suuma's NFL week one «» write-ups guaranteed

Only three more days and the NFL season finally begins. After a whole summer of research, I am ready to make some serious money. 2014 was successful but after recapping each pick, I wasn't satisfied at all. A lot of good reads but also many picks which I wouldn't do again after the research in the off-season. So the goal for the upcoming season can only be to improve in every facet. Probably won't have the time to post extended write-ups each week, but for week one it's no problem. I appreciate every useful contribution, criticism and discussion.

2014 record: 83-51 (62%)
 

Let's start week one with a BANG!

New England Patriots -6.5 -115

Bryant, Bell, Pouncey, Golson, probably Tuitt, Timmons not 100%. That’s huge. They were 8-2 with and 3-3 without Bryant last season. He only played in 10 games, but he was the most deep-targeted player last season with 41.7%. His 2.75 yards per route run were 3rd in the league, he even beat out Antonio Brown at this number.  I think that’s a huge miss for the Steelers. He stretches the field: “While teammate Antonio Brown is PFF’s top-ranked WR entering 2015, Bryant had an impressive rookie campaign in 2014, ranking No. 7 in the league in WR rating at 125.8 (QB rating when targeted). He also ranked No. 6 in yards per route run average at 2.75 — better than Brown, Randall Cobb, and Jordy Nelson. A favorite deep target of Roethlisberger, 41.7 percent of Bryant’s targets were of the deep variety. He caught all seven of his catchable deep balls, with four going for TDs.”

The Pats' 4-3: Chandler Jones is likely going to lineup as the RDE. His pass rush was good from ROLB last season. Rob Ninkovich can move back to LDE. Isn’t a good pass rusher, but should get better production as he got from LOLB. Collins and Hightower back at full strength, great pass rush from OLB, Mayo playing MLB. Easley showed performances of being a first rounder in the pre-season and if he and Sealver Siliga can somehow get production on the interior, the Patriots have them, because the Steelers are without Bell for screen and short passes and can’t stretch the field like they want to without Martavis Bryant. Big Ben will fail to find enough options on the field, because the Pats will be able to send a 2nd man to “spy” on Antonio Brown. Just watch the AFC Championship game - Kyle Arrington covered TY Hilton and they always had a safety on the spy. Heath Miller won’t have an easy game and he struggled in pass protection last season. With the Patriots being able to send pressure and gameplaning to take ABrown out of the game, I don't expect the Steelers to move the ball effectively on every drive. We will see a lot of three and outs, especially in the first half.

On the other side: This Patriots offensive line is garbage,and will get eaten alive by the Bills, but against the Steelers it isn’t so bad. Stephon Tuitt was sidelined for weeks and practiced for the first time on Saturday. If Tuitt doesn’t play, will the Steelers get enough pressure on the Pats? I mean, RT Sebastian Vollmer is their best lineman. I would say it’s gonna be a good matchup for him against Tuitt, but against Geathers??? Even with Dupree on top, this is going to be a good matchup for the Patriots as Bud Dupree didn’t look good so far and he will probably need some games to get into the NFL. Their interior should be solid, at least leaning to the right side against McLendon, Geathers/Tuitt and Dupree. So their left side is the issue, but that’s something Belichick and Josh McDaniels can prepare for. Bubble screens, screens, putting Gronkowski and Scott Chandler into good matchups. Remember: the Pats survived heavy pass rush from Miami and Detroit last season at home. C Ryan Stork looks like he probably won't play so Ryan Wendell is maybe getting the start here. Rookie Tre Jackson should have had a good training camp at RG and can be expected to start next to Vollmer. Talking about Scott Chandler, I believe he will be a guy to surprise many people this season when the Patriots soon will be called "Tight End City". This guy is 6'7" and has great hands, I really liked what I saw on a few snaps he was playing. I also liked him at Buffalo, but this time he got the perfect fit at QB. How are the Steelers going to cover a 2-TE-formation including Gronk and Chandler? Ryan Shazier looked stout against the run but terrible in pass coverage. Lawrence Timmons was practicing the first time since weeks on Saturday - he isn't 100%. So the Steelers have a few question marks on their front seven and their secondary? Still garbage. Tom Brady won't have any problems Can they prevent the Patriots from marching downfield? On a cold and rainy night at Foxborough? I don't think so. 35-17 Patriots.

