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Super Bowl - Eagles / Chiefs

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Legend
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Posted: #76

Quote Originally Posted by 1129ken:

Quote Originally Posted by JEG53: @vanzack    Is that a trick ??, Arizona has a doom Stadium so I would guess it would be 68 or so. Now it can be opened but that would only happen if weather was not an issue. Now this being the 3rd SB here, I should mention the first 2 the roof was open, so not sure the plan on this but Arizona in Jan. I would guess open.   Jeg--Respectfully, I believe the mention of the weather was a humorous reference to an earlier thread where a Van critic showed up to find fault with the man who is up over 50 units on the year ( posted ) because he didn't discuss a weather forecast. Occasionally these critics, who offer nothing of value, stop by for a cup of semen to criticize the man who is extraordinary and kind enough to share with those of us who are nowhere close to his level of expertise. If you peruse Van's threads, including this one, you will find other examples of posters who simply have to hate those who are better than them.

 

Thanks for explaining.  I regret posting that in response to JEG's post.

It sometimes gets ridiculous with the amount of sh*t you have to put up with here.  I acted in the moment.  Nothing to do with either of you.

peace_5

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #77

@vanzack

 I’ve got a question 

 
Legend
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Posted: #78

Quote Originally Posted by Peanutzz:

@vanzack  I’ve got a question

We all do.

peace_5

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #79

Growth of betting- this will be most highly bet superbowl of all time.

Betters want points, yards, etc.

This is an obvious under play. while the odds might be 50/50 over, under, if it only goes under a little, many of the under props will hit in unison. great correlated parlay option here. 

 
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Posted: #80

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by Peanutzz: @vanzack  I’ve got a question We all do.

wanted to tail you but you and ESB are opposites. And not gonna lie its a scary prospect when y’all are opposites…an_nailbiter

 
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Posted: #81

Quote Originally Posted by PeAceMaKer7690:

Growth of betting- this will be most highly bet superbowl of all time. Betters want points, yards, etc. This is an obvious under play. while the odds might be 50/50 over, under, if it only goes under a little, many of the under props will hit in unison. great correlated parlay option here.

I have almost every prop under. Not only under points, under yards under this under that.

The one thing everyone should know about props is... 80% of squares bet over. A player's yards, a player's touchdowns, a team's touchdowns, etc... Everyone bets overs. In the super bowl, if all you do is bet under's on those props you are going to do very well. Not necessarily in this game, but over several super bowls.

peace_5

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #82

Quote Originally Posted by Peanutzz:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by Peanutzz: @vanzack  I’ve got a question We all do. wanted to tail you but you and ESB are opposites. And not gonna lie its a scary prospect when y’all are opposites…

Go with ESB. He has a stronger rated play than I do. This is just an every day type of wager for me.

an_cheers

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #83

GL Van... same side

 
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Posted: #84

Good Luck Vanan_cheers

 
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Posted: #85

@vanzack

 NP   peace_5

 
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Posted: #86

Good luck to us..Same side, but think KC outperforms expectations and thus total goes over.

 
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Posted: #87

Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:

Good luck to us..Same side, but think KC outperforms expectations and thus total goes over.

peace_5

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #88

Bol today and thanks for the insight and pics all year.

 

clover

 
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Posted: #89

Quote Originally Posted by Peanutzz:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by Peanutzz: @vanzack  I’ve got a question We all do. wanted to tail you but you and ESB are opposites. And not gonna lie its a scary prospect when y’all are opposites…

 

How about let your nutzzz drop… and make your own decision based on the information in front of you. an_light  

The impossible only takes longer….
 
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Posted: #90

Easy pick for me today. Eagles 37 Chiefs 34.

 
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Posted: #91

@vanzack

 an_cheers clover

 
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Posted: #92

Van:

are you assuming Hurts is hurt or not? I think it’s a huge factor.. congrats and thanks for your work all year

