Super Bowl - Eagles / Chiefs

I have written a lot here about my process.  BTW - process is the key.  Results are secondary to process.  If you dont have a process - even a simple one - you are going to fail at this longterm.

(For NFL)

1.  Usually Monday morning, before I see any lines - I spend 15 minutes going through the games and coming up with "gut" result predictions.  Not line predictions.  Result predictions.
2.  Compare gut result predictions to real available lines.  Bet any really strong outliers (very selective)
3.  I have a predictive model that I have developed over 15+ years.  It is stats driven, and has 12 "levers" that I can adjust.  Things like injuries, uncertainty, and value of certain stats.  The stats that are fed to it are all adjusted stats for SOS and game situations - not raw stats.  It runs simulations, and gives me standard deviations and predictive results, along with some other key indicators in a dashboard format.
4.  Take #1 and #3, compare to real available lines and establish a staking strategy for each game.
5.  Take #1 and #3, establish a timing and where to bet strategy for getting the best line for each game.
6.  Start taking positions anywhere from Wed to Sunday gametime.  Overbuy positions or oversell positions where I think lines will move.
7.  Sell or buy positions that I took in #6 on speculation.
8.  Watch all games live with no sound.  Watch no pregame.  Watch very selective analysts.
9.  Rewatch all games (shortened version) next week.  Repeat every week.

Thats basically what I do - every single week of the NFL season.  Results come and go.  But I know this process works.  It has worked for years and years. 

Every year, I do a post mortem sometime in March or so to see how to tweak the model.  I consult people who are way smarter than me in stats and programming, pay them a few bucks - and they make the changes for me.

I hear you man.  It's a hard thing to achieve.  I hope to be there soon, spent the last 15 years busting ass so i can try and get there sooner than most. Enjoy the vacation and balance 

TY Van, great season, Cheers

GL HF Drive Safe & Sober

@vanzack

 Any thoughts on Eagles losing the OL player that is a beast in size, 2019 rape that seems to have caught up to him. 6 ft 6 in and 325 pounds seems like alot to lose, though I do not know who takes his place. Has to be an issue for pass blocking I would think.

Nice year again for you,

GL Sunday.

@saigon

 Who do you like saigon ?

vanzack

Chiefs 31-23

Nfl regular season one point wins about 4%, so odds Philly wins by one about 2%. I think SB wins by 1 point has happened once. Probably not enough data on SB games, but odds of SB landing on 1 probably slightly less still. 

@JEG53

 I believe he played 4 snaps all year. Only dressed for 2 or 3 games.  Losing the kid that runs out and picks up the tee might have a bigger effect 

Jeg, what post #60 said. The dude played 4 snaps on special teams in October. That's it. He's nothing to worry about. 

If he was a starter, we'd be hearing about it ad nauseum.

What about the weather?

If covers wasn't such a weird and scary place, a Vegas get together would be great to explore these kinds of things.

I get it. I am not trying to make a case that +1.5 is a great value over PK. Just pointing out that it is fairly priced.

Something to remember--Super Bowl's just a single game at the end of a long season. 57 could be a great one.

Thanks for sharing your info. Always an interesting & profitable post to read. Enjoy that sunny weather.

RT2

Great work Friend, 

Thx for all the posts over the years!

Good luck 

Great Work Van.

Enjoy the game, family time.

As it's only 1 game, I'll be looking more at the props.

Would be cool to meet guys Iike You, ESB, Mac, Marcig, train 69, wizerguy, Mrusso , svac in vegas if we could organize it

@vanzack

 Is that a trick ??, Arizona has a doom Stadium so I would guess it would be 68 or so. Now it can be opened but that would only happen if weather was not an issue.

Now this being the 3rd SB here, I should mention the first 2 the roof was open, so not sure the plan on this but Arizona in Jan. I would guess open.

WOW no job? NO kids? Must be nice

Jeg--Respectfully, I believe the mention of the weather was a humorous reference to an earlier thread where a Van critic showed up to find fault with the man who is up over 50 units on the year ( posted ) because he didn't discuss a weather forecast. Occasionally these critics, who offer nothing of value, stop by for a cup of semen to criticize the man who is extraordinary and kind enough to share with those of us who are nowhere close to his level of expertise. If you peruse Van's threads, including this one, you will find other examples of posters who simply have to hate those who are better than them.

@1129ken

 Thanks for the head's up Also he might have sent it to me because I asked him if he was on Twitter on another thread, .

I am well aware of Van abilities as I have played quite a few of his plays over the years, also aware of Covers trolls bashing the good people on here.

@RebelTell2

@Unders_Club

@umgmu

Just a bad attempt at an inside joke on my part with another poster.

Nothing directed at you specifically.

What I explain above is my job.  My family is very understanding of the time it takes, which is more than 40 hours a week.  But luckily - it is only for about 7 months of the year.