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by ealxele: @vanzack Noobie here trying to get better...How exactly did you get these numbers? I have written a lot here about my process.  BTW - process is the key.  Results are secondary to process.  If you dont have a process - even a simple one - you are going to fail at this longterm. (For NFL) 1.  Usually Monday morning, before I see any lines - I spend 15 minutes going through the games and coming up with "gut" result predictions.  Not line predictions.  Result predictions.2.  Compare gut result predictions to real available lines.  Bet any really strong outliers (very selective)3.  I have a predictive model that I have developed over 15+ years.  It is stats driven, and has 12 "levers" that I can adjust.  Things like injuries, uncertainty, and value of certain stats.  The stats that are fed to it are all adjusted stats for SOS and game situations - not raw stats.  It runs simulations, and gives me standard deviations and predictive results, along with some other key indicators in a dashboard format.4.  Take #1 and #3, compare to real available lines and establish a staking strategy for each game.5.  Take #1 and #3, establish a timing and where to bet strategy for getting the best line for each game.6.  Start taking positions anywhere from Wed to Sunday gametime.  Overbuy positions or oversell positions where I think lines will move.7.  Sell or buy positions that I took in #6 on speculation.8.  Watch all games live with no sound.  Watch no pregame.  Watch very selective analysts.9.  Rewatch all games (shortened version) next week.  Repeat every week. Thats basically what I do - every single week of the NFL season.  Results come and go.  But I know this process works.  It has worked for years and years.  Every year, I do a post mortem sometime in March or so to see how to tweak the model.  I consult people who are way smarter than me in stats and programming, pay them a few bucks - and they make the changes for me. We gotta figure out a way to get me on the payroll..... If covers wasn't such a weird and scary place, a Vegas get together would be great to explore these kinds of things.