 
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Posted: #93

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by ealxele: @vanzack Noobie here trying to get better...How exactly did you get these numbers? I have written a lot here about my process.  BTW - process is the key.  Results are secondary to process.  If you dont have a process - even a simple one - you are going to fail at this longterm. (For NFL) 1.  Usually Monday morning, before I see any lines - I spend 15 minutes going through the games and coming up with "gut" result predictions.  Not line predictions.  Result predictions.2.  Compare gut result predictions to real available lines.  Bet any really strong outliers (very selective)3.  I have a predictive model that I have developed over 15+ years.  It is stats driven, and has 12 "levers" that I can adjust.  Things like injuries, uncertainty, and value of certain stats.  The stats that are fed to it are all adjusted stats for SOS and game situations - not raw stats.  It runs simulations, and gives me standard deviations and predictive results, along with some other key indicators in a dashboard format.4.  Take #1 and #3, compare to real available lines and establish a staking strategy for each game.5.  Take #1 and #3, establish a timing and where to bet strategy for getting the best line for each game.6.  Start taking positions anywhere from Wed to Sunday gametime.  Overbuy positions or oversell positions where I think lines will move.7.  Sell or buy positions that I took in #6 on speculation.8.  Watch all games live with no sound.  Watch no pregame.  Watch very selective analysts.9.  Rewatch all games (shortened version) next week.  Repeat every week. Thats basically what I do - every single week of the NFL season.  Results come and go.  But I know this process works.  It has worked for years and years.  Every year, I do a post mortem sometime in March or so to see how to tweak the model.  I consult people who are way smarter than me in stats and programming, pay them a few bucks - and they make the changes for me.

 

MAYANNNNN!!!!!???............. i dont know how old you are but if your getting towards the end of life, don't leave this earth without passing  this EXACT process to the new and young upcoming bettors, it would be a waste if you leave this earth and no one elses knows this process of yours. its almost like striking gold if this process generate success year in and year out. anyways thanks for your contribution to this covers community......your the few great ones left.peace_5an_cheers

 
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Posted: #94

VZ peaceclovercloverclover

Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
 
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Posted: #95

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I have written a lot here about my process.  BTW - process is the key.  Results are secondary to process.  If you dont have a process - even a simple one - you are going to fail at this longterm. (For NFL) 1.  Usually Monday morning, before I see any lines - I spend 15 minutes going through the games and coming up with "gut" result predictions.  Not line predictions.  Result predictions.2.  Compare gut result predictions to real available lines.  Bet any really strong outliers (very selective)3.  I have a predictive model that I have developed over 15+ years.  It is stats driven, and has 12 "levers" that I can adjust.  Things like injuries, uncertainty, and value of certain stats.  The stats that are fed to it are all adjusted stats for SOS and game situations - not raw stats.  It runs simulations, and gives me standard deviations and predictive results, along with some other key indicators in a dashboard format.4.  Take #1 and #3, compare to real available lines and establish a staking strategy for each game.5.  Take #1 and #3, establish a timing and where to bet strategy for getting the best line for each game.6.  Start taking positions anywhere from Wed to Sunday gametime.  Overbuy positions or oversell positions where I think lines will move.7.  Sell or buy positions that I took in #6 on speculation.8.  Watch all games live with no sound.  Watch no pregame.  Watch very selective analysts.9.  Rewatch all games (shortened version) next week.  Repeat every week. Thats basically what I do - every single week of the NFL season.  Results come and go.  But I know this process works.  It has worked for years and years.  Every year, I do a post mortem sometime in March or so to see how to tweak the model.  I consult people who are way smarter than me in stats and programming, pay them a few bucks - and they make the changes for me.

That my friends….is a genius at work cool The best part of it all, is you willingly just offer your hours and hours of work…peace_5

it’s truly incredible, and i appreciate your insight, humbleness, and ability to teach others…not only providing picks. I can’t thank you enough…enjoy your time off well deserved Vanzack! I wish you could enjoy this Maui indoor kind with me…I’m certain you would enjoy. Take care, see ya next season. peace_5  No Ka Oi = da greatest. 

The impossible only takes longer….
 
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Posted: #96

Right with you here Van,BOLpeace_5

 
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Posted: #97

@vanzack

 BOL and always enjoy reading your thoughts.   

 
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Posted: #98

GL Van...same side...  peace_5

 
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Posted: #99

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Regular Season Final Record:  +49.0 unitsPlayoff Record:  +5.5 units Chiefs +1.5 (2 units) Not going to write a big writeup for a game I see as very close and just a small play (relative to playoff units).  I have the Chiefs as a -2.75 favorite, and a 56.5% chance to cover +1.5. Most likely a close game.  Chiefs 24-20. Great season - it was a blast - hope you all had a good one also.

 

GL KC  Mahomes  an_cheers

I’m a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it.
 
 
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Posted: #100

@i_Win_u_Lose

 

 That’s absolutely Gold!

my only question for Mr. Van at this point would be; who’s that kid on your avatar ??

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