St. Louis Rams +4.5 -110


Unless you don’t expect the Seahawks to win the turnover battle by 2+, this line is a complete joke and is a product of the public opinion on the “mighty” Seahawks and the “poor” Rams. Before you place your money on the Seahawks, please watch both games from last season. The Seahawks offensive line got TOTALLY annihilated by the Rams and it was a shame the Rams didn’t sweep the Seahawks. And DE Chris Long didn’t play in the first game. They were up 21-6 at half in the first game and held the Seahawks to 2 FGs through three quarters at their home when the Seahawks were playing for home field advantage in the playoffs. Then they  totally collapsed with two interceptions and a fumble off which the Seahawks scored their points. The Seahawks didn’t win the game, the Rams gave it away. They made it three times inside the Seahawks 25-yd line. Their defense just dominated the Seahawks. Last season the Rams had the 5th-best scoring defense and the 2nd-best since week 9 – only the Seahawks were better because they played a bunch of college QBs. This defense is nasty and returns 10 starters, just E.J. Gaines is hurt and he is a loss for the Rams, but not necessarily against the Seahawks.

On their already stacked defensive line the Rams added the injury-prone but good pass-rushing DT Nick Fairley to rotate in for Brockers and Donald. Their only weakness on defense last season was giving up big plays here and there because of soft zone coverage and too much blitzing. This year they had another full training camp of learning the complex system of Gregg Williams and it seems like they play more conservative on defense – less blitzes and more man-to-man on the secondary. Because of the rotation with Nick Fairley they will be able to get consistent pressure on opposite QBs without sending too many blitzes. Why am I talking so much about their defense? Because I believe this is a big mismatch for the Seahawks. This offensive line is a mess and Russell Wilson will need atleast a few weeks to get in touch with them. This line was already garbage in 2014 but at the start of this season it gets crazy: Justin Britt and J.R. Sweezy were the worst linemen for Seattle last season and they  line up next to center Drew Nowak in his first NFL start who just learned to play center on a practice squad last season. He played d-line in college. Justin Britt plays a new position, he played LT and RT since college at Missouri and now starts at LG. He is a significant downgrade from James Carpenter last season. These three guys will line up on the interior against Michael Brockers and Aaron Donald. Donald, the guy who made the Pro Bowl in his first season and disrupted the Seahawks for a combined 2 sacks, 2 hits, 6 hurries and another 8 tackles the last two games. And even LT Russell Okung got beaten by a 2nd-string  DE against KC. RT Garry Gilliam, an undrafted free agent in 2014, gets the start at RT. He has one career start and looked poor against the Oakland Raiders. He lines up against a healthy Chris Long. This is going to be pure domination and a very long day for Russell Wilson, because if he somehow finds time to throw, the Rams will not present open receivers because of their man coverage. The Rams were also one of the best teams against tight ends in 2014 – frustration for Jimmy Graham is booked.

What was the difference last year that separated the Rams from being a 10-6 team and instead finishing 6-10? Their QBs Austin Davis and Shaun Hill along with a poor offensive line that couldn’t run-block and was even worse at pass-blocking. That led to a terrible performance on 3rd downs. They changed their right side of the line with two draft picks RG Jamon Brown and RT Rob Havenstein. Jamon Brown looked really good in the pre-season, he was their best lineman so far. Both guys were famous for their run-blocking pre-draft but Brown seems to also be good in pass-blocking. Rob Havenstein was a reason Melvin Gordon was so successful at Wisconsin. He will need atleast a year to learn how to pass-block against NFL defenses, that’s why I expect their o-line to be only slightly better than last season when it comes to pass-blocking but way better in run-blocking. Tre Mason is expected to play. On QB they got Nick Foles – the best PA passer from 2013. His production decreased in 2014 but there were several reasons for it: DeSean Jackson was gone, two important o-liners were sidelined so they couldn’t get their run game going to set up PA situations. And that’s going to be the gameplan for the Rams. Slam the ball against the Seahawks to eat the clock and set up PA situations for Nick Foles. Richard Sherman never only covers the #1 WR, he just sticks on his side so their right side with Cary Williams and Chancellor-backup Deshawn Shead is going to have problems when facing PA. If I were Frank Cignetti, I would try to set up formations where Earl Thomas, who I expect to not be 100% after a half training camp, is forced into the box and Cary Williams / Deshawn Shead covering the right side.

