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suuma's NFL week one «» write-ups guaranteed

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Posted: #151
Good stuff.Sign me up!!
 
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Posted: #152
Quote Originally Posted by TheForbes777:

Been good my man. MLB has been good to me over the summer. Really wasn't going to check back in to covers unless I saw you lurking around.

Taking your approach to full game capping in the NFL starting in the trenches. Will be following closely and vice versa. You're run last season was incredible. I'll never fade, either tail or double up on plays we agree on.



Good to hear that, buddy. Let's start this thing off right
 
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Posted: #153
Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:

cheers for the patriots play,suuma!!!..nice start my good man...i'll ride or die with you for full nfl season...


I wish that it's going to be very profitable for you
 
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Posted: #154
Quote Originally Posted by Bucele:

Nice writing Suuna.  Which sport book do you use? Thanks in advane


Pinnacle
 
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Posted: #155
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Ya really should have put that Dolphins write-up first in the OP. It's the best of the bunch!

What's funny is that in that write-up you say picking the skins is like playing Russian Roulette with 7 bullets. I laughed out loud at that because here in the states, we traditionally think of the RRoulette gun as a six-shooter (from old westerns which were hugely popular at one time). That is, the skins were certain death because you fill all the chambers and still have a bullet to spare.

Funny stuff. Then you changed it to an 8 shooter and it lost all it's effect.  I still got a laugh at what I thought was a good joke.


Yeah I recognized that afterwards, LOL. Everything fine if you were amused. Next joke gonna be better
 
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Posted: #156
St2ee & Bondsman


 
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Posted: #157
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

I don't incorporate rushing yards or predicted rushing yards into any picking scenario that I use. Teams that rush the ball more efficiently than their present opponent  (yards/rush) cover 51% of the time. However, teams that have more rushes in the game than their opponent cover 75% of the time which backs up your idea that it is used as a 4th quarter, kill the clock strategy.  Of course, teams that are behind are chucking the ball all over the place too.  

However, teams that rush for less than 100 yards in a game cover less than 34% of the time. 

Those teams that pass more efficiently (yards per pass) cover about 70% of their games.  After week 4 though, that is negatively correlated as a future prediction tool, as is turnover margin average per game.  In other words, regression to the mean happens.


Those teams had a 5.5-point deficit going into the fourth quarter and had 9.1 rushes less than their opponent after the game. That's exactly the same story.

By efficiency I didn't mean necessarily yards per carry. Running 5 yards on a 3rd and 4 is more efficient than running 5 yards on a 2nd and 8.


 
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Posted: #158
bol this season bud
 
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Posted: #159
Hey Suuma, have you thought about playing the Den/Balt under??.........This Bronco team has a very good defense and more importantly the offense is going to be more run-oriented...putting less pressure on Peyton making plays....plus the Ravens D isn't too shabby also.......Thanks for the thoughts......
 
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Posted: #160
Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:

Hey Suuma, have you thought about playing the Den/Balt under??.........This Bronco team has a very good defense and more importantly the offense is going to be more run-oriented...putting less pressure on Peyton making plays....plus the Ravens D isn't too shabby also.......Thanks for the thoughts......


Since Peyton Manning is at Denver, the average score was 34.9 - 20.7 at Mile High. So I am a little afraid of any Under at Denver. I want to see the new gameplan first. I like the road team more than the total though
 
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Posted: #161
Good luck  summa

I don't have any faith in the Miami pick.... something just isn't right.

Line seems a little fishy to me. ( no pun intended, lol)

Like the write ups and wish you the best this year.

Who do you have for oroy this year?
 
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Posted: #162
Quote Originally Posted by masterkush:

Good luck  summa

I don't have any faith in the Miami pick.... something just isn't right.

Line seems a little fishy to me. ( no pun intended, lol)

Like the write ups and wish you the best this year.

Who do you have for oroy this year?


When considering a FG for home advantage, the Dolphins would be -6 on a neutral field and -9 at home. Doesn't sound fishy to me to be honest. This line opened at -2 at wasn't bet up until the pre-season when people finally realized that this Dolphins team is stacked and the Redskins will need some time to gel. After week 11 last season, this team had the #1 defense in the league.

OROY: Gun to my head - DeVante Parker. Guy is a stud and was my favorite WR in the draft. He will see a lot of red zone targets because of his height.

Wish you a good season and a good start tomorrow
 
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Posted: #163
BOL A GREAT SEASON

 
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Posted: #164
Hey suuma,

Thanks for your insights in this thread, it's always a must-read for me.  I remember you posting a thread a while back about the Packers/Bears game -- you were leaning Bears with GB having Seattle on deck in week 2, and potentially looking past Chicago.  Did you change your mind on this one?

BOL this season, thanks in advance.
 
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Posted: #165
Summa , great read . Good luck this season . 
 
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Posted: #166
Suuma, 5dimes has Jacksonville TT 18.5, would you add it to the card at that #?
 
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Posted: #167
The hottest thing on covers. BOL
 
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Posted: #168
Enjoyed the Cardinals Saints writeup. Great breakdown and I love the pick. Never been a big fan of Palmer. He, Fitzgerald and Peterson are a tad overrated IMO. 