I simply expect the Rams to score in this game, Nick Foles will find some soft spot in the zones. Tavon Austin and Chris Givens will stretch the field which should lead to some opportunities to hit Jared Cook and Kenny Britt on medium-ranged passes. They won’t be successful on every drive because of their offensive line, but I expect Frank Cignetto to gameplan around it with a few screen passes to Mason and Cunningham and such insurance routes on most of the plays. Their defense will take care for solid field positions. It may sound over-confident, but if Nick Foles doesn’t turn the ball over more than once, the Rams are going to win this game and I will gladly take a spread of more than a FG.

Dallas Cowboys -5.5 -109

Sometimes you know you are probably on the right side when you can’t find any logical reasons by bettors to take the opposite. That’s the case for the Cowboys game. Every reason I’ve read to take the Giants has to do with regression methods, a poor Cowboys’ home record, Giants’ recent record at Dallas or the loss of DeMarco Murray. There was no reason so far that tells me I could be on the wrong side. The Cowboys stomped the Giants last season and they could have scored more than 31 points in each game. While the Cowboys will have an improved pass rush with Randy Gregory, Jeremy Mincey and a healthy Demarcus Lawrence, the Giants will have a worse offensive line than last season. With the absence of Will Beatty, Ereck Flowers will play LT instead of RT where the Giants wanted him to develop. Flowers has been terrible in the pre-season. He will line up against Randy Gregory and Flowers already lost that matchup last season when the Hurricanes played the Cornhuskers. Gregory has flashed in pre-season and training camp. Marshall Newhouse will take the RT spot and he was flat out poor when replacing Andre Smith at Cincinnati last year. I expect Mincey and Lawrence to have a good day. Behind this rotation Ben Gardner, who was injured all year, looked terrific in the pre-season, both rushing the passer and stopping the run. On the inside you have DT Tyrone Crawford who was a beast last season and very hopefully Davon Coleman who looks like an upgrade over Nick Hayden. This is just a terrible matchup for the G-Men.
Victor Cruz is unlikely to play and even if he plays, you can’t expect him to be fluid after such a long absence from training. Morris Claiborne and Byron Jones looked better than expected, the Boys will be able to double Odell Beckham. The Giants also won’t be effectively running the ball. Sean Lee is a huge boost for the front seven at the Will and Hitchens is solid against the run.

On the other side it’s an even worse matchup for the Giants. This Dallas offensive line is outstanding. Zach Martin was cleared for practice after his concussion so the offensive line will be at full strength. Martin was handling Aaron Donald in joint practices, LOL. If you have watched last year’s games you have noticed that the Giants didn’t get any pressure on Tony Romo. This time they are missing their best pass rusher in Jason Pierre-Paul. I like the acquisition of Louis Nix, but will he see extended snaps and will the Giants have any shot on the interior against Martin, Frederick and Leary? Heck, no. Tony Romo will have a field day and the Boys will have no trouble running the ball. We don’t need to talk about Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, but Terrance Williams looked improved this season while Cole Beasley was very effective in the slot. The Giants have an awful injury situation on defense as four DBs are already out for the season and they have a weakness at safety with Stevie Brown and Landon Collins. They simply won’t prevent the Boys from scoring. I would be surprised if the Cowboys score less than 30 points. With the big advantage in the trenches I can’t see the Giants coming close to covering 2 TDs in this game and I wouldn’t wonder if Eli turns the ball over twice and gets sacked 3+ times. This looks like a Cowboys win from start to finish. Don’t get fooled by results in recent years. The Cowboys were two levels ahead of the Giants in 2014 and the discrepancy is even bigger this time.


Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 +106

I’ve seen many respected cappers on the Raiders, but I can’t find out how they will be able to match up with one of the best-built teams in week one. The Raiders made the right moves in the off-season and will be a better team than in 2014, but a cover against the Bengals so early in the season is too much to ask for. There are mismatches all over the field and I will start with the one in the trenches: Justin Tuck turned 32 and wasn’t the explosive DE last season. DT Justin Ellis is poor and the loss of DT Antonio Smith hurts the Raiders’ pass-rush from the interior even though Dan Williams is a solid DT and was stout against the run last season. On the right side the Raiders send a young face in DE Mario Edwards who looked like a stud in the pre-season. Khalil Mack said they will have parties in the backfield. This might be true, but not in week one. The Bengals have the 2nd best offensive line in the league and Mario Edwards will line up against the best LT in the game – Andrew Whitworth. Whitworth didn’t allow any sacks in 2014 and there have been 10 games in which he allowed ZERO pressures. He is not going to get beaten by a rookie in his first start. Justin Tuck will struggle to get past Andre Smith and there isn’t anything to be afraid of from the interior. So I expect Andy Dalton to have a clean pocket. And that’s where the Bengals will torch  the Raiders early and often. The Raiders have neither the secondary to cover Marvin Jones, A.J. Green and Mohamed Sanu, nor do they have a strong weakside on the LB corps to not let Tyler Eifert create mismatches. Their three CBs don’t have much of an experience and are learning a new system this year. SS Charles Woodson is 36 and FS Nate Allen can’t be seen as the playmaker IMO. Dalton will have time, Jones and Green will have space. Their favorable running game should be enough to convert short downs. Hue Jackson will call play to expose this secondary. The Bengals should be able to score at will and I expect a booming first half.

What do the Raiders bring to the table offensively? A very solid offensive line that took a little blow in Watson getting hurt and a young explosive WR in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. But the QB is still Derek Carr. Here is a quote of the site Football Perspective: “Take away the 102 worst pass plays of Derek Carr’s 2014 season and he’s nearly average”. The Bengals will have an improved pass rush with DE Michael Johnson back and Derek Carr will be throwing into a good coverage. This defense is a top-10 unit with a lot of depth. I give Leon Hall and Dre Kirkpatrick the edge over 60 minutes and see Derek Carr struggling to move the ball effectively. Will LB rookie Paul Dawson has shown flashes of being one of the most instinctive LBs in the league that’s why I don’t see the Raiders moving the ball on the ground. The Bengals have enough skill on their secondary to play man coverage to send an extra defender into the box. Bottom line this is a very favorable matchup for the Bengals whom I expect to have such a significant lead by the beginning of the fourth quarter to give AJ McCarron some playing time.

Will have more, but that's what I've locked in so far. Waiting on a few injury updates.

           I am not sure about Bengals. Latavius Murray could be a true breakout at RB and Carr could take a step forward. Carr is not that bad as a QB. I think I read something that Raiders are better on defense than many think. I would take Bengals to cover based on their offensive weapons in Hill, Green, Eifert, Giovanni, etc but I am not sure if one really has an edge here.

Suuma, I think you will have a big year this season........BOL...

Well written, very insightful and some nice selections, i love Dallas and the Bengals

haha 'watch both stlouis vs seattle games last year'. WE DID. we remember the nfl apologizing and saying they should have reviewed the play and screwed up. nick foles haha. can't wait to rip on you all year

it WILL be a long day for russ wilson... on offense. "if he finds time to throw" haha. he could find time to knit a sweater out there. all he does is find time. "shame they werent swept' bahahah. if not for a NFL screw up it would have been a sweep for seattle. good run on sentences and terrible copy/pasting though!

Very good write-ups, and while we aren't on the same side on ALL of them, we are thinking similar things on all of them. For example, I like the Seahawks -3, but your reasoning is solid for taking the Rams, therefore making it a non-play for me. I will instead ride with U 41, because I too believe Wilson will be running for his life. 

With you on the Rams as there are some angles that support the Rams, one of which is to fade the Super Bowl loser, game 1.

Quality work....

I love the fact that you spend more time analyzing offensive and defensive lines than the skill positions

NFL capping is more then Running back A should....Quarterback X is....Player Y could... I am high on Murray, Carr and Cooper though.

Good stuff Suuma, I love the cowboys. Something tells me the Steelers keep it close though. You obviously provided great reasons why they won't but I have a gut feeling they do.

Goodluck man

That's good stuff. Good lines you got, too. Agree with all plays. Pittsburgh's defense will get shredded. Edelman catches everything and no answer for Gronk. Blunt should earn some yards setting up the play-action nicely.

bol this season suuma

Good luck Suuma!!

awesome Suuma, agree with the Pats game.. Chandler and Gronk with that 2 TE formation going to provide headaches for a D line that is paper thin

Good luck! 

great write ups my man! However what about Steelers WR Markus Wheaton? I think he may be a future stud and could be in for a big game in Bryant's absence. Just a thought as I didn't see anything about him in your analysis. Great stuff though bro good luck this year.