Most importantly the last thing you want when you lose a great defensive coordinator is to see Brees coming week 1. The Cardinals are known for their D but they didn't get many sacks, their big run stuffing NT is gone, and so is Larry Foote who seemed to be always around the ball and was an emotional leader. The D lost their architect, their anchor and their engine. QB and RB off injuries. They had a chance at something big but the window of opportunity slammed shut when Palmer got hurt and I don't know if it will open again very soon with all these holes to fill.

Under 48.5 is kind of tempting. 
Bit of early rust for Palmer/Ellington. Drew Brees without the touchdown machine Graham for the Red zone Offense, and Saints supposedly gonna run more this year. with last year's starting interior guys gone for Arz it's the perfect opportunity to do it, give your shiny new pro bowl center some work. There is some new faces on the line too which in week 1 can mean a few penalties, miscues in blocking leading to lost yards. Meanwhile the Cards will also want to run to limit Palmer's hits and limit the high powered Saints offensive possessions. Cooks will have Peterson on him. He should have a great year with Graham gone he will get loads of targets, but is also just back from an injury.

 
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Posted: #169
Suuma, don't mean to hijack your thread but I've  been reading your posts ..it's evident to me you are a Cowboys fan...you know a lot about their team..I'm a fan as well..I made the trip to Vegas this weekend and pounded the Cowboys to win the SB..and in case you were wondering, I shopped over 10 books..I was expecting closer to 20:1 but nobody was offering anything close...every other book was between 8-12:1 which was crazy surprising to me..

[URL=https://s913.photobucket.com/user/cobewobber/media/Mobile%20Uploads/image_7.jpg.html][IMG]https://i913.photobucket.com/albums/ac333/cobewobber/Mobile%20Uploads/image_7.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

Good luck this season 
 
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Posted: #170
I tried embedding a photo of my betting slip...didn't work...sorry 
 
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Posted: #171

The "HEFF" is dominating the forum.

I remember when he was just little Dougie.  

Do you like Car or Jax to win?  SU

 
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Posted: #172
Quote Originally Posted by erjaq:

Hey suuma,

Thanks for your insights in this thread, it's always a must-read for me.  I remember you posting a thread a while back about the Packers/Bears game -- you were leaning Bears with GB having Seattle on deck in week 2, and potentially looking past Chicago.  Did you change your mind on this one?

BOL this season, thanks in advance.


I am completely staying away from this game. Two many untransparent injuries, too many variables.

Thanks man, have a good start
 
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Posted: #173
Quote Originally Posted by BulletBob15:

Suuma, 5dimes has Jacksonville TT 18.5, would you add it to the card at that #?


Yes I like everything over 17. Locked it in at 19.5.
 
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Posted: #174
Quote Originally Posted by PhillyBrown:

Enjoyed the Cardinals Saints writeup. Great breakdown and I love the pick. Never been a big fan of Palmer. He, Fitzgerald and Peterson are a tad overrated IMO. 

Most importantly the last thing you want when you lose a great defensive coordinator is to see Brees coming week 1. The Cardinals are known for their D but they didn't get many sacks, their big run stuffing NT is gone, and so is Larry Foote who seemed to be always around the ball and was an emotional leader. The D lost their architect, their anchor and their engine. QB and RB off injuries. They had a chance at something big but the window of opportunity slammed shut when Palmer got hurt and I don't know if it will open again very soon with all these holes to fill.

Under 48.5 is kind of tempting. 
Bit of early rust for Palmer/Ellington. Drew Brees without the touchdown machine Graham for the Red zone Offense, and Saints supposedly gonna run more this year. with last year's starting interior guys gone for Arz it's the perfect opportunity to do it, give your shiny new pro bowl center some work. There is some new faces on the line too which in week 1 can mean a few penalties, miscues in blocking leading to lost yards. Meanwhile the Cards will also want to run to limit Palmer's hits and limit the high powered Saints offensive possessions. Cooks will have Peterson on him. He should have a great year with Graham gone he will get loads of targets, but is also just back from an injury.



Great stuff!!! Hope you join the discussions in the future
 
 
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Posted: #175
Quote Originally Posted by NoCashMcgraff:

Suuma, don't mean to hijack your thread but I've  been reading your posts ..it's evident to me you are a Cowboys fan...you know a lot about their team..I'm a fan as well..I made the trip to Vegas this weekend and pounded the Cowboys to win the SB..and in case you were wondering, I shopped over 10 books..I was expecting closer to 20:1 but nobody was offering anything close...every other book was between 8-12:1 which was crazy surprising to me..

[URL=https://s913.photobucket.com/user/cobewobber/media/Mobile%20Uploads/image_7.jpg.html][IMG]https://i913.photobucket.com/albums/ac333/cobewobber/Mobile%20Uploads/image_7.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

Good luck this season 


I am not a Cowboys fan at all, I am a Jets fan. I think the Cowboys have a very good shot at making the Super Bowl this season. They are one of the best-built teams overall and many people are underestimating them, especially their defense which will be stellar come week 5. If the Dez-catch would have been ruled complete, they would have made the Super Bowl, no doubt about it.

Have a great season and good luck on your future pick
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